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CrisisWatch Database

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South Sudan

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Armed conflict between govt and SPLM/A-in-Opposition continued despite Jan ceasefire agreement, including fierce clashes over Malakal late month. Second round of talks between govt and SPLM/A-in-Opposition led by former VP Riek Machar ended with no breakthrough: govt continued to demand return of 7 released detainees to Juba for trial; opposition continue to demand withdrawal of Ugandan and others foreign forces. Third round of talks opened 26 March with both govt and opposition threatening boycotts; parties unable to agree on Declaration of Principles; IGAD 31 March requested suspension of talks for 1 month. IGAD 13 March approved Protection and Deterrent Force (PDF), though mandate and composition still unclear, may include Uganda. Security officials in Lakes State 6 March intercepted 11 UN trucks transporting UNMISS firearms and uniforms; govt accused UNMISS of plotting to arm opposition; VP James Wani Igga 10 March led protest against UNMISS in Juba, called for resignation of UN SRSG and UNMISS head Hilde Johnson. EU and 10 states 28 March issued statement reiterating support for UNMISS, condemning obstruction by govt and opposition forces. UNOCHA 29 March reported over 1 million displaced by conflict so far.

Kenya

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

Intercommunal clashes increased: at least 5 killed, hundreds displaced 7 March by clashes between Kalenjin and Luo along Kericho-Kisumu county border; Borana and Somali herders clashed in series of retaliatory attacks over watering points in Isiolo county. 6 killed 31 March in suspected grenade attacks in Nairobi’s Eastleigh suburb. Govt 25 March ordered urban-based Somali refugees to move into designated refugee camps citing “emergency security challenges” following several attacks by Al-Shabaab militants. Security services 17 March intercepted vehicle carrying 2 bombs allegedly heading for govt installation in Mombasa; 2 arrested. Suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen 14 March attacked police camp in Mandera near border, 1 police killed; gunmen 13 March opened fire on police reservist near Mandera roadblock, 1 civilian killed. Gunmen 23 March stormed church in Mombasa, killed 6; 2 suspects in attack killed by police in gunfight 28 March. ICC 31 March delayed trial of President Kenyatta to 7 Oct.

Uganda

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

U.S. late March increased military help in hunt for LRA leader Joseph Kony; sent U.S. military aircraft and additional Special Forces.

Somalia

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

AMISOM and Somali Federal Govt (SFG) forces’ offensive against Al-Shabaab continued; 9 strongholds seized 13-26 March in Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Galgadud, Lower and Middle Shabelle regions; 20 soldiers killed 18 March in suicide bomb attack in Buuloburto town, Hiiran region. Al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Godane in 9 March video message urged Somalis to wage jihad against foreign troops. Al-Shabaab 28 March executed 3 alleged SFG spies in Barawe town, Lower Shabelle. Puntand President Gas 5 March called for AMISOM assistance to secure southern borders from fleeing Al-Shabaab forces; Al-Shabaab attack 17 March killed senior Puntland defence forces commander in Galgala, near Bossaso. Tensions over formation of new federal state in central Somalia continued: 6-region conference selected president 3 March; 3-region conference held in Baidoa 27 March; another 2-region conference in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, selected president of “Shabelle State” 10 March. SFG, UN, AU recognised 3-region “South West State’’ encompassing Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool as only legitimate process. Unidentified gunmen executed 8 members of Shabelle State delegation 23 March near Burhakaba, Bay region. UN SRSG Nicholas Kay 11 March briefed UNSC on deteriorating security.

Sudan

  |  1 Apr 2014

Unchanged

President Bashir 14 March met with Islamist opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) leader Hassan al-Turabi, agreed to accelerate preparations for national dialogue; National Umma Party (NUP) leader Sadiq al-Mahdi also accepted dialogue. Ruling National Congress Party (NCP) 30 March announced 58 parties agreed to dialogue. National Consensus Forces (NCF) coalition, of which PCP and NUP both part, 15 March issued “Shambat Declaration” rejecting dialogue unless, among other demands, political detainees released, wars in peripheries ended, laws restricting freedoms lifted. AUHIP-mediated talks with SPLM-N remained stalled. Renewed violence in Darfur; UN estimates some 100,000 civilians displaced since early 2014, 26 March said Khartoum had suspended refugee aid program in E Sudan. Following 7 March meeting with head of AU Commission, Darfur rebel groups claimed to have secured AU support for national dialogue to resolve armed conflicts; AU has not confirmed. Economic restrictions imposed 28 Feb by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain began to take effect.

South Sudan

  |  1 Mar 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Violence escalated ahead of rainy season despite 23 Jan ceasefire with reports of atrocities on both sides; tens of thousands fled fighting. Second round of talks between govt and “SPLM/A-in-Oppostion”, including “SPLM 7” released from detention last month, have not begun; SPLM/A-in-Opposition leader and former VP Riek Machar reiterated calls for release of 4 remaining political detainees currently charged with treason, withdrawal of Ugandan forces. Govt and SPLM/A-in-Opposition forces continued to clash; SPLM/A-in-Opposition 21 Feb took control of Malakal; currently moving towards oil-producing areas in Upper Nile. Govt increasingly fiscally unstable, threatening non-payment of salaries to soldiers. UNMISS late Feb reported civilians targeted by both sides; UN OCHA said 740,000 displaced by conflict, FAO issued famine warning. 

Uganda

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

FM Sam Kutesa 18 Feb confirmed Ugandan forces (UPDF) to leave S Sudan in next 2 months. UPDF 17 Feb sought agreement with S Sudan govt that they would not be prosecuted for any crimes in S Sudan; S Sudan defence minister 17 Feb said govt funding UPDF offensive against S Sudan rebels. President Museveni 24 Feb signed controversial anti-gay bill; World Bank 28 Feb postponed $90mn loan.

Kenya

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

Police 2 Feb raided Masjid Musa mosque, Mombasa; clashes with worshipers left several dead, many others injured; over 100, including children, arrested; police claimed jihadi convention underway. Fighting between Borana and Burji youths continued in Moyale, Marsabit County, NE. Nairobi police 13 Feb forcibly dispersed peaceful protests over insecurity, corruption, impunity and high cost of living; 4 rights activists arrested. National Security Advisory Committee 13 Feb reported it had intelligence proving USAID planned to destabilise govt through ICC process.

Somalia

  |  1 Mar 2014

Deteriorated

Al-Shabaab carried out several high-profile attacks amid beginnings of renewed AMISOM and govt offensive: at least 11 killed, including 2 senior officials, in car bomb and assault on presidential palace 21 Feb; Al-Shabaab carried out series of bombings in Mogadishu 2-3 Feb; at least 12 killed in bomb attack on intelligence HQ in Mogadishu 27 Feb. Car bomb near Mogadishu airport 13 Feb targeting UN convoy killed 7, injured 15 civilians. Al-Shabaab, govt and AMISOM forces clashed across Somalia throughout month. PM Sheikh Ahmed 25 Feb laid out govt security plans to counter terrorism. Kenyan govt 1 Feb announced Sierra Leonean troops will replace departing Kenyan AMISOM forces in Kismayo. Jubaland Interim Administration security head Issa Kamboni killed 17 Feb by Al-Shabaab defector in Kismayo. Ethiopian AMISOM troops began anti-Shabaab security operations in Bay, Bakool regions, as local intra-clan dispute continued over creation of new regional “South West State” administration. Newly appointed president of Puntland autonomous region Abdiweli Gas 4 Feb suggested disputed Sool, Sanag and Ayn regions should be under Puntland administration; ministers early Feb visited disputed areas heightening local tension (see Somaliland). UN Monitoring Group report leaked mid-Feb accused Somali Federal Govt of diverting weapons to Al-Shabaab. Telecom companies early Feb applied Al-Shabaab-ordered internet ban in militant controlled south-central Somalia, as well as some govt-controlled areas. 

Sudan

  |  1 Mar 2014

Unchanged

Talks between govt and SPLM-N began 13 Feb under AUHIP auspices but quickly reached stalemate with both parties accusing other of inflexibility; AUHIP head Thabo Mbeki 18 Feb suspended talks for 10 days; govt 25 Feb agreed to draft framework agreement put forward by Mbeki. Some 5,000-6,000 Arab militiamen from S Darfur returned from deployment against SPLM-N in S Kordofan; militia accused of abuses against civilians in neighbouring N Kordofan prompting demonstrations in N Kordofan capital al-Obeid. Govt negotiations with JEM-Bashar on implementation of April 2013 power-sharing deal resumed 26 Feb. National Assembly 13 Feb urged govt to revoke Humanitarian Aid Commission’s (HAC) 1 Feb decision to suspend work of ICRC. UNSC 13 Feb extended sanctions monitoring panel for Sudan for 13 months.

Kenya

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Western embassies early-Jan issued new travel advisories on heightened risk of terrorist attacks following grenade attack on popular bar in Diani beach targeting New Year’s celebrations that injured 10. Media reported Al-Shabaab broadening recruitment drives beyond Muslim-dominated NE and coastal regions. Inter-tribal violence in NE continued: 4 Gabra community members killed early Jan by Borana tribe assailants in Moyale, Marsabit county; security forces deployed but failed to prevent large-scale raid by Borana from across Ethiopian border.

 

South Sudan

  |  1 Feb 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

Govt 28 Jan announced treason charges against 7 opposition politicians including former VP Riek Machar over alleged Dec coup attempt, raising fears over fate of ceasefire agreed 23 Jan between govt and armed opposition following IGAD mediation. Machar said treason charges were govt attempt to derail peace process, called for President Kiir’s resignation. 23 Jan deal included agreement on release of political detainees held by govt but failed to address underlying causes of conflict; 7 of 11 detainees released to Kenya 29 Jan, other 4 to stand trial for treason; govt late Jan said 4 detainees would be released in time to participate in peace talks scheduled to begin 7 Feb. Armed opposition, govt late-Jan accused each other of violating ceasefire; UN 27 Jan called for “robust” monitoring of ceasefire. Ongoing clashes in Unity State forced thousands to flee late-Jan. Fighting continued throughout IGAD mediation as govt forces backed by Ugandan army retook major towns seized by armed opposition in Dec including Bor 18 Jan, oil capital Bentiu 10 Jan and Malakal 20 Jan. AU 16 Jan affirmed commitment to begin investigation of rights abuses; UN ASG for Human Rights Ivan Šimonovic visited 17 Jan, said both sides committed atrocities. UN estimates 770,000 displaced in fighting since Dec 2013; nearly 70,000 inside UN bases. UN USG for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos visited late-Jan, highlighted dire humanitarian situation. David Yau Yau, Murle rebel leader, signed peace agreement with govt late-Jan. 

Somalia

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

New PM Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed 17 Jan named cabinet, approved by parliament 21 Jan; both President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and PM vowed fresh offensive against Al-Shabaab. 4,395 Ethiopian troops formally merged into AMISOM 22 Jan; U.S. 10 Jan announced secret deployment of small number of military advisers since Oct. Al-Shabaab attacks, bombings continued. Kenyan airstrike on Al-Shabaab training camp in Garbarahey, Gedo region, killed 30 militants 10 Jan; U.S. drone strike 26 Jan reportedly killed 3 Al-Shabaab militants including senior intelligence commander Sahal Carabey. Puntland MPs elected Abdiweli Gas new president of Puntland autonomous region by 33 to 32 votes. Gas unveiled new 46-member cabinet 28 Jan, presidential race losers given crucial portfolios; expected to improve relations with Somali Federal Govt (SFG) but risks increasing tensions with Somaliland. Puntland security forces 25-26 Jan launched attacks against Al-Shabaab bases near Bosaso and Galgala town, killing 7 fighters. AMISOM at SFG request 30 Jan halted 2 conferences in Baidoa aimed at forming autonomous states in south. SFG and Somaliland resumed talks in Turkey 16 Jan (see Somaliland).

Uganda

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Govt 16 Jan admitted military support to S Sudan’s govt after earlier claim Ugandan army in S Sudan to evacuate Ugandan nationals; MPs 14 Jan endorsed govt decision to deploy army in S Sudan. Media 27 Jan reported “open letter” from LRA leader Joseph Kony calling for talks; govt said doubtful Kony seriously seeking peace. Opposition leader Kizza Besigye arrested again 24 Jan after reported confrontation with police outside his home in Kampala.

Sudan

  |  1 Feb 2014

Unchanged

Ongoing sporadic protests against fuel and bread shortages; finance minister admitted Central Bank facing shortage of hard currency. President Bashir’s long-awaited speech on political reform 27 Jan failed to set out specific reform plan despite reports that ruling National Congress Party (NCP) had begun discussions with opposition on postponing 2015 elections for 2 years, amending elections law, changing composition of electoral commission. Conflict in Darfur, S Kordofan and Blue Nile continued. Bashir 6 Jan visited Juba, discussed deploying joint force to protect oilfields in S Sudan. S Sudan opposition forces accused Justice and Equality Movement of fighting alongside S Sudan govt in Unity state (see S Sudan).

Somalia

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

PM Shirdon stepped down 2 Dec after losing confidence vote in parliament; President Sheikh appointed Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed new PM, approved by parliament 21 Dec. Al-Shabaab carried out series of attacks including on Mogadishu intelligence base 4 Dec; suicide bomb targeting Puntland troops 5 Dec killed at least 7 and wounded 37 including civilians in Boosaaso; gunmen killed 8, including 5 Kenyan policemen, in Liboi border town 10 Dec. MP Mohamed Warsame Faisal killed 6 Dec by car bomb. At least 10 killed 27 Dec in suspected Al-Shabaab bomb attack targeting govt forces in Mogadishu. Jubaland President Sheikh Ahmed Madobe 7 Dec appointed new cabinet as part of Nov reconciliation agreement; opponents not included. Heightened inter-clan fighting in Lower-, Middle-Shabelle and Hiiraan regions sparked by land disputes and representation struggle; 2 senior Jubaland officials killed 12 Dec in Kismayo, 10 killed 12 Dec in Al-Shabaab attack in Baido, Hiiraan. All 21 presidential opposition candidates 25 Dec approved Puntland President Farole’s appointed vetting committee which will determine outcome of 8 Jan Puntland presidential elections.

Sudan

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Reshuffled cabinet unveiled 8 Dec; new appointees primarily from army and security services, as well as President Bashir’s Ja’ali tribe; VP Ali Osman Mohammed Taha replaced by Major General Bakri Hassan Saleh from president’s old guard. AU-UN joint chief mediator and UNAMID head Mohammed Ibn Chambas held consultations in Addis Ababa 9-11 Dec; rebels reiterated need for joint approach on Darfur, Blue Nile and S Kordofan. Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) rebels 1 Dec claimed over 100 Sudanese security personnel killed in attack on 3 military convoys in Jebel Abu Domou, near border between N and S Kordofan. Army 21 Dec said 17 areas in S Kordofan retaken from rebels. 2 UNAMID peacekeepers killed 29 Dec in S Darfur. Govt expressed concern over S Sudan violence including impact of oil flow disruption on Sudan economy, welcomed S Sudan President Kiir’s acceptance of IGAD mediation.

Uganda

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Lord Mayor of Kampala and Museveni critic Erias Lukwagoearly secured high court order re-instating him to office after Nov impeachment and removal; reinstatement not acted upon, raising possibility of by-election. President Museveni 30 Dec called on S Sudan rebels to accept ceasefire, said East African nations agreed to unite to “defeat” rebels; Ugandan soldiers deployed to S Sudan. Army 3 Dec reported senior LRA commander killed in SE CAR, 11 Dec said 19 LRA rebels surrendered to Ugandan authorities. Dissident General David Sejusa 14 Dec launched opposition party “Freedom and Unity Front”. Controversial anti-homosexuality law passed 20 Dec.

South Sudan

  |  2 Jan 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

S Sudan on cusp of civil war after President Kiir accused former VP Riek Machar of attempted coup 17 Dec; UN reported over 1,000 killed, 180,000 displaced by escalating violence. Clashes began in Juba, rapidly spread to Unity and Jonglei states. Violence particularly heavy in Bor, Jonglei, where AU 23 Dec said “war crimes” had been committed: Machar claimed Ugandan jets backing Kiir’s forces bombed Bor 21 Dec; Bor has changed hands 3 times, currently under control of rebel forces “loyal” to Machar. Machar 19 Dec reportedly called on army to oust Kiir; rebel troops 22 Dec took Bentiu, capital of oil-rich Unity state. Regional FMs 20 Dec, mediators 21 Dec met with President Kiir to discuss crisis; Rebecca Garang, John Garang’s widow, met with Kiir 21 Dec but no breakthrough. Govt 27 Dec pledged to observe immediate ceasefire; Machar agreed to talks mediated by regional peace and security body Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); talks began 2 Jan in Ethiopia. UNSC 24 Dec increased peacekeeping force to 12,500, called for “immediate cessation of hostilites”, dialogue. UN evacuated all non-essential staff; 2 UNMISS peacekeepers killed in attack on Aboko UN base.

Ethiopia/Eritrea

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Water ministers from Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt met 16 Dec, failed to reach agreement on disputed Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project. FM Tedros Adhanom 5 Dec said over 100,000 Ethiopian citizens repatriated from Saudi Arabia since Nov following latter’s crackdown on migrant workers. 5 additional suspects in Nov suicide bomb plot, which Ethiopian authorities linked to Somali Al-Shabaab militants, arrested mid-Dec.

Kenya

  |  2 Jan 2014

Unchanged

Inter-ethnic clashes in north increased: dozens killed, thousands displaced by clashes between Borana and Gabra communities in Marsabit. Parliament 5 Dec approved deployment of army to Marsabit, Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu. Madrasa teacher believed to be former Al-Shabaab militant working with Kenyan security forces to fight terrorism beheaded 2 Dec in Malindi. Hundreds of Muslim youths from controversial Masjid Musa mosque, widely viewed as centre of Islamist radicalisation, invaded Sakina mosque in Majengo, forcefully evicted Imams, vowed to introduce jihad sermons at all mosques in Mombasa and act against those working with state agencies; police arrested 18. At least 4 killed 15 Dec in suspected Al-Shabaab grenade attack on bus in Nairobi.

South Sudan

  |  2 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Early Nov results of unilateral unofficial referendum on Abyei status held by Ngok Dinka 27-30 Oct showed 99.98% of voters in favour of joining S Sudan; Sudan dismissed results, S Sudan govt has not officially endorsed results. UN 25 Nov extended Abyei peacekeeping mission to May 2014. President Kiir 20 Nov met Sudan President Bashir on sidelines of Africa-Arab summit, discussed bilateral relations. Dr Lam Akol, chairman of SPLM-DC who ran against President Kiir in 2010 elections, 2 Nov returned from self-imposed exile in Khartoum. UN SRSG Hilde Johnson 18 Nov said S Sudan “at crossroads”, warned that despite some positive signs, continuing deadly inter-communal conflict, abuses by security forces and challenges in extending govt authority could threaten security. 5 killed 29 Nov in civilian attack on security forces in Unity state. LRA rebels reportedly attacked 5 villages in W Equatoria state late Nov, killing 3.

Uganda

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Opposition leader Kizza Besigye and close ally Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago charged 21 Nov with holding unlawful assembly; Lukwago found guilty of abuse of office by govt tribunal 14 Nov, arrested 18 Nov. Police 26 Nov fired tear gas to disperse protests against Lukwago’s impeachment. Gen. David Segusa 22 Nov said President Museveni cannot be ousted in elections, called on Ugandans to “build alternative capacity” to remove him. Ugandan LRA leader Joseph Kony reportedly engaged in surrender talks with Central African Republic. Uganda continued to push for “fast-tracking” of East African Community (EAC) integration ahead of 30 Nov EAC summit.

Sudan

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) 7 Nov began tour of Europe, met with French, German and UK representatives to discuss humanitarian situation in rebel-held areas and other issues; EU did not meet with SRF, citing SRF refusal to resume talks based on Doha Document for Peace in Darfur. Govt 19 Nov announced readiness to resume talks with SPLM-N. Govt 12 Nov announced new offensive against SRF in S Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile where clashes continue; UNOCHA 24 Nov said some 1,300 displaced since 12 Nov. JEM military leader Fidel Mohammed Rahoma reportedly killed in offensive against army facilities in Abu Zabad 17 Nov. Fighting between Salamat, Misseriya and Ta’aisha tribes along Sudan-Chad-CAR border resumed, over 100 reportedly killed. 2 health workers killed 29 Nov in W Darfur.

Kenya

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

Resolution to defer ICC trial of President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto failed to pass UNSC vote 15 Nov; govt 21 Nov proposed amendments to ICC’s Rules of Procedure and Evidence at Assembly of State Parties (ASP) including change to require suspects be physically present; ASP adopted 3 new rules minimising obligation of accused to be present. Kenyatta 28 Nov vetoed controversial media bill imposing tighter regulations on journalists. Heavily armed militia from West Pokot attacked Lorogan village in Turkana over border disputes, access to natural resources. Joint Open Society Justice Initiative and Muslims for Human Rights report 20 Nov accused police of extrajudicial killing, torture and other rights abuses in counter-terror operations.

Somalia

  |  1 Dec 2013

Unchanged

PM Shirdon resisted pressure from President Sheikh to resign on grounds of ineffectiveness; AU SR Mahamat Saleh Annadif mediating. Shiridon 17 Nov called on fellow Darod tribe MPs to intervene; parliament 21 Nov requested vote of confidence. UNSC 12 Nov passed resolution approving additional 4,400 AMISOM troops to boost fight against Al-Shabaab; Ethiopia said willing to contribute. Clan fighting in Middle Shabelle region 7-8 Nov left 18 dead, 20 wounded near Jowhar; govt troops and gunmen reportedly involved in clashes in Lower Shabelle 17-18 Nov. Al-Shabaab attacks continued: at least 6 killed, 15 wounded in 8 Nov bombing outside Maka Al-Mukarama hotel, Mogadishu; Puntland forces same day repelled assault on Bossaso Central Prison; Al-Shabaab 19 Nov attacked police station in Beledweyne town, 19 killed. Jubaland Reconciliation Conference in Mogadishu 3-6 Nov ended in agreement between Somalia govt, Jubaland interim govt and rival parties on ending hostilities and federalism arrangements. At least 8 killed 28 Nov in clashes between Khatumo militia and Puntland govt troops in Taleh, Sool region.

Sudan

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Protests against govt continued early-month despite use of tear gas to disperse demonstrators; 7 university professors arrested late-Oct in crackdown. Ghazi al-Attabani, former adviser to ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and ex-majority leader in parliament, 26 Oct announced defection from NCP, intention to form new party. President Bashir 28 Oct referred to “reform and change” at opening of new parliamentary session. Bashir 22 Oct met with S Sudan President Kiir in Juba to discuss bilateral issues including Abyei dispute; some concessions but no overall breakthrough. AU High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) mandate extended to Dec 2014 and to whole Horn of Africa. AUHIP-proposed referendum on Abyei slated for Oct unilaterally undertaken by local Ngok Dinka community despite warnings from AU. AU 27 Oct condemned Sudan govt for preventing planned AU visit to Abyei. Govt 31 Oct condemned renewed U.S. sanctions.

Somalia

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

U.S. special forces 5 Oct raided home of al-Shabaab commander Abduldkadir “Ikrima” in Barawe, Lower Shabelle region, failed to capture him. U.S. drone strike 28 Oct killed 2 senior al-Shabaab members in Middle Juba region. Targeted bombing by Kenyan military 31 Oct destroyed al-Shabaab training camp in Dinsoor region, estimated 300 killed. Suicide bomb targeting Ethiopian troops killed at least 17 including 4 Ethiopian soldiers, wounded over 30 in Beledweyne 19 Oct. AU 12 Oct agreed to increase AMISOM troops by 6,000; decision awaiting UNSC approval. Al-Shabaab clashes with govt/AMISOM forces continued. Govt 7 Oct declared all oil exploration permits signed with Puntland and Somaliland regions invalid, companies should negotiate with govt.

 

South Sudan

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Media reported rumours rebel leader David Yau Yau in talks with govt; Murle elders and former rebels who have already accepted President Kiir’s amnesty offer reportedly serving as facilitators. Nearly 80 reportedly killed in rebel attack in Jonglei state mid-month. Govt continued to encourage return of displaced Ngok Dinka to Abyei, pressured AU to go ahead with proposed referendum or refer case to UNSC; Ngok Dinka tribe held unilateral referendum, voted to join S Sudan.

Kenya

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

Fears of violent backlash against Somali and Muslim communities following Sept al-Shabaab attack on Westgate mall grew; radical Muslim cleric Sheikh Ibrahim Rogo and 3 others killed by gunmen in Mombasa 3 Oct; Rogo’s supporters claimed shooting was reprisal by Kenyan security forces. Muslim youths 4 Oct clashed with police in Mombasa, 4 killed and church set on fire. Interior Minister Joseph Ole Lenku 25 Oct criticised Dadaab refugee camp near Somalia border, echoing sentiments of Kenyan Parliamentary Committee on Defence which 30 Sept called for closure, claimed camp “a nursery for terrorists”. Military 31 Oct bombed al-Shabaab camp in Somalia (see Somalia). AU leaders 22 Oct requested UNSC defer ICC trials of President Kenyatta and VP Ruto, AU also called for immunity for serving heads of state; trial of Kenyatta delayed from 12 Nov to 5 Feb 2014.

Uganda

  |  1 Nov 2013

Unchanged

President Museveni 30 Sept ordered enquiry into alleged theft and mismanagement of military supplies by UPDF soldiers deployed in Somalia. Police raised terror alert following warnings of imminent attack following Sept al-Shabaab attack on Westgate Mall in Kenya.

Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2013

Deteriorated

Thousands protested throughout country late-Sept against govt decision to remove fuel subsidies, called for fall of regime. Protests turned deadly, with over 200 reportedly killed and some 700 arrested; ruling National Congress Party’s (NCP) HQ in Omduran set on fire 24 Sept. NCP accused opposition parties and Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) of inciting protests. Opposition National Consensus Forces formed umbrella group with professional unions, civil society and youth organisations to oppose crackdown; reformists within ruling NCP, including former presidential adviser Ghazi Salahuddin and former army general Mohammed Ibrahim, also reportedly criticised violent govt action. Khartoum reiterated opposition to AU proposal for Oct Abyei referendum. Newly-appointed U.S. Special Envoy Donald Booth met with Sudanese co-chair of Abyei Oversight Committee, al-Khair al-Fahim; FM Ahmed Ali Karti said Booth not welcome to mediate Abyei dispute, Khartoum would only allow AU mediation. Power struggle between NCP-appointed North Darfur governor Oman Kibir and traditional leader of Mahamid Arab tribe and Janjaweed militia leader Musa Hilal intensified. Military operations against SRF in South Kordofan continued.

Kenya

  |  1 Oct 2013

Deteriorated

Terrorist attack on Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi killed at least 67 and injured hundreds 20-24 Sept; Somali al-Shabaab militant group 21 Sept claimed responsibility for attack, said in retaliation for Kenya’s intervention in Somalia; at least 8 arrested. ICC trial of Deputy President William Ruto and journalist Joshua Sang began 10 Sept. National Assembly and Senate mid-month passed motion to withdraw from ICC’s Rome Statute. Clashes between Borana and Gabra communities in Marsabit county continued.

South Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

President Kiir 23 Sept suggested 2015 general elections may be delayed, cited lack of funds for census and completion of new constitution. Kiir early Sept visited Khartoum, discussed post-secession issues; Sudanese President Bashir agreed not to close oil pipeline. Govt continued to urge Abyei communities to return to region, register and prepare for planned Oct referendum on status of region; AU 24 Sept urged Sudan and S Sudan to refrain from any unilateral actions including holding of referendum, 27 Sept urged countries to “urgently” restart talks. Ministry of Oil and Petroleum early-Sept announced S Sudan received $969mn since resuming oil production in April, 20% paid to Sudan govt.

Somalia

  |  1 Oct 2013

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab militant group 20-24 Sept laid siege to Kenyan mall, killing dozens (see Kenya). Regional Jubaland president Sheikh Ahmed Madobe’s motorcade attacked in Kismayo by al-Shabaab 13 Sept; Madobe survived but at least 20 killed, many injured. 15 killed, over 40 injured 7 Sept in al-Shabaab attack on Mogadishu restaurant. Western-born al-Shabaab militants Abu Mansoor al-Amriki and Osama al-Britani reported killed amid ongoing reports of increasing factionalism within group. EU pledged €650mn for reconstruction at 16 Sept New Deal conference.

Somalia

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Somalia Federal Govt (SFG) and local militias 28 Aug reached agreement recognising Sheikh Ahmed Madobe as 2-year leader of interim Jubaland administration following months of clashes in Kismayo port, including at least 10 Al-Shabaab militants reportedly killed in clashes with Kenyan troops 21 Aug and fighting between Al-Shabaab and Ras Kamboni militias. UN and AU welcomed agreement but hundreds 30 Aug protested in regional capital Baidoa against SFG. Regional Puntland president Farole 5 Aug accused SFG of tampering with Somali provisional constitution, announced regional administration suspending cooperation with SFG until country’s “genuine” constitution restored. Puntland VP Shire late-Aug visited disputed borderlands between Somaliland and Puntland sparking condemnation by Somaliland officials. Clashes between govt forces and Al-Shabaab continued: heavy fighting reported 22-23 Aug in Janale town, Lower Shabelle region; Al-Shabaab 26 Aug attacked govt base in Bakol region. Gunmen 21 Aug killed 2 police officers in Mogadishu; radio journalist shot dead 20 Aug in Mogadishu marking 5th journalist killed this year.

Ethiopia/Eritrea

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Several Muslim protests coinciding with Eid al-Fitr early Aug resulted in clashes with security forces in Addis Ababa, Dessie, and E and W Oromiya. Protesters 2 Aug clashed with police in W Arusi, Oromiya region; govt said 3 police killed by armed protesters; protesters reported over 10 killed when police fired on unarmed protesters. Organisers of longstanding “Friday protests” expressed concern, distanced themselves from any protester violence; rights group Amnesty International condemned reported govt violence. Opposition groups mid-month condemned govt crackdown, warned govt’s hard-line stance on Muslims will inspire extremism following reports of arrests, beatings.

South Sudan

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Lawmakers 24 Aug unanimously endorsed parliamentary speaker James Wani Igga as new VP; parliament 25 Aug delayed election of new speaker after failing to reach consensus on Igga’s replacement. UNSC 23 Aug condemned attacks on civilians in Jonglei state, called for humanitarian access. Dozen of SPLA officers reportedly jailed mid-Aug for role in human rights abuses in Jonglei; President Kiir 25 Aug announced investigation into abuses. Rebel David Yau Yau responded positively to Kiir’s renewed offer of amnesty, but demanded “international participation” in peace talks, notably by UNMISS. Hundreds protested 25 Aug in Juba against deteriorating security following killing of 2 police officers in Nyakurona West 24 Aug.

Kenya

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab militants mid-Aug attacked police post in Galmagala, killing 4; Kenyan Defence Forces 20 Aug clashed with some 20 Al-Shabaab in Garissa, reportedly killing at least 10. Police 22 Aug warned Somalia Al-Shabaab militants may be planning attacks in Mombasa to coincide with anniversary of assassination of Muslim cleric Aboud Rogo. Over 20 reportedly killed late Aug in clashes in Moyale in north; govt warned it would use force to restore peace; local MP denied deaths due to intercommunal clashes between Borana and Gabra, said militiamen crossing border from Ethiopia to blame.

Sudan

  |  1 Sep 2013

Unchanged

Following 29 July joint security meeting between Sudan and S Sudan, govts agreed to end support for rebel groups, expressed willingness to solve oil dispute; President Bashir postponed threatened closure of oil pipelines. UNSC 23 Aug expressed concern over “volatile situation” in disputed Abyei region; govt said S Sudan’s threats to unilaterally hold election were breach of cooperation agreements; 25 Aug accused Juba of non-cooperation with AU border commission. Rumours of govt reshuffle continued; meeting between President Bashir and former intelligence chief Salah Gosh early-Aug led to speculation reshuffle will include opponents of ruling National Congress Party. Opposition National Consensus Forces early-Aug called for 3-year transition to resolve “Sudan crisis” through all-inclusive govt including civil and armed opposition, then free and fair elections. Military operations continued in S Kordofan and Blue Nile; army 25 Aug reported Ashambo region in Blue Nile retaken from SPLM-N rebels. UN 23 Aug reported over 190 killed in Aug in clashes between Maalia and Rizeigat tribes in East Darfur.

Ethiopia/Eritrea

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

Eritrea: UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea report leaked late July reported “emerging fissures within security establishment”, regime’s continued links with Somalia’s Al-Shabaab, warlords. UNSC 24 July condemned flow of weapons into Eritrea despite embargo, extended Monitoring Group’s mandate to Nov 2014.

Ethiopia: 42 opposition Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ) protesters calling for political reform and release of political prisoners and journalists arrested 15 July in Amhara region; all reportedly released next day. Govt mid-month said controversial resettlement programme, focused on Gambella region, to continue despite criticism from rights groups; visiting European Parliament delegation emphasised importance of consulting affected populations. Over 15% increase in defence spending approved in budget early July. Tensions with Egypt over Nile waters continued.

South Sudan

  |  1 Aug 2013

Deteriorated

Security deteriorated in Jonglei where fresh fighting between Lou Nuer and Murle early July left scores dead and hundreds injured, and attacks by rebels led by David Yau Yau continued in Pibor county. Media reported several rebel commanders killed, David Yau Yau wounded, SPLM captured military base. Human Rights Watch accused SPLM of abuses against civilians in anti-insurgency operations in Jonglei, failing to stop Lou Nuer youth mobilising against Murle. President Kiir 23 July dismissed VP Riek Machar and all cabinet and deputy ministers following increased tensions within ruling SPLM, 31 July announced new cabinet members. Govt mid-July announced plans to shut down oil production following Sudanese President Bashir’s threat to close pipelines (see Sudan); 23 July said Sudan decision “unjustifiable” and “material breach” of Sept 2012 cooperation agreement.

Somalia

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

Leaked diplomatic letter from FM Fawzia Yusuf to AU exposed rift between Federal Govt and Kenyan troops; govt accused Kenyan military of backing Ras Kamboni forces against other groups in deadly June clashes in Kismayo. PM Shirdon’s office 1 July called for replacement of Kenyan AMISOM forces in Kismayo with “more neutral AU force”. Al-Shabaab attacks and clashes with govt troops/AMISOM continued including suicide bomb attack on Turkish embassy in Mogadishu 27 July, killing at least 6 including Turkish security official; 10 killed in Baidoa 6 July; 3 killed in Al-Shabaab bomb attack on AMISOM convoy in Mogadishu 12 July. Govt 3 July offered amnesty for al-Shabaab defectors. Bakol Governor 6 July said Al-Shabaab leader Mukhtar Robow in talks with govt, Defence minister denied talks. Semi-autonomous Puntland region President Farole suspended local elections scheduled for 15 July following deadly violence in Qardho and Galkayo. Leaked UN Monitoring Group report on Somalia and Eritrea reported Eritrea directly supporting warlord Abdi Nur Siad in influencing govt, said govt corrupt; UN 24 July extended Group’s mandate to Nov 2014.

Uganda

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

President Museveni’s appointment of General Aronda as internal affairs minister approved 18 July despite legal bar on serving military officers taking ministerial positions; appointment prompted walk-out from parliament by opposition MPs; opposition and civil society members late July threatened to seek impeachment of Museveni by Constitutional Court. Govt continued to harass opposition leaders: Kizza Besigye 23 July appeared in court on charges of planning illegal rally; opposition Kampala Major Erias Likwago placed under house arrest 22 July. 4 intelligence agents who worked with army general David Sejusa, who in May accused Museveni of grooming son for succession, charged with planning coup. Military spokesman 11 July warned rebel Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) based in DRC reorganising, planning attacks on Uganda.

Sudan

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

Divisions within ruling National Congress Party (NCP) increased, sparking reports President Bashir planning to tighten grip on power through cabinet reshuffle. Opposition National Consensus Forces (NCF) and armed Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) mid-July announced closer ties; National Umma Party (NUP) leader al-Mahdi early July launched campaign to topple Bashir by peaceful opposition, distancing NUP from NCF-SRF alliance. Bashir mid-July ordered release of former National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) chief Salah Gosh, imprisoned Nov 2012 on charges of plotting coup. Violence increased in Darfur including attacks on UNAMID peacekeepers 2, 13 July that killed 7. JEM rebels 24 July attacked military convoy and army base near Jebel al-Dayer, N Kordofan, 27 July attacked Delang, S Kordofan. UNSC 30 July renewed UNAMID mandate to Aug 2014, called on rebel groups to end violence, hold peace talks with govt. Clashes between Central Reserve Police and NISS erupted in Nyala 7 July; militia leader and ICC-indictee Ali “Kosheib” wounded. Over 100 reportedly killed 29 July in fighting between Misseriya and Salamat tribes in Un Dukhun, S Darfur. President Bashir 18 July repeated threat to close oil pipeline from S Sudan unless Juba ends support for Sudanese rebels; AU 22 July announced investigation into accusations exchanged by Sudan and S Sudan over fomenting unrest in each other’s territory; govt said would delay oil pipeline shutdown to allow time for investigation.

Kenya

  |  1 Aug 2013

Unchanged

ICC judges 15 July ruled all proceedings in trial of Deputy President Ruto for crimes against humanity during 2007-8 election violence to be held at The Hague. Aide to former PM Odinga interviewed by police following allegations he plotted to initiate uprising; rights activists accused govt of intimidating dissenters. Leaked UN Monitoring Group Report on Somalia and Eritrea accused Kenyan Defence Forces of facilitating illegal charcoal exports from Kismayo, Somalia; military denied accusations, said report “poorly researched”.

Kenya

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged

National Assembly early June rejected Senate’s recommendation for budget increase for counties; President Kenyatta 10 June signed bill with lower county budget. Senators and governors 12 June brought appeal to Supreme Court alleging Kenyatta acted unconstitutionally and should have established mediation between two Houses of Parliament, called for greater autonomy in determining county budgets as part of devolution process. Police Inspector General David Kimaiyo 17 June appointed 47 county police commanders despite protests from National Police Service Commission (NPSC). ICC judges 20 June pushed back trial of President Kenyatta to 12 Nov. 9 killed 21 June in clashes between Garreh and Degodia clans in Wajir and Mandera county; Kenyatta 24 June ordered groups to surrender illegal arms, warned of possible govt security operation if conflict continues. At least 15 killed in grenade attack on IDP camp in Joroqo, Mandera 23 June.

South Sudan

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged

Tensions with Sudan over oil, rebels continued (see Sudan). Upper Nile rebels led by Johnson Olonyi 13 June met with SPLA leaders, accepted govt amnesty. Médecins sans Frontières 14 June said govt blocking aid delivery by not allowing agencies to leave cities; Human Rights Watch accused security forces of detaining over 130 civilians without charge, other rights abuses. President Kiir mid-June dismissed Ministers of Finance Minister and Cabinet Affairs, accused of corruption.

Uganda

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged

Opposition leader Kizza Besigye returned from U.S. 19 June, was prevented from attending rally in Kampala 20 June; police forcibly dispersed supporters. President Museveni’s son 24 June denied allegations he is being groomed to succeed Museveni. EU diplomat Roberto Ridolfi criticised President Museveni’s 6 June address to nation, said key issues including corruption and press freedom not addressed. New Vision journalist found dead 17 June.

Ethiopia/Eritrea

  |  1 Jul 2013

Unchanged
Eritrea: UN HRC 14 June renewed for one year mandate of Special Rapporteur on human rights in Eritrea, condemned continued rights violations. Sudanese President Bashir visited mid-June, discussed bilateral relations with President Afwerki. Leader of exiled opposition Eritrean Islamic Reform Movement 12 June said 8 members arrested in Sudan border region, including chief of military wing Abu Abbas.
Ethiopia: Thousands protested 2 June in Addis Ababa in first authorised demonstration since 2005 calling for govt to respect rights including freedom of speech, stop forced resettlements and release prisoners of conscience; opposition Unity for Democracy and Justice party 20 June threatened more protests unless anti-terrorism law repealed. Tensions with Egypt over Nile dam continued. Govt mid-month expressed willingness to review construction adjustments but refused to halt project; high-level talks ongoing.
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CrisisWatch N°128

Read the latest edition of CrisisWatch in full.