West African Elections: There's too Much at Stake
Richard Atwood, Richard Moncrieff
| 29 Oct 2010
By a coincidence of delayed timetables, neighbouring West African countries Guinea and Cote d’Ivoire are likely to go to the polls on consecutive Sundays, starting in Cote d’Ivoire on the 31st. Here, the elections are five years late. Neither Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent president, nor the rebel force in the north have, up to now, felt any incentive, nor sufficient pressure, to shift ground and make the elections possible. All sides have hidden behind the pretext of technical difficulties.
In Guinea, after a relatively successful first round, the fight for power between the two remaining presidential candidates, Alpha Condé and Cellou Diallo, appears to leave little room for compromise. With the run-off delayed, fears of manipulation abound, and politicized ethnic tensions have led to clashes between party supporters, and between party supporters and the security forces. Given the history of both countries, each having known only three presidents in 50 years, there are good grounds for contestants to believe that if they lose they, and perhaps their whole community, may be excluded from power for a generation.
In both these countries, delays have raised the spectre of civil conflict, but so has the prospect of finally holding the polls. Why is this so? The feverish atmosphere flows partly from people’s hopes, the belief that democracy can really work this time and the desire to be vigilant against spoilers. But the answer also lies at elite level – in countries where economic opportunity is overwhelmingly dependent on official office, the stakes are simply too high. Power brings a whole series of privileges which leaders of opposition parties see none of. To this is added the opportunities for patronage, and in some cases the chance to avoid prison.
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