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CrisisWatch Database

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Kashmir

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Indian FM Jaishankar visited Pakistan early March, met with PM Sharif and FM Chaudhry; Pakistan’s foreign ministry described visit as “ice-breaking development”, Jaishankar said countries “agreed to work together to find common ground and narrow differences”. Followed 26 Feb visit by Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif to locations in Punjab along working boundary separating Pakistan and India-administered Kashmir, during which he said “any provocation along the LoC (Line of Control) or the Working Boundary will meet a befitting response”. Six people including two terrorists, three security forces and a civilian killed in militant attack on police station in Jammu 20 March. Indian Defence Minister Parrikar 21 March said security forces had killed 26 terrorists so far in 2015. People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Mufti Mohammed Sayeed sworn in as chief minister of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir 1 March, 7 March ordered release of separatist leader and general secretary of All-Parties Hurriyat Conference Masarat Alam Bhat, provoking strong opposition from coalition govt partner PM Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. Islamabad High Court 13 March ordered release on bail of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba operative Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, charged with involvement in 2008 Mumbai attack, provoking strong reaction from New Delhi; Rehman detained by Punjab govt.

Afghanistan

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Govt and international backers hopeful of kickstarting peace talks with insurgents: President Ghani's special representative on reforms and good governance 12 March said Taliban had shown willingness to meet officials. Ghani 14 March reportedly visited Riyadh to consult with Saudi govt on potential talks; Pakistan and China also reportedly taking steps to facilitate process. Taliban deny taking part in negotiations. Ghani visited U.S. late month, addressed Congress; President Obama 24 March announced U.S. will slow withdrawal of troops, to train and assist Afghan forces in face of increased Taliban aggression: will maintain 9,800 troops till year-end, stick to 2017 exit plan. Series of kidnappings targeting Hazaras raised concerns about sectarian conflict and extremist groups claiming to have connections with Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL). Zabul province’s police chief 3 March said at least 60 militants killed/wounded in operations to rescue 31 Hazaras kidnapped 26 Feb. Other insurgent attacks included: over a dozen killed in/around Lashkar Gar 10, 18 March; at least seven police killed in Kunduz province ambush 12 March; gunmen shot dead at least thirteen on Kabul-Kandahar highway 24 March; nine killed in two suicide attacks in Kabul late March. Govt reported army killed ten insurgents in Helmand 15 March; authorities reported U.S. drone strikes killed twenty Pakistani militants in Nangarhar province late March. Independent Electoral Complaints Commission 1 March said at least 10,000 temporary and twenty permanent officials of Independent Election Commission involved in fraud during 2014 elections. Visiting Indian FM Jaishankar reportedly reiterated plans to develop mineral resources. Deputy chairman of High Peace Council 11 March complained body being sidelined by presidential palace amid preparations for peace talks with insurgents.

Pakistan

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Head of National Counter Terrorism Authority Hamid Ali Khan 8 March reportedly said govt had decided to drop three of twenty points in new counter-terrorism National Action Plan, namely actions against banned militant organisations, madrasa reform, and repatriation of Afghans; Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali refuted claim. After saying late Feb that govt plans to repatriate all Afghans, federal minister for state and frontier regions Abdul Qadir Baloch 11 March said govt instead planned to register 1.4 million unregistered Afghans. Suicide attacks on two Lahore churches 15 March killed seventeen, injured more than 70; amid countrywide demonstrations against attacks 17 March, Christian protestors allegedly killed two men by setting them on fire. Paramilitary Rangers 11 March raided Karachi HQ of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), detaining 100 and recovering weapons it claimed were stolen from NATO shipments (denied by U.S.). MQM alleged Rangers killed one of its members in raid; Rangers denied. Four suspected Taliban killed in clash with security forces in Karachi 10 March; two police killed in bomb attack in city 27 March. Spokesperson of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) breakaway faction Jamatul Ahrar 13 March announced his group and Khyber agency-based Lashkar-e-Islam merging with TTP. Former TTP commander in N Waziristan 16 March reportedly announced his newly-created breakaway faction Jaish-e-Muttaqi had reached peace deal with govt. Army 16 March announced successful end of its operation in Khyber agency; reported scores of militants killed in airstrikes and ground offensives in area in second half of month. Two polio vaccinators and police escort shot dead 17 March in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Mansehra district; another vaccinator killed in FATA’s Bajaur agency next day. Defence Minister Asif in talks with Saudi Arabia 31 March on whether to join Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen against Houthi rebels.

Sri Lanka

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Govt 23 March tabled draft bill for 19th constitutional amendment, key component in President Sirisena’s 100-day agenda. Amendment limits presidential powers, expands powers of PM, establishes series of independent oversight commissions. Sirisena 23 March appointed group of SLFP ministers to UNP-led government in bid to win SLFP support and two-thirds parliamentary majority for 19th amendment. Tensions in Sirisena’s broad coalition deepened over dates of parliamentary elections and introduction of new election laws. Supporters of ex-President Rajapaksa, including some SLFP MPs, held large rallies 6 and 26 March calling for his return as PM in next parliament. Indian PM Modi visited mid-March, called for full implementation of 13th amendment and “going beyond”. Sirisena visited China late March amid tension over suspension of work on key Chinese-funded development projects following corruption allegations. Sirisena visited London 8-10 March to attend Commonwealth meetings. UK PM Cameron pressed new govt to cooperate with OHCHR war crimes investigation. Sirisena promised domestic accountability mechanism, UN to play no role beyond offering advice. UN special rapporteur on transitional justice visited Sri Lanka end March. Govt 10 March released activist Balendran Jayakumari on bail, released some military-held land in north, allowed national anthem to be sung in Tamil. Multiple investigations into financial fraud by UPFA politicians underway, several corruption-related arrests made, court placed travel ban on Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Nepal

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

As parties again failed to overcome deadlock on overdue draft constitution, specifically over issue of federalism, 30-party alliance of opposition parties led by Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) announced fresh protests, nationwide strike early April. Constituent Assembly chair Subhash Nemwang extended deadline for agreement on constitution again.

Bangladesh

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia failed to appear at her trial for corruption 3 March despite threat of arrest; her lawyer said she was willing to appear and surrender to police if security was guaranteed, she was allowed bail and could return to her party office. Next court hearing scheduled for 5 April. BNP 9 March suspended ongoing 48-hour hartal (strike) before restoring strikes 10-13 March. Zia allowed to address press conference from her office 13 March, first since early Jan; reiterated demands for fresh election under neutral caretaker set-up, end to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, and dialogue to resolve political crisis. PM Sheikh Hasina next day ruled out fresh dialogue. Although Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) and BNP remain intractable in public positions, senior party officials from both sides have expressed willingness to talk, contingent on BNP ending violent street agitation, and govt ending abuse of human rights and fundamental political freedoms. Despite lower death toll in street clashes between pro-govt supporters and BNP-led opposition, political tensions and sporadic violence continue. Police 2 March arrested alleged activist of banned Hizb ut-Tahrir as prime suspect in murder of well-known Bangladeshi-American activist writer Avijit Roy, hacked to death on street in Dhaka 26 Feb; murder compounded public fears of extremists taking advantage of political crisis. Blogger Washiqur Rahman hacked to death in another attack in Dhaka 30 March. BNP’s SG Salahuddin Ahmed disappeared after being apprehended 10 March by men identifying themselves as police; police inspector general denied any agency under his control had Ahmed in custody. Five killed in arson attacks 19 March. Chief Election Commissioner 18 March announced long-overdue Dhaka and Chittagong mayoral polls for 28 April; BNP yet to decide if it will take part.

Kashmir

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Shelling continued across Line of Control (LoC) and India-Pakistan working boundary; Pakistan accused India of killing civilian 14 Feb. Pakistani PM Sharif 5 Feb addressed representatives of separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference in Pakistan-administered Kashmir on occasion of Kashmir Solidarity Day: reiterated support for Kashmiris’ right to self-determination, peaceful resolution of conflict. Pakistani Senate and National Assembly passed resolutions pledging support for Kashmiris, condemning “farcical” state elections in India-administered Kashmir. Trade and travel resumed across LoC 17 Feb after being halted following Indian arrest of truck driver accused of smuggling narcotics early Feb. At least six militants reported killed by Indian forces late Feb including two in Shopian district 25 Feb.

Afghanistan

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Delay in forming new unity cabinet continued, paralysing parts of administration and reducing customs revenue representing key source of govt income. New Interior Minister Nur-ul-Haq Ulumi early Feb travelled to outlying provinces to review security situation following parliament’s rejection of President Ghani’s defence minister nominee; Ulumi 14 Feb promised reform to stem rising police combat deaths. President Ghani 4 Feb threatened to fire any defence officials not ensuring weapons supplies and logistical support for soldiers, reflecting widespread concerns about lack of battlefield supplies. Govt forces mid-month launched major operation against insurgents in Helmand province. Turkish soldier killed in Taliban suicide attack on NATO vehicle in Kabul 26 Feb. Pakistani military officials 18 Feb claimed Taliban ready to begin peace talks with Kabul as early as March. UN 18 Feb reported 25% increase in civilian deaths in 2014 over 2013; ICRC reported collecting twice as many bodies from battlefield in 2014 than 2013.

Pakistan

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Uneven progress in implementing new counter-terrorism “National Action Plan”, adopted following deadly Dec attack on Peshawar school; army 13 Feb said nine militants arrested out of 27 linked to attack. Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT, also known as Jamaat-ud-Dawa) 5 Feb held rallies in several major cities after interior ministry official late Jan admitted neither LeT nor Haqqani Network added to list of banned terrorist organisations, contradicting earlier official claims. Punjab home minister 15 Feb said forty terrorism cases referred to military courts since Jan empowerment of courts to try civilian suspects under 21st constitutional amendment and Pakistan Army Act (amendment) bill; President Hussain 12 Feb extended latter to cover Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), allowing military courts to try terrorism suspects there. Pakistan Bar Council and Supreme Court Bar Association 9 Feb jointly challenged 21st amendment in Supreme Court: said it was passed under military pressure, undermines fundamental rights and judicial independence. Sectarian attacks and other militant violence continued: 22 killed in attack on Shiite mosque in Peshawar 13 Feb, another three killed in attack on mosque in Rawalpindi 18 Feb; paramilitary forces 15 Feb reportedly killed commander of Sunni group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), accused of masterminding deadly late Jan bombing of Shiite mosque in Sindh; several members of Sunni extremist group Sipah-e-Sahaba (also known as Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat) killed in targeted attacks, including three in Karachi 1 Feb; eight killed in suicide attack near Lahore police HQ 17 Feb. Military operation continued in NW: army claimed at least 25 militants killed 4 Feb. Fifteen separatist militants, one soldier reported killed in Balochistan province 10 Feb.

Sri Lanka

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Month saw new coalition govt make some progress on promised reform although at slower pace and with less public consultation than expected by many supporters: critics pointed to lack of concrete anti-corruption measures, including arrests of former officials; Tamils criticised continued army occupation of land in north and east, failure to release detainees held for years without charges. UN HRC 16 Feb approved six-month deferral of OHCHR report on alleged war crimes during civil war; govt promised to establish domestic accountability mechanism with consultation and support from OHCHR, agreement on details pending. Postponement of OHCHR report criticised by many, especially Tamil groups, who held large demonstrations in north and east. Northern provincial council 10 Feb passed resolution requesting UN investigation of alleged genocide against Tamils. Parliament 20 Feb approved long-promised victims and witness protection bill; text appeared largely unchanged from draft proposed by ex-President Rajapaksa’s govt. Supporters of Rajapaksa 18 Feb held major rally in Colombo calling on Rajapaksa to stand as PM candidate for former ruling coalition, United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), in general elections expected in June; rally joined by Buddhist militant group Bodu Bala Sena.

Nepal

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Prospective Constituent Assembly vote on draft constitution, pushed for by ruling parties following failure of political parties to meet 22 Jan deadline for reaching consensus, postponed indefinitely mid-month to allow resumption of negotiations; United Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-M) leader Baburam Bhattarai late month said talks will resume following scheduled 28 Feb opposition demonstrations. Govt 10 Feb set up committees to investigate alleged human rights abuses and disappearances during civil war era; Supreme Court 27 Feb rejected amnesty provision in April 2014 bill offering possible amnesty for human rights offenders.

Bangladesh

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged Risk Alert

Political crisis continued, threatening severe destabilisation of country: over 100 killed and hundreds injured since early Jan in violent anti-govt protests and country-wide transport blockade led by opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP); anti-corruption court 25 Feb issued warrant for BNP leader Zia’s arrest for non-appearance, raising fears of escalating violence in case warrant executed. PM Hasina 6 Feb compared actions of BNP and Islamist ally Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) to actions of Middle Eastern jihadi group Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL). Several civil society groups demonstrated for resolution to crisis, criticised negative economic impact including in country-wide protests early Feb; newly-formed committee of prominent jurists, retired officials and other civil society actors also pressed for AL-BNP dialogue; UNSG Ban mid-month urged Hasina and BNP leader Zia to engage in constructive dialogue. Zia remained confined to BNP offices in Dhaka; police 11 Feb temporarily blocked food and water supplies. Hasina 18 Feb promised govt action against newspaper for reprinting poster of banned Islamist group Hizb-ut Tahrir. Controversial International Crimes Tribunal, tasked with prosecuting war crimes committed during 1971 liberation war, 18 Feb sentenced senior JeI member Abdus Subhan to death.

Kashmir

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Firing across Line of Control and India-Pakistan working boundary continued: fifteen soldiers and civilians reported killed late Dec/early Jan. Governor’s rule imposed on Jammu and Kashmir 9 Jan after caretaker chief minister resigned following failure of parties to establish coalition govt after Nov-Dec state elections. Several militants reported killed by police, including five in Shopian district 15 Jan; army officer, policeman killed by militants in Pulwama district 27 Jan.

Afghanistan

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) 1 Jan assumed formal responsibility for all combat missions following conclusion of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission and its transition into follow-up mission “Resolute Support”. President Ghani 12 Jan announced cabinet nominees after months of delay; proposed cabinet seen as implying reduced influence of former mujahidin figures, increasing influence of former members of Soviet-backed govt. Several candidates mid-month withdrew nominations, some claimed parliamentarians demanded bribes or jobs for constituents in exchange for approval. Eight nominees approved by parliament late Jan including for interior, foreign affairs and finance ministries; approval process expected to continue into Feb. Violence continued across country including Taliban deputy shadow governor for Kapisa province reported killed 15 Jan. Army commander 18 Jan confirmed some insurgent factions swore allegiance to jihadi group Islamic State; observers estimated factions only loosely affiliated with militants in Iraq and Syria, play limited role in insurgency.

Sri Lanka

  |  2 Feb 2015

Improved

Long-time President Rajapaksa conceded defeat to joint opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena in 8 Jan presidential election; polling day largely peaceful despite widespread violence during campaign. Sirisena gained overwhelming support from Tamil and Muslim voters, about 45% of Sinhala votes. Senior members of new govt alleged Rajapaksa early morning 9 Jan attempted to declare state of emergency, called on army to stop vote-count and annul vote; move reportedly blocked by attorney general, head of police and army commander. Police subsequently launched investigations into incident and other alleged abuses of power by Rajapaksa, members of former administration. Sirisena 14 Jan announced new cabinet, dominated by United National Party, with members from all other joint opposition parties and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) members who backed him during election. Rajapaksa 16 Jan ceded leadership of SLFP and United People’s Freedom Alliance (UFPA) to Sirisena, formerly Rajapaksa’s health minister. Sirisena 15 Jan removed northern governor with history of obstructing work of Tamil National Alliance (TNA)-led provincial council; new PM Ranil Wickremasinghe said govt will allow council to exercise full powers under thirteenth amendment although appearing to rule out fuller devolution of power demanded by Tamil parties. Wickremasinghe and FM Mangala Samaraweera confirmed govt will establish domestic investigation into alleged war crimes during civil war, expressed willingness to engage with UN HRC; govt 16 Jan lifted restrictions on foreigners traveling to north, 28 Jan reinstated chief justice impeached by former government in 2013; justice resigned next day, Tamil candidate sworn in 30 Jan.

Bangladesh

  |  2 Feb 2015

Deteriorated

Month saw escalating political crisis, violent clashes between opposition and govt supporters around first anniversary of disputed Jan 2014 elections boycotted by opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP); at least 36 killed. Escalation raised fears about possible military intervention or exploitation of crisis by extremist and criminal networks; ruling Awami League (AL) denied country faces crisis, called BNP actions terrorism. Govt 3 Jan confined BNP leader Khaleda Zia to Dhaka BNP office in anticipation of BNP-led protests around 5 Jan election anniversary; move triggered deadly clashes between BNP and AL activists, at least four BNP workers killed, including two reportedly by security forces, leading Zia to call for indefinite countrywide strike, transport blockade. Zia released 19 Jan; said blockade would continue until govt agreed to dialogue, announced 48-hour strike in Dhaka, Sylhet and Khulna. Zia implicated for instigating two cases of arson during blockade; her son Tarique Rahman charged with treason 8 Jan.

Nepal

  |  2 Feb 2015

Deteriorated

Political parties failed to reach consensus on constitution draft before 22 Jan deadline despite reportedly reaching agreement on several core issues 19 Jan. Scuffles broke out in parliament during Constituent Assembly sessions around deadline as ruling parties tried to push vote on draft; Maoist opposition organised general strike, rallies. Ruling parties 25 Jan tasked committee with resolving contentious issues before vote; Maoists vowed one-month boycott of committee and more protests, insisted on consensus decision.

Pakistan

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Govt and parliamentary opposition continued to cede control over national security policy to military following deadly mid-Dec Peshawar school attack by Pakistani Taliban (TTP); 6 Jan passed 21st constitutional amendment and Pakistan Army Act (amendment) bill 2015, overriding many fundamental rights and allowing military courts to try civilian terrorism suspects. Supreme Court 22 Jan decided to consider petitions against 21st amendment after Lahore High Court Bar Association 2 Jan passed resolution against military courts, Sindh High Court Bar Association 14 Jan challenged amendment through constitutional petition; outcome of consideration seen as defining test of court’s willingness to uphold judicial independence, fundamental rights. Govt closed 40 printing presses and stores, reportedly arrested 157 for hate speech or publishing hate material following late Dec adoption of counter-terrorism “National Action Plan”; 20 prisoners executed by mid-Jan following lifting of moratorium on death penalty. Jamaat-ud-Dawa (formerly Lashkar-e-Tayyaba) and other jihadi groups continued to operate freely despite govt pledges to end distinction between “good” and “bad” militants, latter targeting Pakistani state, former neighbouring countries. At least 60 killed in bombing of Shiite mosque in Sindh province’s Shikarpur district 30 Jan. Dozens of militants reported killed in U.S. drone strikes including six in N Waziristan 19 Jan. Military operation continued in NW; army claimed 92 militants killed in airstrikes 27 Jan.

Kashmir

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Final four phases of Jammu and Kashmir state elections held 2-20 Dec; People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 28 seats, PM Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) second with 25 seats. Militants launched several deadly attacks during election period, including at least 21 reported killed in four separate attacks 5 Dec. Four Pakistani, one Indian soldier reported killed in cross-border firing 31 Dec.

Afghanistan

  |  5 Jan 2015

Deteriorated

Unprecedented wave of insurgent attacks continued in Kabul, raising concerns over viability of new govt: suicide bomber 11 Dec killed German citizen, mortally wounded Afghan journalist at French cultural institute; suicide bombers killed at least thirteen Afghan troops in attacks on military transport vehicles 11 and 13 Dec; two NATO troops killed in suicide bombing outside Bagram airbase north of Kabul 12 Dec. UN 20 Dec said record number of civilians killed in 2014: death toll up 19% by late Nov compared to 2013. U.S. Sec Defence Hagel 6 Dec announced 1,000 additional U.S. troops to remain in country past 2014, raising total to 10,800. Delay in naming new cabinet persisted, indicating continued tensions between supporters of President Ghani and govt “chief executive” Abdullah. Two Taliban leaders reported killed in Baraki Barak district, Logar province 7 Dec; militants next day killed eleven when storming administration complex in Kandahar’s Maiwand district. Security forces mid-Dec began operation in eastern border areas after Pakistani army requested help targeting Pakistani Taliban (TTP) hideouts in response to deadly mid-Dec TTP attack on Peshawar school (see Pakistan); four TTP militants, seven others reported killed in U.S. drone strike 16 Dec.

Sri Lanka

  |  5 Jan 2015

Risk Alert

Joint opposition presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena mounted significant challenge to President Rajapaksa ahead of 8 Jan election; tight race raised concerns about serious election day and post-election violence. Rajapaksa 22 Dec promised peaceful transition in case of defeat despite numerous reports of intimidation of opposition, including almost daily violent attacks on activists, rallies; persistent allegations of large-scale illegal use of state resources and workers for pro-Rajapaksa campaigning. Race tightened throughout month with continued defections from ruling United People Freedom Alliance (UPFA) alliance, many blaming govt corruption. Sinhala nationalist Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) 1 Dec announced support for Sirisena; govt lost two-thirds parliamentary majority with 22 Dec departure of All Ceylon Muslim Congress (ACMC), followed 27 Dec by Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), both criticising govt failure to protect Muslims. Sirisena 19 Dec released campaign manifesto: pledged reduction of presidential powers, other governance reforms; no mention of devolution of power or other key Tamil concerns; announced no cooperation with any international efforts to prosecute govt or military leaders for alleged war crimes. Tamil National Alliance (TNA) 30 Dec pledged support for Sirisena; smaller All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC) called for election boycott. Elections Commissioner Mahinda Deshapriya mid-Dec announced EU request to monitor elections denied; 19 Dec said election monitors will only be allowed at 300 of 1,115 ballot counting centres.

Bangladesh

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) late Dec scheduled anti-govt rallies in Dhaka for early Jan, including on 5 Jan anniversary of 2014 elections boycotted by party; senior member of ruling Awami League (AL) Mohammad Nasim mid-Dec warned BNP will not be allowed to “create anarchy”. BNP leader Khaleda Zia 21 Dec called govt “illegal”, requested discussions with opposition to pave way for general elections. Dhaka court 10 Dec issued arrest warrant against Zia’s son, BNP vice chairman Tarique Rahman, for allegedly insulting country’s AL wartime president. Former Jatiya Party minister and senior Jamaat-e-Islami leader sentenced to death over alleged 1971 war crimes late Dec.

Pakistan

  |  5 Jan 2015

Deteriorated
Pakistani Taliban (TTP) 16 Dec killed at least 148, including 132 children, in unprecedentedly deadly attack on military-run school in north-western city Peshawar; TTP called attack retaliation for army killings during operation against militants in NW. Military campaign escalated following attack, including scores reported killed in Khyber agency 18-19 Dec; militant suspected of involvement in Peshawar attack reported killed 26 Dec. PM Sharif lifted moratorium on death penalty: six non-TTP militants, allegedly responsible for attacks on military, executed 19-21 Dec, including five over failed 2003 assassination attempt against former President Musharraf; Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan 22 Dec said preparations underway for executions of nearly 500 terrorism convicts. Interior ministry late Dec claimed to have arrested several militants in relation to Peshawar attack; issued arrest warrants for TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah and former spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid over June 2014 Karachi airport attack. At least twenty TTP militants reported killed by police in Karachi 18-21 Dec. Parliamentary committee 24 Dec reached agreement on several counter-terrorism measures, including setting up special military courts to hear terrorism cases; Senate opposition leaders opposed setting up military courts through constitutional amendment that would curtail fundamental rights. Govt announced PM Sharif will head committee supervising implementation of new counter-terrorism “National Action Plan”. Supreme Court 9 Dec dismissed all petitions for PM Sharif’s removal, including from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). PTI mid-month organised anti-govt protests in Karachi and Lahore before calling off further protests in response to Peshawar attack. Court 18 Dec granted bail to Lashkar-e-Taiba commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, behind deadly 2008 attacks in Mumbai, drawing strong reactions from India (see India); Lakhvi later detained on other charges. U.S.-wanted al-Qaeda leader reported killed by army in S Waziristan 6 Dec; four reported killed in U.S. drone strike next day, at least dozen more killed in N Waziristan late month.

Nepal

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Political Dialogue and Consensus Committee (PDCC) early Dec admitted failure to reach consensus between political parties ahead of 22 Jan deadline for drafting constitution; task force consisting of representatives of main parties late month failed to resolve disputes.

Kashmir

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

First phase of Jammu and Kashmir state elections began 25 Nov, results due 23 Dec. Indian authorities early Nov arrested several Kashmiri separatist leaders; move provoked demonstrations in Srinagar, human rights activists argued arrests aimed at suppressing anti-India vote. Indian defense minister 5 Nov said Pakistani authorities must choose between dialogue with Indian govt or Kashmiri separatists; Pakistan rejected conditions for dialogue. Twelve reported killed in attack on army base near border with Pakistan 27-28 Nov, including four militants, three soldiers, five civilians. Occasional firing across Line of Control (LoC) continued, including one soldier, one civilian reported killed 8 Nov. Indian military court 13 Nov sentenced five soldiers, including two officers, to life imprisonment over murder of three civilians in 2010.

Afghanistan

  |  1 Dec 2014

Deteriorated

Month saw series of Taliban attacks on foreign targets in Kabul: seven killed, including one Briton, in attacks on UK embassy vehicle, foreign compound 27 Nov; three South Africans killed in attack on foreign guest house next day; four suicide bombers killed 19 Nov in attack on “Green Village” international zone. President Ghani 30 Nov dismissed caretaker govt amid continued delay in formation of new unity cabinet, reflecting difficulty of reaching compromise between opposing factions supporting Ghani and govt “chief executive” Abdullah. Ghani, Abdullah continued to insist on formation of technocratic administration with educated candidates in senior positions despite perceived risks of excluding influential powerbrokers lacking formal education. International donors urged formation of govt before London conference to review funding commitments 5 Dec; several parliamentarians warned delay causing insecurity. Parliament late Nov approved Sept agreements allowing U.S., NATO troops in country beyond 2014. Parliament’s lower house 5 Nov criticised Independent Election Commission (IEC), Independent Electoral Complaint Commission (IECC) for refusing to brief lawmakers on allegations of widespread fraud in provincial council elections; acting Balkh governor Atta Mohammad Noor 9 Nov accused IEC, IECC of committing fraud, accepting bribes. Violence continued across country including at least 62 reported killed by suicide bomber at volleyball match in Paktika province 23 Nov; thirteen militants reported killed by police 10 Nov in Kunduz province, including Taliban shadow governor for Takhar province.

Nepal

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Political Dialogue and Consensus Committee 18 Nov postponed drafting of constitution indefinitely after opposition blocked ruling parties’ proposal for settling contentious issues. Netra Bikram Chand-led faction 24 Nov split from Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) over alleged failure of CPN-M leader Mohan Baidya to advance class struggle.

Bangladesh

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Month saw several strikes and demonstrations by Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), including in Dhaka, after controversial International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) late Oct sentenced JeI leader Motiur Rahman Nizami to death over alleged 1971 war crimes. Supreme Court 3 Nov upheld death sentence against JeI leader Muhammad Kamaruzzaman; govt 5 Nov requested preparations for execution, attorney general said apex court’s full verdict still required. ICT 2 Nov sentenced senior JeI member Mir Quasem Ali to death. JeI protests less violent than in past despite some incidents includingvandalism, crude bomb explosions and vehicle torching; observers warned of risk of escalation if sentences carried out. ICT 13 Nov sentenced member of opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) to death; 24 Nov sentenced to death expelled former local leader of ruling Awami League. BNP continued struggling to mobilise long-promised mass movement; leader Khaleda Zia criticised “inactivity” of other parties. Police 9 Nov shot BNP demonstrators in Gazipur, other districts, injuring around 30. Supreme Court 24 Nov rejected appeals in corruption case against Zia, clearing way for trial. Indian, Bangladeshi officials mid-Nov discussed counter-terrorism cooperation after India late Oct claimed to have uncovered Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) plot to assassinate PM Sheikh Hasina, carry out coup; police 23 Nov said four JMB members arrested in Dhaka, another five suspected militants arrested in Chittagong. Harkatul Jihad al-Islami members, arrested late Oct/early Nov, admitted to receiving training in Pakistan from Lashkar-e-Tayyaba for attacks inside Bangladesh.

Sri Lanka

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Election commission 21 Nov announced presidential polls scheduled for 8 Jan after President Rajapaksa called early election; observers predicted violent campaign, risk of coup in case of opposition victory. General Secretary of ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Maithripala Sirisena, 21 Nov resigned to run against Rajapaksa; fisheries minister, three other lawmakers resigned, pledged support for Sirisena as common opposition candidate in broad coalition led by main opposition United National Party (UNP). Sinhala nationalist party Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), part of Rajapaksa's United People Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition, 18 Nov announced resignation from govt without joining opposition; expected to back Sirisena. Supreme Court 10 Nov declared Rajapaksa eligible to run for third term despite widespread doubts about legality. Left-wing Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) 17 Nov held major rally in Colombo, called Rajapaksa’s candidacy for third term illegal. UN HCHR Zeid 7 Nov criticised govt campaign of “distortion and disinformation”, “insidious” attempts to intimidate witnesses in OHCHR investigation; move followed late Oct arrest of Tamil gathering information for investigators, govt’s subsequent public rebuke of investigation.

Pakistan

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Large-scale demonstrations by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) continued in several cities despite dwindling attendance in Islamabad: Khan 9 Nov called for involvement of military’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Military Intelligence (MI) in judicial commission to investigate fraud in 2013 elections; call met with sharp criticism, including from major political parties, govt rejected demand. Khan threatened to wage “decisive war” against govt ahead of 30 Nov Islamabad rally. Suicide bomber 2 Nov killed at least 57, injured hundreds near Wagah-Attari border with India; Pakistani Taliban (TTP) group Jamaat-ul Ahrar claimed responsibility, threatened attacks inside India. Afghan President Ghani 15 Nov visited Islamabad; PM Sharif expressed support for “Afghan-led”, “intra-Afghan” reconciliation process, Ghani promised to target Pakistani tribal militants operating from Afghanistan. Sharif’s foreign affairs advisor Sartaj Aziz 17 Nov suggested military should not target anti-U.S. militant groups not posing threat to state, including Haqqani network; foreign ministry claimed Aziz quoted out of context. Military operation in N Waziristan continued: army 16 Nov said 90% of N Waziristan cleared of militants, 1,200 killed in past five months; two IDPs killed in clash with police 13 Nov in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s (KPK) Bannu district. TTP chief Fazlullah 25 Nov survived U.S. drone strike in Afghan border province, five other militants killed. Highest number of polio cases since 1999 recorded mid-Nov; three killed in bomb attack on polio patrol in FATA’s Bajaur agency 11 Nov, four polio workers shot dead in Quetta 26 Nov. Mob 4 Nov tortured and killed two Christians outside Lahore following blasphemy charges by local clerics; policeman next day killed Shia held on blasphemy charges in Gujrat. PM Sharif, Indian PM Modi dismissed rumours about planned bilateral meeting during late Nov summit of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation in Nepal.

Kashmir

  |  1 Nov 2014

Deteriorated

Hostilities across Line of Control (LoC) continued, often provoked by Pakistani military to provide cover for cross-border militant movement; at least 20 civilians reported killed. Indian govt 21 Oct warned continued violations would result in “pain” for Pakistan. Fears hostile Indian rhetoric could further narrow options for Pakistani govt struggling with military to exercise control over India policy: Pakistani army general Raheel Sharif 18 Oct said lasting peace in region depends on “fair and just resolution” of Kashmir issue, reflecting continued military rejection of PM Sharif’s attempts to normalise relations with India through stronger economic ties (see Pakistan). Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Chief Minister Omar Abdullah 4 Oct said upcoming state elections should be delayed until residents have recovered from deadly Sept floods; election commission late Oct announced month-long five-phase election starting 25 Nov. Militant reported killed by security forces 3 Oct in Pulwama district; soldier killed in clash with militants 13 Oct in Kupwara district.

Afghanistan

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Cohesion of new unity govt remained uncertain following late Sept inauguration of Ashraf Ghani as president, appointment of runner-up Abdullah Abdullah as “chief executive officer”; sides yet to agree on appointments of cabinet members, other key positions. Ghani 1 Oct promised merit-based appointment of governors, mid-Oct promised same for senior military officials. Police 11 Oct arrested seven in connection with 2010 Kabul Bank collapse after Ghani instructed attorney general’s office to reopen investigation; special tribunal formed 29 Oct to review case. Head of Independent Electoral Complaint Commission (IECC) 9 Oct described holding presidential and provincial council elections simultaneously as failure, suggested future rounds should be separate. Independent Election Commission (IEC) 10 Oct confirmed receiving IECC’s decision on final results of provincial polls, said IECC's ruling needs further clarification. Defence ministry late Oct reported 23% increase in casualties among soldiers, police over past six months, making 2014 deadliest year since U.S.-led invasion. Violence continued across country including: seven killed in twin Taliban suicide bombings in Kabul 1 Oct; Taliban next day claimed control of Registan district, Kandahar province; scores of Taliban, govt forces reported killed in clashes in Sar-e Pul province 13 Oct.

Nepal

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Political parties 17 Oct missed another deadline for reaching consensus on core issues in constitution drafting process, new deadline set for 1 Nov. Opposition United Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-M) held protests against alleged sidelining in drafting process; rejected ruling parties’ proposal to vote on disputed issues, called for consensus decision.

Sri Lanka

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Govt 20 Oct announced early presidential election for Jan 2015 in possible sign of President Rajapaksa’s concern with waning popularity; Rajapaksa 24 Oct presented populist budget to parliament featuring tax reductions and increased subsidies, public sector jobs, salaries. Election announcement exacerbated strains in ruling United People Freedom Alliance (UPFA); coalition’s left wing parties and Sinhala nationalist Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) expressed opposition to move. JHU 14 Oct presented proposal for constitutional reforms including abolishment of executive presidency, threatened to campaign against Rajapaksa if proposal not implemented prior to election; JHU and UPFA leaders met 27 Oct to discuss proposal. Opposition remained in disarray despite signs of Rajapaksa’s vulnerability: no consensus over joint candidate, political platform. Militant Buddhist Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) 5 Oct publicised constitutional reform platform: proposed making Sri Lanka Buddhist state, giving monks formal roles in governance. Military mid-month reimposed requirement that foreign passport holders receive prior permission before travelling to Northern Province; observers suspected restrictions targeted at UN OHCHR war crimes investigators. EU’s General Court 16 Oct overturned on procedural grounds EU’s 2006 listing of LTTE as terrorist organisation, maintained accompanying assets freeze.

Pakistan

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Month saw anti-govt demonstrations in Islamabad lose momentum, attendance dwindle; protest leaders Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Tahirul Qadri of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) mobilised rallies outside capital, including in Karachi, Lahore, smaller cities in Punjab; Qadri 22 Oct ended PAT protest in Islamabad. Demonstrations retained potential to undermine political stability: Supreme Court 15 Oct admitted appeal by PTI member to disqualify PM Sharif for lying to parliament despite lack of constitutional provision for such disqualification, apparently overstepping jurisdiction. PTI held govt responsible for failure to prevent seven deaths in stampede during PTI rally in Punjab’s Multan 10 Oct. Govt 17 Oct reportedly resumed talks with PAT over alleged June police killing of 14 PAT demonstrators in Lahore; Qadri 19 Oct declared settlement only possible if perpetrators hanged; left country 28 Oct after ending Islamabad sit-in, pledged to return mid-Nov. TTP spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid fired after declaring allegiance to Syria and Iraq-based jihadi group Islamic State along with five regional TTP commanders mid-month. Sectarian violence continued: six killed in Shia majority neighbourhood in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Kohat district 4 Oct; six Hazara Shias killed in Quetta same day; another thirteen reported killed 23 Oct including nine Hazaras. Military continued operations in N Waziristan; mid- to late Oct conducted operations in Khyber Agency, claimed to have killed scores of militants, thousands of civilians fled fighting. U.S. increased drone strikes in S and N Waziristan: conducted nine strikes within one week starting 5 Oct, at least eight reported killed 6 Oct.

Bangladesh

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Main opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) vowed to launch mass demonstrations against govt starting second week of Oct after PM Hasina late Sept ruled out possibility of mid-term election, any dialogue with opposition; BNP struggled to mount significant opposition. Lawyers 16 Oct boycotted courts over late Sept signing of controversial sixteenth constitutional amendment restoring parliament’s authority to impeach Supreme Court judges. Dhaka court again deferred trial of BNP leader Khaleda Zia, hearing adjourned to 9 Nov after Zia refused to attend trial proceedings citing security concerns. Over 100 BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) activists charged mid-month over violence in run-up to Jan 2014 election; senior JeI member Motiur Rahman Nizami sentenced to death 29 Oct over alleged 1971 war crimes.

Sri Lanka

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Ruling UPFA coalition 20 Sept won narrow victory in Uva provincial polls with much reduced margins from previous elections, despite large-scale illegal use of state resources for govt candidates, violence against opposition campaigners. Strong performance of main opposition UNP seen as increasing likelihood of early presidential election, expected Jan 2015. Militant Buddhist Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) 28 Sept held large rally of monks in Colombo in “defense of Buddhism”; attended by Myanmar’s Ashin Wirathu, accused of inciting deadly anti-Muslim violence. UN human rights chief Zeid 25 Sept urged govt to end “climate of intimidation, threat and harassment against civil society actors”, incitement to hatred and violence against Muslims, Christians; called for enhanced accountability. In UNGA speech President Rajapaksa 25 Sept rejected OHCHR war crimes investigation as unbalanced, politically motivated. Police detained Catholic priest in Jaffna early Sept for allegedly gathering evidence for OHCHR. Govt 10 Sept proposed long-promised witness and victim protection law in parliament seeking to address international concerns over accountability.

Nepal

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

All-party conference on constitution drafting process scheduled for 16 Sept postponed following boycott by extra-parliamentary party alliance led by Communist Party Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M); CPN-M alleged conference would fail to address CPN-M concerns. CPN-M organised several protests against Nepal-India power trade agreement signed early month.

Kashmir

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Pakistani govt’s efforts to normalise relations with India through trade liberalisation jeopardised by sporadic clashes along Line of Control (LoC), Pakistani military’s reported attempts to use anti-govt protests in Islamabad to pressure PM Sharif to further relinquish control over foreign policy. Sharif called for international support to resolve Kashmir dispute in UNGA speech late month; Indian PM Modi questioned Sharif’s highlighting of Kashmir issue, offered bilateral talks but rejected dialogue under “shadow of terrorism”. Pakistani Islamic militant group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba provided assistance to flood-affected population in Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, leader Hafiz Saeed accused India of deliberately allowing waters to flood Pakistan; claims echoed by Islamist Jamaat-i-Islami. PMs Sharif and Modi exchanged letters offering assistance in relief efforts. Pakistani high commissioner Abdul Basit mid-month met Indian Foreign Secretary Singh following Aug cancellation of FM-level talks. Several militants reported killed by security forces including three alleged Jaish-e-Muhammad members 2 Sept in Pulwama district; Lashkar-e-Tayyaba commander killed in Kupwara district 9 Sept; several militants killed along LoC, including four in clashes 20 Sept.

Bangladesh

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Awami League (AL) won significant political victories, moved to consolidate power: Supreme Court 14 Sept rejected appeals by opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia in embezzlement case; possibility of life sentence. Parliament 17 Sept unanimously passed controversial constitutional amendment giving it power to impeach Supreme Court judges, signed by President Hamid late Sept. Three BNP leaders, 38 other BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) members indicted 1 Sept for violence during 2013 election-related demonstrations. Major protests in Dhaka against 17 Sept Supreme Court decision to commute death sentence of JeI leader to life imprisonment; demonstrators demanded death sentence, JeI called for a two-day strike to condemn Sayeedi’s conviction.

Afghanistan

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Presidential candidates Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah 21 Sept signed agreement on unity govt: Ghani to assume presidency, Abdullah new position of chief executive officer. Independent Election Commission (IEC) same day declared Ghani winner of June run-off vote, said no formal result will be announced. Ghani, Abdullah inaugurated 29 Sept; new govt next day signed long-delayed Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with U.S.. Deal followed pressure from international donors for negotiated settlement rather than outright victory partly due to threats of violence from Abdullah’s supporters and flawed ballot audit. Members of parliament’s lower house 8 Sept urged candidates to end electoral crisis citing economic and security implications of continued deadlock; Balkh provincial governor and prominent Abdullah supporter Atta Mohammed Noor 11 Sept accused President Karzai of colluding with IEC and Ghani in rigging vote, said unwilling to accept govt elected through fraud. Independent Electoral Complaint Commission (IECC) 15 Sept announced 1,683 of 2,200 complaints registered by Abdullah’s team legitimate; finding not enough to put Abdullah in lead. Violence intensified with months-long political deadlock boosting insurgency: attacks escalated over past months despite previous years seeing decrease in late summer. Interior ministry 1 Sept reported at least 41 Taliban killed across country; officials 4 Sept claimed 22 insurgents killed in Logar province, Taliban said dozens of police killed or injured; at least 48 insurgents reported killed in Balkh province 7 Sept. Taliban fighters 14 Sept entered main bazaar, attacked administrative HQ in Helmand’s Sangin district; local officials warned district could fall to insurgents. Similar warnings from Ghazni officials after more than 100 reported killed in Ajrestan district during late-month Taliban assault. Seven killed in Taliban suicide attack near Kabul airport on inauguration day 29 Sept.

Pakistan

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Continued signs military exploiting protests by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Tahirul Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) to influence politics: PTI president Javed Hashmi 1 Sept said military elements encouraged Khan-led protests; Khan 16 Sept claimed army chief said govt would meet all protest demands except PM’s resignation. Joint session of parliament 19 Sept condemned protests. Govt negotiations with PTI and PAT suspended after police arrested over 500 protestors in Islamabad and Lahore 12 Sept; majority quickly released, charges dropped. Over 300 killed, hundreds of thousands displaced by flooding in Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, adding to almost 1mn displaced by ongoing military operation in N Waziristan. Jihadi organisations continued to exploit govt failure to provide adequate assistance: offered assistance through charity wings, sought to stoke anti-India sentiments in flood-affected areas (see Kashmir). Military claimed more than 1,000 militants, some 100 soldiers killed in N Waziristan operation since mid-June. Army spokesman 15 Sept claimed Pakistani Taliban (TTP) no longer able to launch attacks; at least four reported killed in TTP suicide bombing targeting military convoy in Peshawar 23 Sept; two killed in attack targeting senior counter-terrorism police officer in Karachi 25 Sept; at least seven killed in attack on IDP camp in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 28 Sept. TTP faction “Punjabi Taliban” 5 Sept declared intention to halt attacks in Pakistan and focus on Afghanistan, indicating peace deal with military. Other Punjab-based anti-Shia groups continued sectarian killings countrywide including: son of Shia Jafria Alliance Pakistan party leader murdered 6 Sept in Karachi by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi; head of Karachi University Islamic Studies department shot dead 19 Sept. Lieutenant General Rizwan Akhtar appointed new chief of Inter-Services Intelligence 22 Sept. At least 14 suspected militants reported killed in U.S. drone strikes in N and S Waziristan late month.

Pakistan

  |  1 Sep 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Month saw mass anti-govt demonstrations threaten fragile democratic transition, raise fears of military intervention: parallel protests led by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan and Pakistan Awami Tehreek leader, cleric Tahirul Qadri, demanded PM Sharif's resignation and parliament's dissolution, rejected govt offers of negotiated settlement. Govt refuted rumours of military support for protests, relied on army for security in Islamabad despite concerns military could exploit crisis to extend political influence at govt’s expense; coup seen as unlikely by observers, opposed by all mainstream political parties, civil society, and superior courts. Khan and Qadri-led protest marches reached Islamabad from Lahore mid-month after at least 4 Qadri supporters killed in clashes with police early month in Punjab; 19 Aug entered Islamabad’s “Red Zone” containing parliament, other official buildings. Fears spread extremists could exploit situation to attack high level targets, provoke violence. Govt sought peaceful resolution including accepting Khan’s demands for audit of 2013 election result in certain constituencies, judicial commission investigation of vote rigging allegations; talks ongoing late month, both Qadri and Khan continued refusing to modify demand for PM’s resignation. Army chief Raheel Sharif 28 Aug met protest leaders, reportedly agreed to act as guarantor for deal with govt; military’s overt role strongly condemned in parliament, PM Sharif 29 Aug insisted govt only requested military facilitation, no request to act as mediator or guarantor; Khan and Qadri denied responsibility for involving military. At least 3 killed, over 200 wounded in clashes between protesters and police 30-31 Aug. Military continued N Waziristan operation, claimed progress in dismantling militant networks; at least 5 alleged militants killed in 6 Aug U.S. drone strike N Waziristan. Militants launched several high profile attacks including: 13 soldiers injured, 11 attackers killed in 14 Aug attacks on 2 Quetta air force bases, claimed by Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). N Waziristan IDP crisis deteriorated further: military continued to refuse access for local and international humanitarian agencies; vacuum exploited by charity wings of jihadi organisations.

Kashmir

  |  1 Sep 2014

Deteriorated

Sharp deterioration in India-Pakistan relations as FM-level talks, aimed at setting agenda for resuming dialogue process, cancelled by India following 18 Aug meeting between Pakistan’s High Commissioner and Kashmiri separatist leaders in New Delhi. Meeting followed resumption of periodic clashes along Line of Control: at least dozen casualties reported. PM Modi 12 Aug visited Kargil in Jammu and Kashmir, first PM visit since 1999, condemned Pakistan for “proxy war of terrorism against India”; allegation strongly refuted by Pakistan. Unknown gunmen 13 Aug reportedly killed 2 police, 1 civilian in Pulwama district; militants 16 Aug shot dead 2 soldiers outside Pulwama air base.

Nepal

  |  1 Sep 2014

Unchanged

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi early month visited the country, highest level visit in 17 years; India and Nepal held a two-week joint military exercise on counter insurgency, jungle warfare and disaster management late month.

Sri Lanka

  |  1 Sep 2014

Unchanged

Govt continued crackdown on civil society groups following July banning of NGOs from holding press conferences, other public activities; continued to promise more restrictive laws on NGO operations. Several instances of intimidation including: mob led by Buddhist monks 4 Aug broke into church in Colombo, disrupted meeting between activists, diplomats and families of people missing since 2009 civil war; attack condemned by U.S., European govts. Series of armed attacks late month against main opposition party offices and workers during Uva province election campaign. President Rajapaksa 19 Aug said govt will refuse visas for UN investigators probing war crimes accusations, UNHCHR Pilay earlier said investigation can continue without access.

Afghanistan

  |  1 Sep 2014

Unchanged

Election stalemate continued despite U.S. Sec State Kerry early Aug persuading presidential candidates Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani to sign statement pledging support for outcome of ongoing ballot audit process, renewing commitment to July political deal; Ghani campaign days later expressed doubt about power-sharing aspects of deal, Abdullah-supporter Balkh Governor Atta Mohammed Noor warned of possible civil uprisings. Abdullah 27 Aug boycotted audit protesting process for invalidating votes; pledged to rejoin if demands met in talks with UN. Security forces 11 Aug started disarming armed groups in central Parwan province, stronghold of Abdullah support. Economic effect of political deadlock underscored by govt’s 17 Aug announcement of at least 50% decline in revenue since first election round in April. Pakistani newspaper 4 Aug reported Hezb-e-Islami insurgent faction negotiated joining new govt with Abdullah, Ghani; both candidates denied claim. Ministry of Defence 17 Aug rejected talks with Taliban, disavowing statement by special forces commander in Helmand announcing pursuit of local deal with insurgents. Kandahar chief of police, Brigadier-General Abdul Raziq, 7 Aug said 171 insurgents killed in recent operations, Taliban suspects killed rather than captured. Nangarhar province security officials 14 Aug claimed 145 Taliban killed in operation, including 23 Pakistanis.

Bangladesh

  |  1 Sep 2014

Unchanged

Prospects of reconciliation between ruling Awami League (AL) and opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) remained slim: govt 4 Aug approved broadcast policy criticised by opposition and civil society for threatening freedom of expression; policy challenged in Supreme Court 18 Aug, BNP held protests in Dhaka. Govt claimed policy merely “guidelines”, not enforceable. Draft act on NGOs pending before parliament: regulates activities of NGOs receiving foreign funds, penalises NGOs allegedly involved in activities deemed “illegal or harmful for country”. Cabinet 18 Aug approved draft constitutional amendment restoring parliament’s authority to impeach Supreme Court judges; criticised by prominent lawyers, former judges for undermining judicial independence. Police continued raids against extremist group Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh, responsible for 2005 bombings, following late July arrest of 3 suspected activists in Dhaka; state minister for home affairs Asaduzzam Khan said JMB regrouping, seeking links with international terrorist groups including al-Qaeda.

Nepal

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Deputy PM Bam Dev Gautam 15 July said new constitution to be introduced 22 Jan 2015, preceded by local elections same month. 5-party Maoist alliance 22 July agreed in principle to talks with govt aimed at settling political disputes.

Kashmir

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Several incidents of cross-border violence including: Indian army 3 July reportedly killed 3 militants along Line of Control (LoC); Pakistani troops 16 July reportedly fired on Indian border outposts killing soldier; Pakistani civilian reported killed in Indian mortar shelling days later near Punjab border, another Pakistani killed 23 July in Shakargarh; 2 reported killed, including 1 Indian soldier, in separate border incidents 22 July. Lashkar-e-Tayyaba militant reported killed 9 July during joint army-police operation in Kupwara district. 1 police shot dead by militants in Bijbehara town 25 July, another killed in grenade blast during protest in Sopore next day. Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar 17 July said govt willing to negotiate reduction of negative list of tradable items from India if bilateral dialogue revived, including on Kashmir dispute; commerce ministers scheduled to meet 24 July in Bhutan during eighth SAFTA ministerial council meeting, Indian minister did not attend.

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