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Homepage > Publication Type > CrisisWatch > CrisisWatch N°95

CrisisWatch N°95

  |  (01 Jul 2011)

Conflict Risk Alerts

Conflict Resolution Opportunities

    Deteriorated Situations

    Improved Situations

      Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) moved into North Sudan's South Kordofan state capital Kadugli at the start of the month, triggering large-scale fighting with Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) units from the region. The UN reported heavy bombardment of villages by the SAF, widespread civilian casualties and at least 73,000 people forced to flee. It also accused the government of blocking aid deliveries and intimidating peacekeepers.

      Violence spilled over into South Sudan, with several villages bombed by the North. On 28 June the government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (North) signed an agreement on political and security arrangements for South Kordofan and Blue Nile states.

      The SAF clashed again with South Sudanese forces around Abyei. According to the UN, nearly 100 civilians have been killed and almost 100,000 displaced in Abyei since early May.

      In Afghanistan, a standoff between parliament and President Hamid Karzai threatens to deepen the country's political crisis. On 23 June a controversial special tribunal set up by Karzai ruled that the victories of 62 MPs in last September's parliamentary elections should be reversed due to fraud. Critics see this as a move by Karzai to fill the legislature with his own supporters. Parliament responded with votes of no confidence in several Supreme Court judges and pressed for the Attorney-General's resignation.

      In the same month that U.S. President Barack Obama announced plans to withdraw 33,000 U.S. troops by September 2012, the Taliban struck in the heart of Kabul with an assault on the Intercontinental Hotel on 29 June that left 19 dead, including eight civilians.

      Myanmar/Burma  saw its worst clashes since 2009, as fighting broke out between government forces and the Kachin ceasefire group. Tens of thousands have been displaced and some 20 reportedly killed.

      In Mexico, a number of incidents highlighted the deterioration in security around Monterrey, the country's second city, industrial hub and capital of Nuevo León state. On a single day, 15 June, some 33 people were killed in drug-related violence, including two bodyguards of Nuevo León's governor Rodrigo Medina. Almost 800 people have been killed in Monterrey this year, already topping the total death toll for 2010: an alarming development given the region was considered just a few years ago a relatively violence-free model for Mexico.

      In Venezuela, speculation about President Hugo Chávez's health intensified, leading to infighting within his ruling PSUV party and highlighting the country's lack of alternative leadership. Having been largely absent from the public since a 10 June medical operation in Cuba, Chávez at the end of the month confirmed that he had undergone surgery to remove a cancerous tumour, further adding to uncertainty over the country's political future. A series of prison riots in which at least 20 inmates were killed were the latest manifestation of a chronic problem - conditions in the country's penal system - long neglected by the government.

      Proposals by Senegal's ruling party to amend the constitution were condemned by opposition politicians as undemocratic and sparked unprecedented violent protests. President Abdoulaye Wade quickly withdrew the proposals, but criticism continues over his controversial plans to run for a third term in 2012. Further unrest at the end of the month, sparked by prolonged power cuts, saw angry protesters attack government buildings in two cities.

      June 2011 TRENDS

      Deteriorated Situations
      Afghanistan, Mexico, Myanmar/Burma, Senegal, Sudan (North), Sudan (South), Venezuela

      Improved Situations

      Unchanged Situations
      Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

      July 2011 OUTLOOK

      Conflict Risk Alert

      Conflict Resolution Opportunity

      *NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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