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CrisisWatch Database

Region / country

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654 results found
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Uganda

  |  1 Jul 2015

Unchanged

Former PM Amama Mbabazi 15 June declared presidential candidacy, challenging President Museveni within ruling NRM party. Opposition party leaders 10 June established Democratic Alliance coalition; coalition will field joint candidate, including for president, promised to form five-year Transitional Govt of National Unity and enact political and institutional reforms. Police 19 June arrested former army General David Sejusa, who previously criticised Museveni, for holding illegal assembly. EU 5 June criticised Constitutional Amendment Bill tabled by govt late-May, for potential impact on credibility of upcoming elections.

South Sudan

  |  1 Jul 2015

Unchanged

Kenyan President Kenyatta 29 May announced “merger” of IGAD peace process and SPLM reunification process. Delegation of five out of ten SPLM-Former Detainees (FDs) early June visited S Sudan after considerable pressure from S Africa and Kenya: accompanied by S African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Kenyan and Ethiopian FMs. Former detainee Pagan Amum reinstated as Sec Gen of SPLM 23 June. Merged process stalled 28 June as talks with President Kiir and former VP Machar in Nairobi failed. IGAD special envoys 8-10 June held consultations with S Sudanese parties to conflict, gave parties a “synopsis” of a draft agreement. AU Summit 7-15 June inaugurated ad-hoc high-level committee and former Malian President Alpha Oumar Konaré as AU high rep for S Sudan. Meanwhile, low-level conflict continued in W Equatoria and W Bahr el Ghazal, and on 28 June fighting resumed in Malakal. UN 30 June released human rights report documenting widespread rape and burning women alive; said “level of cruelty … suggests a depth of antipathy that exceeds political differences”.

Somalia

  |  1 Jul 2015

Unchanged

Somali federal parliament 6 June passed no confidence vote against Interim Juba Administration regional assembly, calling it illegal and unconstitutional. Vote welcomed in Digil/Mirifle (Rahanweyn) strongholds in Bay and Bakool regions who claimed Juba assembly selection favoured Ogaden and Marehan (Darood) clans; Somali Federal Govt (SFG) appointed ten-member ministerial committee to resolve impasse. Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama (ASWJ) militias 7 June seized Dhusamareb, capital of Galgaduud region, after govt-allied forces vacated positions. SFG attempts to persuade ASWJ to surrender town unsuccessful; ASWJ announced own process to establish administration for Mudug and Galgaduud regions. Al-Shabaab attacks and clashes with AMISOM/Somali forces continued including late June Al-Shabaab attack on Leego AMISOM base, Lower Shabelle, that reportedly killed some 40 peacekeepers, and 21 June attack on Somali intelligence training centre in Mogadishu. Suspected Al-Shabaab militants assassinated four clan elders accused of collaborating with govt. Somali militias clashed with Ethiopian police in Galgaduud on border with Ethiopia early June, over 45 killed; Ethiopian and Somali govts 7 June intervened to halt hostilities, signed agreement 7 June.

Kenya

  |  1 Jul 2015

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab late May and early June briefly seized several villages and mosques in remote locations in Mandara, Garissa and Lamu counties. Al-Shabaab attacks continued throughout month: 14 June attacked army post in Baure, Lamu county; at least two soldiers and eleven militants killed including senior Al-Shabaab commander and a British fighter. Suspected Al-Shabaab operatives 20 June killed Eyrib chief in Wajir town. Military convoys hit by IEDs in Ijara Garissa county and Baure Lamu county 13, 21 June, one officer injured. Five charged 8 June for involvement in April Al-Shabaab attack on Garissa university that left 148 dead. Two Tanzanians arrested 27 June in Migori on charges of recruiting for Al-Shabaab. Govt 27 June lifted curfew, imposed April, in NE and parts of coast; 24 June permitted thirteen Somali remittance companies to resume operations after licences suspended in April. Clan fighting re-erupted in Mandera county, some twenty killed.

Sudan

  |  1 Jul 2015

Unchanged

President Bashir inaugurated for 3rd term 3 June, formed new govt comprised primarily of trusted military and security figures and demoting or excluding several key figures from Islamic Movement including former FM Ali Karti. Karti replaced by pragmatist Ibrahim Ghandour, viewed by several diplomats as reformer. Former Janjaweed militia commander and leader of Darfurian Arab Mahameed clan Musa Hilal attended inauguration suggesting rapprochement with Khartoum. Govt’s “Decisive Summer” campaign against rebel groups in Darfur, Blue Nile and S Kordofan continued with growing contributions by paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Focus increasingly switching to S Kordofan and Blue Nile after April’s decisive RSF victory over Justice and Equality Movement in S Darfur. SPLM-N rebels 14 June claimed govt assault on Kalgom Blue Nile repulsed. UN 29 June extended UNAMID peacekeeping mandate for further year.

Uganda

  |  1 Jun 2015

Unchanged

Ruling National Resistance Movement member registration exercise began early May; complaints registration manipulated in favour of certain NRM candidates. Prominent Muslim cleric killed 21 May in Mbale.

South Sudan

  |  1 Jun 2015

Deteriorated

Month saw most serious clashes since Aug in Upper Nile and Unity states, and escalating tensions along Sudan-South Sudan border. Fighting broke out 27 April in Unity state capital Benitu and surrounding areas when govt forces attacked SPLM-IO-held areas. Clashes late April involving SPLA and Sudanese SPLM-N rebels in Pariang. Fighting broke out 21 April between govt troops and allied Shilluk group under command of SPLA Gen. Johnson Olony in Upper Nile state capital Malakal; over 10,000 Shilluk fled back to ethnic Shilluk territory, further 4,000 took shelter with UNMISS. IGAD 11 March announced formation of “IGAD-Plus” mechanism to expand peace talks, yet talks not taking place. Tensions with Sudan escalated: Sudan reportedly bombed several suspected Sudan Revolutionary Front areas in S Sudan’s Bahr El Ghazal region 8-11 April; Sudan President Bashir 29 April threatened to pursue SRF rebels in S Sudan territory.

Somalia

  |  1 Jun 2015

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab attacks continued: militants 24 May captured major town Janaale in Lower Shabelle 24 May after Somali forces vacated positions; 15 May briefly captured Awdegle and Mubarak towns in Lower Shabelle; killed local govt official 6 May in Mogadishu. Interim S-W State President Sharif Hassan 18 May survived assassination when convoy hit landmine in Lower Shabelle; Interim Jubaland Administration and AMISOM forces also targeted by landmines in Lower Juba. Attacks reported 4, 5 and 8 May around Bossasso, Puntland. 21 of 66 Puntland parliamentarians 11 May filed motion of no confidence against Puntland govt. Consultative meeting between Somalia Federal Government (SFG) and interim federal states held 1 May, resulted in plan to integrate govt-controlled militias and regional forces into national army. Cabinet 9 May endorsed members of Independent Electoral Commission, Boundaries and Federation Commission, and Judicial Service Commission. At least 35 reportedly killed late May in clashes near Ethiopia border between clan militia and Ethiopian paramilitary unit.

Kenya

  |  1 Jun 2015

Unchanged

Upsurge of communal violence in north: clashes on border between Baringo and Turkana counties 4 May left 67 dead; same day armed Samburu attacked Turkana village in Loiyangalani, killing two and injuring fifteen, seized large number of livestock; Turkana reprisal attack 5 May killed at least six. Al-Shabaab attacks across NE and along coast continued: Al-Shabaab militants in Lamu county 5 May attacked National Youth Service team and accompanying soldiers constructing new Kenya-Somalia border security fence; twenty suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen 13 May attacked police post near Dadaab, Garissa county; militants 19 May raided two mosques in Tumtish and Kabasalo villages in Ijara, Garissa county. Al-Shabaab 21 May seized Yumbis village for several hours; police 26 May clashed with Al-Shabaab in Yumbis, one policeman killed, four injured. U.S. Sec State Kerry and UNHCR chief António Guterres visited early May, Kerry pledged extra $45mn to UNHCR to assist voluntary refugee settlement.

Sudan

  |  1 Jun 2015

Unchanged

National Dialogue Committee comprising govt and govt-allied parties and “7+7” opposition groups met 10 May. Military offensive against SPLM-N in Blue Nile continued: UN resident coordinator Geert Cappelaere 27 May expressed concerns about significant civilian displacement including forced relocations, said humanitarian needs rapidly rising. President Bashir, Defence Minister Abdel Rahim Mohammed Hussein and intelligence service director Mohamed Atta travelled to al-Nakhara, S Darfur, following late-April defeat of JEM rebels in area; at least 30 reported killed, over 70 injured in renewed clashes mid-May between Rizeigat and Ma’aliya tribes in Abu Karinka, East Darfur; govt said UNAMID peacekeeping mission exit plans not affected since mandate does not include resolution of tribal conflicts.

Uganda

  |  30 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Security forces 6 April deployed in Agago and Amuru districts in north following violent escalation of local land conflicts, including intercommunal violence between Acholi and Langi displacing some 180 in Agago; and escalating tensions between Acholi and Madi in Amuru.

South Sudan

  |  30 Apr 2015

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Month saw most serious clashes since Aug in Upper Nile and Unity states, and escalating tensions along Sudan-South Sudan border. Fighting broke out 27 April in Unity state capital Benitu and surrounding areas when govt forces attacked SPLM-IO-held areas. Clashes late April involving SPLA and Sudanese SPLM-N rebels in Pariang. Fighting broke out 21 April between govt troops and allied Shilluk group under command of SPLA Gen. Johnson Olony in Upper Nile state capital Malakal; over 10,000 Shilluk fled back to ethnic Shilluk territory, further 4,000 took shelter with UNMISS. IGAD 11 March announced formation of “IGAD-Plus” mechanism to expand peace talks, yet talks not taking place. Tensions with Sudan escalated: Sudan reportedly bombed several suspected Sudan Revolutionary Front areas in S Sudan’s Bahr El Ghazal region 8-11 April; Sudan President Bashir 29 April threatened to pursue SRF rebels in S Sudan territory.

Somalia

  |  30 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab attacks continued including, in Mogadishu, 14 April attack on Ministry of Education that left at least seventeen dead including seven attackers; at least ten killed in bomb attack on restaurant 21 April; senior military officer assassinated in 23 April; former PM, two city council officials and senior prison officer assassinated 25-26 April. Sharp rise in attacks in Puntland: Al-Shabaab 5 April attacked two security checkpoints in Bossaso city; UNICEF staff transport attacked 20 April in Garowe killing at least nine. Kenyan jets 6 April bombed several Al-Shabaab camps in south. Formation of interim federal administrations in central Somalia made some progress amid continued opposition from local clans. State conference for Interim Central Administration commenced 16 April in Adado following objections from Dhusamareb elders over location; elders rejoined after Somalia Federal Govt President Hassan Sheikh’s 8 April declaration that Dhusamareb would be future Interim Central Administration’s capital. Selection of Interim Jubaland Administration parliament members concluded 15 April, marred by accusations 75-strong assembly stacked with current interim Jubaland President Madobe’s allies.

Kenya

  |  30 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab attack on university college in Garissa, eastern Kenya, 2 April left at least 148 dead including three police; came days after President Kenyatta dismissed UK, Australian and Canadian travel advisories warning of terrorist attacks on coast and in NE. Slow security forces’ response drew heavy criticism. Kenyatta vowed to clamp down on Al-Shabaab sympathisers and financiers operating in Kenya; accounts of 86 individuals, companies and NGOs frozen 8 April. Govt 12 April gave UN three-month ultimatum to close Dadaab refugee camp near Somalia border. Govt 14 April granted ten-day amnesty to radicalised youth seeking reintegration; later extended to fourteen days; Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims had requested 30-day timeframe. Ten suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen 17 April hijacked vehicle in Mandera; 23 April abducted and killed local chief Muktar Maalim Ibrahim. Top anti-corruption officials suspended late April following report accusing 175 politicians and high-ranking officials of corruption.

Sudan

  |  30 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Incumbent President Bashir won 13-16 April presidential election with 95.05% of vote amid widespread voter apathy, low turnout. Arab League, AU and IGAD observer missions all endorsed polls. EU 9 April criticised failure to initiate genuine national dialogue, said would not support elections; Troika (U.S., UK, Norway) 20 April denounced elections as not credible. Security forces violently dispersed anti-election protest in Khartoum 8-9 April; Human Rights Watch late- April accused govt of arresting and abusing opponents. Govt late April accused UNAMID of killing seven civilians in clashes in Kass, South Darfur 23-24 April; UNAMID denied accusations, said troops acted proportionally and in self-defence after two patrols were attacked. Growing tensions with S Sudan (see S Sudan): govt 27 April accused JEM of crossing border from S Sudan’s Western Bahr El Ghazal to attack Darfur and N Kordofan, threatened to destroy rebel bases in S Sudan.

Uganda

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Security forces 5 March raided mosques, two primary schools in Busia, arrested 34 Muslims with alleged links to Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels. Police 3 March raided mosque in Budaka district, arrested two ADF suspects. Further eleven suspected rebels arrested during month. Security officials 26 March said they will increase security at key locations following U.S. embassy warning. Senior prosecutor in 2010 Kampala bombings case killed 30 March in suspected assassination.

South Sudan

  |  1 Apr 2015

Deteriorated

Serious uptick in fighting accompanied 6 March suspension of IGAD-led peace negotiations after what were termed “final talks” between govt and SPLM-IO ended without agreement. IGAD chair called for future mediation led by expanded “IGAD-plus” group possibly including AU, China, EU and “troika” (U.S., UK, Norway); no date set for resumption of talks, govt 31 March said it will oppose troika’s participation in negotiations. UNSC 24 March threatened sanctions against “senior individuals”. Military operations increased: govt 6 March launched coordinated offensives in Upper Nile capturing Wadakona and advancing toward SPLA-IO HQ in Pagak; skirmishes took place in Unity state; SPLA-IO 26 March attacked Ayod in Jonglei, clashes ongoing. Govt 24 Feb offered amnesty to SPLA-IO members until 31 March. Parliament 24 March extended President Kiir and elected officials’ terms by three years.

Somalia

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab attacks continued: eight reportedly killed including five militants in 12 March attack on new Interim South West State presidential building in Baidoa; clan elder assassinated in Beledweyn town 6 March. Al-Shabaab 11 March captured Wanlaweyn town, 13 March briefly occupied Jalalaqsi town in Hiraan region. At least 24 killed in Al-Shabaab attack on hotel in Mogadishu 27 March. Two suspected Al-Shabaab camps in Torato and Ambereso, Lower Shabelle, hit by drone strikes 10 March; Al-Shabaab operative allegedly involved in Sept 2013 Westgate Mall attack reportedly killed by drone strike 12 March near Bardheere, Gedo region. Somalia Federal Government (SFG) and Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa (ASWJ) Sufi militia agreed to ceasefire after Feb clashes in Guriel and Dhusamareb, Galgaduud region; Ethiopian AMISOM forces 24 March took control of area. Al-Shabaab attacks in Puntland continued, including attack on army patrol in Bossaso city 2 March. Armed gunman 30 March attacked Juba Intelligence HQ; multiple suspects arrested. Puntland President Gaas 6 March signed MOU on regional cooperation with President of Interim Juba Administration Madobe – on natural resources, finalisation of provisional federal constitution, and National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC). Jubaland parliament inaugurated 7 March amid continued opposition from clans in Gedo region.

Kenya

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab 17 March detonated IED in Mandera town killing three Kenya Revenue Authority officials; attack occurred three days after visit by high-level national security officials including newly-appointed Inspector General of Police. Mandera county governor’s convoy attacked 13 March, four killed. Three killed in suspected Al-Shabaab attack in Wajir 17 March. Interior Ministry 23 March announced plan to build barriers along border with Somalia in bid to stem Al-Shabaab attacks. Mombasa county officials 9 March agreed to establish community policing unit in collaboration with local youths to deal with rising insecurity; followed early-March reports of youth radicalisation at Mlango wa Papa mosque. Senior police officer killed 26 March in suspected Islamist revenge attack in Mombasa, 52 suspects detained.

Sudan

  |  1 Apr 2015

Unchanged

Fighting in S Kordofan continued: SPLM-N early March claimed attack on Kalogi, north of state capital Kadugli; Sudanese Armed forces (SAF) claimed attack repulsed. SPLM-N chief Yasir Arman 14 March said attack was defensive, denied earlier SPLM-N claims that attacks were aimed at disrupting April elections. SPLM-N 28 March clashed with SAF in Habeela, S Kordofan. Violence and insecurity in Darfur continued, mainly in eastern Jebel Marra area, leaving several dead. Sudan and S Sudan 30 March resumed talks on disputed Abyei region; ruling National Congress Party 29 March rejected invitation to pre-dialogue meeting. Sudan 26 March confirmed participation in Saudi-led military campaign against Yemen’s Huthi insurgency. Sudan 23 March signed Nile agreement (see Ethiopia).

Uganda

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Uganda and Sudan 9 Feb agreed to form joint technical security mechanism: Uganda announced it had expelled Sudanese rebels, reportedly Sudan will cooperate in apprehending remaining LRA rebels believed to be hiding in Darfur. Dr Aggrey Kiyingi, linked to Federal Alliance rebels reportedly connected to Allied Democratic Force rebel group, 12 Feb announced he will challenge President Museveni in 2016 elections.

South Sudan

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

IGAD-led negotiations ended 2 Feb without peace deal; President Kiir and former VP and SPLM-IO leader Machar recommitted to ceasefire, signed document outlining areas of agreement/disagreement regarding proposed transitional govt. Disputes remain over structure of executive. Delayed negotiations began 23 Feb; Kiir reversed previous commitment to attend; 5 March deadline still remains amid scepticism deal will be reached. Small clashes continued in Unity and Upper Nile states. Murle South Sudan Democratic Army-Cobra Faction (SSDA-CF) splinter group 13 Feb defected from govt, pledged allegiance to SPLA-IO. UN confirmed gunmen 14 Feb abducted at least 89 boys, now training as child soldiers, from Wau Shilluk near Malakal, Upper Nile state; thousands of children already fighters. Defence minister 3 Feb signed new Status of Forces agreement with Ugandan counterpart; Ugandan troops may remain in S Sudan another four months. Govt 13 Feb suspended elections scheduled for June for two years as negotiations continue. Kiir 24 Feb issued executive order reversing dismissal of senior party members.

Somalia

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Parliament 9 Feb approved PM Abdirashidi Ali Shamarke’s third proposed cabinet list, ending months of govt paralysis following ouster of former PM Abdiweli early Dec. Al-Shabaab attacks continued throughout country including: 25 killed, 40 wounded in 20 Feb suicide attack on Mogadishu hotel; mortar rounds fired at presidential compound in Mogadishu 26 Feb; two army bases in Lower Shabelle region attacked 10 Feb. Al-Shabaab 9 Feb killed MP Abdullahi Qayed Barre in Mogadishu, 15 Feb killed govt official. Joint AMISOM/Somali National Army (SNA) campaign against Al-Shabaab continued including 3 Feb Kenyan airstrikes against several Al-Shabaab camps in Yontoy, Lower Juba region. Puntland forces 13 Feb clashed with Al-Shabaab in Madashoor area, claimed sixteen militants killed. Puntland officials accused Somaliland of supporting Al-Shabaab factions in Golis mountains after Al-Shabaab 3 Feb attacked police station in Bossaso; 7 Feb attacked home of senior Puntland police official: Somaliland denied accusations. Clashes erupted 10 and 25 Feb between SNA and Sufi militia Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa (ASWJ) in Guriel, Galgaduug region, leaving at least fifteen dead. U.S. 24 Feb nominated first ambassador to Somalia since 1991, to be based in Nairobi.

Kenya

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

MP shot dead in Nairobi 7 Feb, along with two bodyguards and driver. Five suspected Mombasa Republican Council recruits arrested 25 Feb in Kisauni, Mombasa County. Mombasa’s Minaa mosque, closed by govt 19 Nov following police raid, reopened 12 Feb with interim imam and committee following settlement between govt officials and local Muslims.

Sudan

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Fighting continued in S Kordofan: SPLM-N claimed al-Jineziya, Angartu and Um Turuq-Turuq taken 14-16 Feb. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 12 Feb claimed SPLM-N attack on recently recaptured areas repelled. Election campaigning began 24 Feb amid continued crackdown on civil society and media. Opposition National Consensus Forces umbrella group, several other opposition parties and Muslim Brotherhood announced boycott of elections; Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) only mainstream opposition party not boycotting polls. Civilian opposition, civil society and armed rebel signatories to 4 Dec“Sudan Call” met in Berlin 25-27 Feb to discuss peace, national dialogue: govt not included in talks. New chief of UN forces in disputed Abyei enclave 17 Feb called for resumption of dialogue between Sudan and South Sudan; UNSC 26 Feb renewed mandate of UN mission to Abyei, called for resumption of Abyei Joint Oversight Commission (AJOC) discussions on June 2011 demilitarisation agreement. AJOC co-chair 13 Feb announced AJOC meeting late Feb. Intercommunal clashes increased in area amid rising tensions between Misseriya nomads and sedentary Ngok Dinka.

Uganda

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Following late Dec killings of two Muslim clerics, third cleric survived assassination attempt 3 Jan near Kampala; police claimed killings reprisals by rebel Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) against former supporters; eighteen charged late Jan.

South Sudan

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Multiple mediation processes ongoing, leading to multiple, uncoordinated agreements and processes. Three SPLM factions (govt, SPLM-IO, and separate negotiating group “SPLM 7”) 21 Jan signed symbolic agreement to “reunify” following talks mediated by Tanzania; China held talks between govt and SPLM-IO in Khartoum 12 Jan. Delayed IGAD summit postponed to 31 Jan; President Kiir and former VP and SPLM-IO leader Machar 29 Jan met in Addis Ababa to discuss terms of possible agreement. Fighting continued in Unity, Upper Nile states. SPLM-IO accused govt troops, police, pro-govt militia of series of attacks; govt counter-claimed, IGAD investigating. Warring parties clashed in Unity oil fields 5 Jan. Clashes continued in Lakes state, including attempt on life of caretaker governor; casualties now higher in Lakes conflict than in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity.

Somalia

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

New PM Omar Abdirashidi Ali Shamarke 27 Jan announced his new cabinet list; withdrew previous proposed list following opposition by parliament ahead of scheduled vote. Al-Shabaab attacks continued: two killed in 10 Jan IED attack in Kismayo, Lower Juba; one killed 14 Jan in explosion targeting soldiers in Bossaso, Bari; five killed 22 Jan in bomb attack outside Mogadishu hotel hosting meeting of Turkish officials, day ahead of visit by Turkish PM Erdoğan. Al-Shabaab blockade of towns in south and central Somalia previously liberated in 2014 AMISOM-Somali National Army (SNA) offensive continued. AMISOM-SNA 23 Jan captured Bulo Jadid, Bulo Yusuf and El Jarmed villages in Bakol region. Five killed 27 Jan in clash between Kenyan forces and Al-Shabaab in Yontoy, Lower Juba region. Over twenty killed in clan clashes 21 Jan in Burdhinle and Hada-Ogle, Hiraan region. Several militants and four civilians reportedly killed 31 Jan in airstrike targeting Al-Shabaab in Dinsoor town, Bay region.

Kenya

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

High Court 2 Jan temporarily dismissed eight clauses of controversial Security Act, passed 18 Dec, following petition by opposition coalition and civil society. Christian priest shot dead 11 Jan by unknown gunmen in Mombasa. Army 14 Jan announced five suspected Al-Shabaab militants and one soldier killed when militants attacked army truck in Lamu county. Suspect linked to Dec Mandera quarry attack arrested late Jan. Tensions over county borders continued, one killed 9 Jan in clash between Maasai and Kisii along Kisii-Narok border.

Sudan

  |  2 Feb 2015

Deteriorated

Renewed clashes between army and rebels in Darfur and S Kordofan following Dec suspension of AUHIP talks between govt and Sudan Revolutionary Front member organisations, including reported aerial bombardment 27 Jan which destroyed several villages in Golo, Central Darfur. UN report released late Jan said over 3,000 villages destroyed in targeted attacks on civilians in Darfur in last year. Parliament 4 Jan approved eighteen amendments to 2005 interim constitution including presidential appointment and dismissal of state governors, expanded role for intelligence services, and inclusion of 2011 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). Latter amendment seen as reinforcing govt’s demand that DDPD serve as framework for talks with Darfur rebels. Preparations for April presidential and legislative elections ongoing: electoral body 15 Jan extended deadline for applications to 22 Jan; Democratic Unionist Party announced participation; President Bashir 11 Jan officially submitted candidacy on ruling National Congress Party platform.

Somalia

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged
PM Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed 6 Dec lost parliamentary no-confidence vote, ending four weeks of political uncertainty; former Transitional Federal Government PM Omar Abdirashidi Ali Shamarke named premier 17 Dec and approved by parliament 24 Dec. Al-Shabaab fighters appear concentrated in regions bordering Kenya following recent AMISOM and Somali National Army offensives in south-central Somalia; Al-Shabaab 9 Dec retook Gadoon-dawe village, Gedo region, despite Kenyan cross-border attacks. Al-Shabaab attacks continued country-wide including: fifteen killed, 30 injured 5 Dec in bomb attack on Baidoa restaurant; at least ten soldiers killed in attack on military base in Warmahan, Lower Shabelle, 15 Dec; Burhakaba District Commissioner and bodyguard killed in ambush near Baledogle, Lower Shabelle 6 Dec; eight Al-Shabaab gunmen 25 Dec infiltrated main AMISOM base in Mogadishu, Halane, killing three soldiers and civilian contractor. Senior Al-Shabaab leader commander Zakariya Ismail Hersi captured late Dec in Elwak, Gedo region; U.S. airstrike near Sakoow, Middle Juba killed top Al-Shabaab leader 29 Dec. Tensions over formation of interim federal administrations continued: govt troops 13 Dec clashed with pro-govt Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a (ASWJ) militias in Dhusamareb, capital of Galgadud region. New president of Interim South West Administration Sharif Hassan inaugurated 3 Dec, promised inclusive administration and reconciliation.

Kenya

  |  5 Jan 2015

Deteriorated
Suspected Al-Shabaab militants 2 Dec killed 36 non-Muslim quarry workers outside Mandera town; hundreds fled town after attack with some seeking refuge in nearby military bases. One killed, thirteen injured in IED explosion at club in Wajir; IED found at Gilgil army barracks, Nakuru county 9 Dec; police 15 Dec discovered IEDs in Juja and Pangani areas of Nairobi. Some fifteen unidentified men 13 Dec attacked police base in Kilifi county; police officer killed, two injured, weapons and ammunition stolen; Islamist militants 20 Dec opened fire on passenger bus near Witu, Lamu county. President Kenyatta 19 Dec signed contested anti-terror bill into law; U.S. expressed concern over freedom of assembly and media; some 510 NGOs deregistered including fifteen accused of links with terrorism. Opposition coalition 23 Dec filed court challenge to overturn law. Leader of secessionist Mombasa Republican Council arrested 31 Dec, charged with holding illegal meeting. Turkana residents 15 Dec barricaded Kodwar-Kitale road near Kainuk town in protest at attacks by Pokot bandits. One killed, properties burned 7 Dec during intercommunal violence between Nandi and Kabra in Kakamega county. ICC 5 Dec withdrew crimes against humanity charges against President Kenyatta.

Uganda

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Former PM Amama Mbabazi ousted as Sec Gen of Ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) along with several other party officials 13 Dec; move further bolstered President Museveni as sole NRM presidential candidate for 2016 elections. Mbabazi late Dec filed court challenge to removal. Shia Muslim community leader killed 25 Dec by unknown gunmen, Muslim cleric shot dead 29 Dec in Mayuge district. Clashes over land between Congolese nationals and Bunyoro Kingdom loyalists in Hoima county 4 Dec.

South Sudan

  |  5 Jan 2015

Deteriorated
Peace talks reached standstill in face of intransigence from both sides over details of power-sharing deal, while fighting continued despite Nov recommitment to cessation of hostilities agreement. SPLM-IO conference early Dec passed resolution agreeing to share power with Juba govt on condition PM has full executive powers. Conference rejected proposed positions for VP and deputy VP; agreed to federal system of 21 states; established for first time military command structure; also agreed to separate its political and military wings. Ongoing skirmishes in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity. Push at UNSC to impose sanctions on warring parties 9 Dec. reached impasse over U.S. opposition. National Election Council 1 Dec presented election calendar, insisted elections would be held in 2015; Council of Ministers approved $517mn election budget.

Sudan

  |  5 Jan 2015

Risk Alert

Govt-rebel talks failed as govt continued to reject comprehensive approach, raising fears of renewed military offensives. AUHIP-mediated talks between govt and Darfur rebels adjourned 4 Dec; parallel talks between govt and SPLM-N rebels focused on Blue Nile and S Kordofan halted 9 Dec amid increasing violence in S Kordofan. Civilian opposition groups, civil society representatives and armed rebel groups 4 Dec signed “Sudan Call” agreement on preconditions for joining National Dialogue; govt warned political leaders would “pay a price” for alliance with rebels; two Sudan Call signatories, opposition National Consensus Forces chairman Farouk Abu Issa and human rights activist Amin Mekki Madani, arrested 6 Dec along with several other civil society members. Increased govt pressure on UNAMID: two UN officials expelled late-month; UNSG Ban said expulsions “unacceptable”. ICC 12 Dec suspended investigation into Darfur atrocities citing limited resources, UNSC deadlock.

Sudan

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Govt and SPLM-N 15 Nov endorsed AUHIP draft framework agreement on conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, including roadmap for participation of rebels in national dialogue, general elections and transitional period. Talks adjourned 17 Nov to give parties time to study draft agreement. Fighting nevertheless resumed in Blue Nile 24 Nov, both sides claimed responsibility for attacks. Parallel talks with Darfur rebels started 23 Nov, for the first time under AUHIP mediation in Addis Ababa; mediators hoping to achieve “synchronised” cessation of hostilities to merge both processes into national dialogue but govt again rejected idea, continued to insist on separate talks with Darfur rebels, called for them to join piecemeal Doha peace deal. President Bashir 30 Nov vowed to try Sadiq al-Mahdi, leader of opposition National Umma Party, for alliance with Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) rebel coalition. Local Radio Dabanga 2 Nov alleged mass rape of 200 girls by Sudanese Armed Forces in Tabit, North Darfur late Oct. Govt blocked UNAMID investigation in Tabit until 9 Nov. UNAMID 10 Nov said no evidence of rape but leaked confidential report revealed investigation monitored by Sudanese Armed Forces, witnesses intimidated. Govt 21 Nov refused UNSG and UNSC demands for new UNAMID visit to Tabit, asked UNAMID to prepare exit strategy, 26 Nov ordered closure of its human rights department.

Somalia

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Political infighting between President Hassan Sheikh and PM Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed continued following PM’s 25 Oct attempted cabinet reshuffle: over 140 parliamentarians launched no-confidence vote against PM but internal disruptions to parliament prevented vote, stalemate ongoing. Infighting began to affect South West state formation process: PM 1 Nov recalled ministerial delegation tasked to monitor process, parliamentary speaker and interior minister at odds over mid-Nov election of Sharif Hassan as interim leader of SW state; Hassan’s election prompted unrest in region, one protester died. At least fifteen reported killed 28-29 Nov in inter-clan clashes in Galgaduud, central Somalia.

South Sudan

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Renewed fighting between govt and SPLA-IO despite 7 Nov recommitment to peace deal, at which parties recommitted to cessation of hostilities under pressure from regional body IGAD, Troika (U.S., UK and Norway) and China. IGAD threatened sanctions if ceasefire broken. Talks due to resume in late Nov but now postponed “indefinitely”; no IGAD sanctions at 25 Nov expiry of two-week deadline set by IGAD for warring parties to reach power-sharing deal. SPLM-IO 10 Nov proposed elimination of VP position as part of transitional govt, seen by many as tactic to prolong negotiations; govt refused request. Parties late Nov traded accusations over reported attacks in Jonglei. UNMISS mandate extended 24 Nov with few changes. Canada 1 Nov imposed sanctions against rebel commander Peter Gatdet and presidential guard commander Marial Chanuong for violations of 23 Jan 2014 cessation of hostilities deal.

Kenya

  |  1 Dec 2014

Deteriorated

Violence in north and coastal regions increased: Al-Shabaab 22 Nov attacked bus in Mandera, killing 28. UNSC condemned attack, govt 23 Nov said over 100 militants killed in two operations in Somalia targeting planners. Some twenty armed youths 3 Nov attacked Nyali military barracks, Mombasa; six youths shot dead, one arrested. Similar attack launched same day on administration police camp in Malindi. Four mosques closed early Nov, reopened 27 Nov, after raids by police and arrest of hundreds of youths. Nineteen police officers killed, 22 firearms stolen by suspected armed Pokot bandits in Kapendo area of Baringo county 1 Nov; Kenya Defence Forces deployed in joint disarmament operation with police, recovered stolen firearms but banditry continued. IED explosion in Mandera injured three 5 Nov; IED explosion wounded one in Garissa 31 Nov. Policeman shot, another injured in suspected Al-Shabaab attack near Dadaab refugee camp 29 Nov.

Sudan

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Parallel govt-SPLM-N, govt-Darfur rebel group talks, postponed by AUHIP to 25 Oct, still delayed; govt said talks delayed as negotiators from ruling National Congress Party (NCP) preparing for party’s general convention, others travelling; SPLM-N 27 Oct said AUHIP extended invitation to resume talks 12 Nov. NCP general convention held 20-25 Oct; incumbent President Bashir selected as party’s presidential candidate, new consultative council elected. National Electoral Commission, NCP refused to postpone April 2015 general elections. Bashir chaired second meeting of national dialogue committee 19 Oct, discussed roadmap for national dialogue, Addis Ababa framework agreement, expansion of committee’s mandate. 83 political parties agreed to participate but opposition National Consensus Forces, armed Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) continued to demand end of war before dialogue. Several opposition parties including National Umma Party signed Teiba Charter calling for overthrow of Bashir regime. Sudan Armed Forces 10 Oct announced plans for major offensive on SRF in S Kordofan. Two UNAMID peacekeepers killed in attack by unidentified assailants in N Darfur.

Somalia

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Joint Somali National Army (SNA)/AMISOM operation 3 Oct liberated Adale, Middle Shabelle; strategic port town and last Al-Shabaab coastal stronghold Barawe, Lower Shabelle, 6 Oct. AMISOM troops also advanced toward Jilib, Middle Juba; Puntland security forces 1 Oct dislodged Al-Shabaab from long-standing stronghold in Galgala mountains. UNSG Ban visited 29 Oct, congratulated forces for advances against Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab attacks continued across country despite losses including: at least ten killed, fifteen injured in restaurant bombing in Mogadishu 12 Oct; seven killed near Beledweyne, Hiraan region, after SNA and Al-Shabaab clashed 21 Oct. Three-day dialogue in Garowe between Somali Federal Govt (SFG) and Puntland administration resulted in 12-point agreement announced 14 Oct. Political infighting between President Hassan Sheikh and PM Sheikh Ahmed emerged after president 25 Oct rejected PM’s cabinet reshuffle.

Kenya

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Attacks targeting security officers and county govt continued in Mandera County: Governor’s motorcade hit by roadside bomb 15 Oct, one injured; three civilians injured 30 Oct in bomb explosion targeting security officers in Mandera town. Intercommunal violence re-erupted in north: twenty, including seven security officers, killed 29 Oct in clashes between security forces and bandits along Baringo, Turkana counties border. Former lawmaker Guyo Halake, involved in brokering peace among local clans, killed 22 Oct in Moyale. Kwale Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) chairman Omar Mwamnuadzi arrested 15 Oct along with eleven youths, charged with holding illegal gathering and planning to breach peace; security officials continue to link MRC to June attacks in Mpeketoni, Lamu county, claimed by Al-Shabaab. Five suspected bombers attempting to cross border from Ethiopia killed by Kenyan military mid-Oct; police officer killed 18 Oct by gunmen in Liboi, near Somalia border. One killed, eight injured in clashes in Kakuma refugee camp 26 Oct. President Uhuru Kenyatta 8 Oct appeared at ICC.

South Sudan

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged Risk Alert

Warring parties preparing major offensives as hardliners appear determined to settle civil conflict through war: fighting continued throughout month, SPLA-IO 28 Oct launched major attacks on Bentiu prompting govt to threaten withdrawal from peace talks. UNSG Ban 30 Oct condemned renewed violence, urged parties to participate in negotiations, reach agreement on transitional arrangements. SPLM factions had late-Oct signed framework agreement on SPLM reform in Tanzania and accepted joint responsibility for war. Violence among Dinka clans and between civilians and SPLA following a forced disarmament campaign left hundreds dead in Lakes state. National Assembly 8 Oct passed controversial National Security Services bill; allows for arrests without warrants, shields officers from accountability, provides wide powers of surveillance and authority. MPs from ruling and opposition parties staged walkout after request for 72 hours to review revised bill rejected by Speaker of Assembly.

Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged Resolution Opportunity

Armed opposition Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), political opposition National Umma Party (NUP), National Dialogue 7+7 Committee 4 Sept signed statement of principles on inclusive national dialogue under auspices of African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), breaking months of deadlock. President Bashir, ruling National Congress Party (NCP) welcomed agreement; authorities 3 Sept released Sudanese Congress Party (SCP) Sec Gen Samia Kiir, arrested 11 July; 15 Sept released SCP head Ibrahim El Sheikh, detained since 8 June. National Consensus Forces (NCF) continued to boycott national dialogue; representative Mohamed Hassan Babiker detained in Khartoum 12 Sept. AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) 15 Sept praised positive developments, endorsed AUHIP-led meeting of parties and sequenced cessation of hostilities in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur; urged international community to consider sanctions lift, debt relief, economic support. AUHIP head Mbeki to lead meetings with govt, rebel groups in Oct; but Bashir 27 Sept said NUP leader al-Mahdi to return to Sudan only after rescinding Aug Paris Declaration, 30 Sept rejected SRF participation in talks, ruled out comprehensive solution to conflicts. UNAMID and joint chief mediator for Darfur Mohamed Ibn Chambas to step down, welcomed Mbeki’s leadership in mediation.

Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged Resolution Opportunity

Armed opposition Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), political opposition National Umma Party (NUP), National Dialogue 7+7 Committee 4 Sept signed statement of principles on inclusive national dialogue under auspices of African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), breaking months of deadlock. President Bashir, ruling National Congress Party (NCP) welcomed agreement; authorities 3 Sept released Sudanese Congress Party (SCP) Sec Gen Samia Kiir, arrested 11 July; 15 Sept released SCP head Ibrahim El Sheikh, detained since 8 June. National Consensus Forces (NCF) continued to boycott national dialogue; representative Mohamed Hassan Babiker detained in Khartoum 12 Sept. AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) 15 Sept praised positive developments, endorsed AUHIP-led meeting of parties and sequenced cessation of hostilities in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur; urged international community to consider sanctions lift, debt relief, economic support. AUHIP head Mbeki to lead meetings with govt, rebel groups in Oct; but Bashir 27 Sept said NUP leader al-Mahdi to return to Sudan only after rescinding Aug Paris Declaration, 30 Sept rejected SRF participation in talks, ruled out comprehensive solution to conflicts. UNAMID and joint chief mediator for Darfur Mohamed Ibn Chambas to step down, welcomed Mbeki’s leadership in mediation.

Uganda

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab threat intensified following leader’s death in Somalia [see Somalia]: police 13 Sept foiled alleged terror attack in Kampala, seizing explosives, suicide vests; increased security measures; U.S. same day warned citizens to seek shelter; ten charged 24 Sept with terror-related offenses. President Museveni 18 Sept dismissed PM and potential presidential rival Amama Mbabazi, appointed Ruhakana Rugunda. At least 7 killed in clashes over land, cattle on Ugandan-South Sudanese border 19 Sept, sparked by demonstrations in Ugandan border town of Moyo; authorities of both countries 26 Sept agreed on joint border patrols.

South Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Fresh fighting erupted around oil facilities in Upper Nile’s Renk County 18 Sept. IGAD-led talks resumed 22 Sept following discredited Aug peace deal. Despite agreement on formation of transitional govt, President Kiir 2 Sept began preparations for 2015 general elections. SPLM-IO 22 Sept announced opening office in Kampala; delegation 20 Sept visited Beijing for bilateral talks with Chinese govt; China 21 Sept halted arms sales to govt; 25 Sept confirmed to send 700 troops to UNMISS for civilian protection later this year, particularly around oil installations. U.S. 18 Sept extended sanctions to SPLA Major General Santino Deng, SPLA-IO Major General James Koang Chuol for prolonging conflict. Authorities 16 Sept announced plan to ban foreign aid workers by 15 Oct, to be replaced by nationals; 17 Sept rescinded order.

Somalia

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Offensive against Al-Shabaab continued: leader Ahmed Abdi Godane killed 1 Sept in U.S. drone strike in Sablale district; Sheikh Ahmad Umar appointed as successor 6 Sept. AMISOM 3 Sept captured town of Jalalaqsi, Hiraan; 33 militants killed in 12 Sep AMISOM attack on Al-Shabaab camps in Lagta Berta near Badhadhe, Lower Juba Region; joint AMISOM/SNA operation in Galgadud region 29 Sept re-captured several localities in El-Bur district. 45-day amnesty offered 3 Sept to al-Shabaab militants who would reject violence. HRW 8 Sept released report documenting sexual abuse by AMISOM forces; UN, U.S. called for investigation. Al-Shabaab attacks continued: at least 14 killed in suicide attack targeting AMISOM convoy in Mogadishu 8 Sept; senior Somali security official killed 13 Sept by Al-Shabaab gunmen in Mogadishu. Six pirates killed 25 Sept in gunfight, reportedly over ransom allegedly paid for release of German-U.S. journalist held hostage since 2012. Former warlord Barre Hirale 16 Sept withdrew from Juba peace process conference. SW3 and SW6 reconciliation conference 14 Sept opened in Baidoa, Bay region. President of Galmudug region 22 Sept sent letter to Somali Federal Govt (SFG) and international community protesting against Puntland’s decision to close down newly built airstrip south of Galkayo.

Kenya

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged

Insecurity in Mandera county escalated despite calls on rival clans to stop clashes: one killed in attack along Elway-Rhamu road 7 Sept; two killed in raid on Darkale village 11 Sept; govt official killed 18 Sept in grenade attack in Mandera town; three bodies found 21 Sept in Ashabitu area. Govt 4 Sept announced enhanced security measures. Al-Shabaab threat continued; two govt officials killed by gunmen in Shamu 1 Sept; hand grenades thrown at food kiosk in Wajir 18 Sept; one killed by unknown assailants in Garissa town 19 Sept. Authorities 12 Sept appointed new intelligence chief Major General Philip Kameru. Suspected militant killed 14 Sept in police raid in Bondeni area, Mombasa; 2 German citizens detained 9 Sept for alleged Al-Shabaab membership; 2 Iranians detained 19 Sept, accused of plotting attacks. President Kenyatta 21 Sept announced Kenyan troops to remain deployed in Somalia until stability restored. ICC prosecutor 5 Sept requested adjournment of case against Kenyatta, citing lack of evidence due to govt’s lack of cooperation. Kenyatta 7 Sept asked Jubilee coalition governors backing constitutional referendum to resign.

Kenya

  |  1 Sep 2014

Deteriorated

Clan violence in the northeast intensified: Kenyan Red Cross reported at least 77 killed in clashes between Degodia and Garre in Mandera county late Aug. Lamu county remained tense: 4 kidnapped 20 Aug by gunmen in Bodhai, Lamu East, 3 later released, 1 killed; curfew period extended by one month 21 Aug. President Kenyatta 1 August ordered repossession of 500,000 acres of Lamu county land irregularly allocated to 22 private entities. Al-Shabaab militants 9 Aug injured 2 police officers in attack on Fino police station. Unknown armed group 4 Aug attacked Mandera county govt offices. Suspected Al-Shabaab militia 18 Aug attacked the Bodhei Police Post in Garissa County, burnt vehicle and 2 houses. 16 governors aligned with Jubilee coalition 21 Aug withdrew support for referendum on devolution.

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CrisisWatch N°141

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