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Homepage > Publication Type > CrisisWatch > CrisisWatch N°108

CrisisWatch N°108

  |  (01 Aug 2012)

Conflict Risk Alerts

Conflict Resolution Opportunities

    Deteriorated Situations

    Improved Situations

      Tajikistan saw fighting erupt around Khorog – the regional capital of the autonomous province of Gorno Badakhshan – following the killing of the regional head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB) General Abdullo Nazarov. The government quickly blamed the murder on fighters loyal to former opposition fighter and Ishkoshim District border-guard chief Tolib Ayombekov, imposing a media-blackout and launching a large-scale security operation which has reportedly caused scores of fatalities, including civilians.

      In Syria, fierce fighting spread to the centres of Aleppo and Damascus for the first time since the beginning of the uprising, prompting government airstrikes and forcing thousands to flee to neighbouring countries. Rebels also extended their control over many rural areas, including several crossings on the Iraqi and Turkish borders. The Assad regime suffered the high-profile assassination of 4 senior security officials in Damascus, in addition to a number of increasingly high-profile defections.

      The transition remained stalled in Mali, despite the return of interim President Traoré and the announcement of new transitional institutions. Prime Minister Modibo Diarra refused to resign and the military junta continues to interfere in the government’s internal affairs. Meanwhile, with the threat of foreign military intervention looming, Islamist hardliners consolidated their grip over the country’s north, ousting Tuareg rebels from their last stronghold in the region.

      Political tensions intensified in Madagascar following the failure of bitter rivals President Rajoelina and former president Ravalomanana to resolve outstanding issues in the elections roadmap ahead of the Southern African Development Community’s 31 July deadline. A failed mutiny by disgruntled soldiers on the outskirts of Antananarivo demonstrated the growing impatience of many with the political process. It appears increasingly likely that elections scheduled for November will be delayed.

      In India, the north-eastern state of Assam saw renewed bouts of ethnic violence, ending nearly three years of relative calm. Clashes broke out after four Bodo youths were killed, provoking retaliation against neighboring Muslim communities and igniting a spiral of violence which has so far claimed the lives of some 60 people.

      July 2012 TRENDS

      Deteriorated Situations

      India (non-Kashmir), Madagascar, Mali, Syria, Tajikistan

      Improved Situations


      Unchanged Situations

      Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burma/Myanmar, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Malawi, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaidjan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, South Sudan, Sudan, Thailand, Timor Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

      August 2012 OUTLOOK

      Conflict Risk Alert


      Conflict Resolution Opportunity


      *NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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