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CrisisWatch Database

Region / country

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710 results found
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Uganda

  |  1 Jun 2016

Unchanged
Govt continued crackdown on opposition: security forces 3 May arrested over twenty officials of major opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and activists for “disobeying lawful orders” by attempting to hold prayer meeting at FDC HQ. FDC led march 5 May in defiance of court order, govt deployed army as preventive security measure, banned media coverage. FDC leader Kizza Besigye arrested 11 May after mock ceremony to swear in Besigye as “rightful” president; Besigye charged with treason and terrorism 13 May. President Museveni sworn in 12 May following Feb re-election; Sudanese President Bashir attended ceremony ignoring ICC arrest warrant, U.S. and EU diplomats left ceremony in protest.

Sudan

  |  1 Jun 2016

Unchanged
Opposition alliance Future Forces of Change (FFC) and national dialogue (ND) committee 24 May agreed to continue talks on roadmap agreement on multiple conflicts despite disagreements on major issues. Govt, AU and UN 23 May completed fact-finding mission in Darfur to inform discussions on UN Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) exit strategy; made little progress on timetable. Clashes between police and students continued from April: police reportedly arrested dozens of students in Khartoum and other cities; some 25 students injured 16-17 May in Khartoum in clashes between ruling National Congress Party and opposition Popular Congress Party supporters over student union election results. Fighting continued between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), pro-govt militias and rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North in S Kordofan and Blue Nile states, including SAF aerial bombing of civilian areas; military and civilian deaths reported.

South Sudan

  |  1 Jun 2016

Unchanged
Transitional unity govt 27 May approved cantonment of rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) forces in Greater Equatoria and Bahr el Ghazal; 22 May formed committee to resolve controversial issues of boundaries and number of states as demanded by IGAD. Small groups of Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and SPLA-IO clashed in former Unity and Upper Nile states.

Somalia

  |  1 Jun 2016

Unchanged
Al-Shabaab continued to launch regular attacks despite Somali National Army (SNA) and AMISOM offensive and U.S. drone strikes, but lost territory. Al-Shabaab 1 May attacked SNA base in Middle Shabelle, killed at least fifteen soldiers; IED killed two security officials in Puntland 6 May; suicide attack on traffic police HQ in Mogadishu killed five police 9 May; militants ambushed convoy of Kenyan AMISOM troops and Jubaland militia 24 May in Lower Juba, killed one Jubaland militant and wounded seven; militants 31 May killed two soldiers in Puntland. SNA and AMISOM forces 6 May repelled Al-Shabaab assault in Gedo region, three militants, one SNA killed; SNA 12-15 May retook three villages in Lower Shabelle, no casualties reported. Somali Federal Govt President Hassan Sheikh 22 May endorsed plan for electoral process ending months of dispute.

Kenya

  |  1 Jun 2016

Unchanged
Opposition protests in Nairobi against Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) for alleged pro-govt bias continued from late April and started in Mombasa and several counties: dozens wounded during month in clashes with police, who 23 May reportedly killed at least one protester in Kisumu county and two in Siaya county. Govt 6 May announced plan to close Dadaab refugee camp in NE despite international pressure.

Uganda

  |  2 May 2016

Unchanged
Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) 7 April launched two-month Operation Usalama to stabilise W Rwenzori region after 50 people reported killed since end-Feb in post-election attacks targeting security forces, allegedly by Bakonzo ethnic militia linked to Rwenzori cultural kingdom and in clashes between Bakonzo and Bamba ethnic groups. At least two UPDF killed 3 April in clash between UPDF and Rwenzururu kingdom royal guards in Kasese town. UPDF 7-14 April arrested 163 suspected militia members in Kasese and Bundibugyo districts, Rwenzori region. Police 1 April ended 43-day house arrest of Opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) leader Kizza Besigye, 5 April briefly detained him on way to FDC event.

Sudan

  |  2 May 2016

Unchanged
Referendum held in Darfur 11-13 April on whether region should remain five states or be reunited, amid reports of low turnout and ongoing fighting: Darfur Referendum Commission 23 April said 97% voted for status quo, 2% for unification and semi-autonomy. Armed opposition groups Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and factions of Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Minawi (SLM-MM) and Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) boycotted referendum, accused govt of rigging. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) 12 April announced capture of last SLM-AW position in Jebel Marra area, Darfur, which SLM-AW denied 13 April. Fighting continued in Two Areas (S Kordofan and Blue Nile) between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), opposition claimed heavy govt losses: at least a dozen fighters killed early month in Nuba mountains, S Kordofan; dozens reportedly killed 5 April in Mufwa area, Blue Nile; nine killed 15 April in clash in Zalataya area, S Kordofan; at least four SPLM-N killed 24 April in Kadugli area, S Kordofan. Rebel coalition Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) 24 April announced willingness for six-month ceasefire in Darfur, S Kordofan and Blue Nile and urged AU mediators to facilitate meeting with govt to discuss implementation.

South Sudan

  |  2 May 2016

Improved Resolution Opportunity
Riek Machar, leader of armed Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO), returned to Juba 26 April and was sworn in as first VP. Govt, SPLM/A-IO and other political groups formed transitional govt 28 April. SPLM/A-IO armed personnel continued arriving in Juba, reaching more than 1,500. Ethiopian army 20 April entered S Sudan pursuing Murle tribesmen who crossed from S Sudan into Ethiopia and 15 April reportedly killed over 200 people and abducted over 100 children; negotiations between Juba and Addis ongoing end-month over Ethiopian force’s parameters within S Sudan (see Ethiopia).

Somalia

  |  2 May 2016

Unchanged
Al-Shabaab kept up urban attacks and made limited territorial gains: killed at least eighteen civilians and two National Intelligence Service Agency (NISA) officers in five attacks in Mogadishu including mortar attack near presidential compound; 4 April retook Janale town, Lower Shabelle from AMISOM forces; 14 April killed four govt officials in Afgooye, Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab 26 April ambushed military convoy near Baidoa, killed at least eight Somali National Army (SNA) troops and injured thirteen. U.S. drone strikes 31 March killed officer in Amniyat, Al-Shabaab’s internal security and intelligence wing, in Jilib, Middle Juba and 11-12 April killed at least twelve militants in Yontooy, Lower Juba. Kenya Air Force 22 April bombed Al-Shabaab positions in Lower Juba; SNA and AMISOM 20 April killed 25 militants in Galguduud. 16 April AMISOM killed four civilians mistaken for militants in Bulo Marer, Lower Shabelle; Ethiopian forces (EPDF) 23-25 April reportedly clashed with local militia in Da’adheer, Galguduud, nineteen civilians killed. Islamic State-faction claimed first IED attack on AMISOM convoy near Mogadishu 24 April, reportedly damaging vehicle. Puntland 3 April accepted “4.5” clan-based formula for 2016 elections on condition that 2020 elections will use one-man-one-vote system. Seven killed 14-17 April in fighting between rival clan militias over tax collection in Marka, Lower Juba. Conference to merge Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions started 12 April in Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, most Hiraan elders took part but leading elder boycotted.

Kenya

  |  2 May 2016

Unchanged

ICC 5 April terminated case against Deputy President William Ruto and former journalist Joshua Arap Sang accused of crimes against humanity in 2007-2008 post-election violence, deciding there was “no case to answer” and citing political interference. Al-Shabaab 10 April attacked police station in Wajir county 3km from Somalia border, injuring three officers. Ethnic Marakwet 14 April killed three Pokot people in Elgeyo-Marakwet county following fighting between the two groups in March. Degodia clan militias 25 April raided Ajuraan clan homestead in Korondile, Wajir county, killed three women and injured three boys. Police in Nairobi 25 April tear-gassed opposition party Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leaders and supporters on way to electoral commission to demand removal of chairman and commissioners.

Uganda

  |  1 Apr 2016

Unchanged
Following President Museveni’s controversial Feb re-election, police and govt supporters clashed with opposition supporters early to mid-March: soldiers 10-11 March killed at least seven allegedly armed opposition supporters in western Kasese district, fifteen others reportedly killed in west, notably Bundibugyo district. Opposition presidential candidate Amama Mbabazi 1 March filed petition with Supreme Court to challenge election results; court 18 March demanded Electoral Commission hand over tally sheets to Mbabazi; presiding judges 31 March dismissed petition.

Sudan

  |  1 Apr 2016

Unchanged

Govt and African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) 21 March signed roadmap agreement for how to address multiple conflicts: includes ceasefire, talks on Two Areas (S Kordofan, Blue Nile states) and Darfur, endorsement of National Dialogue (ND). AUHIP head Thabo Mbeki called for opposition to sign, however major opposition groups including National Umma Party (NUP), Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) accused AUHIP of govt bias, rejected agreement. Fighting continued: Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) 7 March claimed it had repelled SPLM-N offensive in S Kordofan, casualties unknown; some 30 SAF, at least three SPLM-N reportedly killed 9-11 March during govt offensives in Two Areas; clashes between SAF and Sudan Liberation Movement-Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) reportedly continued in Jebel Marra area, Darfur region. Popular Congress Party (PCP) leader Hassan al-Turabi died 5 March; replaced by Ibrahim al-Sanousi. Amid posturing by Sudan and South Sudan to strengthen positions in talks over unresolved post-independence issues, Sudan 29 March announced closure of border with South Sudan.

South Sudan

  |  1 Apr 2016

Unchanged Resolution Opportunity
Initial steps in implementing August 2015 peace deal helped raise prospects for significant progress toward formation of transitional govt of national unity in April. First group of rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) forces arrived in Juba 28 March to prepare for return of their leader, VP designate Riek Machar. Complicating ongoing negotiations with Sudan including over disputed border areas, President Kiir sacked FM Barnaba Marial Benjamin after he wrote that academic from Abyei, claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan, was Sudanese not South Sudanese. Under peace agreement, former political detainees have chosen their leader Deng Alor, from Abyei, to be FM in forthcoming transitional govt. Sudan 29 March announced closure of border with South Sudan (see Sudan). East African Community (EAC) 2 March accepted South Sudan membership.

Somalia

  |  1 Apr 2016

Unchanged
U.S. and clan militias both intensified anti-Al-Shabaab operations in south-central, while insurgents tried to capture territory further north. Al-Shabaab 3 March attacked Somali Federal Government (SFG) defence minister’s convoy near Kismayo, no casualties reported; 7 March detonated bomb outside Beledweyne airport, at least six injured; 14 March seized Garacad port town from boats in Puntland; 31 March killed at least six in suicide attack in Galkayo. Puntland forces 16-20 March pushed back insurgents, reportedly killing 55. Al-Shabaab 20 March attacked Somali National Army (SNA) base in Lower Shabelle region, claimed to have killed 74 soldiers and seized nine vehicles; SNA claimed only six soldiers killed. U.S. claimed that its 5 March strikes on Al-Shabaab training camp in Raso, Hiraan region killed 150 militants; 8 March provided air support to SNA attack on Al-Shabaab base in Awdigle, Lower Shabelle region. Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) reportedly killed 34 Al-Shabaab militants, seized weapons near Ras Kamboni, Lower Juba region in 19 and 20 March attacks. Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) 22 March arrested 24 suspected Al-Shabaab members in Mogadishu IDP camp. Some 28 reportedly killed 1-2 March in Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a militia infighting over cooperation with Galmudug Interim Administration (GIA). GIA and Puntland forces clashed over grazing land 13 March, eleven killed. Gunmen 30 March killed at least two Turkish citizens and four Somalis in Mogadishu.

Kenya

  |  1 Apr 2016

Unchanged
Ugandan police 8 March briefly arrested two Kenyan Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission officials on disputed Migingo Island in Lake Victoria; Ugandan police 12 March assaulted two local Kenyan officials. Communal violence continued including: Pokot and Marakwet communities clashed 22-24 March in Elegeyo-Marakwet county, at least four killed, dozens of livestock taken; Aulihan and Abudwak communities 25-27 March clashed in Garissa county, at least one killed; Degodia community 26 March attacked Gabra herders in Marsabit county, two killed; Gabra 29 March killed three Degodia.

Uganda

  |  1 Mar 2016

Unchanged

President Museveni re-elected 18 Feb in mostly peaceful presidential elections with some 60% of vote; poll marred by irregularities including late delivery of voting materials to some constituencies in and around Kampala. Main opposition candidate and runner-up Kizza Besigye briefly arrested multiple times during and after vote amid protests against alleged govt vote-rigging; held under house arrest during week following election. Police reportedly searched Besigye’s Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party HQ 22 Feb, arrested eight FDC members for alleged plans to incite violence. Six killed 27 Feb in violence around western Bundigubyo town after dispute related to announcement of local election results.

Sudan

  |  1 Mar 2016

Unchanged

Govt 16 Feb accepted African Union High Implementation Panel (AUHIP) invitation to 16-18 March Addis Ababa meeting with armed opposition groups; same day announced indefinite extension of National Dialogue (ND). Govt “dry season” campaigns in “Two Areas” (S Kordofan and Blue Nile states) continued with aerial bombing and ground offensives involving Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and locally recruited militia. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) 17 Feb claimed it killed sixteen govt soldiers in attack, one SPLM-N member also killed; 21 Feb claimed it killed 200 govt soldiers during govt offensive in Blue Nile state; govt did not confirm military casualty figures, latter figure believed to be inflated. SPLM-N 26 Feb claimed it killed 23 govt soldiers during ambush of logistical convoy in S Kordofan state. Some 40 opposition representatives, including former ruling National Congress Party (NCP) notables Dr Ghazi Salahuddin Atabani and Al-Tayyib Mustafa, 23 Feb announced formation of Future Forces of Change (FFC) political coalition, largely comprising parties that quit National Dialogue process.

South Sudan

  |  1 Mar 2016

Unchanged

Peace deal implementation made some progress: President Kiir 11 Feb appointed Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) leader Riek Machar first VP and began movement of govt forces 25km away from Juba, both in accordance with deal. Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) 23 Feb announced agreement on implementation of transitional security arrangements, including SPLA-IO forces arrival in Juba. Constitutional amendment process suspended 21 Feb with most contentious issues to be managed through “Boundaries Commission” called for by Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). At least eighteen killed 17 Feb in fighting inside UNMISS civilian protection camp in Malakal; armed civilians and individual govt forces subsequently burnt down much of camp which hosts tens of thousands.

Somalia

  |  1 Mar 2016

Deteriorated

Al-Shabaab upped terrorist attacks and recaptured locations across south-central Somalia: attacked and recaptured several towns in Lower Shabelle, Bay and Jubaland regions, including 8 Feb temporary occupation of Marka and 16 Feb attack on Afgoye, locations lost by Al-Shabaab in 2012. Local clan militia, AMISOM and Somali National Army regained control of some towns from Al-Shabaab in Middle Shabelle during month. Kenya govt claimed its 8 Feb airstrike killed Al-Shabaab Intelligence Chief Mohammed Karatey, denied by Al-Shabaab 18 Feb. Al-Shabaab 26 Feb launched complex attack involving gunmen accompanying vehicle-borne explosives on Mogadishu hotel popular with govt officials and MPs opposite presidency killing at least 30; Al-Shabaab suicide bomber and car bomb 28 Feb hit two locations in Baidoa, Bay region, killing at least 30; suicide bomber 2 Feb detonated on board passenger plane, only bomber killed. AMISOM troop contributing countries 28 Feb held summit in Djibouti to reinforce military operations against Al-Shabaab after months of setbacks. Two killed 1 Feb in anti-govt protest in Puntland’s Bari region; police same day raided home of Bari governor Gallan on suspicion of instigating protest.

Kenya

  |  1 Mar 2016

Unchanged

Somalia PM Sharmarke briefly detained 20 Feb at Nairobi airport for security protocol breach; Somali govt demanded apology. Gunmen 21 Feb attacked police facility in Hindi, Lamu county; no casualties reported. Communal violence included: Illchamus community raiders 4 Feb attacked Tugen (Kalenjin) herders in Baringo county, three killed, hundreds of livestock taken; cattle raiders 5 Feb killed at least six in Samburu county. Govt 21 Feb started talks with Ethiopia and South Sudan on disputed border demarcation.

Uganda

  |  1 Feb 2016

Unchanged
National and international human rights organisations 13 Jan called on govt to end recruitment into controversial “crime preventers” civilian militia. President Museveni 26 Jan received South Sudanese SPLM/A-IO leader Riek Machar, discussed South Sudan peace deal and relations between Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda. Security forces 31 Jan arrested former intelligence chief General David Sejusa for partisan political activity.

Sudan

  |  1 Feb 2016

Unchanged
Informal talks 22-23 Jan in Germany between govt and opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) on South Kordofan and Blue Nile made no progress on issues of National Dialogue (ND), security and humanitarian arrangements. Govt 23 Jan opened talks with opposition Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudan Liberation Movement-Minni Minawi (SLM-MM) in Ethiopia. Ruling National Congress Party (NCP) official 12 Jan claimed govt open to early elections after ND. Local security forces 10 Jan killed twelve during IDP protests against pro-govt militia violence in West Darfur state. Security forces mid-month clashed with rebel Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) in Central Darfur state. Govt 4 Jan severed diplomatic ties with Iran over Tehran attack on Saudi embassy (see Iran). Following talks with South Sudan, President Bashir agreed to renegotiate fees for oil transit in light of global price drop; Sudan-South Sudan border reopened 27 Jan, closed prior to South Sudan’s 2011 secession (see South Sudan).

South Sudan

  |  1 Feb 2016

Unchanged
22 Jan deadline for formation of transitional govt under Aug 2015 peace agreement missed: President Kiir 7 Jan appointed 50 members of opposition SPLM/A-IO to parliament; distribution of ministries between govt and opposition groups announced same day. Some ethnic communities, IGAD, AU, U.S., UK and Norway criticised establishment of 28 states. Sudan govt 21 Jan announced willingness to renegotiate oil fees; South Sudan now losing money exporting oil. Setting conditions for negotiations, South Sudan troops 26 Jan moved five miles south of Sudan/South Sudan border and border opened 27 Jan in accordance with 2012 deal. Ugandan President Museveni 26 Jan received SPLM/A-IO head Riek Machar in Uganda to discuss Aug deal and Sudan-South Sudan-Uganda relations. 21 Jan UN report accused all conflict parties of war crimes; UN sanctions panel 26 Jan recommended arms embargo, sanctions on Kiir, Machar and top commanders.

Somalia

  |  1 Feb 2016

Unchanged
Al-Shabaab inflicted heavy losses on AMISOM, while Somali leaders reached agreement on electoral process. In major attack 15 Jan on AMISOM forward base in El-Adde, Gedo region Al-Shabaab claim to have killed some 100 Kenya Defence Forces (KDF). KDF 16-24 Jan launched offensive in Gedo region, senior militant reportedly killed; Somali officials late month accused KDF of killing civilians in airstrikes. KDF 25-26 Jan withdrew from El-Adde town and Badhadhe district following attacks. Other Al-Shabaab attacks in Mogadishu 2-10 Jan killed at least six civilians; 21 Jan attack on Mogadishu restaurant killed twenty civilians, four attackers also killed. Clash between Al-Shabaab and clan militia 20 Jan in Middle Shabelle region left seven dead. Six militants arrested, ammunition recovered 13 Jan in joint AMISOM/Somali National Army (SNA) security operation in Leego town, Lower Shabelle region. Islamic State 12 Jan released another video encouraging Al-Shabaab members to join. Following 24-27 Jan meeting in Mogadishu, Somali political leaders agreed on model for Aug 2016 elections: 275 seats in Lower House (based on current clan-based power-sharing formula) and 54 seats in Upper House (48 to be shared equally among existing/emerging federal states, six between Puntland and Somaliland). Puntland rejected proposal, protests against it held in Puntland cities, Garowe and Bosaso 28 Jan.

Kenya

  |  1 Feb 2016

Unchanged
Communal violence over cattle theft and grazing grounds continued from late Dec; five reported killed 7 Jan in clashes near border of Kisumu and Nandi counties; three killed 23 Jan near border of Isiolo and Laikipia counties. Police 20 Jan killed four suspected Al-Shabaab militants, recovered weapons and ammunition in Malindi town, Kilifi county. Suspected Al-Shabaab 27 Jan killed six police officers in eastern Lamu county with remote-controlled IED; 31 Jan killed three civilians in Pandanguo village, Lamu county.

Uganda

  |  4 Jan 2016

Unchanged

At least seventeen injured 13 Dec in clashes between supporters of President Museveni and pro-Mbabazi youth in Ntungamo; twenty arrested 21 Dec at Mbabazi party headquarters. Voters’ register released 15 Dec caused public controversy over its legality and accuracy, national ID registration, nomination of candidates. Clashes erupted 5 Dec along disputed border with South Sudan after some 300 SPLA soldiers crossed border into Uganda.

Sudan

  |  4 Jan 2016

Unchanged

Govt, opposition claimed AU-supported informal talks 16-18 Dec made some progress, main issues still unclear; both sides agreed to resume discussions this month. SPLM-N and Sudanese Congress Party (SCoP) 26 Dec agreed to boycott the forthcoming National Dialogue preparatory meeting if “Sudan Call” opposition group formed late 2014 is excluded. Govt 31 Dec announced National Dialogue (ND) extension until 10 Feb, ceasefire until 31 Jan; opposition Darfuri New Justice and Equality Movement (NJEM) 20 Dec joined ND; SPLM-N 19 Dec denied plans to join. Fighting between govt and rebels continued in Blue Nile and S Kordofan. Govt forces 13 Dec captured Sudan Liberation Movement-Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) spokesperson in central Darfur; govt 21 Dec suspended execution of seven members of opposition Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).

South Sudan

  |  4 Jan 2016

Unchanged

Implementation of peace deal began in South Sudan: SPLM/A-IO advance delegation led by chief negotiator Taban Deng Gai 21 Dec arrived in Juba; parties held first meetings of joint peace institutions. Machar 6 Dec unilaterally announced formation of a political party structure amid ongoing debates over whether the SPLM/A-IO should rejoin SPLM or form independent party; Dhieu Mathok appointed Sec Gen, Machar’s wife Angelina Teny appointed chairperson of security and defence committee. Sporadic, low-level conflict continued, largely in Equatoria region. UNSC 15 Dec extended UNMISS mandate to July 2016, authorising use of drones. In violation of peace deal, president Kiir 24 Dec created 28 states by decree and appointed governors, dissolved previous ten states; announcement was condemned by SPLM/A-IO and alliance of eighteen political parties. Govt 24 Dec announced memorandum of understanding for negotiation with South Sudan Armed Forces/Federal Democratic Party (SSAF/FDP), breakaway group from the SPLM/A-IO, in bid to undermine Machar’s SPLM/A-IO.

Somalia

  |  4 Jan 2016

Unchanged

National Consultative Forum 16 Dec issued conclusions on public consultations on process to form new govt in 2016: included preliminary election framework; detailed agreement to be finalised at 10 Jan conference on elections. Increased Al-Shabaab attacks continued including: assassination of journalist 3 Dec and senior intelligence officer 10 Dec in Mogadishu; one UN staff killed 14 Dec in capital; three killed, at least eight wounded 19 Dec in IED explosion in Mogadishu. Dozens killed as deadly clashes with Somali National Army (SNA) and AMISOM forces continued in Lower Shabelle, Hiiraan and Bay regions throughout month. Three militants including senior Al-Shabaab leader Abdirahman Sandhere killed 2 Dec, one 21 Dec in U.S. airstrikes. Senior militant leaders Muhammad Ferey, Muhammad Ibrahim Dhubow surrendered late month. Govt 7 Dec confirmed 6 Nov surrender of U.S.-born Al-Shabaab member following increasingly visible rift within group between supporters of al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS); video published online 7 Dec again called for Al-Shabaab members to join IS. Tensions over federal state formation in Galkayo reduced with ceasefire signed 5 Dec by Galmudug and Puntland officials. Breakaway Upper Bakool region formed 25 Dec. At least twenty killed 12 Dec in inter-clan clash in Beledweyne, Hiiraan, reportedly sparked by tensions over pastoral resources; peace agreement signed 18 Dec; some ten killed 31 Dec. Some 30 killed 12-20 Dec in clashes between rival militias in Lower Shabelle, Puntland regions.

Kenya

  |  4 Jan 2016

Unchanged
Al-Shabaab militants continued to target Kenyan security forces in Mandera and Lamu counties with at least seven attacks and ten fatalities reported in Dec including two police officers killed 27 Dec in ambush on vehicles in Lamu; two killed and three wounded 21 Dec in attack on bus and lorry between Kotulo and Elwak. At least two killed, ten injured and hundreds displaced during 23-28 Dec intercommunal violence in Narok county; govt deployed security forces to area. President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto 15 Dec announced plan for new permanent coalition “Jubilee Party”. Electoral commission 21 Dec threatened boycott of elections over inadequate funding.

Uganda

  |  1 Dec 2015

Unchanged

Internal Affairs Ministry 5 Nov announced deployment of 27 Joint Operation Centres made up of police, army, intelligence service and govt officials to oversee Feb 2016 election security as official campaigning began.

Sudan

  |  1 Dec 2015

Unchanged

African Union-supported negotiations between govt and rebel groups from Darfur, S Kordofan and Blue Nile held 19-22 Nov in Addis Ababa: parties disagreed on definition of ceasefire; govt refused to allow humanitarian aid into rebel-held territory, proposed separate deal with SPLM-N on S Kordofan and Blue Nile. SPLM-N demanded comprehensive agreement, criticised govt decision to exclude political opposition from National Dialogue. Govt 20 Nov accused AUHIP of supporting SPLM-N in negotiations. AUHIP 23 Nov announced preparatory meeting for national dialogue to take place 7 Dec. SPLM-N 20 Nov reportedly repelled govt attack in Blue Nile, claimed govt base in Soda seized; 22 Nov called for international support of demand for humanitarian access to war-torn areas. Govt 24 Nov announced offensive in Darfur, S Kordofan and Blue Nile; SPLM-N 29 Nov mobilised troops.

South Sudan

  |  1 Dec 2015

Unchanged

IGAD heads of state summit meant to kick-start implementation of Aug peace deal delayed until 23 Nov; former Botswanan President Mogae 27 Nov inaugurated peace deal oversight body in Juba but SPLM/A-IO refused to participate. In accordance with peace deal, Ugandan forces 2 Nov completed withdrawal of forces deployed Dec 2013 in support of govt. Armed clashes continued in southern and central Unity state in violation of ceasefire. Shilluk Agualek forces increased rhetoric against Kiir govt over control of Malakal town. Conflict continued and expanded into new regions of the Equatorias, including Mundri, Mwagi, Opari, Ezo and Nimule, as several new armed groups declared themselves. President Kiir 18 Nov announced plans to normalise exchange rate, close gap between official exchange rate and black market rate that has deepened economic crisis. Normalisation will enable S Sudan to access loans from international financial institutions and to support peace implementation plan.

Somalia

  |  1 Dec 2015

Unchanged

Al-Shabaab launched several successful attacks: fifteen killed including govt officials and military general in attack on Mogadishu hotel 1 Nov; fifteen soldiers killed, three military vehicles seized in 2 Nov ambush on AMISOM convoy in Baledogle; 13 Nov reclaimed strategic town of Fiidow; 14 Nov killed seventeen troops in attack on army base in Kismayo; 28 Nov killed two police in Mogadishu. Interim South West State President Sharif Hassan Adan escaped assassination attempt 11 Nov. AMISOM and Somali National Army operations against Al-Shabaab continued: six Al-Shabaab members killed 2 Nov in Bulo-Berde, Hiiraan region; nine killed, military vehicle and ammunition recovered 6 Nov in Jungal, Gedo region. Suspected drone strike 21 Nov near Balad Amin, Lower Shabelle region reportedly killed at least five Al-Shabaab members. Tensions over federal state formation process continued between and within states including at least 30 killed 22-30 Nov in Galkayo during clashes between Puntland and Galmudug militia.

Kenya

  |  1 Dec 2015

Unchanged

Army deployed to border in Sololo after three police reportedly killed 20 Nov by Ethiopian soldiers in Marsabit county; Ethiopians reportedly crossed border in pursuit of Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) rebels, abducted over 20 Kenyan civilians suspected of OLF links (see Ethiopia). Al-Shabaab attacks continued: IED exploded in Mandera 20 Nov targeting policemen, no casualties; another exploded 23 Nov in Garissa county, five soldiers injured. Security forces 20 Nov announced destruction of six Al-Shabaab camps in Boni forest, recovered weapons, no casualties reported. Group of Al-Shabaab militants 27 Nov attacked Konton Village, Wajir county, along Somali border, preached to residents before retreating. Chief Justice Willy Mutunga 7 Nov warned of potential for post-election violence in 2017 amid increased cases of hate speech by politicians.

Somalia

  |  2 Nov 2015

Unchanged

Second round of national consultative forum held 19-20 Oct to discuss general election when Somali Federal Govt (SFG) mandate ends in 2016; SFG President Hassan underlined commitment to ensure electoral process is broad, inclusive and transparent; regional consultations across six federal states to begin Nov before forum reconvenes mid-Dec. Impasse within SFG continued: parliamentary speaker 13 Oct attempted to diffuse impeachment motion brought against President Hassan in Aug, proposed investigative report instead; several MPs rejected his intervention, stated intention to move forward with impeachment. Tensions over state formation process continued including ongoing dispute between rival factions over Galmudug Interim Administration and clan-based clashes mid-Oct in Hiiraan’s capital Beledweyne that killed ten. Al-Shabaab regained footholds across south-central Somalia regions, but suffered reverses around Diinsoor and Bardere mid-October. High-ranking Al-Shabaab leader Abdulqadir Mumin 23 Oct officially pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS); Al-Shabaab reportedly arrested 30 IS sympathisers.

Uganda

  |  2 Nov 2015

Unchanged

Police 10 Oct denied permission for planned opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) rally in Rukungiri and prevented convoy from traveling to south west, FDC politicians including presidential candidate Kizza Besigye briefly detained. Female politician became undressed in public while being dragged along ground by police officers while resisting arrest; police rejected any accusations of wrongdoing. Police 15 Oct blocked Besigye and FDC MP Ssemujju Nganda residences to prevent another planned rally in east. National Resistance Movement (NRM) local govt primaries held 12 Oct amid violent intimidation and harassment of supporters and candidates by rival factions and partisan security forces; two men killed, local councillor’s house torched in Butaleja district. Scores injured early Oct in clashes between Karamajong and Turkana over access to Kobebe watering point in Moroto district; army intervened to quell violence.

Sudan

  |  2 Nov 2015

Unchanged

Opposition National Dialogue (ND) conference started 10 Oct in Khartoum: majority of political opposition and armed groups boycotted conference despite intense govt lobbying. President Bashir 10 Oct expressed readiness to extend two-month ceasefire announced 22 Sept into permanent cessation of hostilities if armed opposition participates in ND. Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) 4 Oct prevented two opposition leaders from travelling to Paris to attend opposition talks with Western envoys; 28 Oct arrested three opposition figures. Govt continued to reject AU call to hold pre-dialogue preparatory meeting with armed and opposition groups in Addis Ababa. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) 16 Oct reportedly deployed some 300 troops to Aden in Yemen as part of Saudi-led “Decisive Storm” operations against Huthi rebels.

South Sudan

  |  2 Nov 2015

Unchanged

President Kiir 2 Oct unilaterally created additional eighteen states; keeping most oil-producing areas under pro-govt leadership; Kiir will appoint all governors and state MPs. Kiir-led SPLM National Liberation Council 16 Oct dissolved SPLM structures, removed all SPLM officials from positions; said SPLM/A-IO and SPLM-FD must return to Juba to be included in years-delayed SPLM convention, now set for Nov. SPLA-IO 26 Oct signed transitional security agreement, govt signed last month. IGAD 26 Oct appointed former Botswana president, Festus Mogae, as Chair of peace implementation monitoring mechanism “JMEC”. Conflict intensified in Western and Central Equatoria, particularly around Mundri. SPLA-IO 27 Oct merged with Equatorian armed group, REMNASA. African Union 28 Oct released report of inquiry into wartime atrocities; documented mass killings, rapes and forced cannibalism.

Kenya

  |  2 Nov 2015

Unchanged

Teacher kidnapped 16 Oct by gunmen in Hagardera refugee camp, rescued in Somalia in joint security operation between Kenyan Administration Police and neighbouring Jubaland Interim Administration. Communal violence re-erupted in NE: several killed in clashes between Garre and Dagodia clans along border between Wajir and Mandera counties; Ajuraan and Dagodia clans in Wajir clashed late Oct, at least four killed; incidents of intercommunal violence 14-27 Oct in Meru and Isiolo counties left at least eight dead, large numbers of livestock stolen; Turkana and Pokot communities clashed late Oct in Turkana county, at least seven killed, over 300 livestock stolen.

Uganda

  |  1 Oct 2015

Unchanged

Former PM and presidential aspirant Amama Mbabazi 7 Sept relaunched voter consultation program in east after his July attempt was blocked by his arrest and police orders against public meetings. Mbabazi supporters clashed with police during rallies in Sororti and Jinja 9 and 10 Sept respectively; police 14 Sept withdrew permission for Mbabazi’s voter consultation program in north. Mbabazi 12 Sept formally joined opposition coalition The Democratic Alliance (TDA) and submitted nomination to be presidential candidate; TDA members currently split over choice of presidential candidate, with rumours Kissa Besigye, leader of opposition forum for Democratic Change (FDC), will leave coalition if not chosen. President Museveni 15 Nov visited Sudan for first time in over a decade, met with President Bashir and SPLA-IO leader Riek Machar to discuss S Sudan; agreed to reactivate joint security committee with Sudan to enhance military cooperation and intelligence sharing.

Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2015

Unchanged

Following meeting with Troika (U.S., UK and Norway), opposition Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) coalition 15 Sept released statement affirming it is prepared to sign six-month cessation of hostilities agreement in Darfur, S Kordofan and Blue Nile, said it would participate in National Dialogue (ND) preparatory meeting but rejected current ND arrangements. President Bashir 22 Sept announced rebel leaders who participate in ND to be pardoned, declared govt willingness for ceasefire in conflict regions. Bashir 4 Sept visited China, signed contracts to buy ships and civilian planes, Sudan awarded China concessions for gas exploration. U.S. Special Envoy Donald Booth visited Khartoum 27-30 Aug, met with FM Ghandour on National Dialogue, sanctions and regional affairs. Khartoum-based members of paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) 5 Sept rebelled over delayed salaries, erected roadblocks.

South Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2015

Unchanged

“Ceasefire and Transitional Security Workshop” laid out in 12 Aug IGAD Compromise Agreement to end civil war began 13 Sept, attended by members of SPLA, SPLA-IO and Former Detainees; parties agreed on six of seven agenda items, including permanent ceasefire modalities and shared command structure with only size and composition of forces in Juba unresolved. SPLA-IO only partially implementing agreement pending resolution of transitional security arrangements in Juba. Ceasefire largely holding since 16 Sept when parties provided declarations of disposition of forces to mediation though conflict in some locations flared, expanded in parts of Central and Western Equatoria where small groups taking up arms in response to local land grievances, abuses by security forces. AU late Sept announced it will start work on hybrid war crimes court as called for in peace agreement.

Somalia

  |  1 Oct 2015

Deteriorated

Instability rose as AMISOM lost ground against Al-Shabaab and factional fighting broke out in the Galmudug Interim Administration (GIA). Al-Shabaab attacks continued including 21 Sept attack on govt convoys leaving Mogadishu’s presidential palace Villa Somalia, killing eleven (including three Polish citizens), 23 injured; 8 Sept attack on military convoys in Gedo; 8 and 13 Sept attacks on govt convoys near Beledweyne. Al-Shabaab 1 Sept launched large-scale attack against AMISOM’s Ugandan-manned base in Janale, Lower Shabelle; Ugandan army said nineteen killed, six soldiers unaccounted for; Al-Shabaab claimed 61 troops killed and significant ammunition stockpiles seized. Al-Shabaab 5-15 Sept regained control of several Lower Shabelle locations; also regained several towns in Bakool, Gedo and Hiiran during month. Conflict continued to escalate between GIA and ASWJ militias who reject GIA including 9 Sept clash in Abudwaq; 73 Somali National Army soldiers defected to GIA. Relations between GIA and Puntland worsened as GIA warned Puntland against antagonistic rhetoric. Puntland Defence Forces from Godad base, near Galkayo, went on strike 17 Sept over unpaid salaries, entered Galkayo and seized Central Bank offices and regional presidential palace, blocked main road from Galkayo to Bacaadweyn; followed similar strikes in Bossaso and Garowe 10 and 13 Sept.

Kenya

  |  1 Oct 2015

Unchanged
Security operation “Operation Linda Boni” launched 11 Sept to dislodge Al-Shabaab and affiliated militants from coastal forest enclave of Boni, Lamu county; operation expected to last three months. Kenya National Commission on Human Rights 15 Sept released report detailing alleged rights abused during govt’s counter-terrorism campaign including extrajudicial killings and disappearances. 

 

Uganda

  |  1 Sep 2015

Unchanged

Former PM Mbabazi 17 Aug collected nomination forms to seek presidency outside ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) platform following President Museveni’s emergence late July as unopposed presidential candidate for NRM. Continued opposition infighting early Aug resulted in splits within Democratic Party following its 26 July leadership election and within Uganda People’s Congress over revised electoral roadmap, undermining new “Democratic Alliance” coalition. Two Muslim clerics early Aug survived assassination attempts in Mbale district. UPDF early month intervened in ongoing border dispute between local communities in Lamwo district and S Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria, 3 Aug forcefully evicted dozens of S Sudanese accused of erecting illegal border demarcation point.

South Sudan

  |  1 Sep 2015

Improved Resolution Opportunity

Parties to conflict finally signed peace agreement, declared permanent ceasefire following months of negotiations. Chair of SPLM-IO, Riek Machar and Pagan Amum, representing the Former Detainees, 17 Aug signed final peace agreement that was modified following 16 August IGAD Heads of State summit which included meeting with Kiir and Machar. President Kiir 26 Aug signed deal after IGAD gave govt fifteen additional days for “consultations” and threatened sanctions, arms embargo if no signature following Kiir’s refusal to sign on 17 Aug deadline. Kiir and Machar declared permanent ceasefire effective midnight 30 August. Generals Peter Gadet and Gathoth Gathkuoth 13 Aug split from SPLM-IO; several other generals and politicians including head of opposition United Democratic Salvation Front (UDSF) party Gabriel Changson also withdrew support. Kiir 16 Aug announced dismissal of governors of Western and Central Equatoria, Warrap and Upper Nile states and put former Western Equatoria governor under house arrest for four days.

Somalia

  |  1 Sep 2015

Unchanged

Discussion on selection process for Somali Federal Govt (SFG) MPs when current parliament’s term ends in Aug 2016 continued following late-July two-day High Level Partnership Forum which concluded “one person, one vote elections’ will not be held. Over 100 SFG MPs 12 Aug tabled no-confidence motion against President Hassan Sheikh accusing him of violating constitution, corruption, nepotism and incompetence. Al-Shabaab attacks continued including suicide attack on AMISOM base in Kismayo and bombing in Mogadishu 22 Aug that killed at least twenty; dozens killed 26 Aug in Al-Shabaab attack on govt convoy in south. Process to combine Hiran and Middle Shabelle into new Interim Federal Administration launched 7 Aug, process expected to last four months. President of Interim Juba Administration (IJA) Ahmed Madobe re-elected after IJA mandate ended 1 Aug; local opposition groups including some SFG MPs disputed election process.

Kenya

  |  1 Sep 2015

Unchanged

Renewed clashes 4 Aug between Wardei pastoralists and Giriama farmers over grazing land along border between Tana River and Kilifi counties: three killed, some 150 families displaced. Some 100 Al-Shabaab fighters 15 Aug temporarily occupied Basuba village, Lamu county, held meeting with some 300 villagers before retreating to bases in Boni forest. Interior ministry 23 Aug said two terror suspects arrested in Garissa town.

Sudan

  |  1 Sep 2015

Unchanged

National Dialogue (ND) committee headed by President Bashir 5 Aug announced process would recommence 10 Oct. President Bashir 20 Aug offered rebels two-month ceasefire and amnesty to join ND. Head of AU High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) Thabo Mbeki, tasked with mediating ND, addressed AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) following 25 August consultations with opposition parties and armed groups; AUPSC called for preparatory conference to be held in Addis Ababa to create conditions necessary for govt’s own ND process within Sudan. Security forces reportedly arrested some seventeen opposition members throughout month, most affiliated with Sudanese Congress Party (SCP). Sudan Revolutionary Front rebel coalition 26 Aug threatened to boycott current ND process and launch alternative. Fighting and civilian displacement increased in Blue Nile state as Sudanese Armed Forces clashed with SPLA-N rebels. Fighting continued in S Kordofan; SPLA-N mid-Aug announced seizure of strategic Gadier and Abu Grain garrisons. Former intelligence chief Awad Mohamed Ahemd bin Awaf appointed defence minister 23 Aug. U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Donald Booth 25 Aug visited Khartoum in first such visit for two years, held meeting with FM Ibrahim Ghandour.

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