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CrisisWatch Database

Region / country

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2436 results found
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Nigeria

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Boko Haram (BH) insurgency continued, with govt and BH both claiming gains and losses. BH 25 Nov took Damasak in Borno state near border with Niger. Suspected BH fighters 2 Nov stormed federal prison in Koton-Karfi, Kogi state, freed 145 inmates including suspected insurgents, killed two officers. Insurgents intensified attacks and suicide bombings in north killing over 230 civilians in Borno, Adamawa, Yobe and Bauchi states; over 1,000 insurgents 5 Nov overran army’s 174 Battalion camp in Abadan, Adamawa state; several soldiers ambushed and killed in Adamawa state 10 Nov. Roadside bomb exploded 27 Nov near Mubi, Adamawa state, killed 40 including five soldiers. Police station set on fire 29 Nov in attack on Shani town, Borno state. Bomb exploded 28 Nov, killing over 100 in grounds of central mosque in Kano, Kano state. Insurgents also suffered reversals: combined force of govt troops and local vigilantes 13 Nov drove them out of Mubi, largest town under BH control; also lost Vintim, Chibok mid-Nov. Lack of decisive response to intensified attacks deepened public distrust of military, including reports of army units fleeing BH’s 5 Nov attack on Abandan, and new charges of human rights abuses following 5 Nov killing of 16 men arrested by soldiers in Potiskum, Yobe state. Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, 14 Nov urged citizens to form militias to defend themselves. President Jonathan 18 Nov requested approval for six-month extension of emergency rule in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states. Intercommunal violence continued in Zamfara and Nawarawa states: suspected Fulani gunmen 8 Nov invaded Alakyo village, home of Ombaste militia, killing villagers including Ombaste’s spiritual leader Lega Agu. Fight spread to Shabu, suburb of Lafia, killing seven; further seven killed in Lafia 17 Nov. President Jonathan 11 Nov formally declared intention to seek re-election in Feb 2015 as candidate of ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Niger

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Nigerien leader of group linked to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) allegedly arrested 9 Nov near border in Algeria. Effects of Nigerian Boko Haram insurgency intensified: some 12,000 civilians fled to Niger’s Diffa region following 9 Nov fighting in Malam Fatori, Nigeria; Nigerian refugees in Diffa now total over 105,000. Increased border security measures implemented 28 Nov to prevent infiltration of jihadi insurgents. Countries contributing to UN peacekeeping mission in Mali 5 Nov met in Niamey to discuss Mali security, Niger indicated willingness to play greater role in regional security. Amid tensions over child trafficking charges brought against former National Assembly President Hama Hamadou, currently in France after fleeing in Aug, FM Mohamed Bazoum said no international arrest warrant would be issued. Amadou Salifou elected president of National Assembly 25 Nov; 42 opposition members boycotted vote.

Mali

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Algiers talks between govt and rebel armed groups resumed 20 Nov after 23 Oct suspension to allow Malian parties to discuss draft document with constituencies; Azawad Movements Coalition said document ignored key issues, 1 Nov released “counter-proposal” defending federalism. Algiers talks concluded 28 Nov, parties did not reach agreement; continued disagreement over federalism, next round of talks planned Jan 2015. Limited violations of ceasefire continued throughout month: 2 Nov clashes between govt forces and troops tied to High Council for Azawad Unity (HCUA) in Boulkessi resulted in arrest of twenty militants; explosion in Almoustarat killed two Malian troops same day. Landmine attack 7 Nov against MINUSMA in Almoustarat killed three civilians, another hit a ministerial convoy north of Gao 26 Nov killing two Malian soldiers.

Liberia

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Ebola epidemic slowed, but cases continued, food supply affected. President Johnson Sirleaf 13 Nov announced end of national state of emergency, 16 Nov appointed new ministers, including changes in ministries of health, education, public works.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Govt continued to reap benefits from Sept removal of controversial armed forces chief of staff Antonio Injai and push for increased financial aid: Portugal 4 Nov announced €7mn assistance plan for governance support following visit to Portugal by GB PM Pereira. Casamance separatist forces 25 Nov blocked interior minister Botche Candé’s convoy near border with Senegal, Candé demanded rebels leave Guinea-Bissau. Candé resigned 28 Nov, Doménico Sanca named interim interior minister. International Contact Group on Guinea-Bissau met 18 Nov, discussed continued coordination, support for stability and development. UNSC 25 Nov announced three-month extension of UN Integrated Peace-Building Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), to continue political, security, development assistance. Ongoing changes in distribution of power and resources generated tensions within ruling coalition Party for Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) including 10 Nov public row between finance minister Geraldo Martins and assembly speaker Cipriano Cassama over perks available to parliamentarians.

Guinea

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Opposition leaders 7 Nov issued communiqué announcing resumed political activities, noting ruling party campaigning has continued despite Ebola crisis. Minister of Territorial Administration Alhassane Condé 21 Nov said July draft agreement on elections will be signed as soon as possible; opposition highlighted their 7 Nov demands for electoral reform exceeded July agreement stipulations, said govt has until 15 Dec to meet demands or risk countrywide protests. President Condé 26 Nov said protests not tolerated during Ebola outbreak. Electoral Commission (CENI) 13 Nov announced French company Gemalto as new electoral roll operator.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Former President Laurent Gbagbo 12 Nov announced presidential candidacy on opposition Ivoirian Popular Front (FPI) platform; announcement sparked internal debate between hardliner pro-Gbagbo members, and moderates supporting Pascal Affi N’Guessan, party leader since 2001. FPI election committee 26 Nov validated Gbagbo’s candidacy following N’Guessan’s demand that committee reject Gbagbo’s submission. Opposition coalition Alliance of Democratic Forces of Côte d’Ivoire announced reintegration into Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) after withdrawing in Sept. Soldiers 18 Nov protested in Abijan, Bouaké, Korhogo, Daloa, and San Pedro, demanded govt settle outstanding wages; Defence Minister Paul Koffi Koffi 20 Nov announced wages of 476 former Defence and Security Forces will be paid by end of Dec.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

ZANU-PF internal tensions over President Mugabe’s succession as party leader intensified. Mugabe 23 Nov changed ZANU-PF constitution, further centralised power in president’s hands; enabled him to select three highest office-bearers in party. First Lady Grace Mugabe 16 Nov accused VP Mujuru of plotting President’s assassination; Mujuru denied charge. Numerous Mujuru allies removed from national and provincial positions in possible attempt to weaken VP’s faction. Mujuru’s application to participate in Dec party congress rejected 26 Nov.

Madagascar

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Former presidents including Andry Rajoelina, Marc Ravalomanana, and current President Rajaonarimampianina agreed to national reconciliation following Ravalomanana’s controversial return to country last month; Ravalomanana remains in custody. President Rajaonarimampianina 20 Nov said he would take reconciliation lead; other parties disagreed. Process has been unable to secure input of Rajoelina, who mid-Nov said reconciliation must follow justice.

Sudan

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Govt and SPLM-N 15 Nov endorsed AUHIP draft framework agreement on conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, including roadmap for participation of rebels in national dialogue, general elections and transitional period. Talks adjourned 17 Nov to give parties time to study draft agreement. Fighting nevertheless resumed in Blue Nile 24 Nov, both sides claimed responsibility for attacks. Parallel talks with Darfur rebels started 23 Nov, for the first time under AUHIP mediation in Addis Ababa; mediators hoping to achieve “synchronised” cessation of hostilities to merge both processes into national dialogue but govt again rejected idea, continued to insist on separate talks with Darfur rebels, called for them to join piecemeal Doha peace deal. President Bashir 30 Nov vowed to try Sadiq al-Mahdi, leader of opposition National Umma Party, for alliance with Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) rebel coalition. Local Radio Dabanga 2 Nov alleged mass rape of 200 girls by Sudanese Armed Forces in Tabit, North Darfur late Oct. Govt blocked UNAMID investigation in Tabit until 9 Nov. UNAMID 10 Nov said no evidence of rape but leaked confidential report revealed investigation monitored by Sudanese Armed Forces, witnesses intimidated. Govt 21 Nov refused UNSG and UNSC demands for new UNAMID visit to Tabit, asked UNAMID to prepare exit strategy, 26 Nov ordered closure of its human rights department.

Somalia

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Political infighting between President Hassan Sheikh and PM Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed continued following PM’s 25 Oct attempted cabinet reshuffle: over 140 parliamentarians launched no-confidence vote against PM but internal disruptions to parliament prevented vote, stalemate ongoing. Infighting began to affect South West state formation process: PM 1 Nov recalled ministerial delegation tasked to monitor process, parliamentary speaker and interior minister at odds over mid-Nov election of Sharif Hassan as interim leader of SW state; Hassan’s election prompted unrest in region, one protester died. At least fifteen reported killed 28-29 Nov in inter-clan clashes in Galgaduud, central Somalia.

Rwanda

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Two Rwandan League of Human Rights (LIPRODHOR) members arrested 21 Nov in Kigali, accused of forgery. New witness in former President Habyarimana 1994 plane crash case reportedly abducted 13 Nov.

DR Congo

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Ongoing attacks in Beni, N Kivu, attributed to Allied Defence Forces (ADF) militias: over 200 killed since early Oct, one attack targeted MONUSCO vehicles; several arrested, govt and opposition traded accusations of political complicities. MONUSCO reinforcements sent to region; govt imposed curfew 25 Nov; 5 FARDC killed 27 Nov in Dungu. Disarmament program for FDLR rebels slow, 600 alleged FDLR weapons destroyed 27 Nov in Goma; M23 absent from evaluation meeting on implementation of Nairobi declarations held 7 Nov in Kinshasa. Govt 14 Nov announced launch of “Operation Likofi Three” to fight rising crime in Kinshasa.

Cameroon

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Clashes in Far North between Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram (BH) and security forces; BH 8 Nov attacked Kerawa, Doumba, Karanchi, Kolofata, Kidjimatari, Limani and Amchide towns; one soldier, three civilians and 187 BH members reportedly killed. Some 13,000 additional Nigerian refugees crossed border into Cameroon after BH attack on Mubi town, Nigeria. Former Minister and President Biya ally Mendozé Gervais arrested 12 Nov in ongoing anti-corruption operation; Special Criminal Court 18 Nov held hearing for govt Minister Paul Atangana Nji, accused of embezzlement of state funds.

Burundi

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Cabinet reshuffle 28 Nov saw chief of cabinet and head of secret services, both considered key allies of President Nkurunziza, replaced. Organisation of June 2015 elections criticised by opposition and civil society, with allegations municipal and provincial electoral commission are dominated by President Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party, and concerns voter registration that began 24 Nov easily rigged. Cassam Utee appointed Special Envoy and Head of UN electoral mission to Burundi, early electoral observation mission to start 1 Jan 2015. Security deteriorated in Bujumbura: several attacks by armed gangs throughout month; govt 3 Nov warned of Al-Shabaab threat, two arrested.

Burkina Faso

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Transition govt announced 23 Nov following former President Compaoré’s late-Oct ouster and army’s 1 Nov seizure of power under Presidential Guard Second-in-Command Lieutenant Colonel Yacouba Isaac Zida. Army holds several posts, including defence, home affairs and mining. International pressure for return to civilian rule followed: AU 3 Nov declared two-week deadline for transfer of power, threatened sanctions. Negotiations for transition charter between army, political opposition, civil society, customary and religious chiefs ended 13 Nov; constitution restored 15 Nov; transition charter signed and civilian Michel Kafando appointed transitional president 16 Nov. Kafando 19 Nov appointed Zida as PM, ensuring army will retain influence during transition. Head of Presidential Guard under Compaoré General Gilbert Diendéré removed from post by Kafando 27 Nov. PM Zida 27 Nov said investigation planned for murders committed under Compaoré, namely former head of state Thomas Sankara; same day called for extradition of Compaoré, currently in Morocco, to Burkina Faso.

South Sudan

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Renewed fighting between govt and SPLA-IO despite 7 Nov recommitment to peace deal, at which parties recommitted to cessation of hostilities under pressure from regional body IGAD, Troika (U.S., UK and Norway) and China. IGAD threatened sanctions if ceasefire broken. Talks due to resume in late Nov but now postponed “indefinitely”; no IGAD sanctions at 25 Nov expiry of two-week deadline set by IGAD for warring parties to reach power-sharing deal. SPLM-IO 10 Nov proposed elimination of VP position as part of transitional govt, seen by many as tactic to prolong negotiations; govt refused request. Parties late Nov traded accusations over reported attacks in Jonglei. UNMISS mandate extended 24 Nov with few changes. Canada 1 Nov imposed sanctions against rebel commander Peter Gatdet and presidential guard commander Marial Chanuong for violations of 23 Jan 2014 cessation of hostilities deal.

Central African Republic

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Sporadic clashes in Bangui 13-17 Nov; ex-Seleka fighters blocked two main roads in protest at confinement to camps, protested against relocation outside Bangui, asked for money. Allegations govt gave some CFA4.5mn to protesters to return to Beal camp; anti-balaka in turn demanded financial assistance. Outside capital, anti-balaka obstructed humanitarian aid by establishing checkpoints, confiscating money and other assistance. Split of ex-Seleka into three entities confirmed following 26 Oct establishment of Unité pour la Centrafrique (UPC) composed of Al Khatim rebels and Ali Darass Fulani supporters; Nouredine Adam’s Front Populaire pour la Renaissance en Centrafrique (FPRC) met in Kaga-Bandoro 2 Nov; third faction mostly composed of Gula and ex-Union des Forces Démocratiques pour le Rassemblement (UFDR) fighters gathered in Bria. All expressed willingness to participate in Jan national dialogue forum. International Contact Group met 11 Nov in Bangui, approved delay for presidential and legislative elections to Aug 2015. Former PM Martin Ziguélé 24 Nov declared presidential candidacy for 2015 polls, running on Mouvement pour la Libération du Peuple Centrafricain (MLCP) party platform.

Chad

  |  1 Dec 2014

Unchanged

Protests 11 Nov in southern cities Sarh, Moundou and N’Djamena against oil shortage, rising cost of basic commodities. University professors and lawyers 10 Nov went on strike over unpaid salaries, followed by students; five killed, several injured in police crackdown. French PM Valls and Defence Minister Le Drian 22 Nov visited HQ of French “Barkhane” military operation in N’Djamena, met President Déby.

Kenya

  |  1 Dec 2014

Deteriorated

Violence in north and coastal regions increased: Al-Shabaab 22 Nov attacked bus in Mandera, killing 28. UNSC condemned attack, govt 23 Nov said over 100 militants killed in two operations in Somalia targeting planners. Some twenty armed youths 3 Nov attacked Nyali military barracks, Mombasa; six youths shot dead, one arrested. Similar attack launched same day on administration police camp in Malindi. Four mosques closed early Nov, reopened 27 Nov, after raids by police and arrest of hundreds of youths. Nineteen police officers killed, 22 firearms stolen by suspected armed Pokot bandits in Kapendo area of Baringo county 1 Nov; Kenya Defence Forces deployed in joint disarmament operation with police, recovered stolen firearms but banditry continued. IED explosion in Mandera injured three 5 Nov; IED explosion wounded one in Garissa 31 Nov. Policeman shot, another injured in suspected Al-Shabaab attack near Dadaab refugee camp 29 Nov.

Nigeria

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Fierce clashes early Oct between govt forces and Boko Haram (BH) as military tried to retake Bazza, Michika and Madagali towns in NE Adamawa state; reports some 400 insurgents and up to 70 soldiers killed; hostilities declined mid-month, possibly due to BH attempts to consolidate control over existing territory. BH 2 Oct issued video purportedly of leader Shekau claiming he was still alive, said militants downed Nigerian airforce jet missing since early Sept; 6 Oct beheaded seven in Ngamdu, Borno state. Govt 17 Oct announced ceasefire with BH; many expressed doubts as BH stepped up attacks: 18 Oct seized Abadam, Borno state, killing over 40; same day abducted about 45 girls and women from two villages in Adamawa state; 22 Oct bombed bus station in Bauchi killing twelve; 31 Oct killed up to 30 in Gombe; 29 Oct attacked Mubi, second largest town in Adamawa state, killing many and seizing Army’s 234 Battalion HQ. Multi National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) killed over 25 BH fighters in Abadam 25 – 26 Oct. Diplomatic efforts to contain BH insurgency increased: President Jonathan 7 Oct met with regional leaders to finalise arrangements for 2,800-strong multinational force. Military authorities 15 Oct arraigned 59 soldiers for mutiny, conspiracy to mutiny. Intercommunal violence in middle belt regions continued: attack by suspected Fulani herdsmen on several villages in Riyom, Plateau state, killed twelve 2 Oct; 21 Oct attack on Kompany village, Nasarawa state, killed fifteen. In Niger Delta: armed gangs 23 Oct abducted six Nigerian oil workers in Bayelsa state; pirates 24 Oct hijacked gunboat, killed three policemen. Ongoing election-related violence: supporters of Rivers state governorship aspirant Nyesom Wike attacked opponents at ruling People’s Democratic Party meeting in Abuja 9 Oct; some 50 thugs 16 Oct attacked campaign rally of PDP governorship aspirant Senator Helen Esuene in Akwa Ibom state, seven seriously wounded. Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari 15 Oct declared intention to contest presidential candidacy for opposition All Progressives Congress (APC).

Niger

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Parliamentary session 1 Oct started without head of National Assembly Hama Amadou, exiled in France following warrant for arrest over baby trafficking accusations; Hama requested delay to 7 Oct; majority of opposition boycotted session. Govt spokesperson and Justice Minister Marou Amadou 26 Oct said Hama “no longer president of the National Assembly”; Hama supporters denied his removal. Nine security force members killed 30 Oct in Tillabéry region near Mali border; defence and interior ministries accused “terrorist elements”. Niger 7 Oct hosted regional summit to coordinate efforts to curb Boko Haram insurgency; multinational force of 700 soldiers planned to be operational by late-Nov. French Barkhane operation strengthened its presence in Madama, north-eastern Niger; French forces 10 Oct reportedly destroyed al-Qaeda convoy in northern Niger.

Mali

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Inter-Malian peace talks resumed 15 Oct in Algiers; international mediation team 15-17 Oct finalised “mid-term summary”, endorsed 18 Oct by “G5+” regional states and submitted to Malian parties for three day discussion 20 Oct; FM Abdoulaye Diop 25 Oct expressed satisfaction with most recent round of talks, Azawad Movements Coalition (alliance of northern rebel groups formed mid-Sept) late-Oct expressed strong disappointment. Armed violence in north continued to threaten peace process: violation of ceasefire reported 16 Oct following clashes between rival Tuareg groups in Tillit, south of Gao. Azawad Movements Coalition 28 Oct announced united military effort to stem insecurity in north; agreed to abide by May ceasefire. Jihadi attacks on MINUSMA troops continued: nine Nigerian peacekeepers killed in ambush on Menaka-Ansongo road, 3 Oct; three Senegalese peacekeepers injured 25 Oct in Kidal. FM Diop 8 Oct demanded UNSC create rapid intervention force to “efficiently fight terrorist elements”. French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian 24 Oct announced strengthened military presence in northern Mali; 29 Oct reported heavy fighting between French force Barkhane and AQIM-related group in Kidal region.

Liberia

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Ebola epidemic continued, with 4,249 confirmed cases as of 15 Oct; World Bank 8 Oct estimated impact on Liberia’s economy in 2014 could reach $66mn. Some 350 of 4,000 promised U.S. troops currently deployed. Govt criticised for turning Ebola crisis into governance crisis following President Johnson Sirleaf’s call for constitutional revisions to give executive vastly greater power. Justice Minister Christiana Tah 6 Oct resigned citing Johnson Sirleaf administration’s slow progress on corruption and lack of rule of law, accused her of blocking Justice department’s independent investigations.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

President Vaz pressed forward with reforms following Sept removal of controversial chief of staff Antonio Injai: former presidential candidate and Injai associate Nuno Nabiam, influential Party for Social Renovation (PRS) figure Artur Sanha removed from civil service during month. Despite internal debate, PRS leadership confirmed alliance with ruling Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC).

Guinea

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Political, social, and economic impact of Ebola epidemic continued; President Condé 3 Oct suggested delayed elections; suggestion echoed by pro-regime civil society leader Dansa Kourouma and senior member of ruling party Rally of the People of Guinea (RPG) Lansana Komara. Condé 22 Oct reshuffled cabinet, replaced energy and security ministers.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Trial of Simone Gbagbo, former first lady and leading opposition figure, delayed indefinitely 21 Oct due to logistical problems; charges include threats against the security of the state. Opposition Ivorian Patriotic Front leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan, also accused, said trials politically motivated, will not contribute to national or political reconciliation. Former Young Patriots leader Charles Blé Goudé 2 Oct appeared at International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. World Health Organisation 10 Oct urged Ivoirian govt to prepare for Ebola outbreak, said will send team to monitor 700km border with Liberia.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

ZANU-PF internal tensions over President Mugabe’s succession heightened ahead of Dec party congress as his wife Grace launched several attacks on contender VP Joice Mujuru, senior ZANU-PF members, military officials.

Madagascar

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Former President Ravalomanana “secretly” returned 12 Oct after five years exile, signalled intent to challenge legitimacy of President Rajaonarimampianina’s administration. AU, SADC condemned return as reckless, reiterated support for Rajaonarimampianina, reconciliation. Govt forces detained Ravalomanana, reportedly for own protection; crackdown on public demonstrations, police 18 Oct used tear gas to disperse pro-Ravalomanana.

Sudan

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Parallel govt-SPLM-N, govt-Darfur rebel group talks, postponed by AUHIP to 25 Oct, still delayed; govt said talks delayed as negotiators from ruling National Congress Party (NCP) preparing for party’s general convention, others travelling; SPLM-N 27 Oct said AUHIP extended invitation to resume talks 12 Nov. NCP general convention held 20-25 Oct; incumbent President Bashir selected as party’s presidential candidate, new consultative council elected. National Electoral Commission, NCP refused to postpone April 2015 general elections. Bashir chaired second meeting of national dialogue committee 19 Oct, discussed roadmap for national dialogue, Addis Ababa framework agreement, expansion of committee’s mandate. 83 political parties agreed to participate but opposition National Consensus Forces, armed Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) continued to demand end of war before dialogue. Several opposition parties including National Umma Party signed Teiba Charter calling for overthrow of Bashir regime. Sudan Armed Forces 10 Oct announced plans for major offensive on SRF in S Kordofan. Two UNAMID peacekeepers killed in attack by unidentified assailants in N Darfur.

Somalia

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Joint Somali National Army (SNA)/AMISOM operation 3 Oct liberated Adale, Middle Shabelle; strategic port town and last Al-Shabaab coastal stronghold Barawe, Lower Shabelle, 6 Oct. AMISOM troops also advanced toward Jilib, Middle Juba; Puntland security forces 1 Oct dislodged Al-Shabaab from long-standing stronghold in Galgala mountains. UNSG Ban visited 29 Oct, congratulated forces for advances against Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab attacks continued across country despite losses including: at least ten killed, fifteen injured in restaurant bombing in Mogadishu 12 Oct; seven killed near Beledweyne, Hiraan region, after SNA and Al-Shabaab clashed 21 Oct. Three-day dialogue in Garowe between Somali Federal Govt (SFG) and Puntland administration resulted in 12-point agreement announced 14 Oct. Political infighting between President Hassan Sheikh and PM Sheikh Ahmed emerged after president 25 Oct rejected PM’s cabinet reshuffle.

Kenya

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Attacks targeting security officers and county govt continued in Mandera County: Governor’s motorcade hit by roadside bomb 15 Oct, one injured; three civilians injured 30 Oct in bomb explosion targeting security officers in Mandera town. Intercommunal violence re-erupted in north: twenty, including seven security officers, killed 29 Oct in clashes between security forces and bandits along Baringo, Turkana counties border. Former lawmaker Guyo Halake, involved in brokering peace among local clans, killed 22 Oct in Moyale. Kwale Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) chairman Omar Mwamnuadzi arrested 15 Oct along with eleven youths, charged with holding illegal gathering and planning to breach peace; security officials continue to link MRC to June attacks in Mpeketoni, Lamu county, claimed by Al-Shabaab. Five suspected bombers attempting to cross border from Ethiopia killed by Kenyan military mid-Oct; police officer killed 18 Oct by gunmen in Liboi, near Somalia border. One killed, eight injured in clashes in Kakuma refugee camp 26 Oct. President Uhuru Kenyatta 8 Oct appeared at ICC.

Rwanda

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

First political debate held 14 Oct on potential revision of Rwandan constitution; proposed amendment would allow President Kagame to run for third term.

DR Congo

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Attacks attributed to Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) killed over 80, displaced thousands in N Kivu 2-17 Oct; population 22 Oct attacked MONUSCO base in Beni in protest; suspected ADF attack 30 Oct killed 14; President Kabila late Oct visited region, promised action; suspected ADF lynched 31 Oct in Beni. UN joint human rights office (UNJHRO) 9 Oct published report on M23 human rights violations, called for initiation of judicial enquiries; M23 denounced findings. UNJHRO 15 Oct published report on rights violations included extrajudicial executions by police in Kinshasa anti-gang operations; govt declared head of UNJHRO office “persona non-grata”. SADC met 18-20 Oct for mid-term evaluation, FDLR disarmament process due to end early Jan; no progress since last meeting.

Cameroon

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Skirmishes between Boko Haram (BH) and Cameroon army along Nigerian border increased: 28 BH fighters killed 4 Oct in Koubougue; BH 6 Oct fired rockets in Fotokol and Amchide, killed eight; BH 8 Oct killed eleven people in Mayo Tsanaga. Army 13-14 Oct crossed border into Nigeria, shelled BH positions in Gambaru Ngala; army reported 107 BH fighters killed during clashes near Amchide and Limani 15-16 Oct, 39 during clashes in Kolofata and Glawi 24-25 Oct. BH 11 Oct released 27 hostages including deputy PM Amadou Ali’s wife and ten Chinese kidnapped in May; reports hostages released in exchange for ransom, senior BH prisoners. Incursions by CAR armed groups continued on eastern border: three suspected anti-balaka killed 5 Oct; 10 suspected Seleka members killed 7 Oct by army in Garoua Boulai; nine Cameroonians kidnapped 25 Oct near Garoua Boulai.

Burundi

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged

Presence of Burundian army in S Kivu (DRC) confirmed 2 Oct by MONUSCO, reportedly fighting National Liberation Forces (FNL) rebels; reports army withdrew 7 Oct. FNL claimed responsibility for 6 Oct attack on Burundian troops in Gihanga, casualty numbers disputed. Provincial electoral commissions lists published 1 Oct; civil society and several political parties alleged members purportedly representing them in fact close to ruling party.

Burkina Faso

  |  1 Nov 2014

Deteriorated Risk Alert

President Compaoré 31 Oct resigned following intense pressure, violent protests over possible prolonging of his 27-year rule through constitutional amendment and intervention of military. Ruling Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) party 21 Oct announced constitutional amendment bill to prolong presidential term limits after dialogue between govt, opposition failed. Parliament building, city hall, and ruling party HQ set ablaze by protesters 30 Oct; 30 killed during protests, govt withdrew bill same day. Army announced creation of interim govt, dissolution of parliament but appears divided over who will rule; army chief General Honoré Traoré, and Presidential Guard’s second-in-command Colonel Isaac Zida both claimed to be head of state.

South Sudan

  |  1 Nov 2014

Unchanged Risk Alert

Warring parties preparing major offensives as hardliners appear determined to settle civil conflict through war: fighting continued throughout month, SPLA-IO 28 Oct launched major attacks on Bentiu prompting govt to threaten withdrawal from peace talks. UNSG Ban 30 Oct condemned renewed violence, urged parties to participate in negotiations, reach agreement on transitional arrangements. SPLM factions had late-Oct signed framework agreement on SPLM reform in Tanzania and accepted joint responsibility for war. Violence among Dinka clans and between civilians and SPLA following a forced disarmament campaign left hundreds dead in Lakes state. National Assembly 8 Oct passed controversial National Security Services bill; allows for arrests without warrants, shields officers from accountability, provides wide powers of surveillance and authority. MPs from ruling and opposition parties staged walkout after request for 72 hours to review revised bill rejected by Speaker of Assembly.

Central African Republic

  |  1 Nov 2014

Deteriorated

Violence escalated in Bangui as political tensions increased: grenade attack 7 Oct in Gobongo injured 25; anti-balaka mobilised throughout city and alleged assailant, Muslim from PK5 neighbourhood, killed; three killed in protests following day; MINUSCA soldier killed 9 Oct in ambush in PK11; anti-balaka 13-14 Oct looted Ouhango neighbourhood, reprisals left several dead. Delegation sent by Congo Brazzaville president to Bangui 18 Oct called for hastening of transition process. Violence also continued outside capital: ten killed in IDP camp in Bambari 1 Oct following murder of three young Muslims; French “Sangaris” forces clashed with ex-Seleka in Dékoa 10 Oct; sporadic clashes along Cameroon border (see Cameroon). MINUSCA deployment in east continued. Seleka divided between Gula and Fulani factions: Ali Darassa (leader of Fulani fighters) and Al-Khatim 25 Oct created new movement “Unité pour la paix en Centrafrique”; “General Assembly” by other Seleka leaders planned. Samba-Panza increasingly isolated; anti-balaka and Seleka members of govt called for her resignation following disappearance of tranche of Angolan aid; Samba-Panza said embezzlement accusations and 16 Oct National Transitional Council (CNT) investigation were conspiracy to overthrow govt; CNT late Oct dropped investigation. Samba-Panza addressed nation 22 Oct, called for end to impunity, announced creation of new military unit in Bangui.

Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged Resolution Opportunity

Armed opposition Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), political opposition National Umma Party (NUP), National Dialogue 7+7 Committee 4 Sept signed statement of principles on inclusive national dialogue under auspices of African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), breaking months of deadlock. President Bashir, ruling National Congress Party (NCP) welcomed agreement; authorities 3 Sept released Sudanese Congress Party (SCP) Sec Gen Samia Kiir, arrested 11 July; 15 Sept released SCP head Ibrahim El Sheikh, detained since 8 June. National Consensus Forces (NCF) continued to boycott national dialogue; representative Mohamed Hassan Babiker detained in Khartoum 12 Sept. AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) 15 Sept praised positive developments, endorsed AUHIP-led meeting of parties and sequenced cessation of hostilities in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur; urged international community to consider sanctions lift, debt relief, economic support. AUHIP head Mbeki to lead meetings with govt, rebel groups in Oct; but Bashir 27 Sept said NUP leader al-Mahdi to return to Sudan only after rescinding Aug Paris Declaration, 30 Sept rejected SRF participation in talks, ruled out comprehensive solution to conflicts. UNAMID and joint chief mediator for Darfur Mohamed Ibn Chambas to step down, welcomed Mbeki’s leadership in mediation.

Sudan

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged Resolution Opportunity

Armed opposition Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), political opposition National Umma Party (NUP), National Dialogue 7+7 Committee 4 Sept signed statement of principles on inclusive national dialogue under auspices of African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), breaking months of deadlock. President Bashir, ruling National Congress Party (NCP) welcomed agreement; authorities 3 Sept released Sudanese Congress Party (SCP) Sec Gen Samia Kiir, arrested 11 July; 15 Sept released SCP head Ibrahim El Sheikh, detained since 8 June. National Consensus Forces (NCF) continued to boycott national dialogue; representative Mohamed Hassan Babiker detained in Khartoum 12 Sept. AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) 15 Sept praised positive developments, endorsed AUHIP-led meeting of parties and sequenced cessation of hostilities in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur; urged international community to consider sanctions lift, debt relief, economic support. AUHIP head Mbeki to lead meetings with govt, rebel groups in Oct; but Bashir 27 Sept said NUP leader al-Mahdi to return to Sudan only after rescinding Aug Paris Declaration, 30 Sept rejected SRF participation in talks, ruled out comprehensive solution to conflicts. UNAMID and joint chief mediator for Darfur Mohamed Ibn Chambas to step down, welcomed Mbeki’s leadership in mediation.

Niger

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Opposition figure and head of National Assembly Hama Amadou accused of complicity in baby trafficking, 7 Sept fled to France, said probe politically-motivated, accused govt of attempted poisoning; FM Bazoum Mohamed denied accusations; court 26 Sept issued national arrest warrant for Amadou. Ten opposition MPs 16 Sept filed lawsuit for misuse of public funds following announcement of new €30mn presidential plane. Authorities 1 Sept authorised 2nd U.S. drone base in Agadez; France Defence Minister Le Drian 9 Sept said Barkhane operation to extend in northern Niger, possibly southern Libya. Influx of Nigerian refugees fleeing Boko Haram violence continued in south-east.

Nigeria

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Militant Islamist group Boko Haram (BH) early Sept seized several north-eastern towns; 8 Sept ambushed army platoon in Baza, killing 24 soldiers, wounding scores, including former President Obasanjo’s son. 20 dead, 34 wounded in suicide attack in Kano 17 Sept. Govt forces mid-Sept slowed BH advance: 12 Sept killed 50 insurgents in Kawuri; 12, 17 Sept repulsed attacks on Konduga, killing scores including commander who had featured in group’s videos; about 300 BH fighters “surrendered”. President Jonathan 8 Sept discussed counter-insurgency cooperation with Chad President Deby; Senate 17 Sept called on Jonathan to declare “total war” on BH. Australian self-appointed negotiator Stephen Davis early Sept accused former Borno state governor Sheriff, former army chief Ihejirika, Central Bank official of sponsoring BH; state security service investigated Sheriff; Sheriff and Ihejirika rejected accusations. Military court 16 Sept sentenced 12 soldiers to death for May 2014 mutiny at Maimalari cantonment, Maiduguri; sentence criticised by several civil society groups. Deadly inter-communal violence continued in Middle Belt killing over 200: 60 in Nasarawa 2 Sept; 70 in Taraba 2, 14 Sept; over 20 in Zamfara 7 Sept; about 60 in Kaduna 17, 27 Sept. Ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 17 Sept endorsed Jonathan as candidate for 2015 presidential election, ahead of Dec party’s primaries.

Mali

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Inter-Malian peace talks resumed 1 Sept in Algiers. Northern rebel groups HCUA, MNLA, MAA-dissidence, MAA, CPA 12 Sept signed alliance supporting federal solution for Azawad; CMPFR rejected alliance. Three CPA officials 16 Sept dismissed group’s president Ibrahim ag Assaleh for failing to consult with party leadership before signing alliance, ag Assaleh fired mutineers; MAA under similar tensions. MAA splinter group MPSA, SCA 15 Sept complained of exclusion from talks. Govt 18 Sept unveiled regionalisation plan for Azawad, rejected by pro-Azawad coalition. Talks suspended 27 Sept to 13 Oct. Pro-unity march in Bamako 25 Sept. Jihadi attacks continued in Kidal region: 10 Chadian MINUSMA peacekeepers killed, scores wounded in IED attacks; five Tuaregs abducted 16 Sept, 4 released, 1 found killed 23 Sept. AQIM-affiliated Algerian arrested by security forces 13 Sept. President IBK 4 Sept celebrated 1st year in office; 8-13 Sept visited China, secured investments. Opposition 7 Sept denounced general lack of progress; PM Moussa Mara increasingly criticised by majority.

Liberia

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Authorities 4 Sept postponed Oct senatorial elections to Dec amid Ebola outbreak; President Johnson Sirleaf 13 Sept dismissed 10 govt officials for failing to return home to fight epidemic; Information Minister Lewis Brown 22 Sept warned country could relapse into conflict. World Bank warned of impact to economy; human rights advocates reported growing restrictions to media freedom; U.S. President Obama 16 Sept announced 3,000 troops, 17 treatment centres, health training. Martina Johnson, ex-commander of rebel National Patriotic Front of Liberia, arrested in Belgium 18 Sept, charged with international war crimes committed during civil war.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
President Vaz 15 Sept dismissed head of armed forces General Antonio Indjai, leader of 2012 coup and indicted by U.S. for narco-terrorism; dismissal key moment in new regime’s 1stspate of dismissals and designations; Vaz 17 Sept named well-respected veteran General Biague Nantam as new army chief.

Guinea

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) figure Amadou Oury Diallo murdered 15 Sept in Conakry; UFDG said murder political assassination. After pro-opposition websites asserted President Condé had health problems, Condé accused opposition of fuelling tension, attempting to push for military coup. Dialogue on electoral preparations remained stalled. Condé 9 Sept declared “war on Ebola”; 8 Ebola outreach delegates killed by villagers in Womey 16 Sept; 27 suspects arrested 24 Sept

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Two main opposition parties Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) and Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF) 9 Sept suspended participation in new Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), condemned pro-Ouattara diplomat Youssouf Bakayoko’s reappointment to commission chair. FPI’s internal battle over participation in presidential election continued; party hardliners 1 Sept ransacked Abidjan party HQ. Former president Bédié 17 Sept endorsed President Ouattara for 2015 re-election; Bédié’s Democratic Party of Cote d’Ivoire (PDCI) will not present own candidate. Akuedo military compound attacked 18 Sept, 6 attackers arrested, unclear whether former rebellion members.

Burkina Faso

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
81 ruling Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) MPs 13 Sept called for President Compaoré to organise referendum to remove constitutional 2-term limit; opposition Union for Progress and Change (UPC), Movement of People for Progress (MPP) opposed; parties met 25 Sept; 29 Sept agreed to inclusive dialogue under Compaoré’s leadership. Several MPP members allegedly resigned early Sept.

Zimbabwe

  |  1 Oct 2014

Unchanged
Amid President Mugabe’s succession battle, army chief 15 Sept said army to stay above politics; ruling Zanu-PF, opposition MDC-T still divided. As economic downturn continued, Central Bank early Sept confirmed repayment of $180mn to China in 1st half of 2014 to keep credit line, 5 Sept issued $50mn bond to import coins; IMF 23 Sept announced country not entitled to debt relief.
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