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CrisisWatch Database

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265 results found
Items 1 - 50 of 265 First   Previous   Next   Last

Zimbabwe

  |  30 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Purges within ruling ZANU-PF party continued with 3 April expulsion of former VP and Second Secretary Joyce Mujuru. Former ZANU-PF heavyweights Rugare Gumbo and Didymus Mutasa joined Mujuru 7 April to launch new party, “ZANU People First”, plans to compete against ZANU-PF in 10 June by-elections and 2018 national elections. Opposition MDC 10 April announced boycott of by-elections, demanded implementation of electoral reforms.

Madagascar

  |  30 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Former President Ravalomanana 14 April withdrew from Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM)-led reconciliation talks after being prevented from speaking at 11 April rally due to house arrest; 24 April announced return to talks following discussions with FFKM leaders. Talks resumed 28 April, only President Rajaonarimampianina and former Presidents Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana attended.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

President Mugabe faced series of court challenges following months-long ZANU-PF purges. Expelled party members Ruagare Gumbo and Didymus Mutasa 2 March issued challenge to High Court seeking to strike down Mugabe’s reforms from Dec party congress; Mutasa and former minister Temba Mliswa 9 March brought challenge to Constitutional Court over their 18 Feb expulsion from National Assembly. Mugabe 7 March threatened to discredit judge handling Mutasa and Gumbo case, said courts have no right to interfere in internal party matters. ZANU-PF 29 March won by-elections in Mt Darwin West and Chirumanzu-Zibagwe, latter won by VP Mnangagwa’s wife Auxilia. National Assembly speaker Jacob Mudenda and Senate President Edna Madzongwe 18 March expelled fourteen MPs of MDC-R (party formed following 2014 split with opposition MDC-T) from parliament; Mugabe 28 March announced by-elections mid-June to fill vacant seats. Abduction of activist Itai Dzamara 9 March, reportedly by security forces, sparked protests and violent response by security forces.

Madagascar

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM)-led reconciliation talks held 20 March between former leaders Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka, and President Rajaonarimampianina; former coup leader Rajoelina and former President Zafy did not attend following their 19 Feb withdrawal from talks. Leaders present agreed to delay planned national reconciliation conference to 28 April. Opposition leader Alain Ramaroson arrested 28 March as security forces blocked planned protests in capital calling on govt to address living conditions, released 31 March.

Zimbabwe

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Tensions within ruling ZANU-PF remained high amid continued decimation of former VP Mujuru’s faction. Mujuru allies Ray Kaukonde and Enock Porisingazi stripped of seats as chairs of Parliamentary Portfolios 12 Feb. Former ZANU-PF member Didymus Mutasa attacked in state media for declaring Dec party congress unconstitutional, former ZANU-PF provincial chairman Temba Mliswa arrested 1 Feb for illegal weapons possession; both expelled from ZANU-PF 18 Feb. EU mid-Feb committed €230mn for govt support.

Madagascar

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

High Constitutional Court 12 Feb upheld President Rajaonarimampianina’s 15 Jan appointment of PM Jean Ravelonarivo following legal challenge by former coup leader Rajoelina. Rajoelina and former President Zafy 19 Feb withdrew from Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM)-led reconciliation process; Rajoelina cited continued disagreement with PM appointment and lack of meaningful action toward reconciliation. FFKM 20 Feb insisted reconciliation process would continue with remaining former leaders and current president.

Zimbabwe

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Tensions persisted following President Mugabe’s early-Dec purges in ZANU-PF party, with rumours of assassination plots and attempts against senior party figures. Deputy Minister Simon Musanhu, ally of former VP Joyce Mujuru, died in mysterious circumstances 15 Jan. Didymus Mutasa, powerful figure in ZANU-PF removed in purge, returned early-Jan, issued statement declaring early Dec party congress unconstitutional; alleged Mugabe and First Lady intimidated members ahead of congress, preventing them from freely choosing their preferred party leaders. Confusion over land rights contributed to instability: heavily armed police and Central Intelligence Organisation agents 8 Jan evicted some 200 families from Arnold Farm in Mazowe, burning down houses, crops; rumours First Lady involved in “land grab” process. President Mugabe appointed AU chair 30 Jan.

Madagascar

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Govt and PM Kolo’s long-expected 13 Jan resignation catalysed by deadly protests over power shortages; President Rajaonarimampianina 15 Jan named former air force commander Jean Ravelonarivo new PM. Former coup leader Rajoelina 16 Jan issued court challenge, alleging appointment anti-constitutional. Second reconciliation meeting between current President and former presidents Zafy, Ratsiraka, Ravalomana and Rajoelina held 13 Jan, little progress.

Zimbabwe

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Tensions over President Mugabe’s succession within ruling ZANU-PF persisted. ZANU-PF 6 Dec approved constitutional amendments allowing Mugabe to hand-pick Politburo members. Mugabe 9 Dec demoted VP Joice Mujuru to ordinary party member, eight other ministers fired same day, accused of plotting to oust him; Mugabe 10 Dec named Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and diplomat Phelekezela Mphoko VPs of ZANU-PF. Ousted former members of ZANU-PF 18 Dec petitioned South African Development Community to intervene in power struggle within party.

Madagascar

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

President Rajaonarimampianina and former presidents Zafy, Ratsiraka, Ravalomanana and Rajoelina 19 Dec met for reconciliation talks led by Malagasy Christian Council of Churches (FFKM). Despite ongoing tensions, Ravalomanana allowed home under house arrest 24 Dec. Following talks president also pardoned three political prisoners 25 Dec. Next reconciliation meeting planned 13 Jan.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

ZANU-PF internal tensions over President Mugabe’s succession as party leader intensified. Mugabe 23 Nov changed ZANU-PF constitution, further centralised power in president’s hands; enabled him to select three highest office-bearers in party. First Lady Grace Mugabe 16 Nov accused VP Mujuru of plotting President’s assassination; Mujuru denied charge. Numerous Mujuru allies removed from national and provincial positions in possible attempt to weaken VP’s faction. Mujuru’s application to participate in Dec party congress rejected 26 Nov.

Madagascar

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Former presidents including Andry Rajoelina, Marc Ravalomanana, and current President Rajaonarimampianina agreed to national reconciliation following Ravalomanana’s controversial return to country last month; Ravalomanana remains in custody. President Rajaonarimampianina 20 Nov said he would take reconciliation lead; other parties disagreed. Process has been unable to secure input of Rajoelina, who mid-Nov said reconciliation must follow justice.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

ZANU-PF internal tensions over President Mugabe’s succession heightened ahead of Dec party congress as his wife Grace launched several attacks on contender VP Joice Mujuru, senior ZANU-PF members, military officials.

Madagascar

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Former President Ravalomanana “secretly” returned 12 Oct after five years exile, signalled intent to challenge legitimacy of President Rajaonarimampianina’s administration. AU, SADC condemned return as reckless, reiterated support for Rajaonarimampianina, reconciliation. Govt forces detained Ravalomanana, reportedly for own protection; crackdown on public demonstrations, police 18 Oct used tear gas to disperse pro-Ravalomanana.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Amid President Mugabe’s succession battle, army chief 15 Sept said army to stay above politics; ruling Zanu-PF, opposition MDC-T still divided. As economic downturn continued, Central Bank early Sept confirmed repayment of $180mn to China in 1st half of 2014 to keep credit line, 5 Sept issued $50mn bond to import coins; IMF 23 Sept announced country not entitled to debt relief.

Madagascar

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Electoral Commission 11 Sept postponed 2014 local elections citing “insufficient legal framework”, prompting civil society discontent. Three former ministers arrested early Sept for alleged corruption while in office. Several opposition parties 6 Sept signed coalition charter. 36 cattle rustlers killed mid-Sept in clashes with security forces and villagers in southern Amboasary district.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Sep 2014

Unchanged

Amid ruling Zanu-PF internal crisis, First Lady Grace Mugabe confirmed as party’s Womens’ League leader 15 Aug, joined politburo, could succeed husband in 2018. Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders 17 Aug met in Victoria Falls, appointed Mugabe as new chairman. Amid economic downturn, Mugabe 25-31 Aug visited China, 31 Aug said secured economic support from Beijing.

Madagascar

  |  1 Sep 2014

Unchanged

Tensions continued over former President Ravalomanana’s desire to return from exile and President Rajaonarimampianina’s refusal. After arrests of journalists late July, civil society organisations early Aug warned of new cyberlaw prohibiting insult and defamation of state representative. 15 killed in mid-Aug clashes between armed cattle rustlers and security forces in southern Amboasary district.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Ruling ZANU-PF infighting continued between VP Joice Mujuru and Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa; First Lady Grace Mugabe endorsed 28 July as next leader of party’s Women’s league prompting concerns she could succeed husband in 2018. Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, Environment Minister Saviour Kasukuwere questioned late July over unidentified anti-regime Facebook blogger. Transform Zimbabwe leader Jacob Ngarivhume 18 July denounced harassment and crackdown on opposition after being detained alongside 13 others 12 July for holding unauthorised public gatherings. Amid continued economic downturn and threats of street protests by civil society groups, IMF 8 July highlighted some progress in economic reforms, called for greater transparency in mining and diamond industries. Mugabe 2 July called for white farmers to leave country; Mnangagwa 10 July downplayed rant as “misunderstanding”.

Madagascar

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

PM Kolo 3 July declared 40% of budget lost to corruption, promised reforms. Reassembled Tiako I Madagasikara (TIM) opposition party pushed for return of former President Marc Ravalomanana; return reportedly opposed by President Hery Rajaonarimampianina. 2 journalists arrested 23 July for alleged defamation of minister, 50 journalists same day led protest in Antananarivo; journalists released 25 July.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jul 2014

Unchanged

Ruling ZANU-PF infighting continued as President Mugabe’s health deteriorates: Mugabe 6 June accused Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo of using state media to divide and destabilise govt; police 19 June arrested editor of state-owned Sunday Mail, court 21 June charged him with subversion and undermining Mugabe’s authority. Continued divisions in opposition MDC-T: Sec Gen Tendai Biti’s “Renewal Team” 29 June “expelled” leader Morgan Tsvangirai for alleged misconduct.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jul 2014

Unchanged

Inter-communal violence continued in southern Amboasary district, thousands displaced; govt 7 June officially launched “coup d’arrêt” security operation against cattle rustlers. Dispute between opposition parties over status in parliament and nomination of opposition leader continued.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jun 2014

Unchanged

Economic downturn continued; govt 14 May slashed diamond licence fees, 15 May announced tax incentives for foreign investors, 26 May eased local ownership laws. China 7 May demanded gold collateral for loans; World Bank 16 May announced Zimbabwe not entitled to debt relief. MDC-T on brink of collapse: National Assembly Speaker Jacob Mudenda 8 May urged party factions to take divisions to court after repeated dismissal attempts from both sides. 18 injured 4 May in Zanu-PF, MDC-T clash in Epworth.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jun 2014

Unchanged

Inter-communal clashes fuelled by cattle rustling early to mid-month killed 22 and displaced 3,000 in southern Amboasary district; additional security forces deployed. MAPAR coalition still divided over role in opposition; 23 May elected former president Andry Rajoelina as leader. IMF, World Bank, EU, U.S. announced full resumption of development assistance.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Amid worsening economic situation in Zimbabwe, EU 3 April refused to provide budgetary support, China 11 April said would not provide bailout or economic rescue package. Govt early April offered increased diamond sales to UAE; 23 April suggested reintroducing Zimbabwe dollar; 24 April softened indigenisation policy, allowing foreign ownership of banks. MDC-T 10 April expelled party Deputy Treasurer General Elton Mangoma for criticising Tsvangirai’s leadership, 29 April expelled SG Tendai Biti for attempted “suspension” of Tsvangirai. U.S. 17 April imposed sanctions on Registrar General Tobaiwa Mudede for controversial role in July 2013 “rigged” elections.

Madagascar

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

President Rajaonarimampianina 11 April appointed relatively unknown, non-politically-aligned doctor Roger Kolo as PM, ending 3-month deadlock. Kolo announced govt of technocrats, move welcomed by U.S., EU, AU.

Madagascar

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Still no new PM, govt; President Rajaonarimampianina early-month rejected proposed candidates Haja Resampa and Rolland Jules Etienne. IMF restored relations, suspended following 2009 coup.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Govt received $53m development aid from mainly European countries following EU’s suspension of sanctions in Feb. IMF announced it will re-open office in Harare, closed since 2004. In ongoing battle between ZANU-PF factions, Masvingo Provincial Executive Committee members aligned with justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa 14 March demanded rerun of Oct ZANU-PF provincial executive committee polls; power struggles intensified in Midland province. Increasing divisions in MDC-T: National Council meeting 7 March suspended deputy treasurer-general Elton Mangoma for provoking division; other senior leaders called for Morgan Tsvangirai to step down as leader. Party confirmed preparations for early elective congress in 2015 to address leadership dispute. President Mugabe 28 March announced boycott of 2-3 April EU-Africa summit because of visa ban on wife.

Madagascar

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

Former transitional president and 2009 coup leader Andry Rajoelina 21 Feb ruled out seeking PM role in new govt; his dominant MAPAR coalition 24 Feb proposed Haja André Resampa (former Rajoelina aide) and secured Christine Razananahosoa, former justice minister in transition, as speaker of house.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

EU 17 Feb suspended sanctions against 8 ZANU-PF and security officials; travel ban, asset freeze on President Mugabe and wife, Zimbabwe Defence Industries sanctions and arms embargo remain in place. EU ministers 18 Feb paved way for resumption of direct development aid to govt. Govt 11 Feb acknowledged lack of funds to help 60,000 people affected by floods in Tokwe Mukosi dam areas, launched $20mn international appeal. Govt deferred promised civil servant salary increase to end April. Mugabe travelled to Singapore for eye operation; spokesperson denied reports of ill health. Mugabe marked 90th birthday 23 Feb with $1m party; voiced frustration over succession battle, said he couldn’t leave helm with party in tatters in 20 Feb TV interview. Increased pressure on MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai: MDC-T youth assaulted deputy Sec Gen Tendai Biti and treasurer Elton Mangoma 15 Feb after calling for Tsvangirai’s resignation.

Madagascar

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Electoral commission 3 Jan confirmed Hery Rajaonarimampianina, candidate backed by outgoing President Rajoelina, won 53.5% in 20 Dec presidential vote; Jean-Louis Robinson, backed by ousted President Ravalomanana, took 46.5%. Robinson alleged irregularities in polls, but 17 Jan lost bid to have results nullified, indicated intention to appeal to SADC, AU. Rajoelina 22 Jan said he may seek PM post, raising fears of renewed tensions. Following Rajaonarimampianina’s inauguration 24 Jan, grenade explosion at Mahamasina stadium killed 1, injured 33. AU 27 Jan lifted suspension of Madagascar, imposed following 2009 coup.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Amid continued economic downturn, govt budget cuts and cash shortages, 2.2mn people reported to be in need of food assistance. UN World Food Programme 14 Jan announced cut in food aid for 1mn Zimbabweans; govt admitted lack of funds to feed population, reportedly requested aid from UK. Justice ministry 16 Jan reported delay in setting up key state institutions due to lack of funds. Finance minister 17 Jan claimed country being sabotaged by foreign banks refusing to offer credit. Civil servants 22 Jan reluctantly accepted salary increase offer following weeks of talks with govt. Battle to succeed President Mugabe stepping up following Nov ZANU-PF provincial executive elections: provincial chairpersons aligned to victor Joice Mujuru facing resistance from executive and provincial co-ordinating committees loyal to opponent Emmerson Mnangagwa. In 25 Jan State of Nation address MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai criticised govt, called for new elections. Mugabe elected first deputy chair of AU executive council 30 Jan.

Zimbabwe

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Following chaotic ZANU-PF provincial elections in Nov, VP Joice Mujuru’s faction of party in control of 9 out of 10 provinces; elections declared free and fair by politburo. Results theoretically pave way for Mujuru to succeed President Mugabe as party leader. ZANU-PF’s 14th Annual National People’s Conference adopted resolutions on reestablishment of Special Economic Zones, public-private partnerships and mining sector 13-14 Dec. Finance minister 19 Dec presented 2014 budget likely to further undermine confidence given reiteration of commitment to indigenisation. Worsening liquidity crisis in Zimbabwe with some banks limiting cash withdrawals by customers. Growing anxiety ahead of 1 Jan deadline for foreign-owned shops to close; indigenisation minister 29 Dec said no evictions will take place.

Madagascar

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Second round of presidential election 20 Dec; Jean-Louis Robinson and Hery Rajaonarimampianina both claimed victory, alleged fraud and vote-rigging. SADC, EU observers noted some irregularities but praised polls as “free, credible and democratic”. Electoral commission 30 Dec released partial results showing Rajaonarimampianina, who is close to transitional President Rajoelina, took lead with 53.13% of votes against 46.87% for Robinson, seen as close to deposed President Ravalomanana; final tally due 7 Jan.

Madagascar

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Special Electoral Court (CES) confirmed results of 25 Oct first round presidential election; Jean-Louis Robinson, seen as close to ousted President Ravalomanana, won 21.16% votes against 15,85% for Hery Rajaonarimampianina, seen as close to transitional President Rajoelina; run-off expected 20 Dec.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

ZANU-PF factional struggles between Mujuru and Mnangagwa camps continued amid chaotic provincial elections. After results of 2 Nov polls in Manicaland, Midlands and Mashonaland Central disputed, politburo upheld Mujuru’s win at extraordinary meeting 23 Nov; elections in 7 other provinces postponed to 30 Nov. Govt held first meeting with IMF delegation 6 Nov since July elections, finance minister 14 Nov stated Zimbabwe open for foreign investment after briefing Western ambassadors about new economic blueprint ZIMASET. Govt set 1 Jan 2014 ultimatum on foreign shop owners to relinquish businesses in line with March 2008 Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Act. Govt signed diamond export deal in Belgium 11-12 Nov, following EU’s Sept lifting of sanctions.

 

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Amid mounting economic problems in aftermath of July election, including food shortages, high unemployment, ZANU-PF blaming Western sanctions while opposition and business point to uncertainty and unclear govt policies undermining confidence. President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF 23 Oct unveiled 5-year economic plan, Zimbabwe Agenda for Socio-Economic Transformation (ZIMASET). ZANU-PF held Provincial Executive Committee elections late Oct amid intense competition between 2 main factions led by justice minister Mnangagwa and VP Mujuru; polls will be decisive in electing party leadership at Dec elective congress. MDC-T motion in parliament to debate July elections blocked by ZANU-PF 16 Oct. MDC objected to ZANU-PF motion for parliament to send message to international community to remove remaining sanctions. MDC-T 27 Oct revealed dossier which it says contains evidence that ZANU-PF rigged July elections.

Madagascar

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

25 Oct presidential elections deemed free and fair by SADC, EU and local observers; preliminary results show ally of ousted president Ravalomanana, Jean-Louis Robinson, with early lead with 27% of votes; main rival Hery Rajaonarimampianina, close to transitional president Rajoelina, just over 15%; run-off likely to be held in Dec. Electoral Commission head 28 Oct indicated provisional results will be available 8 Nov. Reported incidents include: district chief killed at polling station in southern town Benenitra; 1 kidnapped from voting site in Bezaha; polling station burned down in northern district Tsaratanana. Security forces 4 Oct imposed curfew on Nosy Be island after mob lynched 3, including 2 Europeans, suspected of killing child and organ trafficking; 35 arrested.

Madagascar

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

Former President Ravalomanana 14 Sept announced he will support candidate Jean-Louis Robinson in presidential elections scheduled for 25 Oct (first round). AU 6 Sept lifted sanctions against Rajoelina and 109 political personalities imposed in 2010. Series of bomb explosions in capital Antananarivo early Sept, 1 person killed in 16 Sept blast. Presidential campaigns officially began 24 Sept; bomb exploded 26 Sept outside house of Special Electoral Court President François Rakotozafy.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

SADC 2 Sept issued final report of its observer mission in July elections, endorsing poll as “free, peaceful and generally credible”; noted that media highly polarised and biased, also late delivery of voters roll. Western govts, especially U.S., continue to question credibility of outcome. Growing speculation that ZANU-PF will use its 75% majority in parliament to amend constitution, including provisions on devolution of power and public accountability of security institutions. President Mugabe announced new cabinet 10 Sept, retaining most of old guard and introducing some new faces. Hawkish Saviour Kasukuwere replaced with more moderate Francis Nhema in indigenisation ministry; inclusion of hardline propagandist and ZANU-PF politburo member Jonathan Moyo as minister of information responsible for media suggests return to hardline stance. During opening of parliament 18 Sept Mugabe said economic recovery top govt priority. New finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa announced Zimbabwe not desperate to re-engage with West, will continue to rely on economic relationship with China. ZANU-PF early Sept ratcheted up rhetoric against sanctions maintained by U.S., Australia, EU, and Canada; SADC again called for lifting of sanctions. EU 17 Sept announced lifting sanctions on state mining company Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC), despite parliamentary portfolio committee exposing malfeasance in diamond sector and central role of ZMDC, and recent allegations from Mugabe himself that ZMDC chair corrupt.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) 3 Aug announced President Mugabe won 31 July presidential election with 61.09% of vote; PM Tsvangirai trailed with 33.94%. Mugabe’s ZANU-PF won 158 of 210 parliamentary seats, Tsvangirai’s MDC 50. ZANU-PF gains included retaking Masvingo, Manicaland, majority of seats in usually hostile Matabeleland provinces. Preliminary reports by AU, SADC and other observer missions endorsed outcome, though noted irregularities. Folowing Tsvangirai’s 1 Aug dismissal of vote as “farce”, MDC-T 9 Aug lodged challenge of results with Constitutional Court (CC) and application to High Court to release evidence to back case, but 17 Aug withdrew CC case citing unfavourable treatment and partisan nature of judiciary after High Court reserved judgment indefinitely. CC 20 Aug nonetheless ruled against MDC-T, finding elections credible, free and fair. MDC-T 20 Aug vowed to continue to challenge legitimacy of election through other means. Mugabe sworn in as president 22 Aug; MDC formations boycotted. SADC member states recognised election outcome; Botswana 5 Aug initially called for audit of results, later reversed decision and endorsed election results. SADC summit 18 Aug endorsed elections declaring them free and peaceful, urged Western countries to review policies on Zimbabwe, drop sanctions; elected Mugabe as SADC vice chair. UK, U.S., Australia condemned election outcome, U.S. 20 Aug said will not lift sanctions without clear evidence of further political reform.

Madagascar

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Special Electoral Court (CES) 17 Aug cancelled 8 candidatures, including those of Lalao Ravalomanana, Andry Rajoelina and Didier Ratsiraka; CES 22 Aug scheduled elections for 25 Oct 2013. Rajoelina 23 Aug said respects decision, will step down after polls. Former president Ravalomanana 24 Aug called on supporters to keep supporting wife’s candidacy, 27 Aug said would present new candidate; CES 28 Aug rejected demand, said list is “closed and definitive”. At least 73 killed 31 July in clashes between dahalo cattle-raiders and security forces allied with villagers in SE.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Aug 2013

Risk Alert Unchanged

Presidential, parliamentary and local elections held 31 July after Constitutional Court 4 July dismissed applications seeking delay. Although vote largely peaceful, widespread reports of irregularities on polling day and in run-up including reports of intimidation of MDC voters, imbalanced media and vote-rigging allegations. Largest national observer group ZESN 1 Aug said credibility of elections “seriously compromised” by “systematic effort to disenfranchise urban voters up to a million voters”. PM Tsvangirai’s MDC party claimed attempt to disenfranchise its urban support base. Tsvangirai 1 Aug rejected “sham” election; figures in President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF claimed landslide victory, later retracted claims as only election commission allowed to announce outcome. Indications are that AU and SADC will accept election as credible. Observers fear disputed result could lead to return to protracted political crisis.

Madagascar

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

Former first lady Lalao Ravalomana, transitional president Andry Rajoelina, former president Didier Ratsiraka early-month each reiterated intention to run in upcoming presidential elections; SADC gave them until 31 July to withdraw from elections. Govt 23 July announced decision to restructure 21-member Special Electoral Court in line with May SADC request. Police 16 July detained presidential contender Laza Razafiarison for participating in unauthorised demonstration.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged

President Mugabe 13 June issued presidential decree confirming 31 July election date, citing Constitutional Court’s 28 May ruling that polls be held by 31 July. MDC accused Mugabe of acting illegally, violating constitution. Constitutional court ruling on challenges to election date postponed to 4 July. 30-day voter registration began 10 June; mounting concerns over registration process and election preparations. ZANU-PF infighting continued; primaries to choose candidate delayed till 26 June; many losing candidates reportedly contemplating standing as independents in elections if grievances are not addressed. AU 19 June deployed advance group of long term observers.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged

National Independent Electoral Commission (CENIT) confirmed 13 June cabinet decision delaying polls scheduled for 24 July citing logistical and political problems, said it will consult with UN on new date. CENIT chair Beatrice Attalah 25 June called on international community to allow all 41 presidential contenders to run for elections, including transitional president Rajoelina, former president Ratsiraka and wife of former president Ravalomanana. UN, AU, SADC reiterated warning that they will not recognise election results should any of the 3 win; International Contact Group endorsed SADC/AU positions.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jun 2013

Unchanged

GPA partners 22 May formally adopted new constitution. Calls by ZANU-PF and state media for election by 29 June continued. MDC-T primary process began 24 May after several delays, ZANU-PF yet to start. Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Chiwenga 5 May dismissed claims MDC-T met with security chiefs, said PM Tsvangirai needs “psychiatric treatment”, exacerbating fears of intimidation and possible violence in run-up to election. Editor of Zimbabwe Independent Dumisani Muleya and journalists Owen Gagare and Nqobile Ndlovu arrested 7 May for reporting MDC-T claims they met security chiefs. Political intimidation continued throughout month including in Matebeleland and Mashonaland Central. MDC-T youth wing leader Solomon Madzore arrested 2 May, charged with insulting president. SADC heads of state 29 May agreed to start coordinating efforts to raise funds for election.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jun 2013

Deteriorated

Fears that SADC-brokered Sept 2011 roadmap for political transition unravelling as political figures reneged on agreements not to stand in forthcoming presidential elections; and transitional president Andry Rajoelina 27 May refused to step down as president as required by electoral law, prompting authorities to postpone planned 24 July elections aimed at bringing 4-year political crisis to an end. Following 14 April submission by former president Marc Ravalomanana’s Mouvance coalition of former first lady Lalao Ravalomanana as presidential candidate, Rajoelina also submitted application to run, arguing that Marc Ravalomanana promoting wife as proxy (both men had pledged not to run). In surprise move electoral court 3 May validated applications of 41 candidates to run for election including Lalao Ravalomanana, Rajoelina and former president Didier Ratsiraka – whose April return from exile was also conditional on him not participating in elections. SADC 10 May called on all 3 to withdraw, said its further support for elections contingent on compliance with roadmap, 26 May said it will not recognise election if one of them wins; SADC position on withdrawal and non-recognition endorsed at AU summit 25-26 May. UNSG Ban also called on the three candidates to withdraw from race. Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM) 5 May concluded inter-Malagasy dialogue, recommended elections be postponed and called for new roadmap.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Battles to succeed President Mugabe within ZANU-PF party intensified, with VP Mujuru and Defence Minister Mnangagwa still seen as main contenders: in swing province Manicaland, local leaders expressed vote of no confidence in Mujuru ally Dydmus Mutasa, while arrest of provincial chair Mike Madiro for alleged fraud and theft sparked rumours he was targeted because of his support for Mnangagwa. EU suspended sanctions against 81 ZANU-PF officials, leaving just 10 on list, citing adoption of new constitution as significant step. Continued concerns over lack of funding for elections scheduled for 29 June, budgeted at $132m; ZANU-PF mid-month rejected UN needs assessment mission claiming it overstepped mandate by including security-related concerns and requesting meetings with civil society. Heightened tension within unity govt and clampdowns on civil society further exacerbated fears elections will not be credible.

Madagascar

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM) 18 April launched national dialogue involving 180 political parties and entities to solve political crisis; UN, AU criticised FFKM mediation for broaching idea of postponing elections on first day of dialogue. Newly-created National Council for Reconciliation 10 April named General Rabotoarison to lead reconciliation efforts. Mouvance Ravalomanana coalition 14 April announced nomination of former first lady Lalao Ravalomanana as candidate for upcoming presidential elections; President Rajoelina’s Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) party 6 April nominated outsider Edgard Razafindravahy as candidate. Head of gendarmerie said security forces need €2.5 million to ensure peaceful elections.

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