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Macedonia

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Ruling VMRO DPMNE won majority of mayoral seats in 7 April 2nd round of local elections, consolidating first round gains; court ordered re-run in several municipalities due to allegations of irregularities. European Commission progress report 16 April said country had made progress in almost all EU-related areas. UN mediator in name dispute between Greece and Macedonia offered fresh compromise proposal.

Azerbaijan

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Opposition Azerbaijani Popular Front Party activist arrested and sentenced to 10 days’ jail for taking part in unapproved anti-govt protest in Baku. FM Mammadyarov visited Israel in latest sign of closer relations between secular Shiite Baku and Tel Aviv. 

North Caucasus

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Following increase in tensions between Chechnya and Ingushetia, first armed clash took place 18 April as around 300 Chechen police plus MPs, local govt heads, TV crew arrived in Ingush village Arshty, claimed they came to conduct security operation against warlord Doku Umarov. Ingush chief executive Yevkurov called incursion a provocation, claimed group aimed to organise demonstration in support of Arshty joining Chechnya, notified Moscow and ordered strengthening of border with Chechnya. After President Putin signed law allowing NC republic parliaments to elect republic leaders rather than conduct popular elections, Dagestan parliament voted to eliminate direct elections for republic head. Major security operation conducted in Dagestan’s mountain village Gimry 11-21 April; most of almost 5,000 residents fled, 3 militants reported killed, few dozen houses reportedly partially destroyed. Also in Dagestan, authorities reported 2 militants killed in security operation in Sogratl, Gunibsky district 25 April; 3 suspect militants killed in Khivsky district 27 April; militant and supporter killed in Chontaul, Kizilyurt district 28 April. In Chechnya 2 soldiers killed in IED explosion in Shatoy district 28 April. In Ingushetia, 1 security forces member killed in IED explosion near Galashki village 3 April; 4 suspected militants, one security officer killed in special operation in Dalakovo village 8 April. North Caucasus insurgency formally denied involvement in 15 April Boston bombings, after it emerged that suspects are ethnic Chechen brothers.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Following visit to Bosnia 18 April, EU foreign policy chief Ashton said she was disappointed by lack of progress on political reform, political parties’ focus on party and ethnic interests; echoed concern expressed by EU Enlargement Commissioner Füle over continued failure to implement 2009 European Court of Human Rights Sejdić-Finci ruling. President of Bosniak-Croat Federation Živko Budimir and 18 other officials arrested as part of corruption investigation.

Kosovo

  |  1 May 2013

Improved

Kosovo and Serbia reached breakthrough deal at 10th session of EU-mediated dialogue in Brussels 19 April: agreement recognises authority of Pristina over whole territory of Kosovo and grants local autonomy based on provisions of Ahtisaari Plan. Also creates new post of police commander for northern Kosovo, to be Serb appointed by Pristina on nomination of local authorities, and chamber of Court of Appeal in North Mitrovica with majority of Serb judges. Northern Serbs rejected deal, considering their options. Despite protests against deal in Pristina and Belgrade and northern Mitrovica, Kosovo Parliament 21 April voted 89-5 in favour of deal, Serbia’s govt approved it 22 April, Serbian parliament 26 April. Followed 8th and 9th round of dialogue earlier in month at which Belgrade rejected terms which it claimed did not provide basic rights, security for Serbs.

Turkey

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Parliament 9 April approved ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)’s proposal to establish commission to monitor peace process between govt and Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK); opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) refused to vote. 3 pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) deputies visited PKK’s jailed leader Abdullah Öcalan 3 and 14 April, said Öcalan believed process entered “promising stage”.  PKK military leader in northern Iraq Karayılan 25 April announced PKK will start withdrawal from Turkey 8 May; no casualties recorded in April. Govt 3 April announced list of “wise people” tasked with explaining peace efforts to public. MHP 20 April staged first big demonstration against govt’s PKK deal in western province Izmir. Much-anticipated 4th judicial reform package approved 11 April, changing definition of terrorism to exclude printing statements and attending unauthorised demonstrations, but thousands of non-violent defendants in Kurdistan Communities Union case fall outside package’s scope. Amid gradual thaw in relations with Tel Aviv, Israeli delegation visited to discuss compensation for relatives of 9 Turks killed on Mavi Marmara in 2010. European Parliament 18 April approved resolution on Turkey’s 2012 EU progress report calling on the Council to open negotiations on chapter 22 (regional policy), lift blocks on chapters 23 (judiciary and fundamental rights), 24 (justice, freedom and security). Govt disaster agency reported number of Syrian refugees in Turkish camps surpassed 191,000, officials estimate around 250,000 more in Turkish cities.

Armenia

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

As president Sargsyan sworn in for 2nd term 9 April, defeated candidate Raffi Hovannisian, who continues to contest result of Feb presidential poll, held “alternative inauguration” drawing several thousand supporters.

Georgia

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Russian FM Lavrov in media interview 11 April welcomed pragmatism on part of Georgian PM Ivanishvili, said Moscow ready to expand ties with Tbilisi, but its recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is irreversible. Several thousand supporters of President Saakashvili rallied in Tbilisi 19 April. 27 April by-elections to fill 3 vacant parliamentary seats all won by Georgian Dream candidates.

Cyprus

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Turkish FM Ahmet Davutoğlu 7 April criticised Greek Cypriots for not re-starting reunification talks, Republic of Cyprus govt spokesman said current conditions not good. UNSG special envoy Alexander Downer 24 April said sides must take into account Greek Cypriot economic difficulties, added leaders likely to meet for talks in May. International bailout for Cyprus approved 12 April, involving €10 billion in loans and up to €13.5 billion contribution by Cyprus, rescuing country from bankruptcy and departure from Eurozone. Turkish energy minister 8 April said can cooperate with Greek Cypriots and Israel in joint energy projects “so long as the political atmosphere allows it”.

Serbia

  |  1 May 2013

Improved

European Commission 22 April said it would recommend start date for EU accession talks with Serbia following breakthrough deal normalising relations between Belgrade and Pristina (see Kosovo).

Macedonia

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Opposition and govt 1 March struck deal ending political crisis: opposition agreed to end boycott of parliament and take part in 24 March local elections, govt agreed to talks on timing of general elections, debate about democratic freedoms; commission of experts to investigate 24 Dec 2012 incident in parliament that triggered crisis. In local elections, ruling VMRO DPMNE won first round vote in 25 out of 80 municipalities, with lead in 32 more ahead of second round scheduled early April. Opposition, which won only 1 seat outright, renewed call for early general elections. OSCE expressed concern over irregularities in polls. Beginning of month saw 2 days of riots in Skopje following appointment of ethnic Albanian ex-guerrilla Talat Xhaferi as defence minister: protest by several hundred ethnic Macedonians reportedly turned violent, prompting counter-protests by ethnic Albanians; around 30 injured.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) MPs 21 March blocked nominations of 3 judges to entity’s constitutional court, which has been incomplete since 2008 and needs quorum of judges to rule on validity of Feb no-confidence vote in govt. Federation PM Nermin Niksic (SDP) walked out of govt session 20 March, accused other parties of staging a putsch after they voted to change procedures to allow deputy PM to call govt sessions. Court sentenced former Serb paramilitary commander Veselin Vlahovic, “Monster of Grbavica”, to 45 years’ jail for war crimes.

Azerbaijan

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Police 10 March again violently dispersed several hundred demonstrators in Baku protesting deaths and alleged abuse of conscripts in military, in latest of series of unsanctioned protests on issue; 2 more conscripts died during month. Police detained several activists, charged 3 with drugs, weapons possession. Leader of opposition Musavat party beaten up by unknown assailants 14 March.

Armenia

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

As supporters of defeated candidate in Feb presidential election Raffi Hovannisian continued to rally against result, Hovannisian 4 March made formal complaint to constitutional court alleging electoral fraud, went on hunger strike 10-29 March calling for President Sargsyan to step down. Court ruled no violations during vote. Sargsyan 25 March signalled readiness to engage in talks with Hovannisian.

Kosovo

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

4 March 6th round of talks between Kosovo and Serbian PMs focusing on future of Serbian-financed parallel institutions in N Kosovo began in Brussels 4 March, no agreement reached. Following 7th round of talks 20 March, EU foreign policy chief Ashton said sides “very close to solution to some specific issues such as northern Kosovo”, hopeful that they will finalise deal at meeting scheduled 2 April. EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle told Kosovo leaders to strengthen fight against corruption, in addition to normalizing relations with Serbia, in order to achieve Stabilisation and Association Agreement by June.

Turkey

  |  1 Apr 2013

Improved

Jailed leader of outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) Öcalan’s 21 March call to militants for eventual ceasefire and withdrawal to outside Turkish borders boosted peace prospects between govt and Kurdish insurgency. PM Erdoğan  said Öcalan’s call “positive” but will wait for implementation. PKK 13 March released 8 kidnapped public officials. PKK military leader in northern Iraq Karayılan declared ceasefire starting 23 March, suggested withdrawal could be completed by fall 2013. Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) claimed responsibility for 2 simultaneous attacks on govt buildings in Ankara 19 March. Israel PM Netanyahu 22 March issued formal apology to Turkey and agreed to pay compensation for killing 9 Turks aboard Mavi Marmara vessel in 2010, PM Erdoğan accepted apology but said ties will not normalize until Israel implements conditions.

North Caucasus

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Targeted killings in Dagestan included unknown assailants shot dead teacher at Islamic school in Karabudakhent district 4 March, federal judge killed by unknown assailant in Izberbash city 9 March, folk healer killed in Buynaksk 10 March. Two security officers and 5 militants including local govt deputy killed in special operation in Dagestan capital Makhachkala 20-22 March. 4 suspected militants killed, 8 detained in clash with security forces at checkpoint in Kabardino-Balkaria 12 March. Three militants, 1 police officer killed in special operation in Vedensky district, Chechnya 7 March.

Cyprus

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

UN-led reunification talks between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots on backburner amid Republic of Cyprus financial crisis. New Greek Cypriot govt’s €10 billion bailout deal with EU and IMF 24 March, including downsizing of financial sector and taxes on bank deposits over €100,000, caused public protests.

Georgia

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Continued tensions with Russia despite rhetoric of rapprochement. Officials met for 2nd round of talks on normalization 1 March, however Russian President Putin 12 March met with Abkhazian de facto president Aleksandre Ankvab in Moscow to discuss cooperation, prompting criticism from Georgian FM Panjikidze. Parliament 7 March adopted resolution reaffirming country’s commitment to Euro-Atlantic foreign policy. Parliament 21 March approved motion removing president’s authority to dismiss govt and parliament. Georgia and U.S. held joint military exercise prompting Russian criticism; Tbilisi expressed “grave concern” over snap Russian military exercises in Black Sea late month. Latest round of Geneva talks with Russia late month reportedly ended inconclusively.

Cyprus

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Democratic Rally (DISI) leader Nicos Anastasiades won Republic of Cyprus presidential elections with 57.5% of vote in 24 Feb second round; hopes that this may give boost to reunification talks as he supports a looser federation model favoured by many Turkish Cypriots.

Macedonia

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

As political crisis continued, govt turned down opposition SDSM demand to postpone 24 March local elections or hold them together with early general elections. SDSM pledged to boycott local elections unless settlement is reached with govt. EU enlargement commissioner Füle wrote to SDSM and ruling VMRO party leaders 21 Feb warning Macedonia risked losing its way to EU and NATO unless they could find a way forward, travelled to Skopje 28 Feb.

Moldova

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Talks on Transdniestria in Lviv 19 Feb, with representatives from Russia, Ukraine, U.S., EU, OSCE, plus Moldova and Transdniestria; OSCE urged sides to maintain momentum in negotiations set to continue May.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) entity lower chamber 12 Feb voted no confidence in FBiH govt; upper chamber 15 Feb blocked vote, through Bosniak caucus’s invocation of vital national interest. Constitutional court unable to rule on validity of veto as lacks necessary quorum of judges, due to ongoing failure to fill posts falling vacant. Republika Srpska (RS) president Dodik asked RS govt to step down, named former head of EU integration unit Željka Cvijanović new PM. Bosnia parliament voted to delay first nationwide census since 1991 until Oct.

Azerbaijan

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

President Aliyev responded to Jan spontaneous unrest in Baku and Ismayili by removing region’s governor and warning local officials and their children against “obnoxious behaviour”; opposition leader Ilgar Mammadov and journalist Tofiq Yaqublu arrested and charged with organising Ismayili unrest, several others also detained. Prominent writer Akram Ailisli came under attack over novella Stone Dreams about ongoing war with Armenia, with officially-promoted burnings of his books in Baku. President Aliyev signed decree stripping Ailisli of honours, pension; wife and son fired from jobs.

Georgia

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Political tensions heightened early Feb when ruling Georgian Dream (GD)-dominated parliament 7 Feb postponed President Saakashvili’s annual address to MPs. Saakashvili next day tried to give speech at national library, however some 300 protesters, including some individuals recently released as political prisoners, appeared to block entrance, some assaulted opposition MPs. PM Ivanishvili and Saakashvili both issued conciliatory statements following clashes; parties came together to discuss constitutional amendments proposed by GD restricting president’s ability to effect change of govt without parliamentary approval, and opposition United National Movement (UNM) proposal to enshrine pro-Western foreign policy in constitution. Negotiators 20 Feb announced parties reached agreement, but implementation not possible due to disagreement on amnesty for public servants, proposed by UNM. Tbilisi mayor Gigi Ugulava charged with money laundering and misspending public funds; denies charges. Second meeting between Georgian and Russian officials on normalising relations scheduled 1 March.


North Caucasus

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

New acting head of Dagestan Abdulatipov 22 Feb announced commission for rehabilitation of fighters to be closed, another “peacemaking” commission to be established. 4 police killed by suicide bomber at checkpoint outside Khasavyurt city, Dagestan 14 Feb; 2 security operations carried out in city 14, 17 Feb, 9 insurgents and a police officer killed, including Daniyal Zargalov, emir of Northern Sector. In Ingushetia, security forces in Nazran 13 Feb shot dead former deputy minister and opposition leader Sultangirey Khashagulgov, claimed by authorities to be sponsoring insurgent group. Head of North Caucasus Resorts Company, Akhmed Bilalov, dismissed after President Putin 7 Feb criticised activities of his private construction company in Sochi Olympics construction.

Armenia

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

President Sargsyan re-elected to 2nd term in first round presidential election 18 Feb with 58.64% of vote. Main opponent, American-born former FM Raffi Hovannisian, took 2nd place with unexpectedly strong 36.75%; refused to recognise results. Several thousand rallied in Yerevan against electoral process over following days. OSCE criticised lack of real competition in election.

Turkey

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Car bomb near Cilvegözü Turkish border crossing to Syria 11 Feb killed 14 civilians including 4 Turks: Syrian National Council (SNC) 12 Feb claimed target was SNC delegation. Govt-PKK peace talks continued: second delegation from pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) 24 Feb visited jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan following govt approval, issued statement suggesting future release of PKK-held captives. Civilian died under riot control vehicle 11 Feb in pro-Öcalan demonstrations in Diyarbakır province. 26 Feb Turkish army airstrike near PKK HQ in N Iraq killed 4 militants. Parliament 25 Feb began discussing AKP govt’s “fourth judicial reform package”, to remedy structural problems with judicial system, could lead to release of some Kurdish politicians and activists detained in Kurdistan Communities’ Union case. Suicide bombing by member of Revolutionary People’s Liberation Part-Front (DHKP-C) at U.S. embassy in Ankara 1 Feb killed 1 guard; police 18 Feb detained 167 people connected to group. France 12 Feb announced readiness to lift its veto on one of 5 EU negotiation chapters it has blocked since 2007. German Chancellor Merkel 23 Feb announced support for opening new chapter, called on Turkey to show progress in opening ports to Greek Cypriot vessels.

Kosovo

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Kosovo and Serbian PMs met for 5th round of dialogue in Brussels 19-20 Feb; spoke about institutions in north Kosovo, agreed to meet again 4 March. Presidents of Kosovo and Serbia 6 Feb met for first time since Kosovo declared independence. Series of bombings in N Mitrovica, many targeting homes/property of people linked with Kosovo govt office, but also including 2 Serb children injured 4 Feb; large explosion 25 Feb demolished apartment. Local Serbs renewed roadblocks on Pristina-Belgrade highway. European Commission 12 Feb issued first report on Kosovo’s progress on requirements of visa liberalisation roadmap, citing limited capacity to fight organised crime and calling for several new laws. Serbian monastery Visoki Dečani surrounded by KFOR troops 8 Feb to protect it from demonstrators. Kosovo-Serbia agreement on liaison officers to work in EU delegation premises in Belgrade and Pristina delayed by disagreement over diplomatic immunity.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Political crisis in Mostar continued to worsen; city lacking lawful govt after it failed to hold local elections in Oct 2012, now has no budget for 2013. Bosnian Army war memorial in front of city hall destroyed by explosion 14 Jan. Local leaders rejected new attempt by Office of the High Representative 23 Jan to negotiate a solution. EU Enlargement Commissioner Štefan Füle warned EU will not recognise next elections if Bosnia fails to implement European Court of Human Rights Sejdić-Finci ruling. In Federation entity, coalition led by Social Democratic Party continued efforts to pass no-confidence vote in entity govt. Govt criticised after clearing way for formation of 4th, Croat-language public broadcaster.

Macedonia

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Political crisis that began 24 Dec with ejection of opposition MPs from parliament ahead of budget vote ongoing, as opposition continued to boycott parliament, staged protests and road blocks during month. Opposition demanding resignations of ministers for police, justice and finance, early general elections in March, reform of electoral register. PM Gruevski accused opposition of attempting coup, rejected early general elections. Meeting between Gruevski and opposition leader Crvenkovski 22 Jan failed to resolve crisis. Several thousand participated in opposition march 27 Jan. Visiting EU Enlargement Commissioner Štefan Füle 23 Jan urged sides to resolve crisis, focus on EU accession agenda. UN mediator in name dispute between Macedonia and Greece Matthew Nimetz held talks in both countries’ capitals 9-11 Jan, and with negotiators in New York late month; Füle also proposed new initiative on name.

Cyprus

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

No movement on reunification talks ahead of 17 Feb presidential elections in Republic of Cyprus. Angry rhetoric towards Turkey continued; Republic of Cyprus FM Erato Kozakou-Marcoulli 15 Jan accused Turkey of “still [opting] for a hard power stance”, said it was “out of the question” for Cyprus to lift its veto on 6 of Turkey’s EU negotiating chapters, including energy. Greek Cypriot govt 28 Jan said transporting Cypriot gas via pipeline to Turkey not possible until solution reached.

Azerbaijan

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Thousands protested in central town Ismayili 23, 24 Jan demanding resignation of local governor Nizami Alekberov and setting fire to cars, buildings; dozens arrested. Hundreds rallied in Baku 26 Jan in solidarity with Ismayili protesters; dozens of protesters arrested. Hundreds protested in Baku 12 Jan calling for resignation of defence minister over allegations of hazing and bullying in military following 7 Jan death of army conscript; 21 men fined for participating in demonstration under new law on mass gatherings. Around 1,000 shopkeepers protesting against rent increases clashed with police in Baku 19 Jan.

Armenia

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

8 candidates registered for 18 Feb presidential election. Candidate Andreas Ghukasyan, manager of private radio station, began hunger strike 21 Jan after his bid to have incumbent president Sargsyan rendered ineligible for registration was rejected by electoral commission. Other opposition candidates questioned accuracy of voters list, warned of possible irregularities. Sargsyan reaffirmed pledges to ensure proper conduct of election. Candidate Paruyr Hairikian wounded in attack by unidentified gunman 31 Jan.

Turkey

  |  1 Feb 2013

Resolution Opportunity Unchanged

Optimism over prospect of govt-PKK peace negotiations followed PM Erdoğan’s 19 Dec revelation that National Intelligence Organisation has been holding new round of talks with jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. Govt permitted pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and pro-Kurdish civil society organisation DTK to visit Öcalan 3 Jan; during meeting he reportedly said “era of armed struggle is over”. PM adviser on Kurdish affairs 4 Jan said goal with Kurds was “final settlement”, 11 Jan said military operations against PKK would continue until it disarmed. Govt 25 Jan passed law allowing defendants to speak Kurdish in court at will. Diyarbakır court 31 Jan acquitted 98 Kurdish mayors on one count of terrorism-related charges in trial with 106 suspects, suspended sentence for 3 years on another count. Crisis Group informally counted at least 22 people, mostly PKK, killed in clashes between govt and militants during month. Little progress on new constitution; AKP official 2 Jan said deadline may be extended from March to June 2013. 3 PKK women assassinated in Paris 10 Jan, including co-founder Sakine Cansız; thousands peacefully attended funerals in Diyarbakır province 17 Jan. French police arrested another PKK member as suspect in killings 21 Jan. Turkish police continued detentions of non-violent Kurdish activists in 1, 9, 11 Jan operations. Following Ankara’s Dec request to NATO to boost defence capabilities against Syria, 6 Patriot anti-missile batteries from U.S., Germany, Netherlands became operational 25 Jan amid protests, some violent. Over 150,000 Syrian refugees now in 13 Turkish camps; estimated 60,000-150,000 outside camps.

North Caucasus

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

At least 700 people killed, 525 injured in armed clashes in NC in 2012 according to Caucasus Knot website, down from 2011 (when at least 750 killed, 628 injured). Casualties decreased significantly among police and civilians; experts attribute increased militant losses to more assertive counter-terrorism efforts. Violence still worst in Dagestan, rose in Ingushetia. Terrorist attacks on high-ranking officials, clergy, journalists during Jan included: in Makhachkala, Dagestan, unidentified perpetrators 11 Jan attempted to kill editor and journalist Akhmednabi Akhmednabiev; gunman 15 Jan shot dead Dagestan Supreme Court judge Madomed Magomedov; in Ingushetia, Mufti Council of Russia member’s home shot at 14 Jan. Several suspected militants killed during month, including 2 men, 1 woman killed in counter-terrorist operation in Tyrnyauz, Kabardino-Balkaria (KB) 16 Jan, 3 militants killed in Chegem 25 Jan. Interior ministry reported main suspect in Dec killings of journalist and principal of agriculture university killed in special operation in Nalchik, KB 29 Jan. Chechen militant leader Khusein Gakayev, deputy leader of Dokku Umarov’s Caucasus Emirate, reportedly killed with his brother and 10 other militants in Vedensky district 24 Jan; 2 police also killed. Increasing number of women caught/killed in security operations in Dagestan and KB in recent months. President Putin replaced Magomedsalam Magomedov with former nationalities minister Ramazan Abdulatipov as acting head of Dagestan.

Serbia

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Parliament 13 Jan passed resolution on high-level dialogue with Pristina, based on govt platform adopted earlier in month, which calls for territorial and political autonomy for Serb municipalities in Kosovo, accepts step-by-step approach in place of demand that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, drops call to demilitarise Kosovo. Authorities 20 Jan removed controversial memorial to ethnic Albanian fighters in Preševo in south, prompting upheaval in Preševo, calls for secession.

Georgia

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Georgian Orthodox Church Patriarch Ilia II visited Moscow 22-24 Jan, met with Russian President Putin; groups of Georgian entrepreneurs also visited Moscow to discuss economic relations. Defence minister Irakli Alasania relieved of his position as first deputy PM by PM Ivanishvili due to leaked internal discussion regarding his possible candidacy for position of president. Scandal broke after prosecutors announced high-ranking officials from previous govt had systematically blackmailed public figures after filming them engaged in homosexual activities; Saakashvili denied knowledge or involvement. 190 prisoners released as part of 13 Jan amnesty after being recognised as political prisoners by parliament Dec 2012.

Kosovo

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Kosovo and Serbia PMs met in 4th round of EU-mediated talks in Brussels 17 Jan, agreed on compromise solution for customs duties, VAT for Serb-run north of Kosovo. PM Thaçi late month announced special fund to be set up in state budget for Serb-run north, to be financed from customs/taxes collected at border with Serbia; Serbia condemned proposal. Dozens of Serb graves attacked in Klokot and Prizren 20-21 Jan, in apparent retaliation for Belgrade’s removal of monument to Albanian fighters in Preševo (see Serbia). 3 official vehicles found burnt out in Pristina 18 Jan; 2 blasts reported in north 17 Jan.

Turkey

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

NATO 3 Dec approved Turkey’s request for defensive Patriot missiles along its border with Syria; deployment expected early 2013. PKK-army fighting killed 4 militants 1 Dec in Elazig province; Turkish authorities said 26 PKK killed, 11 captured in one-month military operation in Osmaniye province in Dec. Stray Syrian shells continue to fall on Turkish border towns, no casualties in Dec; Turkish military more restrained in retaliating to incidents. 11 Dec EU General Affairs council’s enlargement report mentioned “accession” with reference to Turkey first time in 5 years, stressed need for new constitution.

Macedonia

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

EU Council 11 Dec declined to open accession talks with Macedonia, after Greece again blocked start date for talks on grounds of bilateral name dispute, supported by Bulgaria. As thousands of pro- and anti-govt protestors clashed violently outside parliament over govt’s 2013 proposed budget and opposition attempts to block it, opposition ejected from parliament 24 Dec, began parliamentary boycott 25 Dec.

Azerbaijan

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

After almost a year of negotiations, Azerbaijan and Russia 9 Dec allowed agreement on Gabala radar station, last Russian base in country, to lapse; Russia to withdraw its almost 1,000-strong contingent within a year, expected to relocate radar and missile shield to N Caucasus. Govt 26 Dec pardoned 2 jailed journalists, 1 blogger, several rights and opposition activists. Police forcibly dispersed dozens of opposition activists attending unsanctioned rally in Baku 10 Dec. Court 3 Dec found 4 men guilty of terrorism, high treason, for plotting bomb attacks ahead of Eurovision Song Contest and links with Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Cyprus

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

No movement expected in reunification negotiations before Feb 2013 presidential elections in Republic of Cyprus. Main opposition Democratic Rally (DISY)’s president Nikos Anastasiades, warmer towards reunification under a looser federation that Turkish Cypriots also favour, maintains lead in poll with AKEL’s Stavros Malas second and EDEK-backed hardliner Giorgos Lillikas third. 80 UNFICYP peacekeepers 30 Nov confronted Turkish soldiers in buffer zone over construction of fence by Turkish side; Turks later agreed to take it down.

Armenia

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Prosperous Armenia Party 12 Dec announced its leader, wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukian, would not run in 18 Feb 2013 presidential election; former president Ter-Petrossian also said he will not run. President Sargsyan unlikely to face challenger in race.

Serbia

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

EU Council 11 Dec declined to open accession talks with Serbia; said talks might begin early 2013, if Belgrade makes progress in normalising relations with Kosovo.

For more information please visit our CrisisWatch database. To learn more about our work in Serbia please visit the specific country page.

  • “Confounding expectations”, Economist, 15 Dec. 2012.
  • Kosovo

      |  30 Dec 2012

    Unchanged

    PM Thaçi and Serbian PM Dačić met for 3rd time in Brussels 4 Dec, agreed to implement controversial Integrated Border Management agreement, under which border and trade officials from both sides to work in coordination. Implementation started 10 Dec at 2 crossing points. Belgrade rejected Pristina’s claims that it would shortly be appointing diplomats, reiterated officials would be “liaison officers”. Pristina-Belgrade dialogue scheduled to continue 17 Jan. Serbian govt officials 17 Dec circulated long-awaited govt platform for negotiations, treating Kosovo as autonomous province, calling for Autonomous Community of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo; Thaçi dismissed plans. EU Council 12 Dec declined to give mandate for start of negotiations for Stabilisation and Association Agreement for Kosovo, called for progress on rule of law, public administration, minority protection, cooperation with EULEX and other areas. Public anger, protests after Supreme Court panel of majority EULEX judges late Nov ruled retrial of Klecka case involving PDK party VP Fatmir Limaj and several other former KLA fighters, ordered detention of Limaj.

    North Caucasus

      |  30 Dec 2012

    Unchanged

    In Kabardino-Balkaria republic (KBR), TV journalist Kazbek Gekkiyev shot dead in capital Nalchik 5 Dec. Govt minister injured in bomb attack near his house 6 Dec. State agricultural university principal and head of United Russia party in KBR parliament Boris Zherukov killed in his office 25 Dec. Authorities reported several militants killed in clashes with security forces in Tyrnyauz city 11-13 Dec, 1 police officer also killed; 1 militant reported killed in police operation in Elbrus district 14 Dec; 3 militants, including leader Amir Lampezhev, killed in Baksan district 26 Dec. Deputy head of Spiritual board of Muslims of North Ossetia Ibragim Dudarov killed in Vladikavkaz 26 Dec. In Dagestan, senior police official killed at his home in capital Makhachkala 9 Dec. 3 militants reported killed in shoot-out with police in Makhachkala 13 Dec. 5 police injured in ambush by suspected militants 18 Dec. 7 suspected militants killed in Makhachkala 29 Dec.

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

      |  30 Dec 2012

    Unchanged

    Continued uncertainty over Mostar city govt and budget after Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 28 Nov walked out of OHR-led negotiations among political parties. Republika Srpska VP Vlajki 12 Dec said entity “should declare independence”. Gunman who shot at U.S. embassy Oct 2011 jailed for 18 years.

    Georgia

      |  30 Dec 2012

    Unchanged

    Detentions and questionings of former middle- and high-ranking officials continued: former PM Merabishvili taken for questioning 1 Dec for using fake passport travelling to Armenia; 2 former ministers, several others arrested and released on bail later in month in corruption investigation. NATO SG Fogh Rasmussen 5 Dec indicated he was content with reassurances from new govt over arrests. Sharp spike in popularity ratings for Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream coalition since elections. Significant steps towards Georgia-Russia rapprochement, culminating in 14 Dec meeting in Geneva between Russian Deputy FM Grigory Karasin and Georgian PM’s Special Representative for relations with Russia Zurab Abashidze. Abashidze said meeting envisaged creating new channel of communication and political dialogue; sides agreed to continue direct talks without assistance of international mediators. Talks to focus on trade and humanitarian areas of cooperation, Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on back burner.

    Georgia

      |  1 Dec 2012

    Unchanged

    Despite agreement by new PM Ivanishvili and President Saakashvili to work together, signs of cracks emerging over budget and arrests of former govt officials. Tensions between ruling Georgian Dream coalition and President’s office ignited by dispute over 2013 State Budget, drafted 6 Nov, which saw funding for President’s Administration, National Security Council and Tbilisi municipality slashed. Saakashvili’s UNM slammed funding cuts as “politically motivated”. Arrest of former Interior Minister Bacho Akhalaia on charges of exceeding official powers and torture marked beginning of string of detentions of former interior ministry officials on charges of illegal confinement, illegal surveillance, damage of property, exceeding official powers. Govt responded to international, domestic concerns by promising to observe due process; Ivanishvili said he would not insist on impeachment of president, but his Georgian Dream parliamentary majority will initiate early adoption of constitutional changes set to significantly cut presidential powers. Ivanishvili 22 Nov said govt intends to establish relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia; also said ready to meet Russian officials, though would not visit Russia. New govt appointed Zurab Abashidze as special envoy to Georgian-Russian affairs; Abashidze proposed “new, independent” format for Moscow-Tbilisi talks. Reports that Russian embargo on Georgian wine, water may be lifted.

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    CrisisWatch N°114

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