CrisisWatch N°112

  |  (01 Dec 2012)

In the Democratic Republic of Congo’s east, M23 rebels launched an offensive against the national army, breaking a tenuous ceasefire agreed in August. After several days of fighting they captured the key cities of Goma and Sake in North Kivu. Thousands of civilians fled their homes. A UN Panel of Experts report confirmed continuing support for the rebels from neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda. Following a reported agreement with regional leaders, M23 rebels appear now to be withdrawing from Goma.

In Egypt President Mohammed Morsi’s controversial constitutional declaration on 22 November temporarily granted him greater powers, including immunity from judicial review, until a new constitution comes into force. The move triggered fresh protests, and pro-Morsi counter-protests, across the country, some of which turned violent. Morsi justified the declaration as necessary to prevent Mubarak-era judges from sabotaging the country’s transition. His opponents condemned it as a power-grab. The Constituent Assembly approved a draft constitution at the end of the month, after more non-Islamists withdrew from the body. Discontent about the draft’s content and its rushed completion further fuelled protests. The month’s developments have deepened polarisation between supporters and opponents of Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood. Both camps took to the streets again today.

November 2012 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations

DR Congo, Egypt

Improved Situations

-

Unchanged Situations

Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China/Japan, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, Somaliland, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

December 2012 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert

-

Conflict Resolution Opportunity

-

---

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.