CrisisWatch N°97

  |  (01 Sep 2011)

Anti-regime protests continued across Syria despite increased crackdowns on the major flashpoint cities. Security forces, including tanks, snipers and navy gunboats were mobilised against protests in Latakia, Daraa, Damascus, Homs, Deir el-Zour and elsewhere. Over two thousand deaths have been reported since the unrest erupted in mid-March.

The UN Human Rights Commissioner recommended that the Security Council consider referring the situation to the International Criminal Court on the basis of possible crimes against humanity. The international community condemned the violence, with the U.S. and EU calling for President Bashar Assad to step down.

The month saw a breakthrough in Libya, where rebels have gained control of most of the west of the country. They seized key towns including Zlitan and Zawiya, took most of Tripoli on 21 August and launched an offensive towards the remaining regime stronghold of Sirte. The Transitional National Council reported hundreds killed during the battle for Tripoli. Evidence suggesting mass executions by pro-regime forces also surfaced.

In Turkey the Kurdish PKK rebel group launched a wave of attacks against security forces in the southeast of the country, killing some 30 security personnel over the month. In retaliation the Turkish military bombarded PKK bases in northern Iraq, claiming it killed more than 150 rebels. The government has vowed a hard line, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saying “The time for words is over. Now is the time for actions”.

The situation remains tense in the north of Kosovo after the crisis that erupted in late July, when attempts by Kosovo special police to take control of two border gates with Serbia prompted a violent response from local Serbs. Kosovo’s government has promised further actions to enforce its sovereignty in the Serb-held north. Observers fear violent reprisals by local Serbs if Pristina attempts to impose its institutions without prior agreement. Violence in the north could provoke ethnic Albanian reprisals against Serb communities elsewhere in Kosovo. CrisisWatch identifies a conflict risk alert for Kosovo for the coming month.

In Nigeria’s capital Abuja, 23 people were killed and dozens injured in a car bomb attack on the UN headquarters on 26 August. Radical Islamist sect Boko Haram, which is behind an ongoing campaign of attacks on civilians and security forces in the north, claimed responsibility. Officials have named as a suspect a man with alleged links to al-Qaeda. 

Violence escalated still further in Mexico. At least 52 people were killed in an arson attack on a casino in Monterrey on 25 August. Five suspected members of a drug cartel have been arrested in connection with the attack.

August 2011 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations 
Mexico, Nigeria, Syria, Turkey 

Improved Situations
Libya

Unchanged Situations 
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China (internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (internal), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, Somalia, Somaliland, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

September 2011 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert
Kosovo

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
-

July 2011 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Burundi, Guinea, Kosovo, Malawi, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria

Improved Situations
-

Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China (internal), Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Djibouti, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Somaliland, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara , Yemen, Zimbabwe

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*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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