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Homepage > Publication Type > CrisisWatch > CrisisWatch Database

CrisisWatch Database

Region / country

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247 results found
Items 1 - 50 of 247 First   Previous   Next   Last

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

Ruling ZANU-PF infighting continued between VP Joice Mujuru and Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa; First Lady Grace Mugabe endorsed 28 July as next leader of party’s Women’s league prompting concerns she could succeed husband in 2018. Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, Environment Minister Saviour Kasukuwere questioned late July over unidentified anti-regime Facebook blogger. Transform Zimbabwe leader Jacob Ngarivhume 18 July denounced harassment and crackdown on opposition after being detained alongside 13 others 12 July for holding unauthorised public gatherings. Amid continued economic downturn and threats of street protests by civil society groups, IMF 8 July highlighted some progress in economic reforms, called for greater transparency in mining and diamond industries. Mugabe 2 July called for white farmers to leave country; Mnangagwa 10 July downplayed rant as “misunderstanding”.

Madagascar

  |  1 Aug 2014

Unchanged

PM Kolo 3 July declared 40% of budget lost to corruption, promised reforms. Reassembled Tiako I Madagasikara (TIM) opposition party pushed for return of former President Marc Ravalomanana; return reportedly opposed by President Hery Rajaonarimampianina. 2 journalists arrested 23 July for alleged defamation of minister, 50 journalists same day led protest in Antananarivo; journalists released 25 July.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jul 2014

Unchanged

Ruling ZANU-PF infighting continued as President Mugabe’s health deteriorates: Mugabe 6 June accused Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo of using state media to divide and destabilise govt; police 19 June arrested editor of state-owned Sunday Mail, court 21 June charged him with subversion and undermining Mugabe’s authority. Continued divisions in opposition MDC-T: Sec Gen Tendai Biti’s “Renewal Team” 29 June “expelled” leader Morgan Tsvangirai for alleged misconduct.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jul 2014

Unchanged

Inter-communal violence continued in southern Amboasary district, thousands displaced; govt 7 June officially launched “coup d’arrêt” security operation against cattle rustlers. Dispute between opposition parties over status in parliament and nomination of opposition leader continued.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jun 2014

Unchanged

Economic downturn continued; govt 14 May slashed diamond licence fees, 15 May announced tax incentives for foreign investors, 26 May eased local ownership laws. China 7 May demanded gold collateral for loans; World Bank 16 May announced Zimbabwe not entitled to debt relief. MDC-T on brink of collapse: National Assembly Speaker Jacob Mudenda 8 May urged party factions to take divisions to court after repeated dismissal attempts from both sides. 18 injured 4 May in Zanu-PF, MDC-T clash in Epworth.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jun 2014

Unchanged

Inter-communal clashes fuelled by cattle rustling early to mid-month killed 22 and displaced 3,000 in southern Amboasary district; additional security forces deployed. MAPAR coalition still divided over role in opposition; 23 May elected former president Andry Rajoelina as leader. IMF, World Bank, EU, U.S. announced full resumption of development assistance.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

Amid worsening economic situation in Zimbabwe, EU 3 April refused to provide budgetary support, China 11 April said would not provide bailout or economic rescue package. Govt early April offered increased diamond sales to UAE; 23 April suggested reintroducing Zimbabwe dollar; 24 April softened indigenisation policy, allowing foreign ownership of banks. MDC-T 10 April expelled party Deputy Treasurer General Elton Mangoma for criticising Tsvangirai’s leadership, 29 April expelled SG Tendai Biti for attempted “suspension” of Tsvangirai. U.S. 17 April imposed sanctions on Registrar General Tobaiwa Mudede for controversial role in July 2013 “rigged” elections.

Madagascar

  |  1 May 2014

Unchanged

President Rajaonarimampianina 11 April appointed relatively unknown, non-politically-aligned doctor Roger Kolo as PM, ending 3-month deadlock. Kolo announced govt of technocrats, move welcomed by U.S., EU, AU.

Madagascar

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Still no new PM, govt; President Rajaonarimampianina early-month rejected proposed candidates Haja Resampa and Rolland Jules Etienne. IMF restored relations, suspended following 2009 coup.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Govt received $53m development aid from mainly European countries following EU’s suspension of sanctions in Feb. IMF announced it will re-open office in Harare, closed since 2004. In ongoing battle between ZANU-PF factions, Masvingo Provincial Executive Committee members aligned with justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa 14 March demanded rerun of Oct ZANU-PF provincial executive committee polls; power struggles intensified in Midland province. Increasing divisions in MDC-T: National Council meeting 7 March suspended deputy treasurer-general Elton Mangoma for provoking division; other senior leaders called for Morgan Tsvangirai to step down as leader. Party confirmed preparations for early elective congress in 2015 to address leadership dispute. President Mugabe 28 March announced boycott of 2-3 April EU-Africa summit because of visa ban on wife.

Madagascar

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

Former transitional president and 2009 coup leader Andry Rajoelina 21 Feb ruled out seeking PM role in new govt; his dominant MAPAR coalition 24 Feb proposed Haja André Resampa (former Rajoelina aide) and secured Christine Razananahosoa, former justice minister in transition, as speaker of house.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

EU 17 Feb suspended sanctions against 8 ZANU-PF and security officials; travel ban, asset freeze on President Mugabe and wife, Zimbabwe Defence Industries sanctions and arms embargo remain in place. EU ministers 18 Feb paved way for resumption of direct development aid to govt. Govt 11 Feb acknowledged lack of funds to help 60,000 people affected by floods in Tokwe Mukosi dam areas, launched $20mn international appeal. Govt deferred promised civil servant salary increase to end April. Mugabe travelled to Singapore for eye operation; spokesperson denied reports of ill health. Mugabe marked 90th birthday 23 Feb with $1m party; voiced frustration over succession battle, said he couldn’t leave helm with party in tatters in 20 Feb TV interview. Increased pressure on MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai: MDC-T youth assaulted deputy Sec Gen Tendai Biti and treasurer Elton Mangoma 15 Feb after calling for Tsvangirai’s resignation.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Amid continued economic downturn, govt budget cuts and cash shortages, 2.2mn people reported to be in need of food assistance. UN World Food Programme 14 Jan announced cut in food aid for 1mn Zimbabweans; govt admitted lack of funds to feed population, reportedly requested aid from UK. Justice ministry 16 Jan reported delay in setting up key state institutions due to lack of funds. Finance minister 17 Jan claimed country being sabotaged by foreign banks refusing to offer credit. Civil servants 22 Jan reluctantly accepted salary increase offer following weeks of talks with govt. Battle to succeed President Mugabe stepping up following Nov ZANU-PF provincial executive elections: provincial chairpersons aligned to victor Joice Mujuru facing resistance from executive and provincial co-ordinating committees loyal to opponent Emmerson Mnangagwa. In 25 Jan State of Nation address MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai criticised govt, called for new elections. Mugabe elected first deputy chair of AU executive council 30 Jan.

Madagascar

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Electoral commission 3 Jan confirmed Hery Rajaonarimampianina, candidate backed by outgoing President Rajoelina, won 53.5% in 20 Dec presidential vote; Jean-Louis Robinson, backed by ousted President Ravalomanana, took 46.5%. Robinson alleged irregularities in polls, but 17 Jan lost bid to have results nullified, indicated intention to appeal to SADC, AU. Rajoelina 22 Jan said he may seek PM post, raising fears of renewed tensions. Following Rajaonarimampianina’s inauguration 24 Jan, grenade explosion at Mahamasina stadium killed 1, injured 33. AU 27 Jan lifted suspension of Madagascar, imposed following 2009 coup.

Zimbabwe

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Following chaotic ZANU-PF provincial elections in Nov, VP Joice Mujuru’s faction of party in control of 9 out of 10 provinces; elections declared free and fair by politburo. Results theoretically pave way for Mujuru to succeed President Mugabe as party leader. ZANU-PF’s 14th Annual National People’s Conference adopted resolutions on reestablishment of Special Economic Zones, public-private partnerships and mining sector 13-14 Dec. Finance minister 19 Dec presented 2014 budget likely to further undermine confidence given reiteration of commitment to indigenisation. Worsening liquidity crisis in Zimbabwe with some banks limiting cash withdrawals by customers. Growing anxiety ahead of 1 Jan deadline for foreign-owned shops to close; indigenisation minister 29 Dec said no evictions will take place.

Madagascar

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Second round of presidential election 20 Dec; Jean-Louis Robinson and Hery Rajaonarimampianina both claimed victory, alleged fraud and vote-rigging. SADC, EU observers noted some irregularities but praised polls as “free, credible and democratic”. Electoral commission 30 Dec released partial results showing Rajaonarimampianina, who is close to transitional President Rajoelina, took lead with 53.13% of votes against 46.87% for Robinson, seen as close to deposed President Ravalomanana; final tally due 7 Jan.

Madagascar

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Special Electoral Court (CES) confirmed results of 25 Oct first round presidential election; Jean-Louis Robinson, seen as close to ousted President Ravalomanana, won 21.16% votes against 15,85% for Hery Rajaonarimampianina, seen as close to transitional President Rajoelina; run-off expected 20 Dec.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

ZANU-PF factional struggles between Mujuru and Mnangagwa camps continued amid chaotic provincial elections. After results of 2 Nov polls in Manicaland, Midlands and Mashonaland Central disputed, politburo upheld Mujuru’s win at extraordinary meeting 23 Nov; elections in 7 other provinces postponed to 30 Nov. Govt held first meeting with IMF delegation 6 Nov since July elections, finance minister 14 Nov stated Zimbabwe open for foreign investment after briefing Western ambassadors about new economic blueprint ZIMASET. Govt set 1 Jan 2014 ultimatum on foreign shop owners to relinquish businesses in line with March 2008 Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Act. Govt signed diamond export deal in Belgium 11-12 Nov, following EU’s Sept lifting of sanctions.

 

Madagascar

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

25 Oct presidential elections deemed free and fair by SADC, EU and local observers; preliminary results show ally of ousted president Ravalomanana, Jean-Louis Robinson, with early lead with 27% of votes; main rival Hery Rajaonarimampianina, close to transitional president Rajoelina, just over 15%; run-off likely to be held in Dec. Electoral Commission head 28 Oct indicated provisional results will be available 8 Nov. Reported incidents include: district chief killed at polling station in southern town Benenitra; 1 kidnapped from voting site in Bezaha; polling station burned down in northern district Tsaratanana. Security forces 4 Oct imposed curfew on Nosy Be island after mob lynched 3, including 2 Europeans, suspected of killing child and organ trafficking; 35 arrested.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Amid mounting economic problems in aftermath of July election, including food shortages, high unemployment, ZANU-PF blaming Western sanctions while opposition and business point to uncertainty and unclear govt policies undermining confidence. President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF 23 Oct unveiled 5-year economic plan, Zimbabwe Agenda for Socio-Economic Transformation (ZIMASET). ZANU-PF held Provincial Executive Committee elections late Oct amid intense competition between 2 main factions led by justice minister Mnangagwa and VP Mujuru; polls will be decisive in electing party leadership at Dec elective congress. MDC-T motion in parliament to debate July elections blocked by ZANU-PF 16 Oct. MDC objected to ZANU-PF motion for parliament to send message to international community to remove remaining sanctions. MDC-T 27 Oct revealed dossier which it says contains evidence that ZANU-PF rigged July elections.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

SADC 2 Sept issued final report of its observer mission in July elections, endorsing poll as “free, peaceful and generally credible”; noted that media highly polarised and biased, also late delivery of voters roll. Western govts, especially U.S., continue to question credibility of outcome. Growing speculation that ZANU-PF will use its 75% majority in parliament to amend constitution, including provisions on devolution of power and public accountability of security institutions. President Mugabe announced new cabinet 10 Sept, retaining most of old guard and introducing some new faces. Hawkish Saviour Kasukuwere replaced with more moderate Francis Nhema in indigenisation ministry; inclusion of hardline propagandist and ZANU-PF politburo member Jonathan Moyo as minister of information responsible for media suggests return to hardline stance. During opening of parliament 18 Sept Mugabe said economic recovery top govt priority. New finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa announced Zimbabwe not desperate to re-engage with West, will continue to rely on economic relationship with China. ZANU-PF early Sept ratcheted up rhetoric against sanctions maintained by U.S., Australia, EU, and Canada; SADC again called for lifting of sanctions. EU 17 Sept announced lifting sanctions on state mining company Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC), despite parliamentary portfolio committee exposing malfeasance in diamond sector and central role of ZMDC, and recent allegations from Mugabe himself that ZMDC chair corrupt.

Madagascar

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

Former President Ravalomanana 14 Sept announced he will support candidate Jean-Louis Robinson in presidential elections scheduled for 25 Oct (first round). AU 6 Sept lifted sanctions against Rajoelina and 109 political personalities imposed in 2010. Series of bomb explosions in capital Antananarivo early Sept, 1 person killed in 16 Sept blast. Presidential campaigns officially began 24 Sept; bomb exploded 26 Sept outside house of Special Electoral Court President François Rakotozafy.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) 3 Aug announced President Mugabe won 31 July presidential election with 61.09% of vote; PM Tsvangirai trailed with 33.94%. Mugabe’s ZANU-PF won 158 of 210 parliamentary seats, Tsvangirai’s MDC 50. ZANU-PF gains included retaking Masvingo, Manicaland, majority of seats in usually hostile Matabeleland provinces. Preliminary reports by AU, SADC and other observer missions endorsed outcome, though noted irregularities. Folowing Tsvangirai’s 1 Aug dismissal of vote as “farce”, MDC-T 9 Aug lodged challenge of results with Constitutional Court (CC) and application to High Court to release evidence to back case, but 17 Aug withdrew CC case citing unfavourable treatment and partisan nature of judiciary after High Court reserved judgment indefinitely. CC 20 Aug nonetheless ruled against MDC-T, finding elections credible, free and fair. MDC-T 20 Aug vowed to continue to challenge legitimacy of election through other means. Mugabe sworn in as president 22 Aug; MDC formations boycotted. SADC member states recognised election outcome; Botswana 5 Aug initially called for audit of results, later reversed decision and endorsed election results. SADC summit 18 Aug endorsed elections declaring them free and peaceful, urged Western countries to review policies on Zimbabwe, drop sanctions; elected Mugabe as SADC vice chair. UK, U.S., Australia condemned election outcome, U.S. 20 Aug said will not lift sanctions without clear evidence of further political reform.

Madagascar

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Special Electoral Court (CES) 17 Aug cancelled 8 candidatures, including those of Lalao Ravalomanana, Andry Rajoelina and Didier Ratsiraka; CES 22 Aug scheduled elections for 25 Oct 2013. Rajoelina 23 Aug said respects decision, will step down after polls. Former president Ravalomanana 24 Aug called on supporters to keep supporting wife’s candidacy, 27 Aug said would present new candidate; CES 28 Aug rejected demand, said list is “closed and definitive”. At least 73 killed 31 July in clashes between dahalo cattle-raiders and security forces allied with villagers in SE.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Aug 2013

Risk Alert Unchanged

Presidential, parliamentary and local elections held 31 July after Constitutional Court 4 July dismissed applications seeking delay. Although vote largely peaceful, widespread reports of irregularities on polling day and in run-up including reports of intimidation of MDC voters, imbalanced media and vote-rigging allegations. Largest national observer group ZESN 1 Aug said credibility of elections “seriously compromised” by “systematic effort to disenfranchise urban voters up to a million voters”. PM Tsvangirai’s MDC party claimed attempt to disenfranchise its urban support base. Tsvangirai 1 Aug rejected “sham” election; figures in President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF claimed landslide victory, later retracted claims as only election commission allowed to announce outcome. Indications are that AU and SADC will accept election as credible. Observers fear disputed result could lead to return to protracted political crisis.

Madagascar

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

Former first lady Lalao Ravalomana, transitional president Andry Rajoelina, former president Didier Ratsiraka early-month each reiterated intention to run in upcoming presidential elections; SADC gave them until 31 July to withdraw from elections. Govt 23 July announced decision to restructure 21-member Special Electoral Court in line with May SADC request. Police 16 July detained presidential contender Laza Razafiarison for participating in unauthorised demonstration.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged

National Independent Electoral Commission (CENIT) confirmed 13 June cabinet decision delaying polls scheduled for 24 July citing logistical and political problems, said it will consult with UN on new date. CENIT chair Beatrice Attalah 25 June called on international community to allow all 41 presidential contenders to run for elections, including transitional president Rajoelina, former president Ratsiraka and wife of former president Ravalomanana. UN, AU, SADC reiterated warning that they will not recognise election results should any of the 3 win; International Contact Group endorsed SADC/AU positions.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged

President Mugabe 13 June issued presidential decree confirming 31 July election date, citing Constitutional Court’s 28 May ruling that polls be held by 31 July. MDC accused Mugabe of acting illegally, violating constitution. Constitutional court ruling on challenges to election date postponed to 4 July. 30-day voter registration began 10 June; mounting concerns over registration process and election preparations. ZANU-PF infighting continued; primaries to choose candidate delayed till 26 June; many losing candidates reportedly contemplating standing as independents in elections if grievances are not addressed. AU 19 June deployed advance group of long term observers.

Madagascar

  |  1 Jun 2013

Deteriorated

Fears that SADC-brokered Sept 2011 roadmap for political transition unravelling as political figures reneged on agreements not to stand in forthcoming presidential elections; and transitional president Andry Rajoelina 27 May refused to step down as president as required by electoral law, prompting authorities to postpone planned 24 July elections aimed at bringing 4-year political crisis to an end. Following 14 April submission by former president Marc Ravalomanana’s Mouvance coalition of former first lady Lalao Ravalomanana as presidential candidate, Rajoelina also submitted application to run, arguing that Marc Ravalomanana promoting wife as proxy (both men had pledged not to run). In surprise move electoral court 3 May validated applications of 41 candidates to run for election including Lalao Ravalomanana, Rajoelina and former president Didier Ratsiraka – whose April return from exile was also conditional on him not participating in elections. SADC 10 May called on all 3 to withdraw, said its further support for elections contingent on compliance with roadmap, 26 May said it will not recognise election if one of them wins; SADC position on withdrawal and non-recognition endorsed at AU summit 25-26 May. UNSG Ban also called on the three candidates to withdraw from race. Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM) 5 May concluded inter-Malagasy dialogue, recommended elections be postponed and called for new roadmap.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Jun 2013

Unchanged

GPA partners 22 May formally adopted new constitution. Calls by ZANU-PF and state media for election by 29 June continued. MDC-T primary process began 24 May after several delays, ZANU-PF yet to start. Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Chiwenga 5 May dismissed claims MDC-T met with security chiefs, said PM Tsvangirai needs “psychiatric treatment”, exacerbating fears of intimidation and possible violence in run-up to election. Editor of Zimbabwe Independent Dumisani Muleya and journalists Owen Gagare and Nqobile Ndlovu arrested 7 May for reporting MDC-T claims they met security chiefs. Political intimidation continued throughout month including in Matebeleland and Mashonaland Central. MDC-T youth wing leader Solomon Madzore arrested 2 May, charged with insulting president. SADC heads of state 29 May agreed to start coordinating efforts to raise funds for election.

Madagascar

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM) 18 April launched national dialogue involving 180 political parties and entities to solve political crisis; UN, AU criticised FFKM mediation for broaching idea of postponing elections on first day of dialogue. Newly-created National Council for Reconciliation 10 April named General Rabotoarison to lead reconciliation efforts. Mouvance Ravalomanana coalition 14 April announced nomination of former first lady Lalao Ravalomanana as candidate for upcoming presidential elections; President Rajoelina’s Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) party 6 April nominated outsider Edgard Razafindravahy as candidate. Head of gendarmerie said security forces need €2.5 million to ensure peaceful elections.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 May 2013

Unchanged

Battles to succeed President Mugabe within ZANU-PF party intensified, with VP Mujuru and Defence Minister Mnangagwa still seen as main contenders: in swing province Manicaland, local leaders expressed vote of no confidence in Mujuru ally Dydmus Mutasa, while arrest of provincial chair Mike Madiro for alleged fraud and theft sparked rumours he was targeted because of his support for Mnangagwa. EU suspended sanctions against 81 ZANU-PF officials, leaving just 10 on list, citing adoption of new constitution as significant step. Continued concerns over lack of funding for elections scheduled for 29 June, budgeted at $132m; ZANU-PF mid-month rejected UN needs assessment mission claiming it overstepped mandate by including security-related concerns and requesting meetings with civil society. Heightened tension within unity govt and clampdowns on civil society further exacerbated fears elections will not be credible.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

Referendum on adoption of new constitution held 16-17 March with highest turnout for any election in decades. Of those voting, 94.5% voted in favour. MDC MP and BBC team reportedly assaulted during final stages of campaigning. Observers including national group Zimbabwe Election Support Network and SADC said referendum peaceful, reflected will of people; EU 25 March eased sanctions on 81 officials and 8 firms; sanctions on President Mugabe and 10 close associates remain. Tensions continued to rise ahead of upcoming elections with reports of ZANU-PF intimidation of civilians, police raids on civil society organizations. Police 17 March raided PM Tsvangirai’s communications office, seized computers, arrested 4 staff and charged them with breaching official secrets code, impersonating police and illegal possession of documents. Human rights lawyer Beatrice Mtetra, who intervened during raid, arrested for obstructing justice; released on bail 25 March.

Madagascar

  |  1 Apr 2013

Unchanged

President Rajoelina 13 March announced legislative elections to be held 7 May.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Mar 2013

Deteriorated

Increased raids on NGOs, confiscation of documents and equipment, and allegations by police that “99% of NGOs engaged in regime change”, following President Mugabe’s 15 Feb announcement constitutional referendum to be held 16 March; month also saw reports of politically-motivated violence, intimidation. Police 19 Feb issued edict allowing them to seize radios, same day raided offices of independent election support group Crisis Coalition for alleged subversive materials. PM Tsvangirai 13 Feb said presidential polls expected July; VP Mujuru 24 Feb said only SADC observers will be allowed to monitor polls. EU 18 Feb lifted targeted sanctions for 21 regime members; U.S. said prepared to end targeted sanctions, re-engage in bilateral collaboration if govt honours commitments for reform and implements election roadmap. 3 UN special rapporteurs called for respect for fundamental human rights in run-up to polls.

Madagascar

  |  1 Mar 2013

Unchanged

National electoral commission (CENIT) 5 Feb announced legislative and presidential elections postponed from May to July; over 30 candidates expected to contest presidential polls. South Africa’s highest court 5 Feb rejected final appeal by former president Ravalomanana to have passport returned, effectively precluding him from attending regional meetings or returning to Madagascar. AU Peace and Security Council 16 Feb rejected request from govt to reintegrate country into organisation. Tensions in south continued: at least 10 killed, 1,200 cattle stolen, 153 houses burned in clashes between Dahalo cattle-raiders and villagers in Amboasary-sud district.

Madagascar

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

Transitional President Rajoelina 15 Jan said would not contest upcoming elections but will stand in 2018 polls; UNSG Ban 17 Jan welcomed decision, reiterated importance of upholding electoral calendar. President of Lower House Mamy Rakotoarivelo said Rajoelina hoping to set up a “Putin-Medvedev scheme” by supporting ally in presidential election in hope it will secure him nomination as PM.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Feb 2013

Unchanged

GPA principals 18 Jan announced consensus reached on draft constitution. Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) received several reportsof political violence and intimidation by army personnel in Mashonaland West. Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) said voter registration exercise announced in Dec 2012 delayed due to lack of funds.

Zimbabwe

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Belligerent calls for elections continued throughout month: at ZANU-PF’s peoples conference in Gweru 7-9 Dec, party insisted polls will be held by end of March 2013; President Mugabe threatened to force collapse of GPA and call elections if no progress made on draft constitution before Christmas day, accused “dirty western hands” of “smuggling foreign anathema views” into draft. Despite Mugabe’s ultimatum, draft constitution not finalised. In ZANU-PF report on political violence. ZANU-PF said 2011-2012 period saw more members subjected to attacks by MDC elements, adopted resolution “shunning violence unless provoked by other parties”, raising fears of renewed inter-party violence in forthcoming elections. Deputy PM Mutambara 19 Dec said country will hold general elections next year “with or without new constitution”; Finance Minister Biti 21 Dec said country “cannot afford” to hold elections in 2013, appealed to international community for aid. SADC Executive Secretary Salomão 11 Dec said Zimbabwe will send peacekeeping troops to DRC as part of SADC mission under Tanzanian command. 

Madagascar

  |  30 Dec 2012

Unchanged

SADC heads of state summit 8 Dec endorsed “ni-ni” option, meaning neither transitional President Rajoelina nor former president Ravalomanana can run in May-July 2013 elections. Following 10 Dec meeting with SADC troika chair Tanzanian President Kikwete, Ravalomanana 11 Dec announced decision not to contest elections; Kikwete 14 Dec met with Rajoelina to dissuade him from running, but agreement with Rajoelina not confirmed. UN 28 Dec said it will launch investigations into allegations of extra-judicial killings and mob lynchings in southern region Anosy since start of military’s Operation Tandroka against cattle rustlers in Sept; EU envoy Tezapsidis late-month expressed concern insecurity in south could affect preparations for polls. Govt 20 Dec declared state of emergency in capital due to increased number of armed assaults.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Dec 2012

Unchanged

Month saw increased manoeuvring within ZANU-PF between Mujuru and Mnangagwa factions ahead of party’s 13th National People’s Conference in Dec and planned restructuring following disbanding of District Coordinating Committees. Reports of increasing army deployments to rural areas fuelled concerns over security. Electoral Commission 26 Nov said $50mn allocated in national budget (as opposed to $270mn requested) is insufficient to fund referendum and elections set for 2013. Campaign group Partnership Africa Canada mid-month alleged $2bn in diamond revenues unaccounted for. Intimidation of opposition, rights activists, civil society continued, including 12 Nov arrest of 150 Women of Zimbabwe Arise activists in Bulawayo. Observatory for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders 26 Nov said govt violently suppressing rights activists.

Madagascar

  |  1 Dec 2012

Unchanged

SADC 25 Nov condemned recent human rights violations, crackdown on freedom of expression by govt. Supporters of former president Ravalomanana 15 Nov criticised govt’s “authoritarian drift”. Amnesty International 20 Nov called on govt to rein in security forces in south who are accused of mass killings. Christian churches council 26 Nov began new mediation/reconciliation process aimed at bringing political roadmap signatories to negotiating table.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Nov 2012

Unchanged

Feared showdown over draft constitution at 21-23 Oct Second All-Stakeholders Conference did not materialise. However, President Mugabe 21 Oct claimed political party principals will have final say on input from Second All-Stakeholders Conference, prompting fears principals may try to force amendments. Petrol bomb attack in Zaka early Oct injured several MDC supporters; PM Tsvangirai 6 Oct again threatened to pull out of unity govt, citing renewed violence against MDC members/supporters. MDC-T negotiator and Energy Minister Elton Mangoma arrested 10 Oct, accused of “undermining president”; released on bail. Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and ZANU-PF spokesman/politburo member Rugare Gumbo announced Tsvangirai presidency would not be acceptable to military.

Madagascar

  |  1 Nov 2012

Unchanged

SADC consultation mission visited mid-month to assess roadmap implementation, feasibility of holding elections in May 2013. SADC military mission 15 Oct visited to assess security conditions in view of former president Ravalomanana’s return, met with detained soldiers. Security forces reportedly burned down 16 villages in south suspected of harbouring dahalo cattle-rustlers.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Oct 2012

Unchanged

Major parties 13 Sept agreed to take Constitution Select Committee (COPAC) draft constitution to Second All Stakeholders Conference as required by GPA; standoff provoked when ZANU-PF tabled draft with 220 amendments but MDC refused to return to negotiating table. Supreme Court Chief Justice approved one-month postponement of announcement of by-election dates to 31 Sept; Justice Minister Chinamasa sought further extension to late March 2013 citing lack of funding; President Mugabe submitted affidavit arguing by-elections not necessary as will coincide with general elections. Signs that repressive security architecture instrumental in 2008 electoral violence being reactivated: Electoral Support Network 12 Sept reported reactivation of 2008 torture bases in several rural areas amid increased reports of youth militia activities.

Madagascar

  |  1 Oct 2012

Unchanged

Govt mid-Sept deployed special forces in south following killing of at least 100 suspected Dahalo cattle-raiders in attacks by villagers 31 Aug-1 Sept, killing of 3 soldiers in Belo sur Tsiribihina 4-5 Sept by suspected Dahalos. Suspected Dahalos 14 Sept attacked Ihasy, Ibity villages in Antsirabe II District. Media 7 Sept reported 3 pro-opposition journalists sought refuge in S African embassy to escape security forces. Transitional President Rajoelina 26 Sept “allowed to travel” to NY to attend UNGA following early Sept refusal of visa by U.S. consulate.

Madagascar

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

SADC heads of state summit in Maputo 17-18 Aug called on mediator to “intensify” engagement on implementation of election roadmap. 26 July, 8 Aug meetings between transitional President Rajoelina, former president Ravalomanana failed to resolve impasse. CENIT 2 Aug announced presidential elections to be held 8 May 2013; Seychelles FM Jean-Paul Adam 18 Aug said SADC considering holding elections “without Rajoelina and Ravalomanana”. South African National Prosecuting Authority 4 Aug said will investigate Ravalomanana for crimes against humanity. SADC late Aug reportedly sent mission to evaluate on-the-ground security conditions in view of Ravalomanana’s return. 3 injured 25 Aug in Analakely hotel bombing reportedly targeting military officer.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Sep 2012

Unchanged

SADC heads of state summit in Maputo 17-18 Aug emphasised progress on constitutional reform, urged GPA signatories to develop election roadmap timelines, implementation mechanism. MDC-T 3 Aug formally endorsed new draft constitution, PM Tsvangirai 28 Aug said would not negotiate further major amendments; ZANU-PF called for further changes, 29 Aug threatened elections; SADC facilitator President Zuma 24 Aug proposed referendum on COPAC, ZANU-PF drafts to resolve political impasse. High Court 30 Aug extended deadline for by-elections to 1 Oct. 2012 census began amid reported attempts by security sector members to infiltrate process. SADC 17-18 Aug decision to restrict tribunal jurisdiction to inter-state disputes condemned by human rights, legal activists.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Aug 2012

Unchanged

Constitution Select Committee (COPAC) 19 July handed final constitution draft to GPA principals; draft proposes presidential term limits, requires parliamentary consultation on appointments, dual citizenship not included. EU 23 July agreed to lift ban on direct development aid; pledged to lift most sanctions if “peaceful and credible” referendum on new constitution held. Supreme Court 13 July released decision forcing by-election date to be set by end Aug for 3 parliament seats vacated in 2009 by MDC-M defections to MDC-T; Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa 19 July announced polls would be held in further 35 vacant seats. Parliament 10 July passed legislation establishing human rights commission, laws prevent investigations of violations occurring before Feb 2009. 2 MDC-T activists charged 14 July with assaulting Zanu-PF supporter in Mashonaland West province; further 2 activists charged 15 July with distributing party newsletter in Masvingo province; all later granted bail. Soldiers 14 July prevented MDC-T rally in Darwendale, MDC-T SG Tendai Biti said party would respond to any Zanu-PF violence in next elections; Zanu-PF youths 22 July disrupted second rally, 11 MDC officials including district chairperson reported critically injured.

Madagascar

  |  1 Aug 2012

Deteriorated

SADC 16 July issued 31 July deadline for President Rajoelina, former president Ravalomanana to finalise outstanding roadmap issues; rivals 25 July met without reaching agreement. Ravalomanana’s wife deported to Thailand 27 July following attempt to return to Madagascar; Ravalomanana said Rajoelina untrustworthy, deportation “flagrant violation” of resolutions reached during talks; SADC 31 July condemned attempt to return. Attempted mutiny successfully quashed by army 22 July; lead mutineer, negotiator killed; opposition radio station Free FM 24 July closed citing military intimidation for having broadcast mutineers’ statements. Ravalomanana served with summons 17 July for South African lawsuit filed by victims of 2009 violence leading to his overthrow. Rajoelina 18 July suspended 5 pro-Ravalomanana ministers over 3-month boycott of cabinet meetings.

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CrisisWatch N°132

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