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Syria

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Opposition further consolidated foothold in south with seizure of military base near Daraa 3 April, while regime forces mounted successful counter-attacks in Damascus, Homs, 14 April broke 6-month rebel siege of Wadi al-Deif and Hamidiya military compounds outside Maarat al-Numan in north. Fighting intensified in western city Al-Qusayr; Hizbollah fighters from Lebanon reported to be leading Al-Qusayr operation against rebels. Army 11 April launched retaliatory attacks on Sanamein and Ghabagheb villages in Deraa province, accused of harbouring deserters; dozens of civilians reported killed. Regime PM al-Halki survived bomb attack on his convoy in Damascus in which 6 died 29 April. 13 killed by car bomb in central Damascus 30 April. Reports emerged 22 April of several hundred civilians killed in alleged regime massacre SW of Damascus. Rebel armed group Jabhat al-Nusra 10 April refuted reports it had merged with al-Qaeda in Iraq but pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda central. UN set to investigate mounting allegations that regime is using chemical weapons. Rebels 22 April abducted 2 Aleppo archbishops. Opposition Syrian National Coalition (NC) PM Hitto 6 April begun talks to form interim govt; NC 22 April named George Sabra as interim leader. President Assad 16 April offered reduced prison sentences for some detained rebels. UN/Arab League envoy Brahimi 19 April deplored lack of cooperation from regime, urged UNSC action; denied rumours he plans to resign. 5 top UN humanitarian officials issued plea for international aid. U.S. 21 April said will double non-lethal aid for rebels to $250m; EU 22 April eased oil embargo for opposition, remains divided on arms ban.

Syria

  |  1 Apr 2013

Deteriorated

First credible reports emerged of chemical weapons use: govt and rebels accused each other of firing a rocket loaded with chemical agents near Aleppo 19 March; opposition 25 March said govt killed 2, wounded 23 in chemical missile attack on Adra, near Damascus. 49 killed, including key pro-regime cleric, in attack on Damascus mosque 21 March; 20 killed in mortar attack on Damascus University 28 March. President Assad 22 March vowed to “cleanse” Syria of extremism. Rebel advance continued: rebels early March captured northern city Raqqa, their first entire provincial capital, began renewed push into Baba Amr, Homs. In Istanbul Syrian National Coalition (NC) 19 March elected Ghassan Hitto PM for rebel-held areas of Syria; NC leader Moaz al-Khatib resigned 24 March over “lack of help” from international community. At EU summit 15 March France and UK faced opposition to their proposal that EU arms embargo be lifted to allow arming of rebels. Rebel group “Martyrs of Yarmouk” 6 March captured 21 Filipino UN peacekeepers monitoring 1973 Israel-Syria armistice line in Golan, released 9 March. UN 25 March announced temporary withdrawal of some staff from Damascus citing insecurity. Syrian opposition opened embassy in Qatar 27 March, day after assuming Syrian seat at Arab League summit.

Syria

  |  1 Mar 2013

Deteriorated

Month saw violence on part of regime further escalating, with use of Scud missiles, as UN 27 Feb warned of severe rise in refugees and a humanitarian situation “dramatic beyond description”. Rebels continue to consolidate hold on North and East, made several strategic gains. Renewed clashes reported in Aleppo end Feb; Human Rights Watch reported govt ballistic missile strikes in civilian areas killed over 100. Rebels launched new offensive on regime stronghold Damascus. Car bomb 21 Feb killed dozens, injured over 200 in central Damascus near ruling Ba’ath party HQ. Reports emerged of worsening maltreatment and torture of prisoners in govt jails. UN/Arab League Envoy Brahimi 17 Feb, Syrian National Coalition (NC) 22 Feb announced support for NC leader Mouaz Khatib’s Jan initiative for conditional talks with regime; Brahimi called for talks between opposition and “acceptable delegation” from govt; Syrian FM Walid al-Moualem 25 Feb said regime is prepared to talk to armed opposition. EU 19 Feb renewed arms embargo on Syria for further 3 months with amendment allowing more non-lethal and technical support for civilian protection. NC 23 Feb threatened to boycott 28 Feb “Friends of Syria” meeting with Western backers due to lack of international condemnation following govt’s bombardment of Aleppo; rescinded after condemnations issued, Western states promised increased non-lethal aid. NC 22 Feb announced it would establish govt to run rebel “liberated” areas of country. Brahimi’s contract extended to end-2013.

Syria

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Over 80 killed 15 Jan in reported govt missile strike at Aleppo University housing students, people displaced by conflict; over 100 killed same day in Basatin al-Hasawiya, outside Homs, reportedly by forces loyal to President Assad; over 70 bodies found massacred in Aleppo river 29 Jan. UN/Arab League Envoy Brahimi 29 urged UNSC to overcome differences, support plan for political transition, said country “being destroyed”. Following rare visit across conflict lines by UN humanitarian delegation, UN official 21 Jan said conditions “appalling”. President Assad 6 Jan pledged to continue fighting “terrorist” violence but offered national dialogue, constitutional referendum to end crisis; plan roundly rejected, as no indication he would step down as first stage of political transition. Islamist rebels 24 Jan reportedly raided civilian opposition organisations’ HQs in Saraqib. Rebels mid-month clashed with govt-leaning Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) in NE; 11 Jan captured Taftanaz airbase, northern Idlib province. Israeli airstrike on convoy in Syria reportedly carrying weapons to Lebanon 30 Jan. Exile Syrian National Coalition leader Khatib 30 Jan set conditions for opposition’s direct talks with regime representatives; prospect rejected immediately by Syrian National Council component of National Coalition. National Coalition 21 Jan failed to form transitional govt at talks in Istanbul. Over 50 UN member states 14 Jan requested ICC investigation into possible war crimes by both sides; Russia 15 Jan said it would block effort.

Syria

  |  30 Dec 2012

Deteriorated

Violence escalated with rising death tolls and displacement; intense fighting continued in Aleppo, reached new levels in Damascus, where fighting most intense in southern suburbs, particularly Palestinian-dominated Yarmouk where mid-Dec airstrikes and clashes left scores dead and caused mass exodus. Increased violence in Hama province as rebels launched new offensive, gained several towns; regime air strike, among most deadly to date, in Halfaya, Hama province killed dozens 24 Dec; nearly 400 reported killed 29 Dec, including approx 150 bodies found in Deir Baalba, Homs. Govt denied reports regime using Scud missiles. UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria 20 Dec said conflict escalating, becoming increasingly sectarian: video posted 12 Dec showed rebels destroying Shiite mosque in north; up to 200 Alawite civilians killed in Aqrab early Dec. UN 19 Dec increased refugee and IDP projections following significant increase in civilians fleeing Syria. Remainder of “Friends of Syria” group, including U.S., 12 Dec recognised National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, formed Nov, as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people at Morocco conference. U.S. 11 Dec officially designated rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra as terrorist organisation. UN/Arab League Envoy Brahimi met President Assad and opposition in Damascus late Dec, visited Moscow 29 Dec to discuss proposals for ending conflict, expressed strong support for “Geneva plan” based on formation of transitional govt; Assad 26 Dec sent senior diplomat to Moscow to discuss proposals. National Coalition leader Moaz al-Khatib 28 Dec rejected Russia’s invitation for peace talks, demanded Russian apology for its support for Assad; said could meet in Arab country if clear agenda set. Major General Abdelaziz Jassim al-Shalal, head of Syria’s military police, defected 25 Dec.

Syria

  |  1 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Opposition 12 Nov announced break-through formation of National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces following week of talks in Qatar, external pressure. Former Syrian National Council merged into new body; former Damascene imam, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, named leader. 6 Gulf states 12 Nov, France 13 Nov, Turkey 15 Nov, UK 21 Nov, Spain 29 Nov formally recognised coalition as sole legitimate representative of Syrian people. Opposition forces in Aleppo 20 Nov voiced support for coalition day after rejecting it, called for greater representation; Syrian-Kurdish PYD party 20 Nov rejected coalition. Worst violence in months in southern, eastern Damascus rebel strongholds included airstrikes, fierce clashes; dozens killed in 2 car bombs 28 Nov; fighting 29 Nov closed Damascus Airport. Number of strategic gains by rebels, winning control of oil field, hydroelectric dam, several army bases; weapons captured. Rebel Free Syria Army 9 Nov captured Ras al-Ain on Turkish border; army responded with days of intense bombardment, occasionally spilling into Turkey: fighting sparked unprecedented exodus into Turkey. Month saw several incursions into Golan Heights demilitarised zone; Israel sought UN action, in later incidents responded with direct fire. Rebels 7 Nov shelled mainly Alawite Damascus district.

Syria

  |  1 Nov 2012

Unchanged

Fighting between govt and rebels continued with reported death tolls frequently exceeding 100 per day, ongoing internal and external displacement. Ceasefire brokered by UN/Arab League envoy Brahimi for Eid al-Adha festival 26-30 Oct repeatedly broken with extensive fighting across country. Surge in regime airstrikes late Oct; Syrian rights activists claimed 29 Oct worst day yet of regime air raids. Rebels continued attempts to establish “safe zone” in north, 9 Oct recaptured strategic town Maarrat al-Nu’man; battle for nearby Wadi al-Deif base ongoing. As Egyptian “contact group” on Syria appeared to stall, Qatar 15 Oct called for “well-armed” peacekeeping force. Mid-month formation of “committee of wise men” by former Syrian National Council president Ghalioun met with widespread cynicism. At least 30 killed in first reported case of Syrian-Arab rebels exchanging fire with Syrian Kurds in Aleppo 24 Oct; clashes ongoing. Turkish PKK threatened intervention if clashes persist. Reports emerged early Oct of late Sept clash between rival Alawite clans in al-Qardaha, President Assad’s hometown. State TV 30 Oct reported “terrorist” assassination of air force general Abdullah Mahmoud Al-Khalidi; some activists assert regime responsible, claim Khalidi wanted to defect, regime acted in anticipation. Concerns over regional instability exacerbated by ongoing cross-border fire with Turkey (see Turkey).

Syria

  |  1 Oct 2012

Deteriorated

Casualties and displacement continued to rise as fighting between rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Syrian military continued, with regime forces conducting large-scale military operations, bombing raids on opposition-controlled areas. UNHRC-mandated Commission of Inquiry 17 Sept reported regime’s “gross violations of human rights”, said violations significantly increased throughout late Aug, early Sept with indiscriminate attacks against civilians occurring daily; Human Rights Watch 17 Sept accused Syrian opposition groups of committing war crimes including torture and summary execution of prisoners. New UN/Arab League envoy Brahimi met with interlocutors including President Assad throughout month. Egyptian initiative comprising Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey met 17, 27 Sept, cautioned against expectations of quick solution to crisis; Saudi Arabia absent both occasions. Opposition National Co-ordination Body for Democratic Change (NCB) 23 Sept called for regime overthrow at meeting in Damascus attended by Iranian, Russian, Chinese diplomats; stated opposition to violent uprising, foreign military intervention.

Syria

  |  1 Sep 2012

Deteriorated

Month saw scores of civilians killed by clashes between rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) and pro-regime forces fighting for control of Aleppo; govt continued airstrikes against towns in northern Syria. Fighting, shelling continued throughout month in Damascus killing scores. Opposition 26 Aug accused regime of massacre following discovery of some 300 bodies in Daraya; UNSG Ban 27 Aug called for immediate investigation. Newly appointed PM Hijab 6 Aug defected to Jordan; VP Shara 26 Aug denied own defection. Syrian, Jordanian troops 10 Aug clashed along border (see Jordan). UN/Arab League special envoy Kofi Annan resigned 2 Aug; UNSC 16 Aug ended UN observer mission, agreed to set up civilian liaison office; veteran Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi announced as new UN envoy 16 Aug. UNGA 3 Aug passed resolution condemning Syrian govt’s use of heavy weapons, UNSC inaction. UN Human Rights Council report 15 Aug concluded Syrian army, pro-regime militia responsible for March killing of 108 in Houla. FSA 4 Aug announced abduction of some 48 Iranian Shiites, allegedly members of Iranian Revolutionary Guards; Organisation of Islamic Countries 16 Aug suspended Syria.

Syria

  |  1 Aug 2012

Deteriorated

Month saw fierce fighting spread to Aleppo and Damascus, seizure by rebels of border crossings with Turkey and Iraq, thousands fleeing to neighbouring countries. ICRC 15 July declared Syria “non-international armed conflict”. 4 senior officials assassinated in 18 July bombing of national security HQ in Damascus, including top security chief Shawkat, Defence Minister Rajiha, intelligence chief Bekhtyar. Senior defections reported, including close-Assad confidant and Republican Guard Brig Gen Tlass, prominent tribal chief and Syrian Ambassador to Iraq Nawaf Fares. Numerous massacres reported by opposition activists, including some 200 allegedly killed by regime forces in Tremseh. Concern over Syria’s unconventional weapon stockpiles increased: foreign ministry 23 July said chemical weapons to be used only against external aggression; Israel vowed to prevent any transfer to Hizbullah. Russia, China 19 July vetoed UNSC Chapter VII resolution threatening sanctions. UNSC 20 July extended UNSMIS mandate for “final” 30-days, appointed Senegalese Lieutenant General Gaye as new mission head. Kurdish forces reportedly consolidated control over N-E Syria. Kurdish opposition Democratic Union party (PYD), Kurdish National Councils (KNC) mid-month met in Erbil (Iraq) under auspices of Iraqi Kurdish Regional Govt President Barzani, agreed to form Supreme Kurdish Council, popular defence forces.

Syria

  |  1 Jul 2012

Unchanged Risk Alert

Month saw continued insecurity, massacres of civilians: UN/Arab League Envoy Annan 2 June warned of all-out sectarian war; UNSG Ban 8 June said little evidence govt complying with peace plan; UN Peacekeeping head Ladsous 12 June said Syria in civil war; UN Supervision Mission (UNSMIS) 16 June suspended operations due to increased risk to monitors, lack of willingness by parties to seek peaceful transition; President Assad 27 June reported Syria in state of war. Turkey said fighter jet downed 22 June by Syria in international airspace, search and rescue plane shot at 25 June; PM Erdoğan 26 June instructed Turkish army to treat Syrian military units approaching border as threat; NATO SG Rasmussen said NATO stood by Turkey following Article IV consultations. Activists claimed pro-regime militias 31 May executed 13 workers near Qusair, 7 June slaughtered 78 civilians in Mazraat al-Qubair. Regime said 25 men shot by rebels in Darat Izza; 7 executed during attack on pro-govt TV station in Drusha. Heavy shelling of towns by regime continued, including Deraa, Homs; fierce fighting reported 26 June in Damascus between Free Syrian Army, elite Republican Guard. Newly-formed UN Action Group 30 June backed Annan calls for national unity govt. Opposition Syrian National Council 10 June elected Kurdish activist Abdelbaset Sayda as new chairman. President Assad 6 June appointed Agriculture Minister and loyalist Riad Hijab as new PM.

Syria

  |  1 Jun 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Month saw continued violence, fighting despite presence of UN monitors. UN reported 108 killed 25 May in Houla during regime shelling, many summarily executed; residents reported scores of women, children massacred by pro-regime Alawite militia, attribution disputed by regime, questioned by Russia; UNSC condemned killings, use of heavy weapons by regime; numerous countries, including U.S., France, UK expelled Syrian diplomats. UN 29 May found 13 executed near Deir al-Zour. Series of bombings: 5 May reportedly targeting business in Aleppo linked to pro-regime militia, at least 5 killed; 10 May against military intelligence building in Damascus, 55 reported killed, 372 wounded; 19 May against security building in Deir al-Zour, 9 killed. Security forces 3 May stormed Aleppo university campus following anti-regime protest by students, 5 killed, over 200 arrested; thousands 18 May demonstrated in Aleppo in solidarity with students. Security forces 15 May attacked funeral in Khan Sheikhoun during UNSMIS visit, 20 reported killed, 3 UN vehicles damaged. Opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) 20 May claimed 6 senior regime officials poisoned, including head of Syrian intelligence Asif Shawkat. UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan 28 May arrived in Damascus to push for implementation of peace plan, warned Syria at “tipping point”. UNSG Ban 31 May said Syria moving towards “catastrophic” civil war, demanded Syria implement peace plan. Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander late-month reportedly confirmed Iranian troop presence in Syria. As part of regime touted reforms, 7 May parliamentary elections held amid low turnout, opposition boycott. Opposition Syrian National Council chairman Burhan Ghalioun 17 May resigned following widespread criticism.

Syria

  |  1 May 2012

Unchanged Risk Alert

Early-month saw upsurge in violence despite acceptance of Annan peace plan by Syrian regime, opposition. Security forces 9 April opened fire on Turkish refugee camp in Kilis, 2 killed. Following UN pressure, regime 12 April agreed to ceasefire with opposition; UNSG 24 April expressed alarm at surge in regime violence, 26 April said regime in contravention of peace plan; France 25 April said UNSC should consider use of force; U.S. 27 April said “patience exhausted”. Renewed anti-regime demonstrations took place mid-month despite continued regime targeting. UNSC 14 April unanimously approved deployment of 30 UN observers, 21 April voted to increase number to 300. Activists 23 April claimed Hama shelled by regime as punishment for UN visit, dozens reported killed, 26 April reported up to 70 killed in explosion in Hama. Regime 27 April said 10 killed in “suicide bombing” in Damascus. At least 9 killed in 30 April blasts in Idlib reportedly targeting security buildings. Opposition fighters 28 April reportedly launched sea raid in Latakia province. 2nd Friends of Syria Summit held 1 April in Istanbul, opposition group SNC said rebel fighters to receive salaries. EU 23 April agreed new round of sanctions against Syria.  

Syria

  |  1 Apr 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Month saw continued descent into civil war with increased clashes between opposition armed groups and security forces, growing humanitarian concerns, continuing anti-regime protests countrywide: govt forces continued onslaught against opposition strongholds; activists said civilians massacred. 27 reported killed 17 March by car-bombs targeting Damascus security buildings; shadowy Islamist group al-Nusra Front to Protect the Levant claimed responsibility. 2 killed 18 March by car bomb in Aleppo. UNSG Ban 2 March said regime committed widespread crimes against civilians, 21 March warned crisis has “potentially massive repercussions”. UNSC same day issued non-binding presidential statement supporting UN/Arab League Special Envoy Annan’s 6-point plan including calls for UN supervised ceasefire, humanitarian access; Syria 27 March accepted peace plan, but many questions remain regarding implementation; Syria 31 March announced troops to stay in residential areas until “peace and security” achieved. Outgoing Russian President Medvedev 25 March said Annan mission last chance for Syria to avoid civil war; UN 15 March said 200,000 Syrians displaced during conflict; Turkish PM Erdogan 16 March raised possibility of buffer zone inside Syria to protect refugees. HRW 13 March said regime mining routes used by escaping refugees along Turkish, Lebanese borders; 20 March accused armed opposition elements of human rights abuses against regime loyalists. UN HRC 23 March extended mandate of UN expert panel investigating alleged abuses; UNHR chief Pillay 28 March said regime “systematically detaining and torturing children”. EU 23 March imposed sanctions on al-Assad family members.

Syria

  |  1 Mar 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Fears of civil war grew with regime targeting protesters and civilians on unprecedented scale, ongoing clashes between security forces and Free Syrian Army across country; UN 28 Feb announced over 7,500 killed so far. Regime 4 Feb began heavy shelling of Homs, killing 2 Western journalists 22 Feb; opposition warned of massacre. 2 truck-bombs 10 Feb targeted security compounds in Aleppo killing 28. Al-Qaida leader al-Zawahiri 12 Feb vowed support for uprising. Security forces 19 Feb fired on estimated 15,000 demonstrators in Damascus. International community remained divided: Russia, China 4 Feb vetoed UNSC draft resolution backed by Arab League (AL) condemning violent crackdown and supporting Jan AL roadmap; AL 12 Feb called for joint UN/AL peacekeeping mission; UNGA 16 Feb approved Arab-backed resolution condemning human rights violations. UN HR chief Pillay 13 Feb called for ICC referral of situation; UN Commission of Inquiry 23 Feb reported Syrian security forces, senior officials responsible for gross, systematic human rights violations. UN Human Rights Council 28 Feb held emergency session; Pillay described rapidly deteriorating situation. U.S. 22 Feb warned of "additional measures" if regime fails to end violence. Kofi Annan appointed UN-AL special envoy to Syria 23 Feb. “Friends of Syria” contact group - including 60 countries - 24 Feb met in Tunis, recognised opposition Syrian National Council as “a legitimate representative of Syrians”; Saudi Arabia, Qatar vowed to arm opposition; EU 27 Feb announced new sanctions against Syria; France, U.S. 28 Feb drafting new UNSC resolution to alleviate humanitarian suffering. Russia 7 Feb, China 17 Feb dispatched envoys to Damascus: Russian FM Lavrov called for solution based on Dec AL peace initiative; Chinese deputy FM Zhai Jun backed Syrian reforms. National referendum 26 Feb approved new constitution removing Ba’ath party monopoly.

Syria

  |  1 Feb 2012

Deteriorated Risk Alert

UNSC in debate 31 Jan failed to agree on resolution calling on Assad to step down, talks continue. Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 18 Jan stated Russia would reject sanctions, use UNSC veto to block any proposals for military intervention; Britain, France, U.S. 24 Jan condemned Russia’s sales of weapons to Syria. Gulf Arab states 24 Jan withdrew observers after govt rejected plan for President Assad to surrender power; Arab League 24 Jan requested meeting with UNSG Ban to discuss crisis, demand UNSC support. Arab League 28 Jan announced withdrawal of observers due to increased violence; FM Muallem 24 Jan accused Arab League of plotting to internationalise crisis. Despite continued violent crackdown on anti-govt protests, wide-scale demonstrations in support of Free Syrian Army continued throughout Jan. Damascus suicide bombs 6 Jan killed 25; explosions in Idlib province 21 Jan killed at least 14; at least 37 reported killed by security forces 27 Jan; 17 dead found 28 Jan on streets, allegedly killed by govt forces; at least 33 killed in attack by govt forces in Rankous, north of Damascus. Activists 30 Jan claimed over 100 dead, mostly in Homs.

Syria

  |  2 Jan 2012

Unchanged

UN reported over 5,000 people killed in 9-month crackdown on anti-regime protests; regime said over 2,000 security force members killed. Hundreds of thousands continued to protest against President Assad as violence intensified. Increasing defections to Free Syrian Army and attacks on security forces. General strike started early month along with numerous forms of civil disobedience. EU 2 Dec imposed sanctions on 3 Syrian oil firms, including state-owned Sytrol. Regime 12 Dec signed Arab League (AL) peace plan, agreeing to let in monitors, pull troops from protest-hit towns, free political prisoners and start talking to opposition. UNGA 19 Dec condemned Syria for crackdown and rights abuses; UNSC continued to debate resolution. Regime escalated crackdown ahead of arrival of Arab League observers, with over 200 people killed 19-20 Dec. Advance team of AL monitors arrived 22 Dec, nearly 100 by end-Dec; over 150 people reported killed since monitors’ mission began. Twin car bomb attack 23 Dec on security buildings in Damascus killed 44, injured over 150; officials blamed al-Qaeda, opposition figures accused govt of staging attack. Govt 28 Dec said 755 prisoners released in compliance with Arab League plan.

Syria

  |  1 Dec 2011

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Fears of escalation in violence as month saw failed Arab League attempt to end bloodshed, accelerated militarisation of protest movement, internationalisation of conflict. UN reported some 3,500 killed in crackdown on ongoing anti-regime protests. Authorities blamed violence on foreign-backed armed groups, said killed some 1,100 soldiers and police. Opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) 7 Nov called for international intervention in security forces siege of central city Homs, called it “humanitarian disaster area”. Arab League 12 Nov voted to suspend Syria after it failed to implement 2 Nov deal to end bloodshed and withdraw forces from cities; Russian FM Lavrov called suspension ploy by West to destabilise Syria. Pro-Assad crowds 12 Nov attacked Saudi Arabian embassy, French and Turkish consulates. President Assad 20 Nov said parliamentary elections would be held early-2012 ahead of new constitution including provisions for presidential elections; govt said over 2,000 political prisoners released in month. UNGA 22 Nov adopted non-binding resolution condemning Syria’s actions. French FM Juppe 23 Nov said France seeking international recognition for SNC at UN. UNHRC published report 28 Nov accused regime of systematic murder, torture and rape. Escalating attacks by Free Syrian Army, made up of army defectors, including killing of 8 soldiers in 26 Nov ambush in Idlib. Arab League 27 Nov agreed economic sanctions against regime; Turkey 30 Nov imposed financial sanctions.

Syria

  |  1 Nov 2011

Unchanged

UN reported over 3,000 now killed in crackdown on ongoing anti-regime protests, including at least 187 children; thousands more arrested, tortured or disappeared. UNSC resolution condemning Syria vetoed 5 Oct by Russia and China over mention of possible sanctions. FM Moallem 9 Oct warned foreign countries not to recognise newly formed opposition Syrian National Council. Kurdish opposition leader Mashaal Tammo killed 7 Oct by gunmen; at least 5 killed by security forces as tens of thousands attended funeral. Tens of thousands demonstrated in Damascus, Aleppo in govt-organised rallies in support of President Assad.  U.S. Ambassador Ford 24 Oct left country after receiving threats; Damascus immediately withdrew Washington envoy. In deadliest Friday demonstrations since May some 35 reportedly killed 28 Oct, mostly in Homs and Hama. Increased clashes between army defectors and security forces including clash 29 Oct in Homs that reportedly killed 20 soldiers, injured 50. NATO Sec Gen Rasmussen 31 Oct ruled out possibility of military intervention. Arab League 30 Oct called for end to violence, release of prisoners, negotiations with opposition in Cairo from 2 Nov.

Syria

  |  1 Oct 2011

Unchanged

UN reports military crackdown has killed at least 2,700 people during continued nationwide uprising against Assad regime. Tanks pounded towns in central region of Homs, major flashpoint between troops loyal to President Assad and army defectors. Syrian authorities claim 700 police and army killed during unrest by “terrorists” and “mutineers”. At least 200 opposition members gathered 16 Sept in meeting of National Co-ordinating body outside Damascus. Group of activists 16 Sept formed Syrian National Council in Istanbul, marking 6 month anniversary of beginning of uprising. UNSG Ban 15 Sept said Assad has repeatedly broken promises of reform, called for international action. OHCHR 23 Sept alarmed by “increasingly brutal crackdown”, urged UNSC to refer Syria to ICC. Turkey 23 Sept imposed arms embargo against Syria for brutal crackdown on pro-democracy uprising; EU increased sanctions primarily on oil sector. U.S. Ambassador Ford mobbed by Assad supporters 29 Sept while visiting opposition figure in Damascus; officials accused U.S. of interference, inciting violence against security forces.

Syria

  |  1 Sep 2011

Deteriorated

Thousands took part in end of Ramadan anti-govt protests across country, despite increased crackdown on major flashpoint cities; UN 23 Aug reported govt forces killed nearly 2,200 since unrest erupted mid-March. Armoured forces backed by tanks and snipers continued to crush protests in Daraa, Damascus, Homs, Latakia, Deir el-Zour and elsewhere. At least 45 people reported killed 3 Aug in military assault in Hama. Navy gunboats 14 Aug began firing on coastal city Latakia killing at least 28; 5,000 Palestinians also driven from al-Ramal camp. UNSC 3 Aug released first statement condemning rights violations against protesters. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah 6 Aug recalled envoy to Syria, urged President Assad to “stop the killing machine”. Arab League 7 Aug for first time condemned action of Syrian authorities; Sec Gen Nabil al-Arabi visited Syria 28 Aug. UNOHCHR 18 Aug published report on crackdown, recommended referral to ICC over possible crimes against humanity; UNHRC 24 Aug ordered independent investigation into violence. U.S., EU same day urged UN sanctions, called for Assad to step down; Washington froze all Syrian assets under U.S. jurisdiction. Foreign ministry rebutted western accusations, said regime facing threat from “terrorists”; Assad 21 Aug said govt will not fall.

Syria

  |  1 Aug 2011

Deteriorated

Security forces backed by tanks 31 July launched assault on rebellious cities, scores killed nationwide with over 80 reported killed in flashpoint city of Hama; international community condemned violence, U.S. embassy said govt launched “full-on warfare” against its own people. Syrian rights groups said more than 1,600 people killed, at least 12,000 arrested since unrest began in March. Hundreds of thousands took to streets over month as daily anti-regime protests continued to spread, including to Homs, Hama. “National Dialogue” meeting opened 10 July, opposition figures boycotted, said any reform would remain on paper as long as security apparatus continues to operate with impunity. President Assad 20 July in 3rd speech since uprising began again promised reforms. Cabinet 24 July approved law allowing formation of political parties other than ruling Baath party, 26 July approved new election law; opposition dismissed “cosmetic” changes. 2 special advisers to UNSG Ban 22 July warned “serious possibility” regime had committed crimes against humanity, called for independent investigation.

 

Syria

  |  1 Jul 2011

Unchanged

Repression continued. Opposition said some 1,400 people killed since March in ongoing regime crackdown on anti-regime protests, including over 150 in scorched earth campaign in NW province Idlib near Turkish border. Regime claimed “armed thugs”, foreign conspirators behind violence; military spokesman 26 June claimed over 300 members of security forces killed. Over 12,000 civilians fled across border to refugee camps in Turkey. President Assad 20 June, in third speech since uprising began, promised reforms including committee to study constitutional amendments; opponents said reforms too little, too late, too vague. Mass pro-regime demonstrations 21 June in several cities, clashes with anti-regime activists; rival rallies 30 June in Aleppo as unrest spread to Syria’s second city. Govt 27 June invited opposition figures to 10 July talks to set framework for dialogue; opposition dismissed offer, said not credible while mass killings and arrests continue. Tens of thousands protested 24 June in defiance of military crackdown, at least 15 reported killed across country; EU condemned “shocking violence” of regime, extended sanctions against those supporting crackdown. At least 10 killed 5 June in clashes between pro-Palestinian protesters and IDF along border with Israeli-controlled Golan Heights (See Israel/OPT).

Syria

  |  1 Jun 2011

Deteriorated

Rights groups reported more than 1,100 killed, over 10,000 detained, widespread torture in 10-week violent crackdown on nationwide anti-regime protests; majority in southern Hauran Plain region where uprising first erupted. 44 killed 20 May as troops backed by tanks deployed at protest sites. Officials continued to blame violence on “armed criminal gangs”, said more than 120 members of security forces killed. EU, U.S. expanded sanctions on regime, added President Assad to list of officials banned from travelling, subject to assets freeze. U.S. President Obama 17 May said Assad must allow political transition or step aside. Assad 31 May issued general amnesty for all members of political movements including Muslim Brotherhood; opposition said amnesty comes too late. EU nations 24 May proposed resolution to UNSC condemning Syria for bloody crackdown but did not include UN sanctions, intervention. 2 killed, dozens wounded 15 May by IDF gunfire as pro-Palestinian protesters commemorating Nakba entered Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Govt condemned Israeli “criminal activities”; U.S. accused Damascus of inciting border clashes to divert attention from violent crackdown (See Israel/OPT). IAEA 24 May reported Dair Alzour site bombed by Israel in 2007 “very likely” nuclear reactor; govt 27 May reportedly offered full cooperation, will allow first inspection of site since 2008.

“Syrian troops ‘kill 44 protesters after Friday prayers’”, BBC, 21 May 2011.

Syria

  |  1 May 2011

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Sharp escalation in violence during month with some 550 civilians killed since start of anti-regime protests last month; over 110 protesters killed 22 Apr in worst day of bloodshed. Troops and tanks deployed 25 Apr in Deraa, besieged city where revolt began, in violent crackdown. Over 300 members of ruling Baath party resigned late month in protest at ongoing military assault on Deraa. UNSC 28 Apr failed to agree on joint statement condemning repression; UNHRC 29 Apr voted to investigate alleged crimes committed against civilians. U.S. 29 Apr imposed targeted sanctions against regime officials . President Assad 22 Apr lifted 48-year state of emergency, however protesters demanded end of Baath party monopoly, establishment of democratic political system. Authorities blamed armed groups, infiltrators and Sunni Muslim militant organisations for provoking violence by firing on civilians and security forces.

Syria

  |  1 Apr 2011

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Fears of further unrest after anti-regime protests spread across country over month, including to Damascus, from southern city Daraa, where at least 55 reported killed by security forces since 18 March. Dozens reported killed in other cities in violent crackdown by security forces; army deployed 27 March after 12 reportedly killed in northwestern port Latakia. In first public address since beginning of unrest, President Assad 30 March blamed foreign conspiracy; remarks seen as inflammatory. Assad 26 March reportedly released political prisoners, including lawyer Diana Jawabra; 31 March ordered study on replacing emergency laws, probe into civilian deaths. Cabinet resigned 29 March in face of protests. UNSG Ban 26 March phoned Assad to urge “maximum restraint”, U.S. condemned govt ”repression”. Syria 2 March agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to examine Homs acid purification plant on 1 April; U.S. 9 March said insufficient, warned Syria cannot be allowed to “stonewall” IAEA investigations.

Syria

  |  1 Mar 2011

Unchanged

Third peaceful protest in 3 weeks in Damascus violently dispersed 23 Feb by police; planned 5 Feb “Day of Rage” protests failed to draw any protesters. Govt 9 Feb allowed access to Facebook and YouTube 3 years after blocking websites. Higher State Security Court 14 Feb sentenced teenage blogger to 5 years in prison on charges of spying for CIA; U.S. criticised secret trial, appealed for release. Turkey PM Erdoğan 6 Feb praised booming ties with Syria at launch of public works on “friendship dam” at border between countries. 2 Iranian warships 23 Feb docked at Latakia, first Iranian navy vessels to pass through Suez Canal since 1979 revolution (see Iran).

Syria

  |  1 Feb 2011

Unchanged

Saudi-Syrian efforts to mediate tensions in Lebanon broke down 11 Jan; collapse of Lebanese coalition govt followed. Syria-Qatar-Turkey held trilateral summit 18 Jan in Damascus to discuss efforts at easing tensions in Lebanon. FM Walid Mouallem 27 Jan called on all parties in Lebanon to form unity govt under designate-PM Mikati (see Lebanon). Exiled leader of banned opposition Muslim Brotherhood 16 Jan offered to halt group’s political activity in exchange for right to return. President Assad 31 Jan said will not grant IAEA inspectors unrestricted access because it would amount to violation of sovereignty. Assad 31 Jan said no chance of popular uprising in Syria as ruling hierarchy closely linked to beliefs of people; opposition reportedly planning 5 Feb “day of rage” mirroring demonstrations in Egypt and Tunisia.

Syria

  |  3 Jan 2011

Unchanged

Saudi-Syria mediation efforts to defuse tension in Lebanon ahead of Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) decision on former PM Hariri’s murder continued, but yet to produce anything tangible. During 9 Dec visit to Paris focusing on situation in Lebanon, President Assad said issue was an internal matter and solution could “only be Lebanese” (see Lebanon). IAEA Director General Amano 2 Dec said he had formally urged Damascus to provide inspectors with prompt access to remains of alleged nuclear weapons site al-Kibar; Syrian envoy 3 Dec dismissed claims as political, said should focus on Israel instead. UNSG Ban 3 Dec urged Israel-Syria to resume peace talks as soon as possible, recommended UN Disengagement Observer Force mandate to be extended by 6 months. U.S. President Obama 29 Dec appointed Robert Ford ambassador to Syria, first since 2005.

 

Syria

  |  1 Dec 2010

Unchanged

IAEA report 23 Nov said Syria refusing UN nuclear inspectors access to multiple sites, provided inconsistent or scant information; Syria said more information needed from IAEA before allowing visit. Officials 23 Nov condemned new Israeli law mandating national referendum on withdrawal from Golan Heights (See Israel/OPT). Israeli FM Lieberman 11 Nov declared peace talks with Syria should not be pursued; FM Moallem 14 Nov said Israel is not partner for peace. U.S. Sec State Clinton 12 Nov addressed reports of arms smuggling from Syria to Hizbollah, said Washington would not accept attempts to jeopardise Lebanon’s security. Saudi Prince Abdel-Aziz bin Abdullah 21 Nov visited Damascus as Saudi-Syrian efforts intensified to defuse tension in Lebanon ahead of Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) decision on former PM Hariri’s murder (See Lebanon).

Syria

  |  1 Nov 2010

Unchanged

FM Moallem 3 Oct said Turkey must mediate any indirect peace talks with Israel. President Assad 11 Oct said Israel hindering peace process, 28 Oct said Israel not interested in peace. Israeli media 8 Oct reported satellite images revealing Syrian scud missile and Hizbollah training base near Damascus. Assad 26 Oct accused U.S. of creating “chaos” abroad. U.S. ambassador to UN Susan Rice 28 Oct accused Damascus of destabilizing Lebanon by arming militias including Hizbollah. Assad 2 Oct visited Iran to reinforce ties, 11 Oct met Turkish PM Erdogan to discuss security strategy against PKK.

  • U.S. accuses Syria of destabilizing Lebanon”, New York Times, 28 Oct. 2010.
  • For latest reports, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°92, Reshuffling the Cards? (I): Syria’s Evolving Strategy, 14 Dec. 2009, and Crisis Group Middle East Report N°93, Reshuffling the Cards? (II): Syria’s New Hand, 16 Dec. 2009.

Syria

  |  1 Oct 2010

Unchanged

U.S. Special Envoy Mitchell 16 Sept met President Assad, affirmed U.S. commitment to Israeli-Syria peace deal; reiterated by U.S. Sec State Clinton in 27 Sept meeting with FM Muallem. Iranian President Ahmadinejad met with Assad 18 Sept. Israel President Peres 20 Sept said Israel ready for direct negotiations with Syria. Further IAEA and Western pressure mid-month over Dair Alzour alleged nuclear site. Russia 17 Sept said advanced missile sales to Syria to go ahead. Restoration of diplomatic ties with Iraq announced 24 Sept.

Syria

  |  1 Sep 2010

Unchanged

U.S. envoy to IAEA 3 Aug said agency should consider pushing for special inspection of alleged nuclear arms sites in Syria. Israel 5 Aug indicted 3 men for spying for Syria; FM Muallem in letter to UNSG Ban said charges fabricated. Reports emerged late month of new military cooperation between Hizbollah and Syria.

“IAEA should look at mandatory Syria inspection: U.S.”, Reuters, 3 Aug. 2010.

 

Syria

  |  1 Aug 2010

Unchanged

President Assad, Saudi Arabian King Abdullah 29 July held talks in Damascus before travelling to Beirut next day to ease tensions in Lebanon (see Lebanon). PM Otri and Lebanese PM Hariri signed economic agreements 18 July; Otri said bilateral cooperation must extend to security. No progress on demarcation of common borders. Elderly regime critic Haitham Maleh jailed 4 July for 3 years for “weakening national sentiment”.

Syria

  |  1 Jul 2010

Unchanged

In 15 June Damascus meeting President Assad and Lebanon President Sleiman called for firm Arab stance to break Gaza blockade, agreed to start demarcating their shared land and maritime borders, strengthen bilateral ties. Human rights activist jailed 23 June for 3 years for “weakening national sentiment”; U.S. 24 June called for his release. Ali Al-`Abdallah, journalist arrested Dec 2007 on same charges, faced new charges following 17 June scheduled release.

Syria

  |  1 Jun 2010

Unchanged

Hizbollah weapons row continued: Israeli PM Netanyahu 29 May claimed Hizbollah operating Scud missiles from within Syria. Israeli intelligence chief Yossi Baidatz 4 May alleged organised and official Syrian weapons transfers to Hizbollah. French FM Kouchner 2 May, U.S. Asst Sec of State Feltman 20 May called for Syria to increase efforts to prevent arms shipments to Hizbollah. FM Muallim 23 May said Syria will not be “policeman” for Israel. President Assad 22 May met with U.S. Sen. Kerry, 23 May with Kouchner. Obama 3 May said Syria posed “extraordinary threat” to U.S., extended for 1 year U.S. sanctions, 1st imposed in 2004, restricting U.S. exports to country, access to U.S. financial system for some Syrians. During visit to Syria, Russian President Medvedev 11 May indicated willingness to support construction of Syrian nuclear power plant. Visit followed by signing of Russia, Syria weapons deal 14 May.


Syria

  |  1 May 2010

Unchanged

Israeli President Peres 13 Apr charged Syria with supplying Scud missiles to Hizbollah in Lebanon; Syrian foreign ministry said claim fabricated, pretext for Israeli aggression. U.S. summoned senior Syrian diplomat 19 Apr to condemn provocation; Defense Sec Gates 27 Apr, Sec State Clinton 30 Apr warned that Syria’s arming of Hizbollah destabilising region. Officials including Sec State Clinton 22 Apr defended engagement with Syria, appointment of U.S. ambassador in face of increased domestic criticism. IAEA inspectors 6 Apr visited Damascus nuclear research reactor, but were denied access to contentious military sites. Syria held joint military exercises with Turkey 27-29 Apr.

Syria

  |  1 Apr 2010

Unchanged

Turkish PM Erdogan 9 March said Syria willing to resume Turkish-mediated indirect talks with Israel, “positive signals” coming from Israel. EU foreign policy chief Ashton met President Assad, FM Muallim during 15-16 March Damascus visit; reportedly discussed resumption of stalled negotiations on EU association agreement. Security forces 21 March clashed with Kurds celebrating New Year in Raqqa, killing at least 1.

Syria

  |  1 Mar 2010

Unchanged

U.S. formally nominated career diplomat Robert Ford as ambassador to Syria 16 Feb; position vacant since 2005 after Syria accused of assassinating former Lebanese PM Hariri. U.S. envoy Burns and senior U.S. counter-terrorism official 17 Feb held “candid” talks with President Assad. Syria, Iran signed bilateral visa-free travel deal during 25 Feb Damascus visit of Iranian President Ahmadinejad. After Israeli Defence Minister Barak 1 Feb suggested all-out regional war possible, FM Muallim 3 Feb threatened response against Israeli cities; Israeli FM Lieberman also threatened retaliation against Syrian regime with war, but spokesman for PM Netanyahu 7 Feb reaffirmed peace talks are Israeli priority. Muallim 20 Feb rejected IAEA call in 18 Feb report for greater access for agency’s inspectors.

Syria

  |  1 Feb 2010

Unchanged

President Assad visited Saudi Arabia 13-15 Jan for discussion of regional issues; earlier met with Iranian FM in Damascus, 11 Jan. U.S. Mideast envoy Mitchell also met Assad 20 Jan, said Syria had “significant role” for peace in region.

Syria

  |  1 Jan 2010

Unchanged

19-20 Dec Damascus visit by Lebanese PM Saad Hariri marked shift in Syrian-Lebanese relations (see Lebanon); Hariri called for ties between countries to be renewed after meeting President Assad. Iranian Defence Minister Vahidi attended first meeting of Iran-Syria joint defence commission in Damascus 9 Dec. Foreign ministry 10 Dec warned that Israeli bill making referendum necessary for conceding Golan, supported by Netanyahu govt, would damage chances for peace. 4 Kurdish activists detained 26 Dec after demanding autonomy for Syrian Kurds.

Syria

  |  1 Dec 2009

Unchanged

Israeli PM Netanyahu said he was prepared for direct peace talks with Syria in 11 Nov meeting with French President Sarkozy. During 13 Nov visit to Paris, President Assad rejected offer as “word play”, called on Israel to return to indirect Turkish-mediated talks. IAEA 17 Nov announced new inspection of Damascus research reactor, citing Syrian explanations for previous uranium traces as unsatisfactory; IAEA head 26 Nov said Syria not fully cooperating with investigation. Human Rights Watch report 25 Nov criticised detention of Kurdish activists, disruption of Kurdish political, cultural gatherings by security services.

Syria

  |  1 Nov 2009

Unchanged

Thaw in relations with Saudi Arabia confirmed by 7-8 Oct Damascus visit of King Abdullah to discuss regional issues including Lebanon, Iraq, Palestinian territories. Several cabinet ministers met with Turkish counterparts 13 Oct in first session of strategic cooperation council, Aleppo. Signature of EU association agreement scheduled for 26 Oct postponed indefinitely after Syrian officials said more time needed for review. Dissident human rights lawyer Haitham Maleh arrested 14 Oct.

Syria

  |  1 Oct 2009

Unchanged

Syrian, Iraqi FMs 17 Sept met for Turkish-mediated talks to defuse diplomatic tension after Iraq accused Damascus of sheltering perpetrators of 19 Aug Baghdad bombing; no tangible progress made (see Iraq). Deputy PM Mekdad visited U.S. for talks on Iraq, sanctions 27 Sept. In sign of improved relations, President Assad paid surprise visit to Saudi Arabia 23 Sept. Syria, Turkey signed accord 16 Sept to end visa requirements, strengthen economic cooperation. Syria 17 Sept appealed for UN inquiry into Mehlis report, which implicated Syria in 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Hariri.

Syria

  |  1 Sep 2009

Unchanged

Iraq and Syria 25 Aug recalled ambassadors after Baghdad demanded handover of 2 senior Baathists implicated in 19 Aug Baghdad truck bombing (see Iraq); Iraq PM Maliki previously visited Damascus 18 Aug for security talks. Turkish FM in Baghdad visit 31 Aug in attempt to defuse tensions. Syria reportedly mediated in release of French researcher and embassy employee held in Iran on charges of espionage. 2nd U.S. military delegation in Damascus 12 Aug discussed Syrian efforts to curb movement of foreign fighters into Iraq. EU foreign policy chief Solana arrived in Damascus 30 Aug as part of Mideast tour. Israel deputy FM 12 Aug said continued talks will not be through Turkish mediation, wants direct talks with Syria; Damascus insisted mediator necessary.

Syria

  |  1 Aug 2009

Unchanged

U.S. envoy Mitchell in second visit to Damascus 25 July to seek progress on Syrian-Israeli, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks; Mitchell promised administration assistance in seeking case-by-case exemptions from U.S. sanctions on telecommunications, IT, aircraft parts. U.S. sanctions on prominent Syrian individuals renewed 31 July. President Assad 3 July issued formal invitation to U.S. President Obama; U.S. Dep Sec State Steinberg said such visit “will not take place soon” as Syria still transit for Hizbollah arms, Iraq fighters. Saudi Arabia appointed ambassador to Damascus 6 July after post vacant since 2008. Leading human rights lawyer Mohannad al-Hassani arrested 28 July.

Syria

  |  1 Jul 2009

Unchanged

Further signs of thaw in U.S.-Syria relations, as U.S. 24 June announced would send ambassador to Damascus after 4-year absence. U.S. Mid-East envoy Mitchell said Syria has “crucial role” in reaching comprehensive peace after 13 June meeting with President Assad. U.S. military delegation in Damascus for 12 June talks on Iraq security. IAEA 5 June reported traces of undeclared uranium found at second site; Syria denied allegations of illicit nuclear activities. Assad 22 June said ready to cooperate with UN court investigating murder of former Lebanese PM Hariri “within conditions”.

Syria

  |  1 Jun 2009

Unchanged

U.S. renewed sanctions 8 May, said Syria poses continuing threat to U.S. interests. U.S. 11 May called on Syria to take action against al-Qaeda fighters entering Iraq, after Gen. Petraeus late Apr said pipeline through Syria “reactivated”; U.S. Asst Sec State Feltman 6 May held “constructive” meeting with FM Muallim in Syria in 2nd 2009 visit. Israeli PM Netanyahu 8 May said “Israel will never withdraw from Golan”; 20 May stated Israel ready for talks with Syria without preconditions. Syria 12 May reiterated willingness to resume talks but 15 May said Israel no “partner for peace”. Kurd dissident Mishaal al-Tammo sentenced to 3.5 years in prison 12 May; dissident writer Michel Kilo freed 19 May after 3 years in prison.

Syria

  |  1 May 2009

Unchanged

Israeli FM Lieberman 26 Apr rejected commitment to return Golan as precondition for renewed Israel-Syria peace talks. Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) 4 Apr announced withdrawal from exile opposition alliance with former vice president Khaddam following discord over MB contacts with regime.

Syria

  |  1 Apr 2009

Unchanged

High-level U.S. envoys met FM Muallim in Damascus 7 March for talks on bilateral, regional issues; expressed optimism for future progress. Lebanon opened embassy in Damascus 16 March. Syria 24 March appointed ambassador to Beirut embassy opened in Dec (see Lebanon).

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CrisisWatch N°114

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