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Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  2 May 2016

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Heavy fighting erupted between Armenian-backed separatists and Azerbaijani forces in separatist region in early hours of 2 April, claiming dozens of lives in most serious escalation since 1994 ceasefire; reported dead mostly Azerbaijani servicemen, N-K forces and two Armenian servicemen, as well as around a dozen civilians. Each side accused other of instigating outbreak of fighting, which included rocket attacks, tanks and helicopters, and destroyed homes and infrastructure including Azerbaijani power station. OSCE Minsk Group 2 April called for end to hostilities, and entire group met 5 April to push for de-escalation. Clashes continued across line of contact despite declaration of Russian-brokered truce 5 April, with both Azerbaijani and Armenian-backed sides accusing each other of violating ceasefire, underlining risk of further fighting. N-K de facto authorities reported several fighters killed by Azerbaijani gunfire in several incident during month; Baku said Azerbaijani soldier killed 14 April, one civilian killed and eight injured by artillery strike from N-K 28 April. Russian PM Medvedev visited both countries to urge end to conflict early April; Iran also offered to help mediate tensions. Minsk Group co-chairs visited Baku and Yerevan to put process back on track.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Apr 2016

Unchanged
Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged accusations of ceasefire violations during month. Azerbaijan reported its army fired on Armenian positions in NK 10 March, claiming over ten Armenian soldiers killed; N-K authorities denied Azerbaijani claims that their forces were targeting civilians in Aqdam area, accused Azerbaijani forces of violating ceasefire and denied sustaining losses. Baku reported two Azerbaijani soldiers killed by Armenian army 27 March, Armenia denied, said Azerbaijan attacked villages.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Mar 2016

Unchanged

U.S. intelligence chief 9 Feb warned Azerbaijan’s military build-up and deteriorating economy raise risk of conflict escalating. Azerbaijan and Armenia continued to trade accusations of ceasefire violations. Baku reported multiple deaths, including: Azerbaijani soldier killed in clash near Armenian border 3 Feb, three Armenian soldiers also allegedly killed; at least five Armenian soldiers killed 12 Feb in clash near N-K. Armenia and N-K de facto officials refuted claims; N-K officials reported Azerbaijani forces 12 Feb killed civilian, and one N-K soldier killed 18 Feb. At OSCE-organised seminar 18 Feb Armenian official said country will move to more active deterrence in dealing with Azerbaijani troops in N-K. OSCE monitoring mission of N-K and Azerbaijan contact line 18 Feb reported no ceasefire violations.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Feb 2016

Unchanged
Armenia and Azerbaijan continued to accuse each other of ceasefire violations; Nagorno-Karabakh de facto authorities reported Armenian soldier killed by Azeri troops along line of contact 9 Jan. Iran 27 Jan again offered to mediate between Yerevan and Baku to resolve dispute.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  4 Jan 2016

Unchanged

N-K de facto officials reported one of their soldiers killed in clash with Azerbaijani forces 4 Dec; Azerbaijan accused NK forces of attempted attack on its positions, said one of its officers wounded. Azerbaijan reported one officer killed in shootout along contact line with NK 7 Dec. Baku 9 Dec reported it had used tanks to shell NK positions for first time in 21 years, in response to Armenian mortar fire; one Armenian soldier killed. Armenian and Azerbaijan presidents met in Berne, Switzerland 19 Dec to discuss NK conflict, first meeting since Oct 2014, under OSCE Minsk Group auspices; no concrete progress reported. UNSG Ban urged sides to cooperate with Minsk Group on de-escalation of conflict, avoid new violence. Sec Gen of Collective Security Treaty Organization 28 Dec said NK conflict source of great concern.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Dec 2015

Unchanged

Azerbaijan continued to trade accusations of breaking ceasefire along contact line; OSCE sent monitors to front line. Azerbaijan said its forces shot dead two Armenian soldiers and wounded several in response to what it claimed was attempted attack on its positions 12 Nov; 30 Nov said Armenian forces killed an Azerbaijani soldier in shootout. OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs travelled to region later Oct, met with leaders in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh, discussed concerns over mounting tensions. Armenian officials 19 Nov announced presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet in Dec. Russian President Putin 11 Nov formally agreed to begin negotiations on joint Russian-Armenian air defence system.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  2 Nov 2015

Unchanged

Russian foreign ministry 14 Oct urged parties to conflict to renounce use of force and find compromise, following recent escalation in violence along the line of contact; U.S. member of Congress also called for measure to de-escalate aggression.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Oct 2015

Unchanged
Ceasefire violations along contact line continued, including reported use of heavy weapons and civilian casualties. NK de facto authorities 13 Sept held local elections, denounced as illegal by EU, U.S. and Turkey among others. Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs met in presence of OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in New York 25 Sept; co-chairs expressed concern over rising tensions, discussed planned visit to region. Both sides held large-scale military exercises: following planned Armenian drills 3-6 Sept, Azerbaijan launched exercises involving 65,000 troops, 700 armoured vehicles and heavy weaponry 6-14 Sept. Sargsyan 7 Sept met with Russian President Putin, said Moscow will lend Armenia $200mn to modernise army.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Sep 2015

Unchanged

Amid intensifying tensions along contact line and accusations of ceasefire violations on both sides, Azerbaijan defence minister 6 Aug said country prepared to use force to take control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  3 Aug 2015

Unchanged

Tensions along contact line increased: Azerbaijan defence ministry 16 July announced “intense” military exercises with heavy artillery, told hospitals to be ready for “possible military action”; Armenia 2 July announced it received $200m Russian loan to buy weapons, modernise army. One Azeri, five Armenian soldiers reportedly killed in clash along contact line 25 July; Azerbaijan 29 July said it shot down Armenian drone near contact line, NK de facto authorities denied. European Council President Donald Tusk said status quo in NK unacceptable to EU, peaceful settlement a priority.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jul 2015

Unchanged

European Court of Human Rights 16 June issued two decisions recognising that Armenia and Azerbaijan violated property and other rights of persons displaced during NK conflict in early 1990s.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jun 2015

Unchanged

NK de facto authorities 3 May held “parliamentary elections”. Russian and Azerbaijani FMs 25 May met to discuss NK, said time to reach agreement.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  30 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Tensions, clashes along contact line continue, including two Armenian soldiers reportedly killed 7 April in two separate incidents; Azerbaijani soldier reported killed 16 April. Armenian FM met with Russian counterpart 7-8 April to discuss issues including NK conflict. President of Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe 13 April said NK a “real concern” for Europe, called for dialogue.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Ongoing accusations by Armenia and Azerbaijan of ceasefire violations included: N-K de facto officials accusing Azerbaijani forces of 19 March attack in which three N-K soldiers killed; Azerbaijan saying N-K forces responsible for clash, twenty Armenian soldiers killed/wounded. Azerbaijan 23 March reported soldier with separatist N-K forces defected to Azerbaijani side; N-K de facto defence ministry confirmed. N-K soldier reported killed along contact line 30 March. EU progress report 25 March expressed concern over “unprecedented incidents and casualties” in N-K, rise in confrontational rhetoric, continued arms race. Armenia said it will participate in inaugural European Games held in Azerbaijan in June.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Sides continued to trade accusations of ceasefire violations. Azerbaijan authorities 6 Feb said soldier killed in shootout with Armenian troops near N-K 5 Feb. Talks on conflict held 16 Feb in Baku: Azerbaijani FM Elmar Mammadyarov said Azerbaijan ready to start negotiations to prepare draft peace agreement on N-K; Iran FM said Iran ready to play mediation role.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Armenian President Sargsyan 26 Jan noted uptick in N-K violence, warned Armenia reserves right to use “preventative strikes” if threat perceived along its borders; also said Armenia open to negotiations, building trust. N-K authorities 29 Jan denied Azerbaijan claim that its forces shot down Armenian drone near region. Azerbaijan Defence Ministry 26 Jan said seventeen Armenian and three Azerbaijani soldiers killed in clashes in Jan, said Armenian troops violated ceasefire 124 times in previous 24 hours. N-K authorities 3 Jan accused Azerbaijan of killing two ethnic Armenian soldiers, 24 Jan said Azerbaijan violated ceasefire 1,800 times 17-24 Jan, fourteen Azerbaijani soldiers killed.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

N-K authorities reported soldier killed in clash with Azerbaijani forces 8 Dec; reported another soldier killed 21 Dec on frontline. Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of hundreds of ceasefire violations during month. Armenian defence ministry accused Azerbaijan of sabotage and infiltration attempt on contact line 25 Dec; Azerbaijan denied. Azerbaijani military claimed to have foiled infiltration attempt 26 Dec and taken Armenian soldier hostage; N-K authorities denied. Outgoing U.S. ambassador to Armenia reiterated only way to resolve N-K conflict is through talks; Collective Security Treaty Organisation Sec Gen also said conflict can only be resolved peacefully. Bonn International Center for Conversation’s Global Militarization Index 2014 showed Armenia third most militarised country in world, Azerbaijan tenth.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Azerbaijan mid-Nov said airspace over NK closed after forces shot down Armenian helicopter when it reportedly “attempted to open fire”; Armenia said helicopter belonged to NK authorities, who 22 Nov said forces killed two Azerbaijani soldiers in operation to recover bodies of three crew members killed in the downing. Armenia defence minister Seiran Ohanian 22 Nov said Armenia will retaliate against “any procovation by Azerbaijan from now on”.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Two reportedly killed in clashes along front line 1, 9 Oct. Body of Armenian citizen Karen Petrosyan handed over by Azerbaijan authorities 10 Oct after ICRC mediation. Trial of two Azerbaijani citizens charged with murder, espionage, illegal border crossing, weapons possession began 27 Oct in NK. German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier 23 Oct visited Baku, called for end to NK conflict. French President Hollande 27 Oct hosted talks in Paris between President Sarkisian and President Aliyev; Armenian FM Nalbandian 28 Oct said talks constructive, leaders discussed issues related to NK conflict including confidence building measures.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Mediation efforts continued: U.S. Sec State John Kerry 5 Sept convened meeting with Armenian President Sarkisian and Azerbaijani President Aliyev on sidelines of NATO summit; both presidents stressed importance of peace agreement; French ambassador to Azerbaijan 9 Sept announced tripartite talks between France, Armenia and Azerbaijan to be held in Paris in Nov; Azerbaijani FM Mammadyarov and Armenian FM Nalbandian 23 Sept met OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, discussed preparations for Paris summit. Sarkisian 24 Sept criticised Azerbaijan in UN speech for preventing resolution of NK dispute. Azerbaijani citizen detained 5 Sept by NK de facto authorities after crossing contact line; released 11 Sept. Armenian soldier killed 18 Sept on contact line; Azerbaijani officer reportedly killed 27 Sept on contact line, denied by Armenian Defence Ministry.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Sep 2014

Unchanged

At least 15 reportedly killed in late July-early Aug violence along front line. UNSG Ban, U.S., EU and OSCE all voiced serious concern, called for ceasefire to be respected. Armenian, Russian, U.S., French authorities demanded investigation after Armenian citizen 8 Aug died in Azerbaijani custody. Azeri-captured Armenian soldier Hakob Injighulyan transferred to third country 29 Aug. Armenian PM Abrahamyan, Defense Minister Seyran Oganian visited NK 9 Aug; Armenian President Sarkisian visited NK 31 Aug; Azerbaijani President Aliyev visited front line 6 Aug. Russian President Putin 10 Aug convened trilateral meeting with Aliyev and Armenian President Sarkisian in Sochi to defuse tensions. UNSC discussed NK during open debate 22 Aug. California Senate 27 Aug passed resolution recognizing independence of NK, U.S. Embassy in Baku stated resolution does not reflect U.S. foreign policy.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Skirmishes continued with several reports of deaths, injuries, and continuing escalations including alleged ceasefire violations: de facto Nagorno-Karabakh/Armenian authorities 11 July claimed Azerbaijani soldier involved in commando raid in Kelbajar area captured, 14 July said forces “neutralised saboteurs” from Azerbaijan who killed ethnic Armenian teenager missing since 4 July. 1 killed, 3 injured including mayor of Armenian city Armavir when car hit landmine in Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani district 22 July. OSCE mediators late July expressed “serious concern” over increased tensions, targeted killings.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jul 2014

Unchanged

Tensions continued to escalate: reports of daily fighting and allegations of use of artillery in front-line areas; Armenia reported at least 5 killed throughout month, several injured including 2 soldiers reportedly killed 2 June by Azerbaijani sniper on front line. Reports of serious clashes along border between Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan enclave. Azerbaijani delegate to Council of Europe assembly Elkhan Suleymanov 18 June tabled motion calling for sanctions against Armenia for occupation of Azerbaijani territories. Armenian delegation 16 June attended NATO-sponsored conference on Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) in Baku, said had neither appetite nor capability for another full-scale war. Armenian PM Abrahamyan 24 June visited NK. OSCE chairperson Didier Burkhalter visited Baku 2 June, called for intensified peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Member of French delegation to OSCE PA denied visa for Assembly in Baku 29 June because of visit to NK.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jun 2014

Unchanged

Several reports of clashes along front line: 2 Azerbaijani troops, 1 Armenian soldier reported killed in clashes near Fizuli region 28 May. Armenian President Sarkisian visited 9 May to mark WW2 Victory Day.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Azerbaijan reported it held unprecedented large military drills in sensitive Nakhichevan exclave late April involving around 20,000 troops, 400 armoured vehicles, weapons systems. Several reports of renewed fighting with Armenian forces, many around northern border between countries near Georgian border. Azerbaijan 8 April reported officer and 2 conscripts killed in mine explosion on contact line with Armenian-occupied Fizuli district. Opposition media also reported fierce fighting in area late April, no confirmation. Also reported 90 tanks and other armoured vehicles relocated from Russian military base in Gyumri to Armenia’s Goris region, alleged plans to send them to Azerbaijan’s Lachin region, occupied by Armenian forces.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Amid uncertainty over impact of Russian intervention in Ukraine on OSCE Minsk Group mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents met on sidelines of 24-25 March nuclear security summit in The Hague, pledged to continue peace talks. Minsk Group’s U.S. Co-Chair James Warlick 16 March said on Twitter that U.S. and Russia could still work together on resolving N-K conflict. Baku 28 March accused Armenia of firing on Azerbaijani village near border in violation of ceasefire, injuring 2.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

U.S. co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia in media interview early Feb cited progress in negotiations. Sporadic armed clashes across front line which began mid-Jan continued, albeit less intense, with several reports of troop deaths from both Yerevan and Baku.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Feb 2014

Deteriorated

Sudden, serious escalation in fighting starting 20 Jan along various front-line areas, with both sides blaming other, and return to hostile rhetoric by officials and in media. Details surrounding 20 Jan clashes unclear, with Armenia claiming Azerbaijan attempt to break through front lines, vowing “retribution” after 1 Armenian soldier killed. Azerbaijan defence ministry 24 Jan declared it had deployed air force units over front line areas, confirmed by Armenia; same day said it repelled Armenian incursion near Line of Control, 1 Azerbaijani captain killed. Armenian defence ministry 24 Jan reported clashes along border near Georgia, 1 civilian wounded. Azerbaijani media 27 Jan reported another Azerbaijani officer killed in fighting. N-K de facto authorities reported conscript killed by Azerbaijani sniper fire 28 Jan. At regularly-scheduled meeting between countries’ FMs in Paris 24 Jan OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs expressed concern, called on sides to cease military actions.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Following Nov meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijan presidents, countries’ FMs met in Kiev 4 Dec, agreed to continue talks on resolution of N-K conflict. In attempt to sustain resumed talks, OSCE Minsk Group representatives visited both countries mid-month, part of increased diplomatic activity by U.S. and Russia. Armenian President Sargsyan told state media meeting with Azerbaijan President Aliyev involved serious discussions, proposals to make progress on ending 25-year conflict. Baku and Yerevan say next presidential meeting scheduled March. Both sides accused other of continued ceasefire violations. Armenian officer killed 14 Dec along front lines, Azerbaijani soldier killed 29 Dec, according to defence ministries.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Armenian President Sargsyan and Azerbaijan President Aliyev met for first time in 2 years 19 Nov following pressure by OSCE mediators. EU and U.S. hailed meeting, no concrete results reported, presidents to meet again at unspecified date. Both sides accused other of hundreds of ceasefire violations during month. Sargsyan 12 Nov visited NK, inspected military forces. Formal ally Russia to send more troops to Armenia as well as a squadron of military helicopters; President Putin to visit 2 Dec.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Speaking at Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe 2 Oct, Armenian President Sargsyan urged body to initiate contact with N-K de facto authorities to help resolve conflict; also criticised Azerbaijan for its threatening rhetoric. Serious fighting along international frontier left 1 soldier dead, 3 wounded on Armenian side (according to Armenian defence ministry) and forced authorities to close main road leading to border with Georgia; both sides blamed other for incident. Re-elected Azerbaijani President Aliyev said country will increase efforts to isolate Armenia economically and politically to force it to leave occupied Azerbaijani districts; Baku 29 Oct accused Yerevan of resettling 200 Syrian refugees in sensitive occupied districts adjacent to N-K. Some Armenian analysts expressed concern over Aliyev’s appointment of new defence minister, say it may indicate more aggressive military posture and increase risk of war.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

Co-Chairs of “Minsk Group” mediators and FMs of Azerbaijan and Armenia met on sidelines of UNGA late Sept in attempt to jump-start peace talks, largely stalled since 2011. Mediators pushing for Dec meeting between Presidents Aliev and Sargsyan. New U.S. co-chair Warlick visited Baku, Yerevan, and Stepanakert (N-K), delivered letters to Aliev and Sargsyan from President Obama urging direct dialogue; noted basic outlines of future agreement already known. Exchanges of fire reported in conflict zone throughout month. Armenian reports say military exercises planned for 8-11 Oct, during Azerbaijan’s presidential election.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Sporadic fighting along nearly 1,000 km Azerbaijan-Armenia border spread to highly sensitive Nakhichevan exclave. Armenia defence minister said one soldier killed and one injured in sniper attack 23 Aug, Azerbaijan said Armenians staged incident and “shooting at selves”. Armenian officials repeated increasingly grave warnings they will retaliate. Further skirmishes along international frontier. Azerbaijan said seeking $3bn weapons purchase from South Korea including submarines, battleships, attack helicopters to add to billions it has spent on weapons in last few years as it tries to assemble insurmountable military advantage over Armenia to force it to compromise, leave occupied territories, or face massive armed assault. Armenian President Sargsyan said Azerbaijan’s Aliyev would be preferable counterpart for negotiations to end war in unusual quasi-endorsement ahead of Azerbaijan election.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

In further tensions over NK, Azerbaijani and Turkish military units held joint military exercises in sensitive Nakhichevan exclave and near Baku. Armenian/NK officials so far refrained from promise to reopen airport in NK for fixed-wing flights, apparently result in part of international pressure. Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of hundreds of ceasefire violations; reported at least one death each during exchanges of fire along front lines 30, 31 July. Clashes also reported along northern international frontier between the two countries. Armenia said shooting broke out 23 July along main road close to border, accused Azerbaijani units of shooting at firefighters, reported road closed to traffic 17 July after area allegedly under gunfire from Azerbaijani positions.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jul 2013

Deteriorated

Tensions running high between Azerbaijan and Armenia with further escalation in arms race. Azerbaijan 19 June announced delivery of $1bn worth of sophisticated Russian weaponry including nearly 100 top-line T-90 tanks, sophisticated rocket launchers, self-propelled artillery units. President Aliyev 26 June presided over huge military parade in Baku which also featured air fighter sorties and demonstrated new drone capabilities, pledged if necessary to re-take all lost territory as well as Armenian lands. Unconfirmed Armenian defence ministry source countered by claiming Armenia is guarded with long-range offensive missile systems capable of hitting any target in Azerbaijan; unclear if claim referred to Russian systems delivered directly to Armenian armed forces or to Russian forces in Armenia. Also on 26 June, head of Russian CSTO-led military bloc and Russian NSC chief visited Yerevan to sign upgraded defence pact, pledged arms and more support. Truce continues to be violated with sporadic clashes, shooting. OSCE Special Representative for Conflicts 12 June warned that simmering conflict between the two may explode; voiced continuing concern Armenia might attempt to launch regularly scheduled fixed-wing air flights between Yerevan and Karabakh, causing near certain Azerbaijani reaction; also lamented reluctance of leaders to hold another bilateral meeting to diffuse tensions. OSCE attempts to jump-start talks in June failed according to OSCE Minsk Group sources cited by media. U.S., French and Russian presidents whose countries co-chair mediation efforts 18 June expressed regret over impasse in talks; called for sides to re-activate efforts to reach settlement.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jun 2013

Unchanged

Azerbaijani President Aliyev 7 May described Nagorno-Karabakh region as “major impediment” to regional integration, said Azerbaijan seeks to restore its territorial integrity, resolve issue in accordance with international law. Azerbaijan mid-May carried out military exercises near N-K, led by Defence Minister Safar Abiyev. Azerbaijan reported soldier shot dead near N-K border 27 May in Armenian ceasefire violation. Armenian President Sargsyan 9 May visited N-K for Victor Day celebrations marking end of World War 2.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Baku reported Azerbaijan army officer shot dead near border with Armenia by Armenian forces in ceasefire violation late 8 April, amid continued cease fire violations alleged by both sides. OSCE mediators reported possible meeting between FMs of the 2 countries to take place May. Tensions continue over Armenian statements about possible reopening of airport in Nagorno-Karabakh, with air link to Yerevan.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

U.S. National Intelligence Service published report highlighting dangers of continued standoff over N-K conflict. Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry reported Azerbaijani soldier shot dead 10 March by sniper in Fizuli region near Line of Contact (LoC), controlled by N-K forces; N-K military spokesman denied report. Armenian soldier reported killed in N-K 20 March. OSCE mission conducted planned monitoring of LoC 14 March.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Armenia reported 2 soldiers killed, 1 soldier and a civilian wounded in sniper fire incidents Feb. Azerbaijan defence ministry reported 2 Azerbaijani soldiers killed during Feb.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Azerbaijani and Armenian FMs met in Paris 28 Jan for internationally mediated talks on N-K conflict. In 19 Jan interview, Armenian President Sargsyan accused Baku of losing “sense of reality” over N-K, said his govt would continue to strengthen its armed forces in face of Azerbaijani military threat; said was ready to continue negotiations.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Hopes that negotiations might be reinvigorated under auspices of OSCE Minsk group dashed at 6-7 Dec OSCE Ministerial Meeting, at which Armenia and Azerbaijan FMs said they were ready to “discuss new ideas” in 2013, but denied there had been any new initiatives. Azerbaijani FM Mammadyarov told EU officials 17 Dec that Armenians in N-K should become loyal citizens of Azerbaijan; Armenian FM Nalbandian told officials citizens should decide status in referendum. Exchanges of fire continue along LoC; Nagorno-Karabakh de facto officials proposed prohibiting shooting across LoC on “New Year’s day, Christmas day and other holidays”. Regular OSCE monitoring of LoC again revealed no violations; local media continue to report daily violations by both sides. Tensions continue around opening of Stepanakert airport, rumoured to open 6 Jan.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs met under Minsk group chairmanship for 2nd time in 2 months 27 Oct without results. Azerbaijan President Aliyev 31 Oct said Azerbaijan would celebrate victory in Karabakh “soon”; defence ministry spokesman said Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant would be targeted in event of war. Armenian president Sargsyan responded warning “Azerbaijan is waiting for an occasion to start the conflict”, said Armenia “won’t stand aside when the population of Karabakh is going to be destroyed”; “deeper international engagement” needed to reduce tensions. One Azerbaijani soldier reported killed, 4 injured in mine explosions on Line of Contact in special operations during month. Minsk Group co-chairs visiting N-K 22 Nov urged local leaders not to put N-K airport into operation.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Nov 2012

Unchanged

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued: Armenian President Sargsyan 6 Oct said Azerbaijan initiating fresh preparations for war over N-K; said Baku buying “horrendous amounts of weapons”, preparing for armed resolution to conflict. Baku dismissed statement, yet announced it would increase defence budget for 2013 by almost 9% to $2 billion, not including $1.7bn spent on other security force detachments. Armenian defence forces conducted 2-week anti-aircraft exercise involving 45,000 soldiers and including units from N-K. U.S. open-source analysis centre revealed Armenia has upgraded and repositioned air defence systems to cover N-K, Armenia. Both countries now claim to possess offensive missiles with 300km+ range. Controversy continues over long-postponed opening of N-K airport; Turkey threatened to close airspace to Armenian aircraft if Armenia begins flights there.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Oct 2012

Deteriorated

Peace process damaged as Azerbaijan’s amnesty and promotion of Ramil Safarov (see Azerbaijan) dealt serious blow to confidence building with Armenia, heightening tensions and chances of escalation of conflict. Pardon sparked another bout of war rhetoric, Armenian President Sargsyan put army on high alert; observers fear freeze in contacts, risk of increased skirmishes. EU, U.S., NATO all expressed “deep concern” about security implications for region. Minsk Group co-chairs met with countries’ FMs to discuss situation. Azerbaijan Deputy FM 27 Sept said negotiations “suspended”. NATO Sec Gen Rasmussen, visiting region 7 Sept, warned against resumption of military hostilities. Countries continued to exchange accusations of ceasefire violations, with 1 casualty confirmed on Armenian side late month.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

Exchanges of fire continued along line of contact: Azerbaijani soldier killed 17 Aug in Agdam, Azerbaijani Defence Ministry said soldier shot by Armenian sniper, Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh de facto authorities denied claim. Azerbaijan Defence Minister Abiev 4 Aug said Azerbaijan would take territories occupied by Armenia by force if Armenia does not withdraw, Minsk Group mediating format not delivering concrete results. Armenia early month announced plans to resettle several hundreds of ethnic Armenian Syrian refugees in Karabakh, occupied territories; Azerbaijan protested to UN, OSCE. Runner-up in breakaway region’s July presidential elections General Balasanian 3 Aug announced creation of new opposition party focusing on social justice.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

Presidential election held 19 July in breakaway region; incumbent Bako Sahakian declared winner with 66%; Azerbaijan said move “illegitimate” and undermined negotiating process, warned all foreign observers would be considered personae non gratae. Azerbaijan 20 July said soldier killed on border by Armenian sniper.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jul 2012

Deteriorated

Armenia 4 June accused Azerbaijan of cross-border incursion into Armenian Tavush region killing 3 Armenian soldiers; Azerbaijan denied involvement. Azerbaijan reported 5 Azeri soldiers killed 5 June during clashes with “Armenian saboteurs” infiltrating Azerbaijan’s Qazah district, 2 officers severely wounded 11 June in mine blast along Line of Contact, border positions shelled same day, 1 soldier killed 19 June by separatist Nagorno-Karabakh forces. Authorities 6 June said 1 soldier killed repelling Azeri incursion, 18 June claimed 1,000 cease-fire violations by Azerbaijan in 1-week. During regional tour, U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 4 June warned tensions could escalate into broader conflict. OSCE chairman Eamon Gilmore 12 June urged restraint, said parties should not attempt to resolve dispute by force; U.S., France, Russia 19 June issued joint statement calling on Armenia, Azerbaijan to take “decisive steps” to resolve conflict.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Jun 2012

Unchanged

Officials 17 May said soldier severely injured near border. Minsk Group co-Chairs 11-14 May visited Yerevan and Baku, expressed concerns over line of contact incidents.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 May 2012

Unchanged

Azerbaijan 25 April fired on Armenian village of Dovegh, near Line of Contact (LoC) for 1st time since 1994. Gunmen 27 April reportedly killed 3 Armenian soldiers along Azerbaijan border. Russian FM Lavrov 2-3 April held talks in Armenia, Azerbaijan over region; Armenian FM Nalbandian said country had rejected 4 suggestions of OSCE Minsk Group, no further details.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

  |  1 Apr 2012

Unchanged

2 Armenian soldiers reportedly shot dead 14, 19 March in incidents on NE border with Azerbaijan; 2 Azerbaijani soldiers reportedly killed along Line of Contact during month. Armenian President Sarkisian 6 March accused Azerbaijan leaders of blocking progress on resolving conflict, “continuing to sow hatred” against Armenians. Co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group U.S. Ambassador Bradtke 20 March said both sides “probably closer to an agreement than they think”.

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