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Liberia

  |  1 Oct 2012

Unchanged

UN peacekeeping force (UNMIL) 21 Sept expressed serious concern over reported “mercenary” activities at Grand Gedeh County refugee camps, 20 Sept transferred 3 combat helicopters to Liberia-Côte d’Ivoire border. UNSC 17 Sept extended UNMIL mission to Sept 2013, authorised troop reduction, police increase. Cross-border illegal activities, insecurity continued along border with CDI: court 11 Sept charged 6 Ivorians with murder, mercenary activities, rape, arson, illegal possession of firearms, theft; Liberia/CDI 14 Sept partially reopened border. UNSG Ban 11 Sept said govt “lacks resolve to stamp out blood-diamond trade”, USAID 13 Sept threatened to stop funding Kimberley Process.

Mali

  |  1 Oct 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Security situation continued to deteriorate, prompting fears of renewed conflict. President Traoré 4 Sept formally requested ECOWAS military intervention to secure transitional institutions, reclaim north; ECOWAS, transitional govt 23 Sept agreed to deploy 3,300-strong force. Demonstrators in Bamako 28-29 Sept protested against foreign intervention; international community remained divided on military intervention at UN special session on Mali 26 Sept. Security forces 8 Sept killed 16 unarmed Muslim preachers in Diabali; Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) swore to take revenge. MUJAO 1 Sept took Douentza town in central region Segou, sparking fears UNESCO-listed city Jenné could be next; 2 Sept executed Algerian diplomat Tahar Touati kidnapped in Gao (see Algeria). Human Rights Watch accused Islamists in north of becoming “increasingly repressive” in enforcement of Sharia. Islamists 15 Sept destroyed Cheikh el-Kébir mausoleum 330km north of Gao. AQIM leader Nabil Makloufi, in charge of north Mali/Sahara region, killed 8 Sept in car accident between Gao-Timbuktu. ICC Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda early Sept said mission sent to investigates war crimes/crimes against humanity. Military coup leader Captain Sanogo 26 Sept promoted to Commander; same day shoot-out in Bamako police barracks between officers reportedly upset at colleagues perceived as too close to junta injured at least 2. 

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

Army Chief of Staff António Indjai 22 Aug said forces loyal to ousted PM Carlos Gomes Júnior preparing putsch sparking fears of counter-coup. Diplomatic standoff continued as Community of Portuguese Language Countries, FRENAGOLPE reiterated demands for return to constitutional order; Gomes Jr 3 Aug called for multinational force to be deployed under UN aegis to “avoid ECOWAS blunders”. U.S. Sec State Clinton 1 Aug said country collapsing, drug-trafficking increasing; transition PM Rui Duarte Barros 13 Aug denied claim. Transitional President Nhamadjo 26 Aug sacked Attorney General Edmundo Mendes, replaced him with Abdú Mané, 12 Aug recalled ambassadors to Portugal, France, Dakar, EU and UN. National Youth and Population Forum 16 Aug expressed concern over presence of ECOWAS troops (ECOMIB) in Bissau. UNIOGBIS head Joseph Mutaboba 23 Aug reiterated need for inclusive dialogue, return to constitutional order, said any request for multinational force must come from govt. FM Faustino Fudut Imbali said FAGB troops to participate in operations in Mali.

Mali

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

ECOWAS military chiefs 16 Aug agreed to send high-level political mission to Mali, Algeria, Mauritania to “facilitate” deployment/operations of 3,000-strong ECOWAS Mission in Mali (MICEMA); several countries including Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso and Nigeria pledged to contribute troops. ECOWAS 22 Aug urged govt to “re-establish territorial integrity”. UNSC 12 Aug called on military to refrain from interfering in political process, 10 Aug encouraged appointment of unity govt, expeditious holding of elections, expressed concern over increased terrorist threat, abuses. Negotiations over unity govt continued; 33 ministers appointed to date, including figures from previous regime; increasing worries over “Islamisation trend” following 21 Aug creation of religious affairs ministry. Burkinabé mediation team 7 Aug visited Gao, Kidal to meet MUJAO, Ansar Dine respectively. 6 convicted 28 Aug of May attack on interim President Traoré. Tensions within army continued as green berets loyal to junta leader Sanogo 2 Aug arrested elite red beret members loyal to ousted President Touré. MUJAO 5 Aug violently dispersed youth demonstrating in Gao against MUJAO intention to chop off suspected thief’s hand, 10 Aug declared itself in charge of imposing Sharia in Gao, 22 Aug announced banning of “profane music”. Niafunké residents protested mid-month against MNLA/Ansar-Dine rebels accused of setting up extortion rackets, restrictions on freedom, at least 2 injured. ICC team 31 Aug arrived to investigate possible war crimes.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Sep 2012

Deteriorated

Month saw violence across country: 4 killed in 4-5 Aug raids on Yopougon district police precinct; 6 killed in 6 Aug assault on Akouédo military camp; 5 killed in 15-16 Aug attacks on military camp, prison in Dabou, 113 inmates escaped; 12-13 Aug attacks on 2 military outposts in Toulépleu area near Liberia killed 1, Liberian security forces 15 Aug said 6 suspects arrested; 4 killed in 25 Aug security forces clash with gunmen in Grand-Lahou. Military prosecutor 30 Aug said 73 detained over attacks. Pro-govt newspapers accused Ivoirian Popular Front (FPI) of orchestrating attacks; FPI denied allegations, 22 Aug accused govt of orchestrating 18 Aug raid on FPI HQ that left 2 injured, 19 Aug looting of pro-Gbagbo newspaper offices. Authorities 18 Aug arrested FPI deputy Sec Gen Alphonse Douati; court 31 Aug sentenced Sec Gen Laurent Akoun, arrested 26 Aug, to 6 months in jail for “disturbing public order”. National Commission of Inquiry (CNE) 8 Aug released findings of investigation into 2010-2011 post-electoral violence, said govt forces responsible for 700 deaths, pro-Gbagbo forces 1,400. Defence Minister Koffi Koffi 21 Aug said army will begin combing Peko mountain area to root out remaining insurgents. Govt requested extradition of former Gbagbo spokesman Justin Koné Katinan for alleged crimes as budget minister, suspected role in June 2011 coup attempt, following 24 Aug arrest in Ghana. ICC 3 Aug announced new hearing postponement for former president Gbagbo, reportedly due to health concerns.

Guinea

  |  1 Sep 2012

Deteriorated

Security forces, protesters taking part in unauthorised opposition demonstration clashed 27 Aug, police fired tear gas into home of opposition leader Cellou Diallo; opposition announced withdrawal from all state institutions. At least 6 killed 3-4 Aug when security forces fired on villagers protesting Brazilian mining company Vale’s employment of “outside” ethnic groups in Zogota, near N’Zérékoré, SE. Clashes between police, local traders demonstrating against crime, growing insecurity 7 Aug left at least 1 dead, 5 injured in Siguiri. Authorities 7 Aug launched investigation; opposition leaders 12 Aug called for independent probe; President Condé 13 Aug sacked N’Zérekoré and Siguiri prefects; former transitional PM Jean-Marie Doré 21 Aug accused govt of having “planned and carried out killings in cold blood”.

Nigeria

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

Boko Haram attacks continued throughout month; 19 killed in 5 Aug attack on evangelical temple in Okene, Kogi state; 8 killed 5 Aug in bomb attack on military patrol in Damaturu, Yobe state; suicide bomber killed, several injured 3 Aug in suicide attack targeting religious leader outside Potiskum Mosque, Yobe state. army 21 Aug said 20 Boko Haram militants killed in shoot-out in Maiduguri, Borno state, BH denied reports, said all deaths were civilian. Security forces 11 Aug discovered bomb-making factory in Kano. President Spokesman Reuben Abati said govt in talks with Boko Haram via “back channels”. Navy 26 Aug said 28 oil workers kidnapped 23 Aug in Niger Delta region rescued.

Liberia

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

UNSG Ban 15 Aug said overall security remains “stable albeit fragile”, main security concerns include civil unrest, public disorder, violence against women and girls, further expressed “extreme concern” regarding continued instability along Côte d’Ivoire border. Security forces 14 Aug arrested 6 suspected of 12-13 Aug attacks on military outposts in Côte d’Ivoire.

Guinea

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

President Condé 2 July said polls to be held before year-end, calendar to be established with electoral commission and International Francophonie Organisation. Condé 14/18 July met with opposition leaders Mouctar Diallo, Lansana Kouyaté; National Transitional Council Opposition UFDG leader Cellou Dalein Diallo toured Lower, Middle Guinea; several local authorities tried to impede meetings/rallies. Court 2 July charged number of suspects involved in July 2011 attack against Condé’s house, including UFDG VP Oury Bah (in absentia) and Captain Alpha Oumar Diallo “AOB” but acquitted former Chief of Staff Nouhou Thiam, other military associates of former transitional president General Sékouba Konaté; attorney general lodged appeal against decision.

Liberia

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

Govt early July launched first large-scale military operation since war ended in effort to target mercenaries using country as base to launch raids into Côte d’Ivoire; President Johnson Sirleaf 12 July said could soon reopen border. Opposition party Congress for Democratic Change 7 July convened meeting attended by 5 political parties, including ruling Unity Party, to discuss need to reform electoral laws and constitution to avoid suspicion during elections.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

FRCI, ethnic Malinkés/Dioulas 20 July attacked UN-guarded IDP camp hosting ethnic Guerés, reportedly in response to 17 July killing of 4 Duékoué residents which locals blamed on camp-dwellers; residents claimed camp under control of former pro-Gbagbo militia which frequently robbed neighbouring houses; UNOCI, govt 21 July blamed each other for security lapses. Govt 13 July met with opposition Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), marking first real attempt to resume political dialogue; FPI continued to demand Gbagbo liberation. In second prison break in 2 months, 12 inmates escaped from Abidjan’s main prison 9 July. Court 10 July charged 2 Gbagbo allies on count of genocide, bringing to 8 total number of people charged with genocide.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

Angolan ambassador to UN 2 July said new elections might be acceptable but Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP) at 20 July summit maintained demand for resumption of interrupted electoral process, called for high-level discussion on Guinea-Bissau at UN, barred transitional authorities from attending summit. UNSC 30 July expressed concern over reported increase in drug trafficking since April coup, called for consensual, inclusive and nationally-owned process to restore constitutional order. Body of MP Roberto Cacheu, disappeared since 26 Dec attempted coup, found 28 July near Dingal; ousted PM Carlos Gomes Júnior denied involvement.

Nigeria

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

Boko Haram (BH) 9 July claimed responsibility for attacks on 14 villages around Jos which left scores dead, including several prominent politicians; BH reportedly warned Christians must “embrace Islam” or risk being attacked; other reports claim Fulani herdsmen responsible for attacks. Army 14 July announced “Operation sweep and search” in response; Secretary of Fulani group Mobgal Fulbe Development Association, Ahmed Yandeh, denounced operation as deliberate effort to drive Fulani out of region. Following 25 July killing of 2 Indian expatriates in Maiduguri, security forces 27 July arrested 26 suspected BH militants, killed 2 in separate raid. Suspected BH militants 15 July attacked 3 police stations in Damaturu. Bomb targeting Christian churches in Kogi state exploded 15 July; multiple bombs including suicide-bomb targeting police stations in Sokoto exploded 30 July, at least 5 dead. Rocket fired at Jos Muslim school 16 July killed child; Christian leaders 14 July condemned 13 July attempt to kill key Islamic leader which left 5 dead. Gunmen 19 July killed 5, including policeman, in Kano; 4 Igbo traders killed by armed men same day in Maiduguri; attacks took place day after lifting of state of emergency declared on 31 Dec 2011 in 4 northern states.

Mali

  |  1 Aug 2012

Deteriorated

Interim President Dioncounda Traoré 27 July returned to Bamako, announced creation of new transitional institutions; PM Cheick Modibo Diarra 28 July refused to resign. Islamist rebel groups now control north after 11 July ousting of MNLA Tuaregs from last stronghold; MNLA said no longer seeking independent state but rather “Quebec-style autonomy”. Self-defence groups Liberation Forces of North Mali (FLN), Ganda-Koy/Ganda-Izo militias, Alliance of Timbuktu Region Communities, Armed Forces Against Occupation (FACO) and Circle for Reflection and Action (CRA) 21 July announced creation of new front to liberate North. U.S. Asst Sec for African Affairs Carson 19 July met with transitional authorities, urged authorities to accept ECOWAS intervention force. Transitional govt 9 July announced creation of 1,200-strong elite corps to safeguard institutions. Algerian security forces 23 July killed 20 suspected MUJAO militants near Tinzawaten; MUJAO 19 July freed 3 Western hostages abducted 10 months ago, still holding 4 Algerian hostages. Director of daily L’Indépendent, Saouti Haidara, arrested 12 July.

Guinea

  |  1 Jul 2012

Unchanged

Controversial loan with South African mining company Palladino revealed 3 June, prompted international criticism, early reimbursement of loan. Authorities ordered removal of roadblocks throughout country after riots over 4 June killing of cabdriver by soldier at Mamou roadblock. Social Guinean Movement 14 June called on govt to disband electoral commission (CENI) in order to resolve voter registration dispute; opposition parties criticised National Transition Council (CNT) for inaction; CNT president 21 June vowed to participate in CENI reform; opposition called on supporters to observe ‘ghost town day’ 28 June to push for CENI reconstitution, warned electoral commission against resuming voter registration without prior political consensus. Territorial Administration Minister Alhassane Condé 23 June reiterated ban on political demonstrations.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Jul 2012

Unchanged

7 UN peacekeepers, 10 civilians killed 6 June in SW by militias from Liberia; 5 civilians killed 11 June in attacks on Ivorian border villages; UN official 21 June said over 13,000 people in SW have fled homes since attacks; PM Ahousso-Kouadio 19 June blamed “last jolts” of Gbagbo regime. President Ouattara 15 June called for better regional cooperation to tackle insecurity, illicit arms flows. Govt 13 June announced foiled coup plot by suspected Gbagbo loyalists following rumours Gbagbo could be granted temporary release by ICC. Ex-Gbagbo ally Moïse Lida Kouassi arrested 7 June in Togo. 

Mali

  |  1 Jul 2012

Unchanged

Support and follow-up group meeting in Abidjan 7 June demanded immediate dissolution of military junta. ECOWAS, AU 14 June called for UN military intervention; UNSC 18 June said willing to discuss backing of African intervention force. Following failure of negotiations MNLA, Ansar Dine clashed 7-8 June near Kidal, 13 June near Timbuktu. MNLA 27 June lost Gao HQ to MUJAO, Timbuktu base 29 June to Ansar Dine. Ansar Dine 18 June met with Burkina Faso president and regional mediator Blaise Compaoré, agreed to talks on crisis, 30 June destroyed several mausoleums in Timbuktu. Govt 9 June announced creation of committee for army reform incorporating junta elements.

Nigeria

  |  1 Jul 2012

Unchanged

Over 100 killed 17-19 June in Kaduna state and Damaturu city: at least 40 killed in Damaturu firefight between suspected Boko Haram (BH) and soldiers 18 June; BH attack on 3 churches in Kaduna state 17 June killed at least 16, sparked reprisals, sectarian clashes leaving scores dead; police 26 June killed at least 17 suspected BH in Kano shoot-out. Additional BH attacks on churches, police in North continued throughout month, dozens killed. Security forces 30 June clashed with BH in Damaturu. Gunmen 29 June killed 5 policemen in Adamawa state. 40 inmates freed 24 June in BH raid on Yobo state prison. President Jonathan 22 June sacked security adviser Owoye Azazi, Defence Minister Bello Mohammed. Suspected armed robbers 11 June raided villages in northern Zamfara state, at least 27 killed.

Liberia

  |  1 Jul 2012

Unchanged

President Johnson Sirleaf 9 June closed border with Côte d’Ivoire, 14 June said working with Côte d’Ivoire President Ouattara to deal with deadly border attacks. Govt 14 June announced orders to arrest 10 Liberians and Ivorians in connection with attacks; court 21 June ordered extradition of 41 Ivorians for suspected role in 2011 post-election violence.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Jul 2012

600-strong ECOWAS mission deployed as Angola 6-10 June withdrew MISSANG troops. Chief of staff António Indjai 6 June accused Angola of funding destabilisation attempts in G-B. Tension between ECOWAS and CPLP paralysed 7 June meeting of International Contact Group on G-B. Transition authorities excluded from 20 July CPLP meeting in Maputo, 21 June released Rear Admiral Bubo Na Tchuto arrested for failed 26 Dec 2011 coup.

Mali

  |  1 Jun 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

ECOWAS refused to accept decision by convention of pro-junta associations and parties naming Captain Sanogo as interim president at end of 40-day transition period prompting pro-junta demonstrators to storm presidential palace 21 May, wounding interim President Traoré; ECOWAS reached deal giving Sanogo status of ex-president in exchange for his acceptance of Traoré as interim president for one year. Algeria 1 May launched airstrike against Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) convoy near Tinzawaten, killed 20. New armed group, Republican Movement for Restoration of Azawad (MRRA), reportedly formed 19 May, composed of Songhai, Fulani, Tuareg and Arabs; stated aim to recover Azawad from rebels. MNLA spokesman 1 June said negotiations with Islamist militant rebel group Ansar Dine to establish Azawad Republic failed. AQIM/Ansar Dine started enforcing Sharia in Timbuktu, attacked holy Muslim Sufi site; foreign, including South Asian, fighters reportedly joined AQIM ranks mid-May. Dispute over land/grazing rights between Fula and Dogon ethnic groups along Burkina Faso border left at least 25 dead 24 May.

Nigeria

  |  1 Jun 2012

Unchanged

Security forces clashed with Boko Haram (BH) throughout month; 6 May shootout in Kano left 4 BH members dead; shootouts 13 May in Borno and Zamfara states left 6 security force officers dead; suspected “BH enclave” in Jos destroyed 19 May. Bomb in Taraba state 30 April killed 11 policemen; govt 22 May foiled separate attempts to bomb police HQ and govt radio station in Abuja. Unknown gunmen 28 May killed 4 traders from mainly Christian Igbo ethnic group in northeastern Nigeria; unclear whether attack carried out by BH. German hostage abducted in Jan killed 30 May during failed rescue operation in Kano; 5 gunmen killed. Gunmen 28 May kidnapped Italian engineer in western state of Kwara.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Jun 2012

Unchanged

Junta, ECOWAS, opposition parties 11 May agreed to nominate Serifo Nhamadjo to preside over 1-year transition; Rui Duarte Barros named PM 16 May. Majority party PAIGC and CPLP strongly criticised ECOWAS for “legitimising coup d’état”. ECOWAS 19 May started deploying 629-strong Burkinabè/Nigerian/Senegalese security force. Angolan official 31 May said departure of MISSANG soldiers expected 2-10 June. UNSC 18 May imposed sanctions on coup leaders, demanded legitimate democratic govt. EU 31 May said does not recognise interim govt, broadened own list of sanctions targets.

Guinea

  |  1 Jun 2012

Unchanged

Thousands of opposition demonstrators 10 May resumed protests over govt refusal to organise transparent, credible elections; dozens of demonstrators, policemen wounded. Govt asked electoral commission to suspend controversial voter registration, 13 May organised “giant meeting” where thousands rallied to show support for ruling party Rally of the Guinea People.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Jun 2012

Unchanged

UNOCI 7 May asked govt to consider “situation in jails as top priority” following 4 May prison escape by 52 inmates, including several pro-Gbagbo hardliners. At least 4 killed 13 May in clashes between security forces and armed gang in Bangolo. Govt 23 May issued 30-day ultimatum calling on all persons illegally holding weapons to voluntarily disarm. Deputy Defence Minister Koffi Koffi 10 May said CDI, Liberia agreed to deploy troops to borders. Govt 19 May banned pro-Gbagbo daily Notre Voie for 5 days following publication of Gbagbo photo labelled “President of Republic deposed by ‘UN-France coalition’”.

Liberia

  |  1 Jun 2012

Unchanged

Govt 28 April launched first of 5 regional justice and security hubs in Gbarnga. Senate 4 May pulled out of joint legislative group set up to probe national oil company NOCAL, review oil production sharing agreements. Special Court for Sierra Leone 30 May sentenced former President Taylor to 50 years in jail for war crimes, crimes against humanity.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 May 2012

Unchanged

President Ouattara 21-24 April visited towns in west for first time since 2010/2011 post-electoral conflict, called for national reconciliation, said will seek solution to conflicts over land tenure. Police early April arrested Rodrigue Dadjé, lawyer of ex-first lady Simone Gbagbo, charged him with threatening national security, intention to start rebellion. Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) Secretary General Laurent Akoun early April said FPI ready for dialogue with govt.

Guinea

  |  1 May 2012

Unchanged

Future ICC Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda 5 April visited Conakry, said ICC will prosecute those responsible for Sept 2009 massacre if govt fails. Opposition leader Cellou Diallo 2-8 April visited Paris, said Guinea not ready for 8 July elections. Major civil society coalition 13 April called for removal of controversial CENI president. Govt repression of opposition protests at controversial preparations for legislative elections continued; police 19 April fired tear gas at women demonstrating outside CENI HQ, 20 injured. President Condé 27 April announced postponement of elections. 

Mali

  |  1 May 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Following widespread condemnation of March military coup, military junta 7 April transferred power to civilian govt headed by Parliament Speaker Traoré in exchange for amnesty for mutineers; confusion over who is in charge as junta mid-April arrested several high-level political figures, continued to exercise control over state media. Soldiers loyal to deposed President Touré 30 April attempted counter-coup, foiled by junta soldiers; several dead. ECOWAS 27 April announced deployment of 3,000 troops, one-year transition instead of 40 days initially agreed with junta; Captain Sanogo 29 April said violation of agreement; fears of further unrest at Kati military garrison. National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) 5 April announced end of military operations, 6 April proclaimed liberation of Azawad state; AU rejected declaration of independence; Traoré 12 April threatened to launch “total war” on Tuareg rebels and Islamist militias in North, hundreds of northern youths gathered in Bamako 6 April to demand weapons to fight rebellion; UNSG Ban 16 April said urgent action needed to address “cascading crisis in Sahel”. Following fall of Timbuktu to Islamist militia Ansar Dine and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) early April, newly-formed National Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLNA) Arab militia 27 April said it took Timbuktu but 29 April exited city following threat of “bloodbath” by AQIM. Algerian army 29 April launched airstrike against AQIM splinter group Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) responsible for 5 April abduction of Algerian diplomats in Gao, 20 dead.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 May 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Soldiers 12 April staged military coup, detained for over 2 weeks interim President Pereira and PM Gomes Júnior, widely expected to win presidential run-off originally scheduled 29 April; said acted to avert “Angolan aggression” by MISSANG forces stationed in Bissau. ECOWAS 27 April gave junta 72-hour ultimatum to accept 600-strong force, 12-month transition to civilian rule. CPLP 14 April demanded international intervention; Brazil said willing to lead stabilisation force. Following failure of negotiations with Chief of Staff António Indjai, ECOWAS 30 April imposed sanctions, threatened use of force to restore civilian rule. Portugal 15 April sent 2 navy ships, military plane to Cape Verde in preparation to evacuate nationals. Junta 16 April announced creation of transitional institutions to carry out 2-year roadmap to elections, proposed Parliament Speaker Serifo Nhamadjo as president; Nhamadjo rejected offer.

Liberia

  |  1 May 2012

Unchanged

Special Court for Sierra Leone 26 April found former President Taylor guilty of war crimes, crimes against humanity, provoking mixed reactions in Monrovia as many still loyal to Taylor, others still awaiting justice for Liberia civil war crimes. Robert Sirleaf, son of President Sirleaf, 2 April filed $11 mn libel suit against daily The Independent following accusations of nepotism over appointment as chairman of national oil company NOCAL by President Sirleaf late March.

Nigeria

  |  1 May 2012

Unchanged

Boko Haram attacks continued: 7 killed in 4 April attack on market, Maiduguri; 38 killed 7 April in suicide car bomb attack, Kaduna; 7 killed 18 April in spate of attacks across north; suicide bomb attacks on This Day newspaper offices in Abuja, Kaduna 26 April left 9 dead; suspected Boko Haram attacks at Kano University, Maiduguri church 29 April left at least 21 dead. Boko Haram 12 April released video threatening to topple President Jonathan within 3 months. Intercommunal tensions in Plateau state continued; 2 attacks near Jos 24 April left 5 dead, 10 injured; 30 April attack by ethnic Fulani herdsmen on ethnic Christian Berom left 2 dead, several wounded. U.S. 18 April warned Boko Haram planning attacks on Abuja, including major hotels. Movement for Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) claimed responsibility for 13 April attack on Italian ENI oil installations in Bayelsa State, 14 April threatened to attack South African investments in Niger Delta, sparking fears of group’s resurgence.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Apr 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Elections held 18 March in calm, but opposition candidates denounced fraud and rejected results in advance of vote. UNSG Ban 19 March praised peaceful election, but urged calm; international observers, ECOWAS, CPLP said poll free and fair. Fears of violence sparked by 18 March killing of former military intelligence chief Colonel Samba Djaló; ex-army Chief of Staff Zamora Induta fled to EU compound 22 March. Electoral commission 21 March said PM Carlos Gomes Júnior won first round with 49%, will face former President Yalá in 22 April run-off. 5 main challengers to Gomes, including Yalá, withdrew from race alleging large-scale fraud and irregularities; submitted evidence to electoral commission.

Mali

  |  1 Apr 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

President Touré overthrown in army coup 22 March, constitution suspended; coup followed 20-21 March mutiny in Kati garrison, Feb-March protests demanding better weapons for soldiers fighting rebellion in north; Captain Amadou Sanogo named head of military junta. AU, EU condemned coup, World Bank suspended aid; political parties 24 March ordered renegade soldiers back to barracks; ECOWAS 27 March suspended Mali, heads of state visit initially scheduled 29 March postponed following pro-junta protests in Bamako. Sanogo 1 April said constitution would be reinstated. MNLA Tuareg rebels 10-11 March took strategic town of Tessalit, 31 March took Kidal, 30 March took key garrison town of Gao aided by new rebel group Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), 1 April took Timbuktu; army activated Peul/Songhai self-defence militias Ganda Koy, Ganda Izo to fight rebels; Ganda Izo leader Amadou Diallo and dozen fighters killed in Tinahama late March. Govt troops reportedly beaten back at Tinzawaten, Aguelhok, Kidal by Islamist rebel group Ansar Dine, headed by 1990 Tuareg rebellion leader Iyad ag Ghaly and accused of links with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). MNLA mid-March distanced itself from Ansar Dine, said only seeking independence of Azawad, following 11 March video showing Ansar Dine assault on Aguelhok, Ansar Dine declaration of intent to impose Sharia law. Mauritanian air force 11 March launched air strike against suspected AQIM convoy near Timbuktu following exchange of hostages 10 March, 2 civilians injured.

Nigeria

  |  1 Apr 2012

Unchanged

Boko Haram attacks continued; 7 killed 7 March in attack on police station, Ashaka; 1 killed 9 March in attack on police station, Kano; 21 killed 11 March in attack on Jos church; 5 killed 12 March in attack on military patrol, Mubi; 2 killed 8 March in failed European hostage rescue bid, Birnin Kebbi; 2 Boko Haram killed in suicide car blast 24 March, Maiduguri; 9 killed 21 March in shootout with security forces, Kano; 6 killed 25 March in suicide blast during raid, Maiduguri; 1 policeman killed 28 March, Maiduguri; several injured 28 March in police station bombing, Yobe; 4 killed 30 March in Boko Haram bank robbery, Kano; 10 killed in police in shootout with Boko Haram 31 March, Kogi. Govt reportedly in indirect talks with group to end violence; Boko Haram 16 March reportedly said may declare 3-month truce. 16 killed 6 March in clashes between Fulani and ethnic Tiv in east; clashes between Hausa and Yoruba in Ekiti 22 March injured at least 20. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb (AQIM) 23 March announced German hostage being held, demanded exchange for “Muslim woman” held in Germany.

  • “Nigeria, Islamist group Boko Haram in indirect talks”, AFP, 16 March 2012.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Apr 2012

Unchanged

President Ouattara 13 March declared himself defence minister in cabinet reshuffle, named Jeannot Ahoussou Kouadio PM as part of pre-election deal with Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire; outgoing PM Soro named National Assembly president in controversial vote. ICC investigators 14 March announced possible discovery of mass grave near Duékoué where fighters loyal to Ouattara suspected of killing hundreds during post-electoral conflict.

Guinea

  |  1 Apr 2012

Unchanged

Following failure of political dialogue over organisation of legislative elections, electoral commission (CENI) 1 March announced poll to be held 8 July. Opposition rally in Conakry 17 March calling for free and fair elections, CENI reform, initially banned and then repressed, dozens detained; arrestees soon released and new opposition rally held peacefully 24 March.

Liberia

  |  1 Apr 2012

Unchanged

Head of Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) party, Winston Tubman, 5 March retired following expulsion from CDC last month, replaced by former football star George Weah. UNMIL 6 March confirmed reduction of troops from 15,000 to 8,000. Clashes between Ivorian refugees and local population in Grand Gedeh 20 March left over 500 seriously wounded.

Guinea

  |  1 Mar 2012

Unchanged

Mediation by David Gomez ended 21 Feb; dialogue between govt and opposition resumed, Minister of Territorial Administration said elections scheduled for May, opposition said it will prevent polls if better guarantees not given. Judges 1 Feb announced indictment of Colonel Moussa Camara for role in Sept 2009 Conakry massacre, 17 Feb initiated prosecution of 50 civilians, soldiers accused of participating in 19 July attack on President Condé’s residence.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Mar 2012

Unchanged

In controversial vote PAIGC 4 Feb named PM Carlos Gomes Júnior as candidate to contest election scheduled 18 March; 13 other candidates announced intention to run, including former President Yalá. EU 17 Feb announced elections observer mission.

Nigeria

  |  1 Mar 2012

Unchanged

Boko Haram launched series of attacks throughout month in Kaduna, Suleja, Borno, Kano, targeting security personnel, churches. 30 civilians reportedly killed in 20 Feb Boko Haram attack at Maiduguri market, army killed 8 attackers, deactivated bombs. Suspected Boko Haram gunmen 15 Feb stormed Kogi state prison, freeing 119 inmates; over 14 killed in multiple Boko Haram explosions, prison attack in Gombe 25 Feb. At least 2 killed in 26 Feb reprisals following death of 3 in bombing of church HQ, Jos, Plateau. Boko Haram spokesperson Abul Qaqa captured 1 Feb, reportedly revealed sect’s foreign backing. Movement for Emancipation of Niger Delta 5 Feb attacked Italian pipeline in region. Despite fierce criticism over party’s handing of northern insurgency, ruling People’s Democratic Party won 5, 12 Feb elections in northern state of Adamawa, southern state of Bayelsa respectively.

Liberia

  |  1 Mar 2012

Unchanged

Acting UNSRSG Moustapha Soumare 23 Feb expressed concern over reports of  “rebel training” in Grand Gedeh County. Sirleaf-Johnson accused of nepotism following early Feb appointment of sons, relatives to govt.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Mar 2012

Unchanged

Continued concerns over President Ouattara’s lack of control over army (FRCI); at least 3 killed, 20 injured in ethnic clashes between Agni, Malinkés and army members in Arrah 12-13 Feb over continued policing of area by former northern rebels integrated into FRCI; 6 killed in attack by unidentified commandos 21 Feb in western town of Tai. Unknown gunmen 26 Feb shot at Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) convoy near IEC office in Bonon; at least 5 killed. HRW 23 Feb requested 6 month extension of national commission of inquiry investigating 2010-2011 post-election violence. ICC 23 Feb announced extension of temporal mandate to cover crimes committed since 19 Sep 2002.

Mali

  |  1 Mar 2012

Deteriorated

Tuareg rebellion intensified as National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) fighters 7 Feb attacked military outpost in Tinzawaten, 19 Feb attacked Hombori town, leaving 1 dead. Army 10 Feb bombarded rebels in Kidal, 14 Feb bombarded Tessalit; MNLA 29 Feb led assault to take back Tessalit. UN said over 130,000 displaced by rebellion; crisis prompted calls for postponement of presidential election scheduled 29 April. Suspected MNLA alliance with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb confirmed following summary executions of 95 govt fighters in Aguelhok 24 Jan; MNLA reiterated it has no links with terrorist group. Tuareg/Arab populations in South, Bamako fled throughout month as clashes exacerbated intercommunal tensions. France, Algeria early Feb called for immediate ceasefire, dialogue; MNLA refused.

Nigeria

  |  1 Feb 2012

Deteriorated

At least 211 killed 20 Jan in Kano in worst ever Boko Haram bomb attack, targeting police, immigration offices and markets; police late Jan arrested 160 Chadians reportedly suspected of involvement. At least 7 died 22 Jan in Boko Haram bombing of 2 churches, Bauchi state; 11 suspected Boko Haram insurgents killed 28 Jan in checkpoint gun battle, Maiduguri. Boko Haram 2nd in command Umar Kabir, allegedly behind Madalla Christmas bombings, 18 Jan escaped police custody. Following late-Dec state of emergency declaration, President Jonathan 8 Jan claimed Boko Haram sympathizers in govt, security agencies. In response to Boko Haram 1 Jan demand Christian southerners leave North, Niger Delta Indigenes Movement for Radical Change (NDIMRC) 10 Jan issued 21-day ultimatum calling on northerners to leave South. Govt 1 Jan announced complete withdrawal of fuel subsidies, prompting crippling strikes following 117% fuel price increase; govt 16 Jan reduced prices by 30%, deployed soldiers to Lagos and Kano to stop future pro-subsidy protest. Human rights groups 12 Jan petitioned ICC to investigate President Jonathan’s role in alleged killings of over 35 protestors.

Guinea

  |  1 Feb 2012

Unchanged

Political deadlock over legislative elections date continued; ex-Senegalese President and current Head of the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie Abdou Diouf 4-6 Jan held series of high-level meetings in attempt to mediate between opposition and govt. Clashes over repeated power cuts in mining town of Kamsar 16 Jan left 1 dead, 30 injured; 2 opposition UFDG members arrested 25 Jan for reported role in violence.

Mali

  |  1 Feb 2012

Deteriorated

Fears regional spillover from Libyan conflict could spark new Touareg rebellion as National Movement for Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) Touareg rebels reportedly backed by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and fighters who served in Libyan army staged series of attacks mid-late Jan on towns in north/north-east: govt responded by bombarding rebel position in Menaka 17 Jan; army said 45 rebels killed, 2 soldiers dead, 2,300 people fled into Mauritania. AQIM 12 Jan warned France, UK, Holland, Sweden not to attempt rescue operation for hostages in Mali, said seeking peaceful solution. Former PMs Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Modibo Sidibe, and Mountaga Tall, announced candidacy in 29 April presidential poll.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Feb 2012

Unchanged

Increased potential for political instability, civil, military unrest following death of President Sanhá 9 Jan, 26 Dec coup attempt. ECOWAS, UNSG Ban called for peaceful power transfer in accordance with constitution; despite initial rejection by some opposition parties, National Assembly president Raimundo Pereira appointed interim president, election scheduled for 18 March.

Liberia

  |  1 Feb 2012

Unchanged

President Johnson Sirleaf inaugurated 16 Jan for 2nd 6-year term. Attendance of opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) leader Winston Tubman sparked unrest in party ranks; angry CDC youths 15 Jan attempted to attack Tubman at party HQ. Liberian authorities 28 Jan arrested 70 “mercenaries” for alleged involvement in plans to destabilise Côte d’Ivoire.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Feb 2012

Unchanged

Ivorian Popular Front rally in Yopougon attacked 21 Jan by alleged pro-Ouattara youths; 1 killed, dozens injured. President Ouattara 26 Jan met French President Sarkozy, signed agreement reducing French military personnel in country to 300. U.S. Sec State Clinton 17 Jan met Ouattara, reportedly requested PM Guillaume Soro be transferred to ICC to face crimes against humanity charges.

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CrisisWatch N°114

Read the latest edition of CrisisWatch in full here.