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Myanmar

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Deadly intercommunal violence that broke out in March subsided; dozens of people arrested in wake of violence, trials of some have commenced. Former U.S. president Jimmy Carter visited early April, met with govt and opposition, called for end to sanctions, expressed concern over violence. EU lifted most sanctions 22 April citing “remarkable process of reform”. Same day BBC aired video allegedly showing images of violence and security forces inability or failure to intervene in March intercommunal violence in Meiktila, and Human Rights Watch published report alleging security forces complicity in what it termed ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims in 2012. Intercommunal violence broke out in Oakkan town near Rangoon 30 April, govt reported situation under control, no casualties. Official commission into 2012 Rakhine state clashes 29 April recommended improved humanitarian support for Rohingya IDPs, transparent addressing of their citizenship claims, increased security forces. President Thein Sein visited China 5 April for business summit, met with President Xi Jinping. Aung San Suu Kyi visited Japan, met PM Abe, Myanmar community.

Myanmar

  |  1 Apr 2013

Deteriorated

New outbreak of intercommunal violence in Meiktila town in central Myanmar 20-22 March; at least 40 people killed, hundreds of mainly Muslim buildings destroyed, mainly in attacks by Buddhist mobs; over 12,000 displaced, mostly Muslims. Some speculation that violence pre-planned by extremists. President Thein Sein 22 March imposed state of emergency in Meiktila, deployed military to restore calm. Violence then spread to other towns and villages in following days, no reported fatalities. At latest round of peace talks between govt and Kachin Independence Organization in Chinese border town Ruili 11 March, both sides committed to working towards ceasefire agreement; to resume discussions early April. Situation remains tense, but signs of de-escalating. Legislature 15 March unexpectedly announced formation of constitutional commission comprising representatives from different political parties and outside experts, to review 2008 constitution, identify provisions for possible future amendment. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK)-led official investigation commission into controversial Letpadaung copper mine project and police response to demonstrations released report 11 March, said police used smoke grenades containing white phosphorous, injuring demonstrators; recommended project not be cancelled. Led to demonstrations by local people against report and ASSK. ASSK’s National League for Democracy 9-10 March held first ever national congress: ASSK re-elected as party chair, most of previous Central Executive Committee also reappointed. President Thein started first official European tour 26 Feb, ahead of April review of EU sanctions; mid-March paid official visits to New Zealand, Australia.

Myanmar

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Peace process with ethnic armed groups received boost with resumption of dialogue between govt and Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), brokered by China, and beginning of political phase of process, with opening of political dialogue with United Nationalities Federal Council umbrella group, which includes KIO. KIO 1 Feb issued statement saying they would halt offensive military actions if army did likewise; first time KIO have offered to stop fighting. Two sides met 4 Feb for negotiations, issued joint statement agreeing to ease tensions, hold further peace talks. Aung San Suu Kyi offered to mediate talks, rejected by KIO. Govt and United Nationalities Federal Council met 20 Feb, discussed political objectives, framework for political dialogue, timeframe. No significant clashes reported during month. Govt 24 Jan indicated former telecommunication minister and several senior officials under investigation for corruption. President 5 Feb appointed member of opposition National Democratic Force to deputy minister post, first non-USDP cabinet member. President’s office 7 Feb announced formation of committee to “grant liberty to remaining political prisoners”. Group of Myanmar lawyers and international rights group 14 Feb issued results of investigation into injuries sustained by protesters, including monks, when security forces broke up protests at Letpadaung copper mine.

Myanmar

  |  1 Feb 2013

Deteriorated

Fighting between govt and Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) in Kachin state escalated, with violence reportedly displacing thousands. Govt forces used attack helicopters, fighter jets and artillery fire against KIO during month. KIO HQ in Laiza town on Chinese border shelled repeatedly; several shells landed in China, prompting official complaint. KIO reported 3 civilians killed in Laiza in shelling 14 Jan, 2 killed in explosion 22 Jan. Following capture of several KIO outposts, authorities 18 Jan announced unilateral ceasefire around Laiza; ceasefire broken as govt troops 20 Jan attacked KIO base on Hka Ya hilltop near town. Army 26 Jan captured Hka Ya 3km from Laiza. Govt forces late Jan said Kachin rebels set fire to shops in Hpakant; KIO claimed govt forces torched houses in village near Laiza. Month ended with reports govt and Kachin rebels agreed on new round of peace talks. President Thein Sein 5 Jan met new Karen National Union leadership in Naypyitaw. Govt 29 Jan lifted ban on public gatherings. Govt 19-20 Jan convened first Myanmar Development Cooperation Forum aiming to enhance donor-govt cooperation.

Myanmar

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Govt mid-Dec suggested further round of peace talks with Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) early Jan. However, fighting in Kachin state in north continued; heavy clashes 9-10 Dec in Pangwa, Lajayang regions. Myanmar army 28 Dec launched heavy attacks on base near KIO headquarters reportedly using attack helicopters and fighter jets, a potentially serious escalation. President Thein Sein 1 Dec appointed commission headed by Aung San Suu Kyi to investigate 29 Nov violent crackdown by security forces on protesters at Letpadaung copper mine in NW. Amid ongoing protests, govt 15 Dec apologised for injuring monks. Visiting UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos 7 Dec urged aid for Kachin IDPs in rebel-controlled areas, increased assistance for Rakhine IDP camps and better security for humanitarian workers in Rakhine State, where tensions still high. UN envoy Vijay Nambiar visited Rakhine State 16-20 Dec. UNGA 24 Dec expressed concern over Rakhine State violence, urged govt to improve situation of Rohingya Muslims. Following agreement with govt, ICRC 11 Dec announced it will resume detention visits to prisons, blocked since 2005. Following Jan 2012 ceasefire, Chin National Front armed group 9 Dec reached 27-point follow-up agreement with govt in Naypyitaw. Karen National Union (KNU) annual congress ended with election of Gen Mutu Say Poe as KNU chair, Kwe Htoo Win as general-secretary, Gen Saw Johnny as commander-in-chief of Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA); expected to take pragmatic approach to ongoing peace talks with govt. In speech to cabinet 26 Dec President announced “third phase of reform” aimed at tackling govt corruption.

Myanmar

  |  1 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Following renewed outbreak of conflict in Rakhine State late Oct, President Thein Sein 16 Nov held joint meeting with Buddhist and Muslim leaders to call for calm; sent letter to UNSG Ban pledging to address contentious issues, 20 Nov requested Indonesia’s help to resolve violence. Aung San Suu Kyi 7 Nov issued joint statement with ethnic minority parties calling on govt to deploy more troops in Rakhine State and address their concerns; 15 Nov blamed Myanmar govt and Bangladesh for Rohingya humanitarian crisis, said statelessness of Rohingya Muslims must be examined. Authorities early-month reportedly started operation to verify citizenship of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State. Court 21 Nov sentenced religious leader Dr Htun Aung to 12 years in jail for role in Rakhine State violence. U.S. president Obama visited country 19 Nov, first ever visit by sitting U.S. president; country also hosted PMs of Norway, Denmark, Sweden, New Zealand, plus EU president Barroso. Thein Sein 2 Nov signed into law new foreign investment law. Ahead of Obama’s visit, govt announced release of over 500 prisoners, including 66 alleged political prisoners. Deadly clashes continued between govt and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Hpakant jade mining area of Kachin State. Govt-KIA fighting reignited early-Nov in N Shan State; 8 soldiers reportedly killed. Thousands gathered at Monywa copper mine in NW 19-20 Nov to resume protests against seizure of land by company jointly owned by Myanmar military conglomerate and Chinese company; dozens of monks and protesters injured in violent crackdown by security forces 29 Nov.

Myanmar

  |  1 Nov 2012

Deteriorated

Renewed violence broke out involving Muslim and Buddhist communities in Rakhine State 21 Oct; official figures report death toll from latest outbreak of inter-communal tensions, mostly involving Muslim Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine, to be at least 89, with 136 injured, 5,351 houses torched; more than 30,000 officially displaced. Authorities 24 Oct imposed curfew in at least 2 towns, President Thein Sein 25 Oct ordered more security forces. Govt 30 Oct rejected ASEAN proposal to hold tripartite talks with UN to contain Rakhine violence. Thousands of protesters gathered 30 Oct in Ramree Island to demand extra security measures, separation of Muslims from Buddhist neighbourhoods; 1 killed after police allegedly fired on demonstrators. Hundreds of monks early Oct protested in Yangon and Sittwe against anti-Buddhist unrest in Rakhine State and Bangladesh. Thein Sein 15 Oct withdrew permission for Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to open liaison office in Yangon following Buddhist demonstrations. Deadly clashes continued between govt and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Hpakant jade mining area of Kachin State. Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), govt representatives met 30 Oct on Sino-Myanmar border for latest round of peace talks; KIO sent low-level delegation. Tensions within Karen National Union (KNU) as group 3 Oct sacked 3 senior members; reinstated them 29 Oct (one posthumously). Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 8 Oct declared National League for Democracy’s intention to try to amend constitution to allow her to run for president in 2015; Thein Sein said will accept her as president if elected. U.S. President Obama 5 Oct signed bill lifting restrictions on international financial institutions lending to Myanmar. U.S. delegation including high-ranking military visited mid-Oct for rights dialogue with leadership, military; senior U.S. official said country on “right track” ending military ties with DPRK.

Myanmar

  |  1 Oct 2012

Unchanged

Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 16 Sept visited U.S. for first time since her release; President Thein Sein 24 Sept made first U.S. visit. U.S. 19 Sept removed Thein Sein and lower house speaker Shwe Mann from sanctions list, 26 Sept announced easing of ban on imports from Myanmar; EU 17 Sept announced plans to lift trade barriers. Parliament 7 Sept approved 11 new ministers, auditor-general following early Sept cabinet reshuffle. Constitution Tribunal judges 6 Sept resigned after parliament voted to impeach them for incompetence. Govt 17 Sept announced release of 514 prisoners, including 88 political prisoners. Organisation of Islamic Cooperation delegation toured Rakhine State, 12 Sept signed agreement with govt to provide aid. In Kachin state clashes between govt troops, Kachin Independence Army (KIA) continued; Kachin National Organisation (KNO) 23 Sept urged UN “direct action” in open letter to UNSG Ban. 5,000 gathered 5-6 Sept at Monywa copper mine in NW to protest seizure of land by company; mine jointly owned by Myanmar military conglomerate and Chinese company.

Myanmar

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

Renewed clashes in Rakhine State between Rohingya Muslim, Rakhine Buddhist communities killed at least 13. President Thein Sein 10 Aug invited Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to investigate violence toward Rohingya Muslims, 17 Aug announced commission to examine situation, move welcomed by UNSG Ban. Court 24 Aug convicted 3 UN local staff for alleged involvement in June Rakhine State violence, all later pardoned. 6,000 reported displaced late Aug fleeing govt-Kachin Independence Army clashes near Hpakant Township. Navy chief Nyan Tun sworn in 15 Aug as VP; no official explanation given for withdrawal of Myint Swe’s candidature, unofficial reports say it relates to child’s foreign citizenship; Thein Sein 27 Aug announced first stage of significant cabinet reshuffle. Govt 20 Aug announced end to “pre-publication” press censorship, content restrictions remain; 28 Aug announced removal of 2,082 names from immigration blacklist. Govt 8 Aug permitted rallies commemorating anniversary of 1988 pro-democracy protests that were violently suppressed by govt. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK), Thein Sein met 12, 22 Aug; parliament 7 Aug appointed ASSK chairperson of Rule of Law and Stability Committee. First meeting of new central peace committee held 12 Aug; govt 26 Aug signed ceasefire agreement with Pa-O National Liberation Organization rebel group.

Myanmar

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

Resignation of VP Tin Aung Myint Oo 4 July officially announced; retired general Myint Swe nominated 10 July as replacement, but not confirmed due to possible constitutional issues. President Thein Sein 11 July claimed military no longer involved in policy-formation, 18 July discussed govt policies with opposition Group of Friends of Democracy Parties leaders. During Cambodia visit, Thein Sein 13 July met U.S. Sec of State Clinton, discussed ending economic isolation following 11 July announcement of end to U.S. investment ban; sanctions easing condemned by rights groups. UNHCR head Guterres 12 July met with Thein Sein, rejected proposal to resettle some Rohingyas in UNHCR camps or third country to resolve ethnic tensions. UN Special Rapporteur Quintana 30 July–1 Aug visited Rakhine state to investigate June ethnic violence. Sword-wielding mob 25 July murdered NLD member in Magwe; 2 arrested, 1 allegedly USDP member. Authorities 6-7 July reportedly detained 23 political activists prior to 50th anniversary commemorations of military crackdown on students, all later released. Thein Sein 3 July authorised release of 20 political prisoners. Censorship board 31 July indefinitely suspended 2 journals for violating media restrictions.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jul 2012

Unchanged Risk Alert

Ethnic tensions flared in Rakhine State, following late May rape, murder of Buddhist woman; revenge attack 3 June killed 10 Rohingya Muslims, followed by rioting, killing of at least 60 Buddhists, Muslims; UN estimated 90,000 displaced; govt 10 June declared state of emergency; U.S. embassy 19 June praised measured govt response to violence. Govt, Kachin Independence Army held two more rounds of informal talks 1, 20 June as fighting continued; govt 21 June overruled law banning Kachin Independence Organisation. Govt troops 16 June set alight Shan State Army-South base; rebel leaders said attack threatened May peace agreement. President Thein Sein 19 June announced “second wave of reforms” focusing on economic liberalisation. Press Scrutiny and Registration Department head Tint Swe late May announced end to media censorship from end June. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi met govt leaders across Europe during 14-25 June visit. Swiss govt 14 June announced ending of sanctions except arms embargo.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jun 2012

Unchanged

VP Tin Aung Myint Oo 3 May reportedly resigned on health grounds, govt yet to officially confirm. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi 2 May debuted in parliament, given passport for first time in 24 years ahead of May, June travel to Thailand, UK, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland. At least 31 killed early May in govt clashes with Kachin Independence Army (KIA); KIA rebels 15 May appealed to UNSG for UN observers to monitor conflict zone. President Thein Sein 3 May named as chairman of new peace team to negotiate with armed groups. Govt, Shan State Army rebels 19 May agreed to enforce ceasefire, eradicate drug production in area; armed clashes occurred 23 May. Rare protests in Yangon, Mandalay, other cities late May over electricity shortages, govt appealed for understanding. G8 leaders 19 May praised ongoing political reforms. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 17 May announced easing of investment ban, named new ambassador, called for release of remaining political prisoners. Following first official visit for 9 years, Amnesty International report released 24 May noted major human rights improvements in past year, but expressed concern over continued violations. During 14 May visit by South Korean President Lee, President Thein Sein pledged to abide by UNSC resolutions on DPRK’s nuclear program, halt weapons purchases from DPRK. MPs 10 May visited European Parliament, met with European Council President van Rompuy, EU High Representative Ashton.

Myanmar

  |  1 May 2012

Unchanged

Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD opposition party, won 43 of 45 available seats in 1 April by-elections; NLD temporarily boycotted resumption of parliament in dispute over language in swearing-in oath. During 3 day visit UNSG Ban 30 April addressed parliament, praised reforms. Diplomatic visits continued throughout month including by UK PM Cameron, Italian FM Terzi, EU High Representative Ashton. Western govts announced easing of sanctions, arms embargoes to remain; Karen National Union (KNU) 8 April cautioned against lifting sanctions too quickly. Japanese govt pledged to cancel $3.72bn debt, resume aid, loans during President Thein Sein’s 20-25 April Tokyo visit. KNU, govt 6 April signed 13-point agreement on peace process; KNU 7 April met with Thein Sein, 8 April with Suu Kyi; no progress on Kachin Independence Organisation talks, Thein Sein 30 April named new negotiating team; armed clashes continued.

Myanmar

  |  1 Apr 2012

Unchanged

As campaigning for 1 April parliamentary by-elections intensified, U.S., EU, Canada, Japan and Australia agreed to send observers following invitation by President Thein Sein. Govt 7 March agreed to ceasefire with Karenni National Progressive Party armed group, 8-9 March held inconclusive peace talks with Kachin Independence Army amid ongoing but reduced armed clashes. Phado Man Nyein Maung, senior rebel Karen National Union political figure, jailed 13 March for treason; pardoned 19 March to enable his participation in peace talks. President Thein Sein 1 March gave major speech to legislature, signalled strong commitment to democratic reforms. Foreign dignitaries visited throughout month including Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird, New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully; U.S. Special Envoy for Myanmar Derek Mitchell.

Myanmar

  |  1 Mar 2012

Unchanged

Govt 20 Feb lifted restrictions on election campaigning that prevented 3 planned National League for Democracy 14 Feb rallies after party publicly complained it was being denied use of venues. EU development commissioner Andris Piebalgs visited 12-14 Feb, announced €150mn in new aid over 2 years. Govt 21 Feb promised to “seriously consider” allowing Southeast Asian observers for 1 April by-elections. Burma Civil society delegation of political activists met U.S. Sec State Clinton 8 Feb during historic visit to U.S., discussed political prisoners, women’s rights, ethnic minorities with U.S. officials.

Myanmar

  |  1 Feb 2012

Improved

Significant progress in reform process as govt 12 Jan signed first ceasefire with main Karen rebel group, ending over 60 years of conflict; 13 Jan released 651 prisoners under new presidential pardon, some 300 political prisoners freed including most prominent political dissidents. Release followed 2 Jan amnesty for 900 mostly non-political prisoners. Amid continuing clashes in Kachin State, govt 18 Jan held inconclusive talks with Kachin Independence Army near Chinese border. Following prisoner release U.S. announced restoration of full diplomatic ties, exchange of ambassadors. EU 23 Jan agreed to suspend visa bans on leading politicians on basis of “remarkable” political reform; Australia 9 Jan announced easing of sanctions, removed some individuals from asset freeze list. Diplomatic visits included UK and French FMs, U.S. policy coordinator Derek Mitchell and U.S. envoy on human trafficking. Election Commission 30 Dec announced by-elections to be held 1 Apr; Aung San Suu Kyi 18 Jan submitted application to contest seat, 29 Jan started campaign tour.

Myanmar

  |  2 Jan 2012

Unchanged

Milestone visit by U.S. Sec State Clinton 30 Nov-2 Dec signaled U.S. ready to begin process of normalising relations; Clinton announced modest policy changes including inviting FM to Washington, U.S. support for multilateral assistance. Thai PM Yingluck 20 Dec offered support to Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) for upcoming by-elections during historic meeting in Yangon. Other diplomatic visits included Belarus and Bangladesh PMs, Japan, Indonesian and Singapore FMs. President Thein Sein 3 Dec signed law allowing peaceful demonstrations. Govt also announced magazines covering economic, business affairs no longer need to be submitted for censor approval. Political activists held event at Yangon monastery marking 20th anniversary of ASSK’s Nobel Peace Prize. Govt 2 Dec signed ceasefire agreement with Shan State Army (South). Thein Sein 10 Dec ordered military halt offensive actions, troop movements in Kachin State, granted UN humanitarian access to conflict areas in Kachin. Hostilities reported in northern Shan state between army and Kachin Independence Army. Following visit to Kachin Myanmar National Human Rights Commission made recommendations including increased assistance to IDPs. Authorities 16 Dec jailed Karen rebel leader Mahn Nyein Maung for 17 years for “unlawful association”.



Myanmar

  |  1 Dec 2011

Improved

Major political development marked by return of Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) to political process, decision by ASSK and other NLD leaders to contest seats in upcoming by-elections; 18 Nov confirmation that Myanmar to chair ASEAN in 2014 also reflection of positive changes in recent months, amid hopes it will drive further reform. Flurry of diplomatic visits to Myanmar, including U.S. Myanmar envoy Derek Mitchell in 3rd visit 2-4 Nov, UN Special Envoy Vijay Nambiar, Norwegian and UK development ministers, German Deputy FM. U.S. Sec State Clinton commenced visit to Myanmar 30 Nov, first such visit for over 50 years; UNSG Ban announced intention to visit as soon as possible. Chinese VP Xi Jinping 28 Nov called for increased military ties. President Thein Sein 4 Nov signed amendments to political party registration law, addressing concerns of opposition NLD. NLD 18 Nov announced intention to register as legal political party, submitted application 25 Nov. Parliament 24 Nov passed bill allowing peaceful protests. Situation surrounding ethnic conflict remains tense, however some progress in president’s peace initiative. Karen armed group Kloh Htoo Baw 3 Nov announced it had signed ceasefire with govt. Series of meetings in Thailand between presidential envoy and several armed groups; Shan State Army-South 19 Nov said agreement on ceasefire reached, said envoy conveyed commitment to holding national conference on political solutions to ethnic divisions. Some other armed groups agreed to sign ceasefires in near future. Fighting continued in Kachin areas between KIO, govt forces. KIO delegation met with presidential envoy, held further talks in China 29 Nov.

Myanmar

  |  1 Nov 2011

Unchanged

Authorities 12 Oct released more than 6,000 prisoners, including 200-300 political prisoners, in 2nd such release since new govt took office; indicated more to follow. Aung San Suu Kyi’s (ASSK) NLD said all political prisoners should have been freed. ASSK 28 Oct met with govt liaison minister Aung Kyi for 4th time in recent months; along with other NLD leaders has indicated willingness to consider registering party to contest upcoming by-elections conditional on changes to political party law, currently being discussed in legislature. Govt 10 Oct enacted new labour law granting workers right to form trade unions and strike, ending 50 years of restrictions on freedom of association. During late-Oct visit U.S. Special Rep for Burma Derek Mitchell met senior officials, ASSK. Thai PM Yingluck made first visit to Myanmar 5 Oct. President Thein Sein mid-Oct visited India, countries agreed to expand trade, co-operation in oil and gas exploration, India pledged $500mn credit for infrastructure projects. Fighting escalated mid-Oct in parts of Kachin State, resulting in casualties on both sides, further displacement; also reports of rights abuses.

Myanmar

  |  1 Oct 2011

Unchanged

Continued signs of improvements in political freedoms, human rights, economic reforms, reflected in positive political developments, increased international engagement. Govt 5 Sept formed National Human Rights Commission, made up mainly of retired govt officials, former diplomats, including some members from ethnic, religious minorities. Myanmar journal 5 Sept published uncensored article by Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK), first to be published domestically for 23 years. ASSK 15 Sept told supporters she believes “now is a situation where changes are likely to take place”. Authorities removed blocks on international news websites. President Thein Sein 30 Sept announced suspension of controversial hydroelectric dam construction in Kachin state. Newly-confirmed U.S. Special Representative for Burma Derek Mitchell 9-14 Sept visited Myanmar, met ministers, house speakers, ASSK and other opposition members, civil society. FM Wunna Maung Lwin 29 Sept held talks in Washington with senior U.S. officials. Following 2-day visit EU aid chief Kristalina Georgieva indicated she had obtained commitments on improving humanitarian access. Government 8 Sept signed preliminary peace agreements with Wa and Mongla armed groups. Situation in other ethnic areas remained tense; renewed clashes 23 Sept between govt troops and Kachin Independence Army in northern Shan State.

Myanmar

  |  1 Sep 2011

Unchanged

Continued signs of improving relationship between govt and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK): ASSK 19 Aug for first time met new President Thein Sein, said “happy and satisfied” with meeting; 14 Aug visited Bago in first political trip since 2010 release from house arrest. During late-month visit UN rights envoy 24 Aug met ASSK, 25 Aug urged govt to release all political prisoners. Lower house of parliament 26 Aug called for general amnesty for such prisoners. Thein Sein continued economic, small-scale political reforms, but yet to address release of political prisoners. Govt 18 Aug offered peace talks with all ethnic rebel groups through respective local executives; negotiations ongoing with Kachin Independence Organisation. Local Shan NGOs 10 Aug reported some 30,000 displaced by clashes in NE since March, alleged rape, abuses by army. State media 5 Aug claimed ethnic Kachin rebels killed 7 Chinese workers in Moemauk; rebels claimed those killed were soldiers.

Myanmar

  |  1 Aug 2011

Unchanged

Clashes between Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and army lessened during month, but tensions remained high: KIA refused to sign new ceasefire agreement unless accompanied by political dialogue. KIA 15 July released documents allegedly proving atrocities against KIA, Kachin civilians by army over past decade. Army 19 July reportedly launched attacks against Shan State Army North, former ceasefire group.  Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 28 July called on govt to implement ceasefire, open peace talks with ethnic groups. President Thein Sein during month implemented package of socio-economic reforms, including reducing export tariffs, increasing pensions. ASSK  3 July made “private” visit to Bagan, first trip outside Yangon since Nov 2010 release from house arrest. ASSK 25 July met Labour Minister Aung Kyi, first meeting with official from new govt; Aung Kyi said meeting “first step” to future dialogue.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jul 2011

Deteriorated

Worst clashes in country since 2009 as govt and Kachin ceasefire group fought from mid-month, with serious chance of escalation. Clashes erupted after Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) rejected govt 11 June deadline to withdraw from strategic base near hydroelectric dams under construction by Chinese firms, followed army’s 9 June alleged torture and execution of KIO official. Fighting later spread to Kachin areas of Shan state; rights groups reported at least 20 killed, tens of thousands displaced. 4 bombs 24 June exploded in Naypyitaw, Mandalay, Pyinoolwin cities, wounding 2; state media accused 3 ethnic Shans. 3 wounded in 11 June Naypyitaw market bomb blast, perpetrators unknown. Govt 11 June eased strict censorship of some media publications, but not news titles. Indian FM Krishna visited Myanmar 20 June, first visit by Indian official since new govt took office.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jun 2011

Unchanged

Govt 16 May announced 1-year cut from all prison terms: some 14,600 released, but only 47 political prisoners; rights groups criticised as too limited. Govt 6 May made formal request to chair ASEAN in 2014, ASEAN yet to confirm; rights groups urged against. Following mid-month visit, UNSG Chief of Staff Vijay Nambiar said “encouraging signs” from new govt, but urged it to implement its promises of development, limiting corruption. 2 killed in 18 May train bombing outside Naypyidaw; police blamed Karen National Union militants. Sporadic clashes between ethnic armies and govt troops continued in Karen and southern Shan states; hundreds displaced.

Myanmar

  |  1 May 2011

Unchanged

Govt 31 March confirmed ex-ruler Than Shwe had relinquished all formal power during 30 March transition to nominally civilian govt, but unclear what extent of Than Shwe’s future influence will be. In 30 March inaugural speech, new President Thein Sein set out govt’s policy for coming terms, called for cooperation with “good-hearted” elements of opposition; said will work to end high-level corruption in govt. Jia Qinglin, fourth highest-ranking Chinese govt official, visited Myanmar 5 Apr. EU 12 Apr renewed Myanmar sanctions, but suspended visa ban on FM, civilian members of new govt, to encourage dialogue. U.S. President Obama 15 Apr appointed Pentagon official Derek Mitchell as first ever Myanmar special envoy, subject to Senate confirmation; opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi welcomed nomination.

Myanmar

  |  1 Apr 2011

Unchanged

Junta, or State Peace and Development Council, officially disbanded 30 March as it handed over power to new govt and President Thein Sein; new govt, parliament nominally civilian but overwhelmingly dominated by junta proxy party USDP. Main parliamentary opposition parties 11 March called on EU to lift all sanctions, comes in context of annual EU review of Myanmar policy. NLD, banned party of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, had supported continuation of sanctions, and on 27 March called for “urgent dialogue” with junta. Junta during month for first time made state budget publically available: 19.5% of budget spent on military, lower than previous estimates;  NLD 4 March criticised new “Special Funds Law” allowing army chief to spend state money without parliamentary oversight.

Myanmar

  |  1 Mar 2011

Unchanged

Parliament 4 Feb elected ex-PM Thein Sein new President, 2 high-ranking ex-military officials as VPs; all 3 members of junta proxy party USDP. U.S. State Dept 16 Feb voiced concern for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s safety after threats against her published in state media for her support of sanctions. Suu Kyi’s NLD party 7 Feb called on West to maintain sanctions .

Myanmar

  |  1 Feb 2011

Unchanged

New parliament convened 31 Jan, will elect new govt over coming weeks; MPs 1 Feb said junta leader Than Shwe not among presidential candidates, suggesting he will no longer be country’s official ruler. Junta 21 Jan named 388 officers to fill 25% of seats allocated to military in upper and lower house and regional, state parliaments. ASEAN FMs 16 Jan called for international sanctions on Myanmar to be lifted, followed earlier similar joint request from main ethnic parties; NDF, DP parties echoed call 20 Jan. EU 19 Jan announced internal review of effectiveness of sanctions, economic impact on population. NGO Physicians for Human Rights 19 Jan reported “widespread human rights abuses” by military in Chin state. Clashes between army and DKBA reportedly intensified in Karen state during month. Supreme Court 28 Jan upheld dissolution of Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD party.

Myanmar

  |  3 Jan 2011

Unchanged

UN human rights expert on Myanmar 13 Dec called on govt to release estimated 2,200 remaining political prisoners; followed 8 Dec death of imprisoned monk, 145th prisoner to die in captivity since 1988. State media 8 Dec reported turnout in Nov election 77%; junta leader Than Shwe 2 Dec hailed widely-criticised election as “successful”, said Burma on course to complete “roadmap to democracy” in 2011. Clashes between army and Karen ceasefire groups continued during month: 1 officer reportedly killed in Phaluu early month; hundreds displaced across border into Thailand.

Myanmar

  |  1 Dec 2010

Unchanged

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi released from house arrest 12 Nov: called for unity among pro-democracy groups, said open to talks with junta, willing to moderate her opposition to sanctions. 7 Nov elections criticised as fraudulent amidst widespread reports of manipulation, including advance voting, intimidation, fraud during count. Junta proxy party USDP won 80% of seats in Upper and Lower Houses, but claimed marginally less votes in ethnic regions than in heartland. Junta 26 Nov introduced laws restricting free speech and banning protest in parliament. 3 killed in 8 Nov post-election clashes between army and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) around Mywaddy town; more than 20,000 fled across Thai border, but most returned within days. Further 1,000 displaced after renewed fighting 29 Nov.

  • Comment by Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt (Crisis Group), “Forget About the Sham Burmese Elections”, Foreign Policy, 5 Nov. 2010.
  • “Suu Kyi softens stand on sanctions” , Al Jazeera, 14 Nov. 2010.
  • For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°112, China’s Myanmar Strategy: Elections, Ethnic Politics and Economics, 21 Sept. 2010.

Myanmar

  |  1 Nov 2010

Unchanged

Junta 18 Oct said foreign journalists, observers will be banned from monitoring 7 Nov elections. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi 5 Oct sued junta before Supreme Court over its dissolution of NLD party ahead of elections. Suu Kyi 13 Oct said she will not vote in elections. UN human rights envoy Tomas Ojea Quintana 21 Oct called election process “deeply flawed”, urged govt to release some 2,100 political prisoners before vote; UNSG Ban urged junta to free Suu Kyi ahead of polls, said junta’s refusal to cooperate with international community “deeply frustrating”. USDP, proxy party for junta, widely criticised for breaching campaign laws, including pressuring civil servants for their votes, using state funds for campaigning, intimidating voters. Tensions increased in Kachin State: govt 19 Oct arrested 3 Kachin Independence Army (KIA) members; KIA same day surrounded military camp in north.

Myanmar

  |  1 Oct 2010

Unchanged

State media announced voting in 7 Nov election to be cancelled in 6 out of 1,163 constituencies, all of them in insurgency-plagued ethnic areas in East, including 4 Wa areas, 2 regional legislative seats in Kachin and KIO areas. Move criticised as excluding millions from poll already seen as undemocratic; media also reported decision to refuse to register Kachin independent candidates. State media 14 Sept reported main opposition NLD officially dissolved for failing to register on time; 9 other parties also banned. Junta 30 Sept announced will release NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi 13 Nov. Junta leader Than Shwe met with Chinese President Hu Jintao 8 Sept during state visit to China.

Myanmar

  |  1 Sep 2010

Unchanged

Govt 13 Aug set 7 Nov date for general election. At least 12 senior junta officials stepped down 28 Aug to stand in elections; unclear if junta no.3 Thura Shwe Mann among them, but state media 31 Aug denied reports that junta leader Than Shwe had left post. Govt-run Election Commission 19 Aug announced stringent poll restrictions: candidates must seek permission to campaign 1 week in advance; speeches that “tarnish” military rule forbidden. Pro-democracy UDP party head Phyo Min Thein resigned 5 Aug, said election rules too biased towards junta. UWSA, largest armed ethnic group, 2 Aug said it will ban any “election activities” in areas under its control in northeast. U.S. 18 Aug said will back creation of UN-led commission to investigate war crimes by junta. 2 killed in 6 Aug blast in Myawaddy, Karen militants suspected.

Myanmar

  |  1 Aug 2010

Unchanged

National Democratic Front (NDF), splinter group from officially disbanded opposition NLD, 9 July received govt permission to form new party; NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi criticised NDF’s decision to take part in upcoming election, including use of NLD straw hat symbol for campaigning. ASEAN FMs 20 July applied strong pressure on Myanmar to hold “free, fair and inclusive” elections. Influential govt-controlled social organisation USDA disbanded 6 July, transferred its assets to army’s political party USDP; rights groups highly critical. U.S. Senate 22 July voted to extend by 1 year ban on imports from Myanmar. Win Htein, former aide to Suu Kyi, released from prison 15 July after completing 14-year sentence. India, Myanmar signed new security pact 27 July following 4-day official visit to India of junta leader Than Shwe.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jul 2010

Unchanged

Election preparations continued despite no announcement of date; election commission issued directive banning marching and chanting during rallies. Reports several registered political parties unable to afford campaign materials seeking allies to meet election costs. U.S. Asst Sec State Schwartz 10 June expressed concern upcoming polls would change little for refugees in camps along Thai border. U.S. Senator Webb 3 June cancelled planned visit after early month reports govt working with N Korea to develop nuclear program; govt 11 June rejected reports as “politically motivated”. Karen National Liberation Army 10 June claimed it had killed at least 12 govt soldiers in Karen state. NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi 19 June celebrated 65th birthday under house arrest.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jun 2010

Unchanged

Opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) officially disbanded 6 May after March decision to boycott polls set for later this year over restrictive electoral laws. Several cabinet ministers resigned from military during month in preparation for elections; PM Thein Sein launched campaign 20 May after late Apr registering new Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). U.S. Asst Sec State Campbell 10 May met govt officials and opposition including Aung San Suu Kyi; expressed “profound disappointment” about election preparations; U.S. 14 May extended sanctions. Police chief 5 May announced arrest of suspect linked to Apr Rangoon bomb blasts; said 4 members of Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors involved.

Myanmar

  |  1 May 2010

Unchanged

10 reported killed, 94 wounded in 3 Rangoon bomb blasts during 15 Apr New Year celebrations raising fears of election violence; no claims of responsibility. Followed by series of blasts at controversial hydropower project in north 17 Apr; unconfirmed reports 4 workers killed. 1 reported killed in 28 Apr blast in Kayah state. Detained opposition NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi 7 Apr said she was pleased with party’s March decision to boycott elections; poll date not yet set. PM Thein Sein, some 20 other junta figures 26 Apr resigned from army in order to contest election as civilians, 29 Apr applied to register new party with electoral commission.

Myanmar

  |  1 Apr 2010

Unchanged

Opposition NLD 29 March voted to boycott elections planned for late 2010 after junta 8 March passed new electoral laws; laws formally annulled NLD’s 1990 election win, banned anyone with criminal convictions from belonging to political party (barring opposition NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners from politics), gave NLD 7 May deadline to register or face dissolution. Suu Kyi 23 March said she was personally against participation in polls. U.S. Asst Sec State Campbell called laws “a setback”. UNSG Ban 10 March said laws fail to meet “expectations” for inclusive poll. Democracy activist Nyi Nyi Aung, imprisoned Feb, released and deported 18 March. UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar Tomas Ojea Quintana 5 March reported on “systematic” human rights violations. Continued reports of army build up in ethnic border regions increased fears of election-related violence. 20 soldiers reportedly killed 19 March by ethnic rebels in Shan state. 

Myanmar

  |  1 Mar 2010

Unchanged

Following 15-19 Feb visit, UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar Tomas Ojea Quintana said human rights situation remained serious; Quintana denied access to opposition NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi during visit. NLD deputy leader U Tin Oo released 14 Feb after nearly 7 years in prison and house arrest. NLD 10 Feb said Suu Kyi had not yet decided whether party would participate in elections scheduled for this year; junta leader Than Shwe 12 Feb insisted elections would take place “soon”; some analysts expect late 2010. Supreme Court 26 Feb rejected Suu Kyi’s latest appeal against her extended house arrest. Democracy campaigner and U.S. citizen Nyi Nyi Aung sentenced to 5 years prison 10 Feb on charges including carrying false identity card; U.S. embassy urged release, saying charges “politically motivated”. Thai govt 8 Feb suspended planned return of 1,700 Karen refugees to Myanmar amid international concern for their safety.

Myanmar

  |  1 Feb 2010

Unchanged

Junta leader Than Shwe, in 4 Jan Independence Day remarks, urged Burmese to make “correct choices” at scheduled election later this year, did not specify a date; insisted govt’s 7-stage roadmap only way to achieve democracy. Supreme Court 17 Jan began hearing NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s final appeal against her extended house arrest; Home Affairs Minister Maung Oo 21 Jan reportedly said Suu Kyi would be freed in Nov; NLD dismissed comment as “nothing new”. U.S. Asst Sec State Campbell 19 Jan said deepened U.S. diplomatic engagement with junta had so far produced “mixed bag” of results, said further talks planned for near future. 2 state officials reportedly sentenced to death for leaking details to Burmese exile media of secret govt trips to N Korea, Russia. Karen National Union rejected govt claims its members responsible for 26 Jan bomb blasts in Kyaukkyi. Reports late month govt attacks forced more than 2,000 ethnic Karen to flee in east.

Myanmar

  |  1 Feb 2010

Unchanged

Junta leader Than Shwe, in 4 Jan Independence Day remarks, urged Burmese to make “correct choices” at scheduled election later this year, did not specify a date; insisted govt’s 7-stage roadmap only way to achieve democracy. Supreme Court 17 Jan began hearing NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s final appeal against her extended house arrest; Home Affairs Minister Maung Oo 21 Jan reportedly said Suu Kyi would be freed in Nov; NLD dismissed comment as “nothing new”. U.S. Asst Sec State Campbell 19 Jan said deepened U.S. diplomatic engagement with junta had so far produced “mixed bag” of results, said further talks planned for near future. 2 state officials reportedly sentenced to death for leaking details to Burmese exile media of secret govt trips to N Korea, Russia. Karen National Union rejected govt claims its members responsible for 26 Jan bomb blasts in Kyaukkyi. Reports late month govt attacks forced more than 2,000 ethnic Karen to flee in east.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jan 2010

Unchanged

In 3rd meeting with govt since Oct, NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi 9 Dec held talks with labour minister and her official govt liaison. State media 9 Dec called Suu Kyi’s Nov offers to meet junta leader Than Shwe and help lift sanctions “highly questionable”. Suu Kyi permitted to leave compound to meet with senior opposition NLD officials 16 Dec, discussed reorganisation of party. Supreme Court 22 Dec agreed to hear appeal against her extended house arrest. UNGA 24 Dec passed resolution condemning rights violations in Myanmar. UNSG Ban 3 Dec announced UN special envoy Gambari to step down to take position as head of UN Sudan mission; no replacement named. At least 7 killed by bomb in market in Karen state 19 Dec; junta blamed Karen National Union. UNODC 14 Dec reported ethnic groups had increased opium production to buy weapons.

Myanmar

  |  1 Dec 2009

Unchanged

In highest-level visit in 14 years, U.S. Asst Sec State Campbell 3 Nov met PM Gen Thein Sein, 4 Nov held talks with NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi; junta leader Than Shwe reportedly snubbed delegation. Campbell’s deputy Scott Marciel later said U.S. to maintain existing sanctions pending progress. Meeting Thein Sein at ASEAN conference in Singapore 15 Nov, U.S. President Obama called for release of all political prisoners including Suu Kyi. U.S. Sec State Clinton 11 Nov urged China, India to push junta for reforms. Suu Kyi 9 Nov expressed support for U.S. policy of direct engagement, thanked junta for allowing visit; 11 Nov sent letter to regime requesting meeting with Than Shwe. UNGA committee for human rights 19 Nov passed resolution condemning regime for abuses, called for 2010 elections to be inclusive. State media 10 Nov reported some separatist armed groups agreed to become border guards as part of govt plan to incorporate their militias.

Myanmar

  |  1 Nov 2009

Unchanged

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi 3 Oct met labour minister, her official govt liaison, in 1st meeting with govt since Jan 2008, restated 25 Sept offer to help end sanctions; 9 Oct discussed sanctions with U.S., EU, Australian diplomats. Yangon court 2 Oct rejected appeal against her extended house arrest. U.S. 31 Oct announced Asst Sec State Campbell to visit Myanmar early Nov as part of new policy of dialogue alongside sanctions; also due to meet with Suu Kyi. ASEAN leaders 25 Oct welcomed U.S. policy shift, called for 2010 elections to be inclusive; PM Gen. Thein Sein promised ASEAN fair elections, did not say whether Suu Kyi would be allowed to participate. UN special rapporteur on human rights Quintana 22 Oct called on govt to release all political prisoners ahead of elections. Reports emerged of increase in arrests of activists, journalists. Thein Sein and Chinese PM Wen Jiabao 24 Oct agreed to cooperate on border stability after late Aug conflict between Myanmar army, Kokang rebels. Mid-month tensions with Bangladesh over disputed maritime boundaries led to troop build-up on both sides of border.

Myanmar

  |  1 Oct 2009

Unchanged

U.S. Sec State Clinton 23 Sept announced plans for engagement with junta, said sanctions will continue alongside direct talks. Asst Sec State Campbell 28 Sept confirmed start of dialogue, pledged increased humanitarian assistance, 29 Sept met with Burmese UNGA delegation. Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi 24 Sept announced support for U.S. policy shift, said opposition groups need to be part of talks. Speaking before UNGA, PM Gen. Thein Sein 28 Sept demanded end to “unjust” sanctions; met with UNSG Ban. Military govt 18 Sept announced amnesty for 7,114 prisoners, coinciding with 21st anniversary of junta takeover; 25 political prisoners released, including 2 journalists, NLD member Nine Nine. UNSG Ban, NLD welcomed amnesty, continued to call for Suu Kyi release . Suu Kyi’s lawyers 3 Sept filed appeal against her Aug house arrest conviction; court to deliver verdict 2 Oct. China 1 Sept said 2,800 of estimated 37,000 Burmese refugees displaced by Aug conflict between govt and Kokang rebels had returned. UNHCR 2 Sept reported no response from China to its request for access to refugees. Seven small bombs exploded in Yangon suburbs 16, 17 Sept; no casualties, no claim of responsibility.

Myanmar

  |  1 Sep 2009

Unchanged

Trial of NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, charged with breaching terms of house arrest in May, ended 11 Aug with Suu Kyi sentenced to further 18 months in detention. Verdict widely denounced as tactic by military junta to prevent Suu Kyi participating in 2010 elections; greeted with EU announcement it would toughen sanctions; France and UK call for global arms and economic embargoes; and widespread calls, including from UNSG Ban and Philippines president Arroyo, for Suu Kyi’s release. Thai FM Kasit Piromya 14 Aug said Bangkok calling for ASEAN request for Suu Kyi’s release, while Jakarta 21 Aug reported Southeast Asian officials to pressure FMs for ASEAN call for her release. 13 August UNSC statement expressed serious concern over conviction and its political impact, but did not overtly call for release. U.S. Senator Jim Webb mid-Aug met with Gen Than Shwe and Suu Kyi, fuelling speculation over imminent change in U.S. Burma policy. Human Rights Watch 14 Aug reported more than 10,000 displaced in previous 3 weeks by army attacks on ethnic Shan in northeast. Over 30,000 reportedly crossed border to China fleeing late-month fighting between govt and Kokang rebels; 26 soldiers, at least 8 rebels killed in fighting, and 2 Chinese killed, 15 injured by Burmese cannon fire and shooting into China. Myanmar apologized; China urged Myanmar to end military operations, safeguard stability.

Myanmar

  |  1 Aug 2009

Unchanged

UNSG Ban in early-July Burma visit met twice with Gen Than Shwe, urged junta to announce date for elections, engage in national dialogue, allow re-registration of all political parties, release political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi; received no concrete commitments from govt, was denied access to Suu Kyi. Military junta 13 July said preparing amnesty offer for political prisoners in response to Ban’s request. Trial of Suu Kyi, charged with breaking terms of house arrest in May, resumed 10 July. Final arguments began 24 July; trial adjourned 31 July with expectation of verdict on 11 Aug. UK official 18 July said EU will impose new sanctions on Burma if Suu Kyi not freed. U.S. Sec State Clinton 22 July appealed to junta to free Suu Kyi, citing possible benefits including direct investment.

 

Myanmar

  |  1 Jul 2009

Unchanged

Final hearing in trial of NLD leader Aung Sun Suu Kyi postponed 3 June to allow defence appeal against late-May motion barring defence witnesses. Court 9 June readmitted 1 witness, ban on 2 others upheld; trial to resume 3 July. Donors meeting 10 June in Bangkok warned of trial’s effect on post-Nargis cyclone aid. Army launched new offensive against pro-independence Karen National Union (KNU) 3 June; Thai army reported 3,000 Karen fled to Thailand. UN Special Advisor Ibrahim Gambari visited late-month, prior to planned 3 July visit by UNSG Ban.

Myanmar

  |  1 Jun 2009

Deteriorated

NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi on trial for violating terms of house arrest after American national allegedly swam to her home 4 May; with house arrest due to expire 27 May, critics claimed incident pretext to keep her in jail during 2010 elections. Trail began 18 May behind closed doors at Insein jail, Rangoon. Proceedings drew international condemnation and calls for Suu Kyi’s immediate release, including unusually strong 10 May ASEAN statement, UNSC statement 22 May and from EU ministers 25 May. Govt 20 May allowed diplomats, journalists to attend trial, allowed Suu Kyi to speak to 3 foreign diplomats, but outsiders barred again 21 May. Suu Kyi proclaimed innocence 22 May; faces up to 5 years imprisonment if found guilty. Ruling junta claimed dissident group All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF) planted bomb in train station in new capital Naypyidaw 24 May.

  • “Trial may further isolate Burma”, Washington Post, 26 May 2009.
  • For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°161, Burma/Myanmar After Nargis: Time to Normalise Aid Relations, 20 Oct. 2008.

Myanmar

  |  1 May 2009

Unchanged

EU FMs 27 Apr decided to extend sanctions against Burma, renew calls for release of political prisoners. NLD 29 Apr said will consider taking part in elections if ruling junta meets demands including release of political prisoners, constitutional change, international observers. Vice chairman of ruling junta 11 Apr reportedly told new officers their responsibility to ensure country’s transition to democracy.

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CrisisWatch N°114

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