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CrisisWatch Database

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Iraq

  |  1 Aug 2014

Deteriorated

Army and political leadership made no tangible progress in responding to June’s rebel gains in NW led by jihadi group formerly known as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL; alternatively ISIS or Daesh), renamed Islamic State (IS) following late June announcement of caliphate. Poorly-planned 15 July army assault to recapture Tikrit ended in retreat to city’s edge. IS moved to eliminate Sunni rivals in areas under its control: reports of executions, house bombings, shelling, detentions and forced displacement; also reports of destruction of shrines, mosques and other religious sites. Group's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made first ever public appearance delivering sermon in Mosul early July. Announcement of caliphate met with tentative criticism from non-jihadi Sunni forces supporting rebellion, most avoided direct confrontation with IS; reports of some fighting between IS and other insurgents, tribes mid-month in towns north of Baghdad. Several hundred leaders of broad array of Sunni insurgent groups reportedly met in Jordan 16 July, vowed to keep fighting to topple govt. PM Maliki continued to refuse calls to step down following April’s parliamentary elections; parliamentarians 15 July elected Sunni Islamist Salim al-Jabouri Speaker of Parliament, 24 July elected Kurdish MP Fouad Masoum President. Unprecedented tension between Maliki and Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) following mid-June Kurdish seizure of northern city Kirkuk: Kurdish forces 11 July seized nearby oil fields, KRG President Barzani announced intention to hold referendum on independence within months; Maliki accused KRG of providing safe havens for IS, other “terrorists”. Kurdish cabinet members 10 July boycotted cabinet session; Maliki next day replaced Kurdish FM Zebari with Shiite ally Hussain al-Shahristani. Army shelling of Anbar’s Fallujah continued, 19 reported killed 21-22 July. Deadly bombings continued in Baghdad including at least 33 killed in IS suicide bombing 23 July. Human Rights Watch mid-month said hundreds of prisoners killed by govt forces in revenge for IS killings.

Bahrain

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Govt 7 July asked visiting U.S. Assistant Sec State Tom Malinowski to leave country prematurely following meeting with Shiite opposition group al-Wefaq; later charged group’s leader with “violating political association law”, requested 3-month court suspension of activities of al-Wefaq, 2 other opposition groups. 1 police killed in bomb blast south of Manama 4 July, authorities blamed “terrorists”.

Iran

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1 extended until 24 Nov after parties failed to reach comprehensive agreement before 20 July deadline. Non-stop bargaining 2-20 July failed to bridge differences, most importantly on extent of uranium enrichment: each party stuck to maximalist opening gambits wrongly assuming other side desperate for deal. FM Zarif 14 July signalled Iran prepared to maintain operating centrifuges at current level of 9,400 SWU until 2021 when fuel contract with Russia expires, then increase capacity to 190,000; P5+1 rejected idea as “unworkable”. Extension deal included agreement all parties will uphold obligations under Nov 2013 Joint Plan of Action. Iran additionally to convert 25kg of stockpile of 20% enriched uranium in oxidised form into fuel for Tehran Research Reactor, blend down stocks of material enriched to less than 2%; in exchange to be allowed access to further $2.8 billion of restricted assets.

Yemen

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Clashes in north between Houthis and rival tribes, army units intensified early month: hundreds killed, tens of thousands displaced. Houthi fighters 8 July captured Amran city north of Sanaa, including military base of 310th brigade, aligned with Islah party and General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar; air force bombed Houthi positions. Houthis agreed to return Amran to govt control following pressure from President Hadi, along with UNSC, U.S., EU and GCC; tensions remained high, skirmishes continued in surrounding areas. Tribal militants continued to attack critical energy infrastructure crippling oil exports, causing lengthy electricity blackouts in Sanaa. Govt 30 July lifted diesel subsides prompting scattered protests. Alleged al-Qaeda affiliates continued assassination campaign against security personnel in south; at least 2 soldiers, 6 militants reported killed in car bombings, clashes in Abyan 27 July.

Yemen

  |  1 Jul 2014

Deteriorated

Yemen’s transition is gradually unravelling amid unprecedented security and economic challenges partly caused by political infighting and weak consensus on national dialogue results. Violence between Huthis and army spiked when air force early June bombed Huthi positions as they advanced toward Sanaa; 100 Huthis, 20 govt forces reported killed 2 June; hundreds killed in north throughout month. UN brokered ceasefire agreement 4 June: agreement lacked national power-sharing arrangement with Huthis, plan for implementing gradual disarmament; fighting later resumed. Another ceasefire announced 22 June but never implemented. Military campaign against al-Qaeda (AQAP) continued at slower pace; govt raids, U.S. drone strikes met with sporadic retaliatory attacks, mostly against security forces. Economic crisis worsened: govt almost unable to pay salaries causing fears of unrest; tribal sabotage of electrical grid early June left Sanaa without fuel or electricity for days prompting mass protests 11 June calling for overthrow of govt. President Hadi same day announced cabinet reshuffle; failed to replace politically divisive PM Basindawa or bring new groups into govt. Govt forces mid-month surrounded Sanaa’s Saleh mosque on suspicion premises being used by former President Saleh to stage coup.

Iraq

  |  1 Jul 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Militants fighting under banner of al-Qaeda splinter group Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) early month seized large swaths of territory during surge of several hundred jihadis through NW; UN estimated over 2,400 killed throughout month. ISIL 9 June seized major northern city of Mosul; PM Maliki’s local allies, including Ninewa Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi, fled to neighbouring Kurdistan. Army, security forces and hundreds of thousands of civilians also fled; others celebrated “liberation” from central govt control; local armed groups joined jihadis, later claimed role in takeover. Several other towns and areas across NW seized: militants 11 June overran Tikrit, 24 June reportedly seized main oil refinery at Baiji after 10-day siege. Kurdish forces 12 June took control of Kirkuk after security forces fled. Govt reportedly lost control of key border crossings with Syria, Jordan mid- to late month. ISIL 29 June announced establishment of Islamic caliphate in territories under its control. Tens of thousands joined Shiite militias after mid-month calls from Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to fight ISIL; large-scale rallies staged across Baghdad. Maliki 13 June said cabinet granted him “unlimited powers” to combat militants; army late month launched operation to retake Tikrit. U.S. deployed aircraft carrier, announced plans to send 300 military advisors to Baghdad, said armed drones deployed to assist advisors; Iran reportedly sent 2,000 ground troops. Scores killed in several bombings targeting Kurdish political party offices 8-9 June. Deadly car bombings continued across Baghdad including at least 60 killed 7 June.

Iran

  |  1 Jul 2014

Unchanged

Another round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1 held in Vienna 16-21 June: Iranian FM Zarif 18 June said drafting of agreement begun, “many differences” remain including extent of uranium enrichment. Russia, China sided with P5+1 counterparts in insisting Iran reduce number of centrifuges; Iran reportedly frustrated by move. Vienna negotiations followed series of high-level bilateral meetings, including direct U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva 9-10 June. Following Sunni jihadis surge in Iraq (see Iraq), President Rouhani’s deputy chief of staff said only Iran and U.S. can resolve crisis; U.S. Sec State Kerry suggested cooperation could be “constructive”. Deputy U.S. Sec State Bill Burns and Zarif 16 June discussed Iraq in Vienna; no conclusions reported, Iranian official reportedly said military cooperation off the table.

Yemen

  |  1 Jun 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Security and economic conditions deteriorated sharply as al-Qaeda retaliatory attacks against U.S.-backed govt offensive in south continued: AQAP raid on govt institutions in Seiyun, Hadramout, 23 May left at least 27 dead including 12 govt troops and 11 attackers; govt regained control of city 24 May. At least 23 killed 13 May in simultaneous attacks on military positions in Azzan and Jul al-Rida. U.S. embassy in Sanaa suspended public services 8 May in anticipation of retaliatory attacks. Defence Minister Mohamed Nasser Ahmad and 2 senior security officers 9 May survived ambush traveling from Abyan to Shebwa province. President Hadi early May said country in “open war” with AQAP, would expand operations. Prominent AQAP figure Abu Abdel Rhaman al-Masri reportedly killed late May; army 25 May announced top AQAP militant Saleh al-Tays killed. Attacks against oil and infrastructure escalated in wake of govt offensive; main oil export pipeline bombed 6-7 May; gunmen same evening closed Maarib gas-fired power plant. Fighting in northern Amran province renewed 20 May between Huthi fighters and tribes aligned with the Ahmar clan and the Sunni Islamist party, Islah, backed by the 310 military brigade. Dozens killed thus far; combatants on both sides preparing for further clashes. Fighting between army and Huthi fighters in Amran city late May left dozens dead including at least 13 soldiers.

Iraq

  |  1 Jun 2014

Unchanged

Results of 30 April parliamentary elections reported 26 May: PM Maliki’s State of Law list won 92 seats, more than 2 leading rival Shiite groups combined. Electoral commission reported 60% overall participation despite low turnout in govt-controlled parts of Anbar province. Maliki signalled intention to retain premiership in govt comprised of State of Law along with smaller parties, excluding leading Shia and Sunni rivals. Sunni Mouttahidoun group publicly abandoned hope of forming govt without Maliki, shifted focus to organising Sunni and secular groups for negotiations over formation of new govt. Deadly bombings across Baghdad mid-month followed election-day lull: at least 34 killed 13 May, at least 29 killed in bombings and shootings 15 May; at least 35 Shiite pilgrims killed 22 May. At least 74 killed across country 28 May, including dozens in several Baghdad car bombings. Govt forces escalated fight against insurgents in and around Falluja, including indiscriminate shelling with “barrel bombs”; scores killed, thousands fled. Increased tensions between previously allied anti-govt fighters after Falluja military council late-April accused Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) of kidnapping, beating, and disarming its members, trying to assert unilateral dominance; ISIL clashed with other groups, including over sale of gas and other commodities in eastern Anbar.

Iran

  |  1 Jun 2014

Unchanged

Fourth round of talks between Iran and P5+1 seeking comprehensive nuclear agreement held in Vienna 14-16 May, no progress achieved: U.S. and allies insisted Iran drastically scale back enrichment program, lengthening “breakout time” required for building nuclear bomb to at least 1 year; Iran insisted at least 19,000 centrifuges needed to meet country’s practical needs. Zarif and P5+1 lead negotiator Ashton held follow-up meeting in Istanbul 26-27 May. IAEA announced Iran offered additional information on past experiments with exploding bridgewire detonators, part of what IAEA considers “possible military dimensions” of nuclear program, after agency early month signalled dissatisfaction with information provided; Iran agreed to provide more information by 25 Aug, including on alleged large-scale high-explosives experimentation, studies on neutron transport. IAEA confirmed Iran continuing to live up to obligations under Nov interim agreement, cut stockpile of 20% enriched uranium by around 80%.

Iran

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Another round of talks between Iran and P5+1 seeking comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program held in Vienna 7-9 April. Talks signalled end to first phase in which parties explained respective positions, ahead of second stage of negotiations; next round of talks to start 13 May. Iranian FM Zarif 9 April claimed Iran and P5+1 already in “50-60% agreement”, but significant disagreements remain, including on number of centrifuges to be allowed in Iran, scope of inspections and Iran’s ballistic missiles program. IAEA 17 April said Iran continuing to comply with Nov Joint Plan of Action (JPA), cutting stockpiles of 20% enriched uranium; construction of conversion plant needed for rendering uranium stockpiles unfit for enrichment to higher levels, as promised under JPA, delayed. Nuclear negotiations unaffected by other tensions including U.S. refusal to grant visa to Iran’s UN envoy over role in 1979 hostage crisis, European Parliament resolution condemning human rights situation in Iran. 4 Iranian border guards, held hostage for months by Sunni insurgent group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistani border area, freed 4 April after March execution of fifth hostage.

Jordan

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Jordanian warplanes 16 April hit and destroyed several vehicles crossing the border from Syria into Jordan, which officials claimed carried armed Syrian rebels. Casualties unknown.

Yemen

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Tense stalemate between Huthis and Islah/al-Ahmar affiliated tribes continued, punctured by periodic clashes in Amran and Dhammar provinces. UN envoy Jamal Benomar 24 April said President Hadi and Huthis have agreed to discuss Huthi disarmament. Airstrikes 20-21 April killed some 55 reported al-Qaeda militants in south as part of reported major campaign backed by U.S. drone strikes; ground offensive launched 29 April. 15 soldiers killed 29 April in suspected AQAP ambush in Sabwa province; suicide bomb attack on Aden army base 2 April killed 11; suspected AQAP militants 15 April shot dead al-Bayda province governor; gunmen 21-22 killed 4 senior security officials in several attacks in Sanaa. Thousands rallied in Sanaa 23 April in response to call by Feb 11 Movement, called for dismissal of govt, end to fuel shortages. UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen 25 April said 47% of population in need of emergency humanitarian services. Friends of Yemen meeting in London began 29 April, urged Yemen govt to set clear timetable for constitution referendum and subsequent elections.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Unidentified gunmen firing from Yemen killed 2 Saudi guards patrolling the border in Asir Province on 10 April; a similar attack killed 1 guard and wounded another in Jizan Province on 14 April.

Iraq

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Security situation continued to deteriorate in run-up to 30 April parliamentary election with Shiite militias operating openly, ongoing fighting between govt forces and Sunni insurgents in Anbar province. Jihadi Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) consolidated presence in Falluja, including staging military parade and organising basic services; early April pushed eastward toward areas closer to Baghdad, including establishing presence in Abu Ghraib city. Govt continued to use Anbar crisis to marginalise Sunni political opposition, secure domestic and international political support. Violence across country left hundreds dead. ISIL suicide bombers 25 April killed 33 at Shiite political rally in Baghdad; militants 28 April killed at least 50 as soldiers and police cast votes, including 30 in suicide bombing of Kurdish political rally. 14 reported killed on election day 30 April; officials reported over 50 attacks on polling stations, voters in north and west. Electoral commission cancelled balloting in parts of Anbar due to ongoing violence. Cabinet approved “national safety” bill enabling PM to declare state of emergency at will; awaiting deliberation in parliament.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Govt 7 March designated Muslim Brotherhood (MB) terrorist organisation.

Iraq

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Amid ongoing fight against insurgents in Anbar province, Anbar Provincial Council accused Iraqi army of not seriously trying to solve crisis. Shia chairman of secular Iraqiya Alliance in parliament Iyad Alawi criticised lack of progress; criticism also from members of Sunni Mouttahidoun electoral list, with one MP calling govt operation “not a war on terrorism, but a war against Anbar and its people”. Local Mouttahidoun officials in Ramadi negotiated with central govt, including over deployment of army and enrolment of recruits in local police force; tribal leader Ahmed Abu Richa 16 March urged uniting army, Ramadi police forces and tribes in joint operation against insurgents controlling neighbouring Falluja. Ahead of April parliamentary elections, Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) discussed postponement of poll in Anbar due to ongoing turmoil and high numbers of displaced; UN 27 March said 400,000 displaced since beginning of year. IHEC commissioners resigned 25 March blaming political and judicial “interference” in electoral process; 30 March withdrew resignations following UN appeals, reports parliament ruled to limit judiciary’s powers to impose candidate bans. Widespread violence continued ahead of elections with bombings across Iraq claiming hundreds of lives: at least 45 killed 9 March in single car bombing in southern city Hilla, at least 80 killed 25 March including 41 soldiers.

Iran

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Second round of negotiations on comprehensive nuclear agreement between Iran and P5+1 held in Vienna 17-19 March, following expert-level talks early March. Escalating animosity between Russia and Western members of P5+1 over Ukraine crisis had no tangible impact, however Russian deputy FM Ryabkov subsequently threatened unspecified “retaliatory measures” against U.S. and EU in negotiations. Next round planned for 7-9 April. EU foreign policy chief Ashton 8-9 March visited Iran, first such visit since 2008; met with rights activists without govt approval, FM Zarif reportedly cancelled 17 March dinner ahead of Vienna talks to protest Ashton’s “uncoordinated” move. IAEA, monitoring compliance with Nov Joint Plan of Action (JPA), 20 March said Iran fulfilling obligations, govt to start conversion of enriched uranium stockpiles to below 5% 9 April. At least 14 border guards killed in attack near Pakistani border claimed by Sunni insurgent group Jaish al-Adl, 16 alleged “rebel” prisoners hanged by local authorities in apparent revenge killing; insurgents later reportedly killed 1 border guard held hostage since early Feb, 4 still in captivity.

Yemen

  |  1 Apr 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Violence in North increased: clashes between Huthis and opposing tribesmen in Jawf killed over 30 late Feb-early March. Fighting spread to Hamdan area near Sanaa, killing over a dozen early March; military entered Hamdan to separate warring factions; ceasefire negotiations ongoing. 12 killed 22 March when Huthis clashed with security forces near Amran city; tensions remain high. Govt 12 March concluded deal in Dalia governorate ending clashes between army and Hiraak. Hadramout tribal confederation mid-month accused govt of not following through on deal to provide financial compensation and jobs in exchange for end to hostilities. AQAP attacks continued including at least 20 soldiers killed 24 March at checkpoint in Hadramout; at least 5 drone strikes conducted. President Hadi 8 March replaced several officials including head of political security and interior minister; same day appointed constitution-writing committee. Thousands protested in Sanaa 21 March calling for release of political prisoners, trial of former President Saleh.

Bahrain

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

3 police killed in bombing 3 March in Manama, opposition group Saraya al-Ashtar reportedly claimed responsibility; govt next day designated group terrorist organisation along with 2 others. More bombings followed, several police injured.

Yemen

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged Risk Alert

Tensions in North continued, threatening shaky ceasefires in Dammaj, Arhab and Amran and rekindling of larger-scale violence, fracturing of delicate political consensus. Huthis 3 Feb won significant battle in Amran, defeating Ahmar fighters in Ahmar’s home village; Huthis consolidated gains through deals with Hahsid tribesmen. Security forces 28 Feb clashed with Huthis in Hizm, Jawf province, at least 13 killed. 2 weeks after its formation, presidential committee charged with defining federal structure 10 Feb announced Yemen to be divided into 6 regions, 2 in South and 4 in North. Rushed announcement stoked political opposition; majority of Hiraak rejected outcome, claiming not sufficiently included in process; Huthis also opposed. UNSC 26 Feb established sanctions regime to impose travel bans and asset freezes on individuals or entities obstructing transition. Mass anti-govt protest held in Sanaa 21 Feb. Suspected al-Qaeda militants 20 Feb killed Salafi Shaikh Ali Bawazir in Hadramawt. 29 prisoners freed 13 Feb in attack on central security prison in capital. 2 foreigners kidnapped early Feb in Sanaa. South remained volatile: military clashes with armed Hiraak in al-Dalia governorate and with tribesmen in Hadramawt continued including at least 12 killed, 14 soldiers kidnapped in Daleh province18 Feb. 

Iraq

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

Anbar province remained under siege by army following early-Jan seizure of key areas by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL): army continued shelling of Falluja and Ramadi suburbs, govt withheld electricity and water; hundreds killed during fighting which also saw militants bring down army helicopter 22 Feb killing all 4 crew. ISIL mid-month seized parts of northern town Suleiman Pek, govt forces 22 Feb retook city and surrounding areas after over a week of fighting which left dozens dead. Ahead of April elections Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr 16 Feb announced retirement from politics, saying no bloc in govt or parliament will represent Sadr Movement which had held 6 cabinet posts, 40 parliament seats; many Sadrists reacted by resigning their posts. Sadr 18 Feb called PM Maliki “tyrant”, “dictator”, govt corrupt. In first assassination of candidate for April election gunmen 7 Feb killed Sadr supporter in W Baghdad. Car bombings across central Iraq continued with multiple deadly attacks; at least 34 killed 5 Feb in central Baghdad, at least 49 killed 18 Feb in attacks in Baghdad and southern Hillah, at least 31 killed in 27 Feb blast in Baghdad.

Iran

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

Talks on final comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program 18-20 Feb in Vienna ended with agreement on timetable, framework agenda; next technical level meeting 3 March and political level 17 March in Vienna, EU HR/VP Ashton to visit Tehran 9-10 March. Although conflicting interpretations remain regarding path set out for coming talks by Nov Joint Plan of Action, IAEA 20 Feb reported Iran complying with confidence-building measures. Iran and IAEA 8-9 Feb agreed on additional steps to clarify aspects of nuclear program to be implemented by 15 May 2014, including access to uranium mine in Yazd, Ardakan concentration plant, information on Iran’s stated need for exploding-bridgewire detonators; first time aspect of what IAEA considers program’s “possible military dimensions” will be addressed. U.S. 6 Feb targeted businesses for evading sanctions, second such move since Nov deal; President Obama 11 Feb warned U.S. will come down hard on companies breaching sanctions. President Rouhani same day vowed to pursue peaceful nuclear technology “forever”; Supreme Leader Khamenei 17 Feb said not opposed to talks but predicted they will lead nowhere. Sunni insurgent group Jaish al-Adl abducted 5 Iranian soldiers on border with Pakistan; interior minister 17 Feb threatened troop incursion into Pakistan to retrieve them, Iran-Pakistan border commission 21 Feb agreed on joint efforts to track them down. Reuters 24 Feb reported Iran Nov 2013 signed deal to sell arms to Iraq breaching UN weapons embargo; govt denied claims.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

4 killed 20 Feb in clashes in eastern Shiite area, including 2 police. 7 protesters jailed for up to 20 years for demonstrating against govt.

Bahrain

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

Demonstrators 13 Feb clashed with police on first of 3 days of protest to mark third anniversary of uprising, 29 arrested; tens of thousands demonstrated 15 Feb, 1 policeman died in bomb blast. More clashes reported 24 Feb in Shiite villages west of capital 28 Feb following funeral for villager who died in detention 2 days earlier. King approved law imposing jail sentence of up to 7 years on anyone publicly insulting King, flag or national emblem.

Bahrain

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Opposition groups 9 Jan withdrew from national dialogue talks; talks reconvened next day following intervention by Crown Prince, parties agreed to basis for further negotiations. Hundreds protested in Shiite village Diraz 17 Jan saying talks meaningless.

Iraq

  |  1 Feb 2014

Deteriorated

Month saw security further deteriorate in Anbar province following 30 Dec govt demolition of Sunni protest camp in Ramadi and negotiated withdrawal of govt forces from province: as govt forces withdrew, Islamic militants from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) 1 Jan seized key areas of Anbar’s main cities, Ramadi and Falluja. Fierce clashes followed between ISIL and govt forces backed by local allies, killing scores including over 100 killed in Ramadi and Falluja 3 Jan; despite local tribes, clerics and former officers regaining control of the city, govt made no distinction between Falluja locals and ISIL militants, announced Falluja in hands of ISIL, calling for national, international support in “war on terror”. UNHCR 24 Jan said 65,000 fled fighting in Falluja, Ramadi in past week alone fearing clashes between army, locals and ISIL militants. Govt forces 29 Jan regained control of areas west of Baghdad after weeks of fighting; militants next day attacked transport ministry building. PM Maliki 16 Jan requested new arms, training from U.S.; U.S. VP Biden 26 Jan said Maliki has U.S. support, Senate signed off on long-stalled sale of Apache helicopters. Bomb attacks across Iraq continued: at least 73 killed 15 Jan, 27 killed 20 Jan in Shia neighbourhoods of Baghdad. Govt estimated 1,013 killed during month, highest number since April 2008. 26 hanged on terrorism charges 21 Jan; UN criticised “conveyer-belt of executions”. Kurdistan Regional Govt 8 Jan announced plans to sell 2mn barrels of oil to Turkey via newly-built pipeline by month’s end; PM Maliki 12 Jan threatened to cut region’s share of federal budget, Oil Minister Luaibi 17 Jan said govt preparing legal action against Kurdistan, Turkey.

Yemen

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

National dialogue launched March 2013 officially concluded 25 Jan; new federal political system endorsed, president’s term extended by 1 year to oversee constitution drafting and referendum before elections. Dialogue outcomes included “solutions document” that agrees on federalism in principle and empowers President Hadi to appoint small negotiating team to determine number of federal units. Document failed to win support of entire Hiraak (southern seccessionist movement) delegations. Security continued to deteriorate. Houthi representative Ahmed Sharaf el-Din killed 21 Jan on way to conference. In North Huthis and Salafis 11 Jan agreed to ceasefire after months of clashes in Dammaj; Salafi spokesman 13 Jan said at least 210 Salafis killed in fighting in last 2 months; fighting between Huthis and various opponents continued in other areas including Jawf, Amran, Sadaa and Sanaa governorates. Tensions in south continued: clashes erupted 17 Jan between armed residents and military al-Dalia governorate; southern separatists demonstrating against national dialogue 27 Jan clashed with troops in Ataq, 4 wounded. Tribesmen attacks on oil infrastructure in Hadramout and Shabwa continued. Suspected al-Qaeda militants 16 Jan attacked military camp in al-Baydah, killing 9 soldiers; 31 Jan killed 17 soldiers in 2 attacks in Hadramout. Unknown assailants 19 Jan killed Iranian diplomat in Sanaa. 3 suspected al-Qaeda killed in drone strike in Marib province 24 Jan.

Iran

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

P5+1 and Iran 10 Jan agreed on implementation of 6-month Joint Plan of Action (JPA) signed in Geneva in Nov. Plan took effect 20 Jan; IAEA confirmed Iran halted 20% uranium enrichment, also provided better access to IAEA inspectors, stopped installing new centrifuges, suspended construction of heavy water reactor in Arak; EU and U.S. initiated sanctions relief in return, in accordance with deal. Implementation agreement included specification that Iran gains access to $4.2bn of blocked assets in 8 instalments, first planned 1 Feb; also specified exact nature of JPA’s research and development provision. P5+1 and Iran to reconvene 18 Feb in Vienna for negotiations on final comprehensive agreement. IAEA 29 Jan inspected Gachin uranium mine in accordance with separate Nov Iran-IAEA agreement. U.S. Senate push to impose new sanctions appearing to lose momentum. Diplomatic row over “Geneva II” talks on Syria as UNSG Ban 19 Jan invited Iran to participate, 21 Jan withdrew invitation following U.S.; U.S. warned companies Iran still “not open for business” due to remaining sanctions. Violence in eastern border region continued; Baluchi Sunni separatist group Jaish al-Adl 25 Jan claimed attack on Revolutionary Guards killing 7.

Iraq

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Daily violence continued with UN reporting over 700 killed including over 661civilians: at least 42 killed, 84 injured in series of bomb attacks 25 Dec; series of bombings in Baghdad Shia neighbourhoods 30-31 Dec killed 23; over 70 killed 16 Dec; at least 18 military personnel killed 21 Dec in ambush by Islamic State of Iraq. UN reported at least 7,818 civilians killed in 2013, marking deadliest year since 2008. Security forces 28 Dec raided home of Sunni lawmaker Ahmed al-Alwani, arrested him on terrorism charges; 7 killed in ensuing gun-battle. At least 10 killed 30 Dec when security forces dismantled Sunni protest camp in Ramadi, al-Anbar province, calling for removal of PM Maliki. 44 MPs resigned 30 Dec over demolishing of camp, arrest of Alwani. U.S. reportedly shipped Hellfire missiles, reconnaissance drones to help govt combat militants. Govt 25 Dec closed border with Syria following start of military operation against al-Qaeda in western desert.

Iran

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Govt, P5+1 and IAEA 9-13 Dec met to discuss technical details of 24 Nov Geneva nuclear deal, but Iran pulled out of talks after U.S. 12 Dec blacklisted 19 companies linked to Iran’s nuclear program; Tehran said new sanctions “violated” the spirit of Geneva agreement. Talks further jeopardised after bipartisan group of U.S. senators 19 Dec introduced new sanctions bill that would strengthen existing sanctions if Iran breaks interim deal; President Obama threatened to veto bill if it passed. 100 hardline Iranian parliamentarians 25 Dec introduced bill obliging govt to increase uranium enrichment to 60% if U.S. introduces new sanctions. Head of Iranian negotiating team 1 Jan said sides had proposed 20 Jan for Geneva deal to go into effect. IAEA 8 Dec inspected Arak nuclear plant; govt and IAEA 12 Dec agreed to meet 21 Jan to discuss “practical steps” to improve transparency of nuclear program. Public row erupted between President Rouhani’s govt and Revolutionary Guards commander Ali Jafari: FM Zarif 3 Dec said U.S. could eliminate Iran’s defensive systems “with one bomb”; Jafari called comments “incorrect”, said govt “infected by Western doctrine” and “fundamental change must occur”. Nuclear chief Salehi 1 Dec said govt in talks with Russia to build another nuclear plant at Bushehr, construction to begin in 2014. Govt 5 Dec announced it executed 4 Ahwazi Arab political activists on charges of enmity against God and threatening national security. Upsurge in violence on Iran’s eastern and western borders: gunmen killed 15 Iranian and 3 Iraqi workers on gas pipeline near Balad Ruz village NE of Baghdad 13 Dec; 3 Revolutionary Guards killed in SE by roadside bomb believed to be planted by Baluchi Sunni separatist group Jaish al-Adl 18 Dec.

Bahrain

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Courts handed series of prison sentences to Shiite activists. Govt denied entry to UK rights lawyer who was to observe trial of opposition Al-Wefaq leader Khalil Al-Marzooq. Govt 29 Dec detained Al Wefaq leader Ali Salman on charges of “inciting hatred”, imposed travel ban after his release. Homemade bomb wounded 2 police near Manama 17 Dec.

Yemen

  |  2 Jan 2014

Deteriorated

Security deteriorated after armed forces early-month killed prominent Hadrami sheikh; Hadrami tribes, supported by Hiraak, set 20 Dec as deadline for handing over killer, transferring governorate security responsibilities to them. Thousands protested in South, including Qaten, Seiyun and Tarim cities in Hadramout, and clashed with armed forces. Army 27 Dec struck funeral of southern separatist in al-Dalia, killing 19 including 4 children. Tribal attacks on oil pipelines continue: unknown assailants 27 Dec blew up main oil pipeline from Masila field. At least 56 killed, 215 injured 5 Dec in al-Qaeda attack on defence ministry complex in Sanaa. At least 4 soldiers killed 31 Dec in suicide bombing of security HQ in Aden. 15 killed 12 Dec in U.S. drone strike on reported wedding convoy; parliament 15 Dec issued non-binding agreement banning drones. In north, fighting between Huthis and Salafis continued. Several political parties 23 Dec signed agreement granting some autonomy to South and supporting federalism as basis of new state structure. New as-yet undrafted constitution to decide on number of regions and their authorities.

Iraq

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Violence across country continued including: at least 34 killed, 61 wounded in series of attacks 25 Nov; 25 killed in car bombing 21 Nov in Sadiya; at least 60 killed in bombings and shootings 20 Nov; over 50 reportedly killed execution-style across Iraq 29 Nov. Shia militia 21 Nov fired mortars across border with Saudi Arabia; Saudi Arabia deployed troops to border. UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov 25 Nov said Syrian conflict fuelling terrorism and sectarian tensions in Iraq; France 25 Nov offered weapons, training to combat violence. Turkish FM visited 10-11 Nov, met Iraqi counterpart and PM Maliki; officials pledged to cooperate further, end tensions between two states. Justice ministry official 26 Nov reported 12 hanged for terror-related charges.

Yemen

  |  1 Dec 2013

Deteriorated

Violence in northern provinces between Huthis and various adversaries increased. Serious clashes in Dammaj, Sadaa governorate, killed over 100 early Nov; Huthis claimed self-defence against influx of foreign fighters, Salafis said Huthis launched unprovoked strike; presidential mediation committee has proven unable to secure enduring ceasefire. Abdulkareem Jadban, Huthi MP participating in national dialogue (NDC), assassinated in Sanaa 22 Nov. NDC faltered when southern conference leader, Mohammed Ali Ahmed, withdrew 27 Nov. No agreement yet reached on implementing dialogue and continuing transition after Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) roadmap, originally scheduled to end in Feb 2014. Thousands demonstrated 30 Nov in Aden, called for independence of South. UN envoy Jamal Benomar 27 Nov warned spoilers against derailing transition process, said UN supports achieving tasks of transition, not specific timeline. 2 Belarusian military instructors shot 26 Nov in Sanaa. At least 5 killed in drone strike 7 Nov in Abyan; air raid reportedly killed 12 suspected al-Qaeda terrorists in Abyan 26 Nov. Tribesmen 29 Nov blew up main oil export pipeline east of Sanaa.

Bahrain

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Thousands of Shiites 22 Nov protested in Manama against continued govt convictions of high-profile activists. Courts 3 Nov charged Sheikh Salman, head of main opposition group al-Wefaq, with “insulting” interior ministry, 17 Nov extended travel ban on al-Wefaq member Khalil al-Marzooq; al-Wefaq 20 Nov said it was being “systematically targeted”. Court 4 Nov sentenced 4 Shiites to life, 6 to 15 years’ jail over alleged Iranian-backed plan to assassinate public figures; 10 Nov sentenced 2 to life, 2 to 15 years’s jail for planning July car bomb outside al-Riffa mosque. Protesters 13 Nov threw petrol bomb at Manama police patrol, wounding 1 officer.

Iran

  |  1 Dec 2013

Improved

Govt and P5+1 countries 24 Nov reached historic interim agreement over Iranian nuclear program in Geneva after decade of deadlock; described as first step towards final negotiations on normalisation of Iran’s nuclear dossier. Agreement outlined mutual confidence-building measures to be executed over 6 months: Iran to restrict uranium enrichment, not install more centrifuges, freeze work on Arak heavy water reactor, and establish unprecedented transparency mechanisms in cooperation with IAEA; in return P5+1 will refrain from further sanctions, allow Iran to maintain current levels of oil export and establish channel for humanitarian trade, release over $4bn in Iranian oil sales revenue from frozen accounts and suspend restrictions on key sectors of economy. U.S. President Obama 24 Nov hailed deal as historic “first step” to “roll back” Iranian nuclear program; Iranian Supreme leader Ali Khamenei 24 Nov said talks served as “basis for further intelligent actions”; 3 Nov had warned Iranian hardliners not to obstruct negotiations. Saudi Arabia and Israel led opposition to deal, demanding complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran 12 Nov made separate agreement with IAEA, allowing IAEA inspections of Arak nuclear facility and Gachin uranium mine ahead of 11 Dec IAEA-Iran talks; govt 28 Nov invited IAEA to inspect Arak. Govt 4 Nov acknowledged death of Mohammad Jamali Paghalleh, Revolutionary Guard Corps general killed in Syria during firefight near Shiite Sayyida Zainab shrine in Damascus. Unidentified attacker 10 Nov shot and killed Safdar Rahmat Abadi, deputy industry minister. Iran executed 16 rebels 26 Oct in reprisal after Sunni group killed 14 guards near Pakistan border.

Yemen

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Political tensions within National Dialogue grew more acute: Huthi and part of Hiraak delegation 8 Oct boycotted opening plenary session, arguing their issues, including regarding state structure and number of federal units, had not been fully resolved in working groups. Divisions continued within Hiraak delegation over acceptable compromises; tensions between head of delegation and President Hadi increased. State Minister Hassan Sharafuddin 30 Oct resigned from national consensus govt. Thousands of Hiraak rallied in Aden mid-month commemorating anniversary of independence from British, demanding independence from “northern occupation”. Tenuous truce between Huthis and Salafis in Dammaj began to unravel mid-month with renewed clashes; at least 30 reportedly killed, over 100 injured. German security guard killed 6 Oct in Sanaa; same day, UNICEF employee kidnapped on airport road. At least 5 soldiers killed, 15 injured 18 Oct in attack on base in Abyan province; 2 soldiers and civilian killed at checkpoint in Abyan province 31 Oct. Al-Qaeda leader Omar Salem arrested 29 Oct in Hadramawt province.

Iraq

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Parliament 8 Oct set national parliamentary elections for 30 April 2014; political forces began vying to change election laws in their favour. PM Maliki 29 Oct visited U.S., discussed need for arms to stem Iraq violence, terrorism. Govt figures suggested Oct deadliest month since April 2008 with over 900 killed including: some 35 killed in 10 car explosions in predominantly Shia areas in Baghdad 27 Oct; at least 19 police and 3 civilians killed 22-23 Oct in series of bomb attacks in Anbar; 13 children killed 6 Oct in attack on school in Qabak; string of car and roadside bombings 14 Oct killed at least 44.

Bahrain

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Court 1 Oct sentenced 50 activists to 5-15 years’ jail for links to February 14 movement, spying for Iran; police 5 Oct charged prominent al-Wefaq opposition member Khalil al-Marzooq with “inciting terrorist crimes” and supporting February 14. Al-Marzooq joined thousands of people 25 Oct in nationwide anti-govt protest. Security forces 12 Oct violently dispersed protests in Manama after funeral of Yousif Ali al-Nashmi, detainee who died in hospital 11 Oct with signs of torture. Homemade bomb 27 Oct injured unspecified number of police in Demistan near Manama.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

U.S.-Saudi relations deteriorated after U.S. withdrawal of threat of military intervention in Syria and Iranian-Western diplomatic thaw: intelligence chief 22 Oct vowed govt will undertake “major shift” in relations with U.S.. Govt 18 Oct rejected 2-year UNSC seat in protest at deal, denounced UNSC’s “inability to perform its duties” on Syrian conflict.

Iran

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Govt continued diplomatic offensive at 15-16 Oct P5+1 talks in Geneva where FM Zarif and deputy FM Araqchi discussed nuclear program with UNSC P5 plus Germany; no details released, off-record U.S. negotiator called meetings “first true negotiations” on Iranian nuclear program. IAEA and Iranian representatives met 28-29 Oct to discuss IAEA investigation into “possible military dimensions” of Iranian nuclear program; 29 Oct jointly stated talks “very productive”, next meeting 11 Nov in Tehran. U.S. Sec State Kerry 3 Oct said it would be “diplomatic malpractice of the worst order” not to engage Iranian offer to negotiate nuclear program; 17 Oct announced it might offer Iran access to $billions in frozen funds if govt takes certain actions to curb nuclear program. 230 out of 290 MPs 2 Oct signed statement supportive of President Rouhani’s conciliatory UNGA speech in Sept. Supreme leader Khamenei 5 Oct expressed support for strategy but said some parts “improper”, possibly hinting at 27 Sept phone call between Rouhani and U.S. President Obama. On Syria, U.S. 7 Oct said Iran could join Geneva II peace conference if it publicly backed 2012 Geneva Communique calling for transitional govt; Iran called condition “unacceptable”. Baluchi Sunni group Jaish al-Adl 25 Oct killed 14 border guards in ambush near Saravan in retaliation for unspecified Iranian “massacre” in Syria and “cruel treatment” of Sunnis in Iran; govt 26 Oct executed 16 men allegedly linked to Jaish al-Adl.

Bahrain

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

Largest opposition party Al-Weqaf 18 Sept suspended participation in national dialogue process after continued govt crackdown on opposition and Shia groups. Tens of thousands 27 Sept protested in Manama against govt and in support of arrested politician Khalil al-Marzooq. Court 29 Sept sentenced 50 accused of forming “Feb 14 revolution youth coalition” to up to 15 years’ prison, including Iraqi cleric Hadi al-Mudaressi. Police 18 Sept arrested opposition figure Khalil Al Marzooq on charges of “inciting and advocating terrorism”; 15 Sept jailed 3 Shia men for 10 years for “attempting to kill police” during Feb protests. Govt 16 Sept filed lawsuit to close Shia Muslim clerics’ council, accused of operating illegally and political involvement. Govt 4 Sept issued resolution requiring that political groups contacting foreign organisations seek prior approval from foreign ministry.

Iran

  |  1 Oct 2013

Improved

New President Rouhani took unprecedented steps towards ending sanctions regime against Iran, negotiating nuclear program: 27 Sept spoke with U.S. President Obama in first direct talks between U.S. and Iranian leaders since 1979 revolution; 24 Sept visited New York for annual UNGA meeting, said Iran ready for “time-bound and results-oriented” nuclear talks; 23 Sept met with EU foreign policy chief Ashton. Hardliner Saeed Jalili replaced as chief negotiator 5 Sept when nuclear portfolio handed to FM Mohammad Zarif; Zarif declared nuclear program must remain peaceful and be conducted under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision, 29 Sept said right to enrich “not negotiable” but prepared to negotiate aspects of nuclear program. U.S. Sec State Kerry 29 Sept said deal could be reached within 3-6 months. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei 17 Sept endorsed Rouhani’s approach, calling for Iran to show “heroic leniency” in nuclear negotiations. Head of Revolutionary Guards General Mohammad Ali Jafari said Rouhani’s 27 Sept conversation with Obama “tactical error”, should have waited for U.S. to take practical steps showing no hostile intent towards Iran. Govt 18 Sept released 80 prisoners ahead of UNGA, including human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh and reformist politician Mohsen Aminzadeh; also used social media to suggest softer line on Israel. On Syria, Khamenei 5 Sept said chemical weapons “pretext” for U.S. invasion for which it would “suffer”; FM Zarif 10 Sept supported Russian proposal to place Syrian chemical weapons under international control. Ex-president Rafsanjani 1 Sept quoted by Iranian Labour News Agency as stating Syrian regime used chemical weapons; foreign ministry 2 Sept said remarks “distorted”. Russia 11 Sept agreed to supply Iran with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and build additional nuclear reactor at Bushehr nuclear site.

Iraq

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

UNHCR 24 Sept expressed concern over increased sectarian violence; UNSG Ban 30 Sept expressed concern, called for serious political dialogue. Attacks continued with over 660 reported killed including 18 in bombing of Sunni mosque near Samarra 20 Sept; 73 killed 21 Sept in bomb attack on Shiite area of Baghdad; 27 killed 24-25 Sept in clashes between insurgents and security forces; 51 killed 30 Sept in car bombings. Series of bombings in Erbil 29 Sept killed 11, first such attack since 2007. Political leaders early Sept united in opposition to possible U.S. military strike on Syria. Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni leaders increasingly aligned with Iran; Iran FM Mohammed Jawad Zarif visisted Baghdad; Sunni leader Osama al-Nujayfi visited Iran 12 Sept. Kurdistan elections held 21 Sept; Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) won comfortable majority.

Yemen

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

National Dialogue 18 Sept deadline passed without agreement on southern issue. Hiraak activists in south preparing to oppose dialogue outcome through protests, civil disobedience campaigns. Suspected al-Qaeda militants 20 Sept killed at least 38 soldiers in several attacks on military bases in Shabwa province, south. 20 injured 26 Sept in twin explosions in Sanaa, al-Qaeda denied responsibility. Sabotage of oil and electricity infrastructure by tribesmen in Marib caused widespread blackouts. Assassinations continued including 2 military officials killed 23-24 Sept in Sanaa in targeted shootings, army officer killed 25 Sept by car bomb. Gunmen 30 Sept seized military HQ in Mukalla, Hadramaut province, 4 killed. Tensions between Huthis and adversaries including Salafis, Islah and Ahmars continued, with over 60 killed in Amran alone in fighting between Huthis and Ahmars; one-year ceasefire reached by presidential mediation committee 14 Sept but situation remains tense.

Yemen

  |  1 Sep 2013

Deteriorated

Month saw surge in U.S. drone strikes against suspected al-Qaeda (AQAP) militants killing tens including senior AQAP leader Qaid Ahmad Nasser al-Dhahab 30 Aug. U.S., British, French, Dutch and other foreign embassies closed early Aug for approx 2 weeks after U.S. govt 2 Aug announced AQAP planned attack; Yemeni authorities 7 Aug said AQAP attack on southern port and oil and gas facilities thwarted. Attacks on security personnel left 29 dead in first half of Aug; 2 soldiers killed, several wounded 23 Aug in suicide bomb attack on checkpoint in Shibam, Hadramawt province; intelligence official and son killed 28 Aug in Aden. At least 3 killed, 23 wounded in attack on military bus in Sanaa 25 Aug. Clashes between Huthis and various opposing groups in Amran, Saada and Ibb killed dozens, including 13 killed 13 Aug and 8 killed 28 Aug in Amran. Land disputes in capital intensified. Tensions rose ahead of 18 Sept deadline for conclusion of national dialogue: southern separatists failed to return to negotiations following Eid holidays; negotiations ongoing to secure their return; govt 21 Aug apologised to southerners for 1994 civil war.

Bahrain

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Govt launched pre-emptive crackdown ahead of 14 Aug Rebel “Tamarod” protest; Bahrain Center for Human Rights 13 Aug reported over 100 house raids per day. Opposition said some 60 demonstrations held across country 14 Aug; police reportedly closed off villages, cut telecommunications network, arrested 13 protesters and forcibly dispersed demonstrations. Bomb attacks continued, often targeting security personnel: car bomb exploded in Budaiya, west of Manama 3 Aug, no casualties reported; 5 police injured 18 Aug by bomb in Dair village; 4 police injured 30 Aug by bomb in Sahla village near Manama.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Govt 7 Aug offered Russia major arms deal and pledge not to challenge Russian gas sales if Moscow decreases support for Syrian President Assad; 27 Aug called on international community to take “decisive and serious” position against Syrian regime. King Abdullah 16 Aug expressed further support for Egyptian military; FM Al-Faisal 18 Aug warned West against pressuring Egypt’s military to halt crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood, 19 Aug pledged to fill financial gaps left by Western aid withdrawal. Police 8 Aug arrested 2 men from Yemen and Chad suspected of planning suicide attacks, days after U.S. closed embassies citing al-Qaeda threat.

Iraq

  |  1 Sep 2013

Deteriorated

Security continued to deteriorate including: at least 46 killed, 80 injured 25 Aug in bombings in Baghdad and Baquba; at least 26 killed 23 Aug in suicide bombing targeting Qahira neighbourhood park in Baghdad. Over 70 killed 28 Aug by coordinated car bombs targeting Shiite areas; PM Maliki linked attacks to Syria conflict, warned against increased terrorism in region, denounced possibility of armed attack against Syria. Govt launched Operation Martyrs’ Revenge on outskirts of Baghdad, reportedly arresting over 670 suspected terrorists early-Aug. Meanwhile, head of pro-govt Sahwa tribal corps “New Sahwa” requested authorisation to arrest suspects without warrants in Sunni-populated areas where group deployed. PM Maliki’s State of Law coalition 15 Aug proposed parliamentary discussion on enacting state of emergency or martial law. FM Hoshyer Zeibari 15 Aug met with U.S. Sec State Kerry, requested U.S. weaponry and intelligence support to “combat terrorism” in Iraq. Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq Ammar al-hakim and religious authority Ali Sistani’s spokesman Abdul Mahdi al-Karbaly early Aug both criticised govt for failing to tackle insecurity.

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CrisisWatch N°132

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