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Iraq

  |  1 May 2013

Deteriorated Risk Alert
Standoff between Sunni protesters and govt intensified in last week of April, increasing fears that political crisis could evolve into conflict between govt forces and protesters’ armed factions. Over 50 killed in army raid on Sunni protest camp in Hawija near Kirkuk 23 April; raid followed killing of Iraqi army officer in clashes with protesters 19 April. Hawija incident prompted retaliation against govt forces with clashes in Sulaiman Bek city, Mosul, scores killed across country; also pushed protesters to organise militarily, claiming need to defend against security forces. Tensions increased in Sunni-dominated Anbar province 29 April as 5 members of security forces killed, army gave protesters 24 hours to hand over those responsible. Reports emerged that U.S. Sec State Kerry during late-March visit to Baghdad pressured Iraqi leaders to halt flow of Iranian weapons to Syria, find formula for domestic stability. Kurdistan Regional Govt president Barzani sent delegation to Baghdad 3 April to discuss issues that led to withdrawal of Kurdish ministers/MPs from Baghdad; no agreement reached. Following Kerry’s visit govt stated it was ready to negotiate with representatives of Sunni protesters, but no negotiations took place. Govt made selective concessions to some groups, further dividing protesters; Cabinet 8 April approved amendment to de-Baathification legislation known as Justice and Accountability Law, which could appease protesters affiliated with former regime granting them pensions, access to employment. Security continued to deteriorate in run-up to 20 April provincial elections in majority of governorates (not Anbar, Ninewa and Kirkuk), with frequent attacks on candidates, dozens killed in over 20 attacks March-April. Partial results suggest PM Maliki’s State of Law coalition confirmed its solid power base in south.

Egypt

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Amid ongoing violent clashes between protesters and police, anti-govt protesters 12 April attempted assault on Muslim Brotherhood (MB) HQ in Alexandria and presidential palace in Cairo. Pro-MB and other Islamists 19 April staged protest demanding judicial purge to remove judges linked to Mubarak regime; Justice Minister Ahmed Mekki resigned 21 April pre-empting removal in forthcoming cabinet reshuffle, presidential legal adviser quit 23 April. President Morsi 10 April dropped charges against journalists for “insulting” him in March, including TV satirist Bassem Youssef. Sectarian violence between Copts and Muslims early April left 7 dead in Abbesaya and Al-Khasous north of Cairo. Reports of violence in Sinai mid-April prompted govt to increase security; Salafi militants in Sinai 17 April fired rockets on Eilat in Israel, no casualties. Security forces reported they dismantled Israeli spy network in northern Sinai. IMF loan negotiations ended 16 April without agreement; Libya, Qatar and Turkey offered financial assistance, Iraq, Libya and Qatar low-cost energy.

Syria

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Opposition further consolidated foothold in south with seizure of military base near Daraa 3 April, while regime forces mounted successful counter-attacks in Damascus, Homs, 14 April broke 6-month rebel siege of Wadi al-Deif and Hamidiya military compounds outside Maarat al-Numan in north. Fighting intensified in western city Al-Qusayr; Hizbollah fighters from Lebanon reported to be leading Al-Qusayr operation against rebels. Army 11 April launched retaliatory attacks on Sanamein and Ghabagheb villages in Deraa province, accused of harbouring deserters; dozens of civilians reported killed. Regime PM al-Halki survived bomb attack on his convoy in Damascus in which 6 died 29 April. 13 killed by car bomb in central Damascus 30 April. Reports emerged 22 April of several hundred civilians killed in alleged regime massacre SW of Damascus. Rebel armed group Jabhat al-Nusra 10 April refuted reports it had merged with al-Qaeda in Iraq but pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda central. UN set to investigate mounting allegations that regime is using chemical weapons. Rebels 22 April abducted 2 Aleppo archbishops. Opposition Syrian National Coalition (NC) PM Hitto 6 April begun talks to form interim govt; NC 22 April named George Sabra as interim leader. President Assad 16 April offered reduced prison sentences for some detained rebels. UN/Arab League envoy Brahimi 19 April deplored lack of cooperation from regime, urged UNSC action; denied rumours he plans to resign. 5 top UN humanitarian officials issued plea for international aid. U.S. 21 April said will double non-lethal aid for rebels to $250m; EU 22 April eased oil embargo for opposition, remains divided on arms ban.

Tunisia

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Political tensions eased somewhat as 3-day “national dialogue” talks between ruling An-Nahda and centrist opposition forces 18 April produced deal on 29 Dec 2013 election date; talks boycotted by main trade union UGTT and left-wing parties. An-Nahda Shura Council 29 April agreed on mixed parliamentary/presidential political system. Fears remain of increased political, economically-motivated violence ahead of polls amid frustrations over price increases, declining standards of living. Several days of violence mid-April in northern city Bizerte after soccer team barred from national championship, with riots taking on economic, anti-govt tone. Thousands protested in eastern city Sfax 21 April against An-Nahda govt, rising prices, alliance with Qatar. National Constituent Assembly (NCA) 23 April completed constitution draft. Some NCA members submitted motion to impeach President Marzouki 16 April, expected to survive challenge. Military court sentenced ousted president Ben Ali to life imprisonment in absentia. Govt and IMF finalised agreement on $1.75b loan. Govt released names of 5 suspects in Feb assassination of Chokri Belaid. Hundreds of Salafi youths reportedly arrested in crackdown on recruiting centres training them to fight with Syrian rebels.

Lebanon

  |  1 May 2013

Deteriorated

Lebanon further drawn into Syria conflict as Hizbollah fighters reportedly leading operation against Syrian rebel forces in western city Al-Qusayr near border with Lebanon; Syrian rebels fired rockets into border villages during month, killing 2. March 14 coalition and Progressive Socialist Party Druze leader Walid Jumblatt denounced Hizbollah’s involvement in Syria conflict; Hizbollah denies its members are fighting, claims they are protecting Lebanese against Syrian rebel attacks, 30 April said Syria’s “real friends” in region will not let it fall. Syrian jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra 24 April threatened to attack Beirut if President Suleiman does not stop Hizbollah involvement. Suleiman condemned Salafist Sheikhs Assir and al-Rafehi’s calls to send jihad fighters to help Syrian opposition; Free Syrian Army also rejected clerics’ call. EU 23 April agreed to provide $38.9m to help almost 450,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Parliament 6 April designated moderate March 14 figure Tammam Salam new PM; Salam holding consultations over distribution of ministerial portfolios. Parliamentary subcommittee discussing new electoral law suspended 24 April amid deadlock.

Western Sahara

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Polisario Front 17 April issued statement denying jihadis from Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) have entered Sahrawi refugee camps. Human Rights Watch 17 April called on UNSC to task UN with monitoring rights violations in Western Sahara and in refugee camps around Tindouf, Algeria; following U.S. demand that MINURSO mandate be expanded to carry out “monitoring and reporting of human rights”, Morocco called off military exercises with U.S., engaged in intense lobbying against UN mission’s rights mandate at UNSC; 23 April MINURSO resolution now encourages “enhanced efforts and progress on human rights”. 

Bahrain

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Ongoing National Dialogue overshadowed by growing street agitation in run-up to 21 April Formula 1 grand prix. Atmosphere in Dialogue sessions deteriorated as participants accused each other of stalling, traded personal attacks. MP Latifa al-Ghaoud accused opposition of leaking updates, receiving instructions from U.S.. Ahead of F1 race Human Rights Watch reported govt carried out house raids and round-ups in rebel villages near race circuit. Opposition called for mass demonstrations 12-20 April. Al-Wifaq sought to use protests to draw attention to its peaceful demands; Coalition of the Youth of the 14 February Revolution called for cancelling race, threatened further violence. Group claimed responsibility for burning 4 stolen cars, one in high-security financial district 15 April, hours after information minister claimed situation “very reassuring”; group’s first use of such tactics.

Jordan

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

As number of Syrian refugees in Jordan reached 450,000, police and refugees clashed in Zaatari camp 20 April over poor conditions. U.S. Sec Defence 17 April announced U.S. sending 200 army planners to Jordan to help prevent spillover of Syrian crisis. Authorities 13 April arrested 8 Jordanians attempting to join Syrian rebel fighters. 4 killed in clashes between students at university in southern city Maan.

Israel/Palestine

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Territories Political uncertainty in West Bank after Palestinian PM Fayyad 13 April resigned following months of tensions with PA President Abbas. Khaled Meshal re-elected as Hamas political bureau chief 2 April. Visiting U.S. Sec State Kerry 8 April pledged to come up with proposal to revive peace process. Jordan and Palestine 31 March signed agreement on Holy Sites in Jerusalem, reaffirming Jordan’s responsibility for administering them; followed Qatar’s announcement of $1bn fund for East Jerusalem. U.S. and Russia 23 April negotiated compromise between Israel and Palestinians in UNESCO, allowing cultural agency to renew involvement in Jerusalem’s Old City in exchange for postponement of 5 resolutions critical of Israel. Israeli airstrike in Gaza 30 April killed Haitham Mishal, militant allegedly involved in 17 April rocket attack on Eilat. Continued clashes between Palestinian protesters and Israeli soldiers over Israeli treatment of detainees; 2 Palestinian prisoners ended hunger strike after Israel agreed to release them early. Israeli Defence Minister 22 April confirmed Israel’s Jan airstrike in Syria targeted weapons convoy allegedly headed to Lebanon. Israeli army 25 April shot down drone off coast of Haifa, suspects Hizbollah; Hizbollah denied. Israel and Turkey 22 April discussed compensation deal for families of 2010 flotilla victims (see Turkey). PM Netanyahu denounced nuclear talks with Iran as delaying tactic on part of Tehran.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Tensions following 20 March statement by 37 Shiite leaders accusing govt of using arrest of 18 people on spying charges to stir sectarian tension, detract attention from other issues particularly Sunni demand for reform. Further reports of protests in eastern city Qatif 4 April, Qassim Province 27 April, over political prisoners. Prosecutor 27 March demanded death penalty by crucifixion for Nimr al-Nimr, radical Shiite cleric arrested July 2012 on charges including instigating unrest, “waging war on God”.

Algeria

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Mobilisation of special forces in south amid major spillover from Mali conflict; security forces 31 March deployed thousands of special forces, ground troops, helicopters to Bechar, Adrar, Tindouf, Ghardaïa, Laghouat and al-Bayadh; same day arrested high-ranking AQIM member suspected of planning suicide attacks on Ghardaïa. Tensions over economic situation in south continued: thousands of jobless youths demonstrated in Tamanrasset, Ghardaïa. President Bouteflika 9 April appointed commission of experts to revise constitution, promised during Jan 2011 upheaval. Govt 22 April refuted allegations Ansar Dine seeking refuge on Algerian territory. Bouteflika hospitalised in Paris 28 April following “mild stroke”. 3 guards killed in terrorist attack in Tipaza 28 April, 70km from Algiers.

Mauritania

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Following meeting with President Abdel Aziz, French FM 15 April announced Mauritania will contribute troops to UN force in Mali, possibly 1,800 soldiers. National Pact for Development and Democracy, Movement for Refoundation and Democratic Renewal parties 21 April left presidential coalition CPM to join opposition. Chairman of opposition coalition Coordination of Democratic Opposition (COD) Mohamed Jamil Mansour 5 April said COD rejects any electoral process which is not result of national consensus, reiterated demand that Abdel Aziz cede power. Opposition MPs 23 April established commission to investigate allegations of drug trafficking and illegal business deals involving Abdel Aziz

Yemen

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

In far-reaching military shake-up President Hadi mid-April removed Ahmed Ali Saleh, son of former president Saleh and commander of Republican Guards, and Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, commander of First Armoured Division, appointed leaders for 7 regional commands; several formerly powerful commanders also exiled to military-attaché positions outside country, including 2 nephews of Saleh. National dialogue continued without major setbacks. Court 27 April ordered investigation into March 2011 massacre, including role of Saleh and aides. Separatist sentiment in South high: unrest continued in major southern cities including Aden, Mukullah. Sporadic attacks against state security personnel continued: security officer killed 13 April in Hadhramawt province; intelligence officer shot dead 19 April in Mukallah; military intelligence chief assassinated 27 April in Hadrmout. 5 soldiers, 2 militants killed 27 April in attack on military checkpoint in Radda. 2 suspected U.S. drone strikes 17 April killed at least 5 suspected militants; drone strike 21 April killed 2 militants in Wadi Abida, Marib province. Saboteurs 8, 30 April sabotaged main oil pipeline in Marib province. Court 25 April sentenced 11 al-Qaeda militants to up to 10 years’ prison.

Libya

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Car bomb exploded outside French embassy in Tripoli 22 April, injuring 5 and sparking fears of further attacks in capital. Confrontations between govt and armed groups continued: gunmen 1 April stormed Tripoli’s main Jadaida Prison, day after over 100 brigade members stormed Justice Ministry following order to transfer all detention centres staffed by brigades to govt control. Principal advisor to PM Zeidan, abducted 31 March by armed men, released 9 April; National Congress 9 April passed law ciminalising abductions and torture in effort to hold armed groups accountable. Gunmen late April surrounded foreign and justice ministries, attempt to storm interior ministry failed; said will lift blockade when govt adopts Political Isolation Bill banning Qadhafi-era officials from holding govt positions. PM Zeidan 17 April announced plans to create separate “National Guard” manned exclusively by members of revolutionary brigades as part of efforts to integrate armed groups into state security forces. Authorities 13 April said 20 arrested following attack on police compound in Sabha, south. Police convoy ambushed by gunmen in Tripoli suburb 18 April, 1 killed. National Congress 10 April voted to hold national elections for Constituent Assembly.

Iran

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

P5+1 nuclear talks in Kazakhstan 5-6 April failed to achieve breakthrough, parties agreed to disband meeting, reconsider positions. U.S. Sec State Kerry said talks on nuclear program “cannot last forever”. President Ahmadinejad 9 April unveiled 2 new uranium mining facilities declaring “mastery over the entire nuclear fuel cycle”. Iranian ambassador to IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh 23 April said Iran would be “reliable partner” in Middle East if Western countries took “more cooperative approach” in nuclear talks. Former nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani, considered pragmatist, 11 April announced he will run for president in June elections. 6.1 magnitude earthquake hit SE 9 April, Gulf Cooperation Council called for inspections to nearby Bushehr nuclear plant, Iran media reported plant unaffected. Israeli Minister of Strategic and Intelligence Affairs 18 April said international community should issue deadline, timetable or military threat for Iran. U.S. Sec Defence 21 April signed arms deal with Israel, said agreement sends “clear signal to Iran that military action remains an option”. U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee 17 April passed bill supporting possible Israeli strike on Iran.

Iran

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Following late Feb talks with Iran, P5+1 arms control experts met in Istanbul 18 March to draft proposal detailing possibility of relieving sanctions in exchange for Iran suspending some nuclear activities, to be presented to 5-6 April meeting in Kazakhstan. Russian Deputy FM Sergei Ryabkov 21 March said P5+1 talks are “real progress” but “not sufficient to talk of irreversible trend”. U.S. President Obama 15 March declared Iran is “1 year from developing nuclear weapons”, U.S. will first pursue diplomatic means to prevent Iran from developing nuclear arsenal but “all options are on the table”. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 21 March said Iran will “destroy Israeli cities if attacked”. NATO cyber warfare centre 24 March declared U.S.-Israel 2009 cyber attack on Iran an illegal act of force. International Energy Agency 19 March reported Iran’s crude oil production capacity significantly reduced due to sanctions.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Police 1 March arrested 176 in Buraida, Qassim province after another protest over prisoners’ incarceration without charge or trial; 5 March freed 109 protesters. Security forces mid-month arrested 18 Shiites, including an Iranian and a Lebanese citizen, accused of spying.

Yemen

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

National Dialogue Conference tasked with drafting new constitution and preparing for Feb 2014 elections opened 18 March in Sanaa after numerous delays; conference attended by President Hadi, 565 delegates. Thousands of southern separatists protested in Aden and Hadramout, rejecting dialogue and calling for immediate secession. Yemeni Nobel peace laureate Tawakkul Karman boycotted dialogue in protest over failure to restructure army, former president Saleh’s continued political influence and marginalisation of youth, civil society and women. Gunmen 23 March shot dead 3 in failed attempt to assassinate Abdo Abu Ras, Houthis’ representative at negotiations. State’s Land Real Estate Chair Abdullah al-Fadhali escaped 25 March assassination attempt. 5 killed 21 Mar in pro-govt militia attack on al Qaeda-linked Islamist militants in Abyan province. Pro-govt fighters 24 March recaptured Batis town, Abyan province, after 3 days’ fighting that left 6 militants, 3 pro-govt militiamen dead. Suicide bomber 4 March killed at least 12, wounded 15 in attack on pro-govt militia office in Lawdar, Abyan province. Main oil pipeline in central Maarib province sabotaged 6 March.

Egypt

  |  1 Apr 2013

Deteriorated

Amid ongoing stalemate between president and opposition, clashes between police and protestors continued; renewed violence outside Muslim Brotherhood (MB) Cairo HQ 22 March injured over 100; violent protests against MB 23-24 March. President Morsi 24 March warned he would take “necessary measures” to “protect the nation”; prosecutor general 25 March ordered arrest of several activists. Several killed, hundreds injured 3 March when clashes broke out in Port Said following transfer of detainees accused of involvement in 2012 Port Said soccer riot. Port Said court 9 March acquitted 28 defendants, sentenced 5 to life in prison and 21 to death for role in soccer riot deaths; only 2 police officers found guilty. Presidential spokesperson 14 March said families of those killed in recent Port Said violence would be compensated. Increasing demonstrations motivated by shortages, inflation, price increases. Month also saw unprecedented nationwide strikes by police and security forces; demands included dismissal of Interior Minister, separation of police from political conflicts. 6 March court ruling on electoral law technicality postponed parliamentary elections scheduled for 22 April. Sinai security forces late month reportedly arrested 25 Hamas and Al-Qaida militants attempting to cross to Nile Delta, found weapons cache in El-Arish.

Algeria

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Authorities early-month said roughly 400 armed al-Qaeda militants still active in Kabylie region; army reportedly killed 5 Islamists in Kabylie raid late March. Security forces 8 March killed 2 suspected terrorists near Constantine; 9 March dismantled al-Qaeda cell in Bordj Badji town; 12 March dismantled kidnapping network in Boumerdes; 5 March forcibly dispersed youth demonstration in Ghardaia. Alliance for Green Algeria (MSP, El Islah and Ennahda) 8 March called on govt to deepen investigation into financial and land tenure scandals.

Bahrain

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Amid ongoing violence, national dialogue continued. Over a month into process, parties yet to set agenda despite 9 rounds of talks, sides blame each other for being uncooperative; tenth session began 31 March. King Hamad 11 March appointed Crown Prince Sheikh Salman, considered reformist, as vice-PM. Clashes between opposition forces and police in Manama 14, 29 March left several injured on both sides. Court sentenced 17 Shiites to 15 years’ jail for role in April 2012 ambush in Eker. 2 policemen sentenced to 10 years’ jail for torturing protester to death Feb 2011. Court of Appeals sentenced activist Zainab al-Khawaja to 3 months’ prison for “insulting and humiliating a public employee.” Court of Appeals 28 March acquitted 21 medics accused of supporting 2011 protests.

Israel/Palestine

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

New Israeli govt sworn in 18 March after 5-party coalition deal agreed 15 March; new coalition includes PM Netanyahu’s Likud-Beitenu right-wing alliance, new centrist Yesh Atid party, peace-process focused Hatnua party and national religious Jewish Home party; excludes ultra-Orthodox parties. U.S. President Obama 20-22 March visited Israel and WB, discussed nuclear Iran, Syria and Palestinian diplomatic process; WB youth activists protested visit, criticized “Zionist” keynote speech. Demonstrations in solidarity with Palestinian prisoners continued in WB into beginning March, leading to several clashes with Israeli forces; military raids, incursions, settler-related violence continued throughout month. Israel 25 March announced resumption of regular tax transfers suspended last year after Palestinians gained UN non-member observer status. Netanyahu 22 March apologized to Turkey for 2010 Gaza flotilla deaths (see Turkey).

Jordan

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

U.S. President Obama 22 March met King Abdullah II in Amman, discussed Syria and Israel/Palestine conflict; Obama pledged $200 million in aid for Syrian refugees. Jordan 25 March closed border with Syria due to clashes in area.

Iraq

  |  1 Apr 2013

Deteriorated

Political crisis continued, with signs of increasing sectarianism: parliament 7 March passed 2013 budget law relying exclusively on votes from Shia political blocs; Kurdish MPs boycotted vote in protest at amount allotted to pay oil companies operating in autonomous north. Council of Ministers 20 March announced elections in Anbar and Nineveh provinces, set for 20 April, to be postponed by up to 6 months due to violence, threats to election workers. Hardline security response to ongoing Sunni protests: security forces 8 March fired on stone-throwing Sunni demonstrators in Mosul, killing 2. Finance Minister Rafie al-Issawi resigned his post, as did Agriculture Minister Ezz al-Din al-Dawla, in solidarity with protesters. Series of car bombs and suicide blasts 19 March killed 50, wounded 160 on 10th anniversary of U.S.-led invasion. String of attacks 24 March left at least 5 dead in Mosul; candidate in provincial elections assassinated in Baghdad. 25 killed, 50 injured 14 March in series of attacks on govt buildings in Baghdad; al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) claimed responsibility. 4 killed in series of attacks near Baghdad 27 March; over 20 reported killed, dozens injured in series of attacks against Shiite mosques in Baghdad 29 March. Armed group 6 March ambushed Syrian soldiers attempting to reenter Syria with the Iraqi army’s help, killing 51 Syrian soldiers and 9 Iraqis; ISI claimed responsibility.

Mauritania

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

President Abdelaziz 4 March said country ready to join UN peacekeeping force in Mali “if situation improves”; Nigerien President Issoufou, Malian interim president Traoré and Moroccan FM Saad Eddine El Othmani visited early month to discuss Mali crisis. AQIM said it executed French hostage captured in 2011. Electoral Commission 28 Feb announced legislative and municipal elections, initially scheduled in 2011, now due Sept-Oct 2013. Initiative for Abolitionist Resurgence 10 March denounced arrests of 9 of its members in Kaedi.

Lebanon

  |  1 Apr 2013

Deteriorated

Month saw further deterioration, with tensions escalating on several fronts and political uncertainty as govt collapsed 22 March after PM Mikati resigned following standoff with Hizbollah over extending Security Forces chief Ashraf Rifi’s mandate. Mikati’s resignation sparked further clashes between Sunni and Alawite militants in northern town Tripoli, killing 12 people 22-24 March. Ongoing tensions in southern town Saida between Salafist Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir and Shiite Hizbollah supporters. Regular cross-border shelling by Syria continued: Syrian Foreign Ministry mid-month threatened to strike rebels sheltering in Lebanon; several northern Lebanese border villages fired on by Syria 15, 31 March; Syrian regime for first time launched airstrikes 18 March targeting Arsal, eastern Lebanon. U.S. described strikes as “significant escalation in the violations of Lebanese sovereignty” by Damascus. March 14 coalition mid-month called for deployment of army and UN troops along border. UNSC 14 March issued statement of concern over repeated incidents of Lebanese-Syrian cross-border fire, incursions, abductions, arms trafficking. 3 Sunni clerics attacked 17 March in 2 incidents in predominantly Shiite Beirut neighbourhood sparking demonstrations.

Libya

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Series of violent interventions related to proposed “political exclusion” law barring Qadhafi-era officials from service caused political paralysis, bringing work of General National Congress (GNC) to a temporary standstill. Members of govt-affiliated brigade, purportedly defending war-wounded protestors, 3 March ransacked main GNC hall; armed men supporting political isolation law next day stormed GNC members in makeshift hall, and ordered them to approve bill; lawmakers allowed to leave building after 12-hour siege, but GNC president Magharief’s car shot at. Lawmakers suspended GNC mid-March due to threats. Chair of Human Rights and Civil Society Committee Hassan al-Amin 4 March announced resignation citing death threats. Govt-affiliated militia late Feb rounded up some 50 Egyptian Copts, accused them of proselytizing; further attacks on Copts reported. UNSC 14 March decided to not fully lift arms embargo, expressed concern over arms flowing from Libya into neighboring countries and over thousands of detainees held by militias. Unidentified armed men 30 March reportedly attacked military air base near Sabha, killing 3 soldiers.

Tunisia

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Political crisis partially attenuated as newly-appointed An-Nahda PM Ali Larayedh 8 Mar unveiled new govt; includes previous coalition partners Ettakatol and Congress for the Republic (CPR). Key ministries ceded to independents: career diplomat Othman Jarandi named FM, Lotfi Ben Jedou interior minister, Rachid Sabbagh defence minister, Nadhir Ben Ammou justice minister. 80 National Constituent Assembly representatives 15 March adopted end-of-April deadline for completing draft of new constitution, calling for presidential and legislative elections before end-2013. Social and political tensions remained high following Feb assassination of leading opposition figure Chokri Belaid; thousands demonstrated in Tunis 16 March, demanded end to An-Nahda govt. Concern continued to grow over deteriorating purchasing power and new round of economically-motivated self-immolation suicides.

Syria

  |  1 Apr 2013

Deteriorated

First credible reports emerged of chemical weapons use: govt and rebels accused each other of firing a rocket loaded with chemical agents near Aleppo 19 March; opposition 25 March said govt killed 2, wounded 23 in chemical missile attack on Adra, near Damascus. 49 killed, including key pro-regime cleric, in attack on Damascus mosque 21 March; 20 killed in mortar attack on Damascus University 28 March. President Assad 22 March vowed to “cleanse” Syria of extremism. Rebel advance continued: rebels early March captured northern city Raqqa, their first entire provincial capital, began renewed push into Baba Amr, Homs. In Istanbul Syrian National Coalition (NC) 19 March elected Ghassan Hitto PM for rebel-held areas of Syria; NC leader Moaz al-Khatib resigned 24 March over “lack of help” from international community. At EU summit 15 March France and UK faced opposition to their proposal that EU arms embargo be lifted to allow arming of rebels. Rebel group “Martyrs of Yarmouk” 6 March captured 21 Filipino UN peacekeepers monitoring 1973 Israel-Syria armistice line in Golan, released 9 March. UN 25 March announced temporary withdrawal of some staff from Damascus citing insecurity. Syrian opposition opened embassy in Qatar 27 March, day after assuming Syrian seat at Arab League summit.

Western Sahara

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

French media 4 March reported Polisario Front fighters captured in Mali following battle with AQIM “emir” Abou Zeid. UN SGSR Ross 20 March visited Western Sahara, hoping to “end current impasse”. Polisario leader Mohamed Abdelaziz 16 March said Saharawi people will continue peaceful fight for independence, resume armed struggle “if necessary”.

Mauritania

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Court 11 Feb charged 2 suspected AQIM members with planning to fight in Mali. Rights groups issued communiqué expressing concern at spread of extremist teachings. Army 18 Feb began joint military exercise Flintlock-2013, led by AFRICOM and involving 19 other countries including U.S., France, Canada. Opposition Union des Forces de Progrès early-month called for formation of national unity govt as precondition for participation in next elections, and reform of electoral commission.

Egypt

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

President Morsi 21 Feb announced 4-stage parliamentary election starting 27 April, later moved to 22 April to avoid clash with Easter; main opposition coalition National Salvation Front (NSF) 26 Feb announced boycott over transparency concerns. Morsi called for 26 Feb live-broadcast national dialogue session to discuss election fairness guarantees; NSF, Christian representatives did not attend. Govt approved elections monitoring by several NGOs and international organisations. Latest wave of unrest which began 24 Jan continued into Feb in cities and governorates across Egypt, fuelled by anger at police brutality in response to rioting. Protesters outside presidential palace clashed with police 1 Feb; 2 killed. Campaign of civil disobedience initiated 17 Feb in Port Said as protesters demanded official accountability for over 40 protester deaths in Jan violence; over a week of protests, strikes and blockades of govt buildings followed. In attempt to quell anger Morsi 19 Feb agreed to judicial investigation, allocated new funds to area. Civil disobedience campaigns spread to other governorates including Ismailia, Kafr al-Sheikh.

Bahrain

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Govt, opposition participated in 5 “National Consensus Dialogue” sessions aimed at ending political deadlock; scheduled 13 Feb session suspended due to protests. Late-month reports of disagreements when opposition insisted that representatives of king should join talks; demand rejected by govt. As demonstrations intensified in run-up to 2-year anniversary of 14 February uprising, teenage protester and security official reported killed 14 Feb in clashes west of Manama, further protestor later died from injuries; protesters clashed with police following teenager’s funeral 16 Feb. 8 militants with alleged links to Iran, Iraq, Lebanon reported arrested mid-Feb; govt accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guard of establishing terror cell. Court sentenced policeman to 7 years’ jail over fatal shootings of protesters during 2011 uprising, acquitted 4 others. Human Rights Watch said rulers had made no progress on promised reforms, official impunity continues, activists remain imprisoned.

Western Sahara

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

UNHCHR and rights organisations 19 Feb expressed concern about fairness of trial of Sahrawis who participated in riots at Gdeim Izik camp in 2010; after 2 years of pre-trial detention, military court handed out prison terms for 24 detainees ranging from time served to life in prison. Prisoners reiterated claim they were tortured in prison; Amnesty International called for retrial, investigation of torture allegations.

Lebanon

  |  1 Mar 2013

Deteriorated

Month saw heightened political tensions as well as increased spillover from Syrian conflict. Joint parliamentary committees 19 Feb endorsed controversial “Orthodox Gathering” electoral law proposal requiring each sect to elect own representatives through proportional representation, following walk-out by opposing parties, however Interior Minister Marwan Charbel same day ruled out holding June parliamentary elections without consensus on new electoral law. Debate continued over other proposals; number of accusations of parties intending to delay elections. Official 17 Feb reported 3 Hizbollah fighters killed in clashes with Syrian rebels in al-Qusayr, Syria, near border; FSA 19 Feb threatened retaliation against Hizbollah. Heavy shelling, gunfire over border from Syria 23-24 Feb killed 4 in north of Lebanon; refugee influx from Syria continued to increase; UN expressed renewed concern that Lebanon could be drawn into Syria’s civil war. 2 soldiers and detained local fugitive killed 1 Feb in Arsal in disputed incident sparking officials’ commendation and number of pro- and anti-army protests; military prosecutor 11 Feb charged 34 locals in connection with incident. 3 soldiers injured 15 Feb in protests against subsequent heightened security measures in Arsal and arrest of 11 local men. Bulgaria 5 Feb implicated Hizbollah in July 2012 bombing of tourist bus in Burgas that killed 5 Israelis, 1 Bulgarian; led to renewed calls for EU to blacklist group.

Saudi Arabia

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Security forces 9 Feb arrested several women and children following demonstrations in Riyadh and Buraidah calling for release of prisoners detained without charge. U.S. media 6 March reported CIA use of Saudi Arabian airbase for Yemen drone strikes. Police reported 3 incidents 23 Feb of unknown gunmen opening fire at prison and police targets in Shiite-populated Eastern Province.

Algeria

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Security forces 6 Feb repelled attempt to overrun Khenchela garrison by 50 suspected Islamists, killing at least 2; 8 Feb arrested 2 AQIM would-be suicide bombers in Tinzawaten; 10 Feb arrested 10 suspected members of arms and ammunition trafficking network in El Bayadh; 11 Feb killed 2 suspected terrorists in Tizi Ouzou; 16 Feb killed 4 terrorists on border with Mali; 23 Feb killed 4 in Boukaal Medajadji and 8 in Boumerdès, including AQIM emir for Bordj Menaïel town. Interior Ministry mid-month banned Salafi Free Awakening Front party from holding founding convention. Security forces increased positions on border with Mali. 16 protesters arrested in Warqla province 14 Feb.

Israel/Palestine

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Widespread demonstrations in OPT supporting hunger-striking Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails escalated significantly following 23 Feb death of prisoner in unclear circumstances; hundreds injured in clashes with security forces, 2 teenagers critically injured by live fire. PA minister 24 Feb said autopsy revealed prisoner’s death caused by torture; UN called for investigation into death. Rocket fired at southern Israel 26 Feb broke 3-month ceasefire, no injuries: Fatah-affiliated Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claimed responsibility. Military raids, clashes, settler-related violence, demolitions in WB continued. Likud-Beiteinu faction 19 Feb made first official coalition agreement with centrist Hatnua party; Hatnua leader Tzipi Livni to be justice minister and negotiator in any future peace talks with Palestinians under PM Netanyahu’s supervision. Palestinian factions 9-10 Feb held reconciliation talks in Cairo, committed to consultations on formation of interim govt; Hamas 24 Feb asked to delay next reconciliation meeting. Central Elections Commission 11 Feb began long-delayed updating of voter rolls in Gaza Strip.

Jordan

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Number of Syrian refugees entering Jordan reportedly reached 400,000; violence erupted 24-25 Feb in Zaatari camp over poor conditions. In first protests since 23 Jan parliamentary election, hundreds of opposition Muslim Brotherhood supporters demonstrated in Amman 22 Feb to demand faster political reform; opposition protests also held throughout country. Royal Court Chief Fayez Tarawneh 20 Feb continued consultations with parliament to choose PM.

Yemen

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged Risk Alert

Tensions between separatists and security forces, Islamist party Islah reached highest levels since early 2012, sparking fears of further violence. At least 6 killed, 49 wounded 21 and 23 Feb in clashes between separatist protesters and security forces in South marking 1-year anniversary of President Hadi’s election. UNSC 15 Feb expressed concern former president Saleh and separatist leader Ali Salim al-Bid undermining democratic transition, warned of further measures against spoilers including sanctions. At rally in Sanaa 27 Feb former president Saleh called for national reconciliation. President Hadi 6 Feb announced 18 March date for start of drafting new constitution and national dialogue. Govt 2 Feb confirmed ship intercepted 23 Jan was Iranian ship smuggling weapons; Iran denied connection. Military 2 Feb killed 10 suspected militants in air strikes, drove group of al-Qaeda-linked insurgents from mountain hideout in South. Security chief Abdulwahab al-Wali 23 Feb survived assassination attempt in South. Main oil pipeline in central Maarib province sabotaged 8 Feb.

Libya

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Thousands took to streets 17 Feb to mark 2nd anniversary of revolution. Civil society organisations in Benghazi, supported by some armed groups, 15 Feb protested against govt over perceived failure to fulfil goals of revolution. Leaders of groups seeking autonomy for east cancelled planned 15 Feb protest rally citing feared violence. Congress 6 Feb approved direct election to constitution-drafting committee; committee 14 Feb unveiled draft “political isolation law”, which proposes to bar up to 36 categories of civil servants from senior govt, administrative positions for next 10 years. 4 Christian missionaries arrested in Benghazi for proselytising. FM Abdelaziz called for Western and Arab allies to help secure borders to prevent Islamist rebels influx from Mali. PM Zeidan denied reports Qadhafi-era PM Mahmudi tortured in jail.

Iraq

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

Protests against PM al-Maliki continued: tens of thousands of Sunni protesters 1 Feb marched throughout country, thousands of Sunnis protested 22 Feb in Ramadi, Baghdad, Mosul, Fallujah. Suicide bombers 6 Feb killed Iraqi army intelligence officer Awni Ali and 2 bodyguards in Tal Afar, 11 Feb killed at least 8 at military checkpoint in Mosul, 3 Feb killed at least 33 outside police HQ in Kirkuk, 5 Feb killed at least 3 at Taji checkpoint, 4 Feb infiltrated meeting of Sahwa tribal fighters in Taji and killed at least 22. Masked gunmen wearing Iraqi army uniforms 22 Feb shot dead 7 members of govt-backed militia Sahwa near Tuz Khurmato. Car bombs 8 Feb throughout country killed at least 34. Car bombs across Baghdad 17 Feb killed 28; al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq claimed responsibility. Car bomb 28 Feb killed several in Baghdad Shia neighbourhood. Gunman 11 Feb killed bodyguard of Kurdish member of Mosul provincial council and 3 others. Dispute between Baghdad govt and autonomous Kurdish region over oil rights delayed attempts to pass draft legislation for budget. Attack 9 Feb on Iranian dissident group Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) residents at former U.S. base killed at least 5, wounded over 25. Oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi 25 Feb said Turkey rejected possibility of extending oil, gas export pipelines from Kurdistan region through Turkey without Baghdad govt’s approval.

Syria

  |  1 Mar 2013

Deteriorated

Month saw violence on part of regime further escalating, with use of Scud missiles, as UN 27 Feb warned of severe rise in refugees and a humanitarian situation “dramatic beyond description”. Rebels continue to consolidate hold on North and East, made several strategic gains. Renewed clashes reported in Aleppo end Feb; Human Rights Watch reported govt ballistic missile strikes in civilian areas killed over 100. Rebels launched new offensive on regime stronghold Damascus. Car bomb 21 Feb killed dozens, injured over 200 in central Damascus near ruling Ba’ath party HQ. Reports emerged of worsening maltreatment and torture of prisoners in govt jails. UN/Arab League Envoy Brahimi 17 Feb, Syrian National Coalition (NC) 22 Feb announced support for NC leader Mouaz Khatib’s Jan initiative for conditional talks with regime; Brahimi called for talks between opposition and “acceptable delegation” from govt; Syrian FM Walid al-Moualem 25 Feb said regime is prepared to talk to armed opposition. EU 19 Feb renewed arms embargo on Syria for further 3 months with amendment allowing more non-lethal and technical support for civilian protection. NC 23 Feb threatened to boycott 28 Feb “Friends of Syria” meeting with Western backers due to lack of international condemnation following govt’s bombardment of Aleppo; rescinded after condemnations issued, Western states promised increased non-lethal aid. NC 22 Feb announced it would establish govt to run rebel “liberated” areas of country. Brahimi’s contract extended to end-2013.

Tunisia

  |  1 Mar 2013

Deteriorated

6 Feb assassination of popular opposition politician Chokri Belaïd, member of Popular Front, prompted worst political and constitutional crisis since revolution, deepening polarisation between Islamists and secularists. Belaïd killing triggered mass protests throughout country, with clashes with police, demolition of police stations and Islamist party HQs. Over 150,000 gathered for Belaïd’s funeral 8 Feb; largest trade union same day called general strike in protest at murder. PM Jebali 6 Feb announced dissolution of govt in response to killing, intention to establish interim cabinet of technocrats to replace Islamist-led coalition. Popular Front same day announced withdrawal from National Constituent Assembly; Secular Congress for the Republic, led by President Marzouki, 10 Feb announced withdrawal from coalition govt to support PM Jebali’s attempt to form govt of technocrats, but quickly backed out of move. Jebali 19 Feb resigned following collapse of his plan for apolitical technocrat cabinet due largely to strong opposition from his own An-Nahda party. An-Nahda 22 Feb chose Ali Larayedh as new PM, who president tasked with forming new govt; thousands protested choice. An-Nahda party chief Ghannouchi 27 Feb said will allow independents to take over key “sovereign” ministries in next govt in concession to opposition. Govt 21 Feb announced arrest of Belaïd assassination suspects, later said killer identified. Ghannouchi said An-Nahda not behind Belaïd assassination; thousands marched 9 and 16 Feb in Tunis in support of An-Nahda and Islamist-led govt.

Iran

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

At first Iran-P5+1 talks in 8 months 26-27 Feb, negotiators offered Iran limited sanctions relief in exchange for Tehran curbing most sensitive aspects of nuclear activities; Iran said negotiations “turning point”; further talks scheduled. New U.S. sanctions took effect 6 Feb; next day Iran rejected U.S. offer of direct talks saying it would not negotiate under pressure of sanctions. Foreign Ministry 12 Feb said country ready for “comprehensive agreement” with IAEA including visit to Parchin military complex if nuclear rights recognised; IAEA-Iran talks 13 Feb failed again to reach deal. IAEA 21 Feb confirmed Iran had started to install new generation of centrifuges at Natanz enrichment plant; U.S. called it “yet another provocative step”. EU Court 5 Feb ruled sanctions on Iranian Bank Saderat should be lifted due to insufficient evidence bank involved in nuclear program. Currency reached all-time low, registering more than 21% drop in 2 weeks against US$. President Ahmadinejad 3 Feb accused parliament speaker Ali Larijani’s family of corruption; rival politicians 17 Feb apologised to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for public feud.

Algeria

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

AQIM splinter faction “Signatories in Blood” 16-20 Jan seized Tiguentourine gas plant near Ain Amenas, near Libyan border; at least 81 reportedly died in executions and multiple rescue attempts by security forces, official death toll 67. PM Sellal said attack coordinated by Canadian citizen, kidnappers from neighbouring states. Efforts to dislodge terrorist groups in Boumerdès-Tizi-Ouzou-Bouira triangle continued: security forces 31 Dec killed 6, including AQIM “financier” Izza Rezki alias Abou Djaffar, seized weapons cache in Keddara; 1 Jan killed 7 terrorists, reportedly part of El-Feth brigade, in Oued Bahara; 14 Jan killed 3 terrorists in Meskeline.

Tunisia

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Socio-economic protests in Ben Guerdane turned violent mid-Jan as demonstrators set fire to police station, cars; police used teargas to disperse crowd. Police officers 16 Jan repelled stone-throwing protesters in Kef with tear gas. Roughly 8,000 protested outside Interior Ministry 14 Jan against Islamist-led govt on 2-year anniversary of former president Ben Ali’s overthrow. 2 Muslim shrines destroyed 10, 12 Jan in Tunis suburbs, attacks blamed on hardline Salafists. Authorities 17 Jan said “terrorist” group arrested, large arms cache seized in southern town Medenin. Govt 29 Jan sent special combat units to borders with Algeria, Libya to protect oil and gas installations against potential attacks from Islamist militants. Thousands of policemen protested 31 Jan demanding better pay, equipment, protection.

Israel/Palestine

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

22 Jan Knesset elections saw Netanyahu-Lieberman’s right-wing Likud-Beiteinu alliance win with 31 seats; new centrist party Yesh Atid, led by TV personality Yair Lapid, came second with 19; coalition talks to form new govt underway. Israel 29 Jan became first nation ever to skip UNHRC periodic review of its human rights record. UNHRC report 31 Jan urged Israel to halt settlement construction unconditionally, remove all Israeli settlers in OPT. Fatah-Hamas reconciliation continued: Fatah 4 Jan staged first permitted mass rally in Gaza Strip since 2007; Fatah and Hamas leaders 9 Jan held first face-to-face meeting in over a year, pledged to implement stalled May 2011 reconciliation accord. PA FM Malki 23 Jan said Palestine would appeal to ICC if Israel settlement plans in occupied WB proceed. Month saw continued settler-related violence and Israeli military raids, arrests, clashes and shootings in WB. EU, UN 30 Jan expressed concern about Israel’s use of lethal force against Palestinians following rise in fatal shootings with several killed in Jan in WB and Gaza Strip. Several incidents of Israeli naval forces firing at Palestinian fishing boats within new 6 nautical mile limit. Surge in Israeli demolitions, including over 100 Palestinian-owned structures in Area C, displacing around 180. PA budget crisis continued: partially paid, late WB public sector salaries prompted more strikes, sit-ins. Israeli airstrike 30 Jan in Syria (see Syria). Israel 2 Jan completed main segment of border fence with Egypt.

Lebanon

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Parliamentary subcommittee 8 Jan resumed talks over new electoral law for June parliamentary polls; 30 Jan deadline extended 15 days to discuss hybrid proposal combining proportional and majority systems. Rival Christian parties 13 Jan proposed joint “Orthodox Gathering” draft electoral law. Sunni-dominated Future Current leader Saad Hariri 31 Jan proposed “small district” law and creation of a Senate. Armed protestors in Tripoli 18 Jan assaulted March 8 coalition minister Faisal Karami’s convoy, 11 injured. Palestinian refugees displaced from Syria held sit-ins at Beddawi refugee camp protesting shortages in assistance: PM Mikati 26 Jan said situation had “reached dangerous levels”. 1 killed 3 Jan in armed clash in Sidon between Hizbollah-affiliated Resistance Companies and Popular Nasserite Organisation. Car bomb 29 Jan injured 2 in Beirut. Supporters of Salafi Sheik Ahmed Assir 13 Jan protested in Sidon against Hizbollah weapons, alliance with Iran. Lebanon accused Israel of violating its airspace several times during month, including with 12 warplanes 22-23 Jan.

Yemen

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

U.S. drone strikes continued, killing at least 23 suspected al-Qaeda militants. Second-in-command of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Said al-Shehri confirmed dead late Jan. Govt 27 Jan launched major military offensive against AQAP militants in Baydah accused of holding Finnish couple and Austrian man hostage; next day AQAP retaliated with suicide bombing killing at least 11 soldiers at military checkpoint, and attack on separate checkpoint killing 3 soldiers, both in Baydah. Hundreds of AQAP militants arrived next day to give support; govt suspended military operation while tribal leaders attempted to secure release. Tribal leader Al Mullah Zabahra, known for mediating between govt and al-Qaeda, killed 10 Jan at checkpoint in Abyan province. Deputy security chief of Dhamar province, Abdulwahab al-Mushki, killed 16 Jan by gunmen. 2 al-Qaeda militants arrested 14 Jan near Sanaa, security forces seized suicide bomb vests, assassination manuals, lists of targets. Main oil pipeline in central Maarib province sabotaged 10, 26 Jan by armed tribesmen. Southern movement Harak organised festival of reconciliation and tolerance to mark anniversary of 1986 civil war; over 100,000 gathered in Aden. President Hadi 7 Jan formed land, employment committees for southern governorates. UNSC envoys 27 Jan arrived in Yemen to show support for U.S.-backed power transfer deal. Ship carrying large weapons cache intercepted 23 Jan, suspected weapons smuggled from Iran for Yemen insurgents. 2 militants, 5 soldiers killed 31 Jan during army raid on mountainous area where al-Qaeda-linked Ansar al-Sharia have been taking refuge since being driven out of Jaar and Zinjibar last year.

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CrisisWatch N°114

Read the latest edition of CrisisWatch in full here.