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Homepage > Publication Type > CrisisWatch > CrisisWatch N°52

CrisisWatch N°52

  |  (01 Dec 2007)

Conflict Risk Alerts

Conflict Resolution Opportunities

    Deteriorated Situations

    Improved Situations

    Ten actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in November 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch, released today.

    In Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf's impositon of martial law came as the Supreme Court was set to rule on the legitimacy of his 6 October re-election and was followed by a heavy crackdown on dissent. Thousands of opposition supporters were detained and the political crisis continues despite Musharraf’s resignation as army chief on 28 November. Prospects for negotiation between LTTE rebels and the Sri Lankan government deteriorated this month when a government air strike killed the LTTE’s principal interlocutor.

    Georgia's President Saakashvili declared a state of emergency on 7 November in response to major anti-government protests calling for his resignation and for early elections; over 500 were injured in a brutal police crackdown that followed. A fresh wave of violence hit the north Caucasus republics of Dagestan and Ingushetia ahead of Russia’s December elections.

    In Somalia, violence escalated in Mogadishu with scores killed in clashes after insurgents dragged the bodies of Ethiopian soldiers through the streets. Heavy fighting erupted in eastern Chad between two rebel groups and the military, marking the abandonment of the October peace agreement between the government and four rebel groups.

    The situation also deteriorated in Bolivia, Cameroon, Nigeria and Venezuela.

    The situation improved in Israel/Occupied Territories, Iraq and Sierra Leone in November.

    For December 2007, CrisisWatch identifies DR Congo and Bolivia as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. An escalation of violence is feared in North Kivu between rebels loyal to General Laurent Nkunda and government troops, while in Bolivia, the deadlock between supporters of President Morales and the opposition appears likely to harden with the prospect for increased violence.


    Deteriorated Situations
    Bolivia, Cameroon, Chad, Georgia, Nigeria, North Caucausus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Venezuela

    Improved Situations
    Israel/Occupied Territories, Iraq, Sierra Leone

    Unchanged Situations
    Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Northern Ireland (UK), North Korea, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia , Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Taiwan Strait, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe


    Conflict Risk Alert
    DR Congo

    *NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators – up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities – are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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