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CrisisWatch Database

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2498 results found
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Burundi

  |  1 Apr 2015

Deteriorated

Increased social discontent, including 3 March general strike against high cost of living, and deepening political tensions over President Nkurunziza’s potential third term. Ruling CNDD-FDD meeting 11 March exposed discontent among party members: party leaders (“Wise Men Council”) 14 March opposed Nkurunziza’s presidential candidacy; CNDD-FDD President Nyabenda 24 March condemned petition against Nkurunziza’s third term signed by 73 of party’s senior executive, ten excluded from party next day. Former CNDD-FDD party leader Hussein Radjabu early March escaped jail, rumours he was aided by party officials. Party hardliners including generals and “Imbonerakure” youth movement reportedly organising terror campaign to support Nkurunziza’s candidacy: General Nshimirimana 7 March announced he would use “any means” to ensure Nkurunziza is CNDD-FDD candidate. Former intelligence chief’s wife and opposition National Liberation Forces (FNL) leader Agathon Rwasa’s wife survived assassination attempts 8 and 15 March respectively. Electoral commission (CENI) 21-23 March reopened voter registration.

Niger

  |  2 Mar 2015

Deteriorated

Series of violent Boko Haram (BH) attacks in Diffa region targeting Bosso and Diffa cities. Attacks prompted increasingly strong govt response. Defence Minister Mahamadou Karidjo 6 Feb said 100 BH insurgents, four soldiers died during attack on Bosso; same day bombing of Diffa compelled Chadian, Nigerien forces to launch airstrikes on BH position. Bomb detonated in Diffa central market 9 Feb killed five, wounded twenty. Parliament 10 Feb voted unanimously to send 750 soldiers to reinforce regional military cooperation, authorised army to fight on Nigerian territory as part of regional response against BH insurgency. Authorities 17 Feb arrested some 160 suspected of BH links: thousands same day took to streets in support of army. National Assembly 26 Feb voted unanimously to extend Diffa state of emergency for three months.

Mali

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Govt and rebel groups 1 March signed preliminary peace deal; main Tuareg armed coalition, including National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) and Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) same day requested delay for further consultations before signing agreement. Fifth round of peace negotiations began 16 Feb in Algiers, ceasefire signed 19 Feb between govt and six armed groups despite tensions following string of clashes between pro-govt and rebel groups, including: Gatia 3 Feb launched attack on Coordination of Movement of Azawad (CMA) forces near Tabankort, some ten killed; CMA 13 Feb clashed with pro-govt forces at Takazkaza, 40km from Tabankort. Mopti region also suffered attacks: group of armed men 14 Feb attacked Gathi-Loumo, clashed with govt troops, four assailants and two soldiers killed.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Constitutional reform commission was inaugurated on 16 February. UNSC 18 February renewed UN Integrated Office in Guinea-Bissau mandate until 29 February 2016.

Guinea

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Deadlock between govt and opposition over electoral preparations continued, EU and UN Office for West Africa began separate consultations with both sides. Protests 2-4 Feb against civil service changes in opposition stronghold Labé left some 50 injured. Assassination of former Minister Thierno Alioune Diaouné, civil society leader serving with UN, prompted accusations against regime by opposition supporters.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Divisions within political parties persisted: Ivoirian Popular Front (FPI) President Pascal Affi N’Guessan continued to clash with party hardliners; four Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) members expressed desire to contest Oct elections, refused to support President Ouattara’s re-election bid, said they would not attend 28 Feb PDCI party congress. PDCI president Henri Konan Bédié 28 Feb announced no PDCI candidate in election, reaffirmed support for ruling Rally of the Republicans (RDR) President Ouattara’s re-election bid. Authority for DDR late-Jan estimated 28,000 former combatants yet to be reintegrated; General Chief of Staff Soumaila Bakayoko 11 Feb said military unable to integrate more.

Burkina Faso

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Transition saw most serious crisis yet when presidential guard (RSP) 4 Feb demanded resignation of PM Zida, called for their unit not to be dissolved, and for senior military appointments to be reconsidered, specifically the replacement of Théophile Nikiéma, a Zida associate, as president’s personal chief of staff. Compromise reached 7 Feb: RSP accepted Zida remain in office; Zida accepted appointment of former Compaoré associates colonel-major Boureima Kéré as president’s personal chief of staff and lieutenant-colonel Joseph Moussa Céleste Coulibaly as RSP commander. Thousands demonstrated 7 Feb, called for dismantlement of RSP. Members of former ruling Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) 1 Feb created new political party, New Alliance of Faso (NAFA), supporting presidential candidacy of former FM Djibirl Bassolé. Colonel Yacouba Ouédraogo 14 Feb announced candidacy with new Union for a New Burkina (UBN) party.

Uganda

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Uganda and Sudan 9 Feb agreed to form joint technical security mechanism: Uganda announced it had expelled Sudanese rebels, reportedly Sudan will cooperate in apprehending remaining LRA rebels believed to be hiding in Darfur. Dr Aggrey Kiyingi, linked to Federal Alliance rebels reportedly connected to Allied Democratic Force rebel group, 12 Feb announced he will challenge President Museveni in 2016 elections.

South Sudan

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

IGAD-led negotiations ended 2 Feb without peace deal; President Kiir and former VP and SPLM-IO leader Machar recommitted to ceasefire, signed document outlining areas of agreement/disagreement regarding proposed transitional govt. Disputes remain over structure of executive. Delayed negotiations began 23 Feb; Kiir reversed previous commitment to attend; 5 March deadline still remains amid scepticism deal will be reached. Small clashes continued in Unity and Upper Nile states. Murle South Sudan Democratic Army-Cobra Faction (SSDA-CF) splinter group 13 Feb defected from govt, pledged allegiance to SPLA-IO. UN confirmed gunmen 14 Feb abducted at least 89 boys, now training as child soldiers, from Wau Shilluk near Malakal, Upper Nile state; thousands of children already fighters. Defence minister 3 Feb signed new Status of Forces agreement with Ugandan counterpart; Ugandan troops may remain in S Sudan another four months. Govt 13 Feb suspended elections scheduled for June for two years as negotiations continue. Kiir 24 Feb issued executive order reversing dismissal of senior party members.

Somalia

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Parliament 9 Feb approved PM Abdirashidi Ali Shamarke’s third proposed cabinet list, ending months of govt paralysis following ouster of former PM Abdiweli early Dec. Al-Shabaab attacks continued throughout country including: 25 killed, 40 wounded in 20 Feb suicide attack on Mogadishu hotel; mortar rounds fired at presidential compound in Mogadishu 26 Feb; two army bases in Lower Shabelle region attacked 10 Feb. Al-Shabaab 9 Feb killed MP Abdullahi Qayed Barre in Mogadishu, 15 Feb killed govt official. Joint AMISOM/Somali National Army (SNA) campaign against Al-Shabaab continued including 3 Feb Kenyan airstrikes against several Al-Shabaab camps in Yontoy, Lower Juba region. Puntland forces 13 Feb clashed with Al-Shabaab in Madashoor area, claimed sixteen militants killed. Puntland officials accused Somaliland of supporting Al-Shabaab factions in Golis mountains after Al-Shabaab 3 Feb attacked police station in Bossaso; 7 Feb attacked home of senior Puntland police official: Somaliland denied accusations. Clashes erupted 10 and 25 Feb between SNA and Sufi militia Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa (ASWJ) in Guriel, Galgaduug region, leaving at least fifteen dead. U.S. 24 Feb nominated first ambassador to Somalia since 1991, to be based in Nairobi.

Kenya

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

MP shot dead in Nairobi 7 Feb, along with two bodyguards and driver. Five suspected Mombasa Republican Council recruits arrested 25 Feb in Kisauni, Mombasa County. Mombasa’s Minaa mosque, closed by govt 19 Nov following police raid, reopened 12 Feb with interim imam and committee following settlement between govt officials and local Muslims.

Nigeria

  |  2 Mar 2015

Deteriorated

Month saw increasing Boko Haram (BH) and election-related violence ahead of postponed polls, while military launched major offensive against Boko Haram (BH). Defence authorities 2 Feb said they retook Gamboru and four other towns near Lake Chad following combined operations by govt troops, civilian vigilantes, Chadian and Cameroonian forces. Authorities 18 Feb reported intensive operations around BH’s Sambisa Forest stronghold liberated eleven communities, some 300 insurgents reportedly killed; 19 Feb reported Special Forces, aided by Air Force and Chadian troops, reclaimed Dikwa local govt area, Borno state, some 117 insurgents killed. BH attacks continued: attack 19 Feb in Gaya village in Hong local govt area of Adamawa state killed 30 residents; some seventeen killed by explosives thrown from car in Jos, Plateau state. BH suicide bombings continued in Gombe, Yobe, Borno states, killing over 100 in Feb including 22 Feb bombing of market in Potiskum by seven-year old and 16 Feb attack on Damaturu bus station by teenager. Electoral Commission (INEC) 7 Feb postponed planned Feb elections: presidential and national polls delayed to 28 March, governorship and state polls to 11 April. Opposition All Progressive’s Congress (APC) condemned postponement, warned it would resist any further delay. Election-related violence increased with deadly incidents recorded almost daily: National Human Rights Commission (NHCR) 13 Feb reported 58 killed in election-related violence since Dec. People’s Democratic Party (PDP) thugs 17 Feb attacked APC rally with explosives, guns in Okrika, Rivers state, two killed, 50 wounded; Rivers APC chair called for international attention to rising violence.

Zimbabwe

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Tensions within ruling ZANU-PF remained high amid continued decimation of former VP Mujuru’s faction. Mujuru allies Ray Kaukonde and Enock Porisingazi stripped of seats as chairs of Parliamentary Portfolios 12 Feb. Former ZANU-PF member Didymus Mutasa attacked in state media for declaring Dec party congress unconstitutional, former ZANU-PF provincial chairman Temba Mliswa arrested 1 Feb for illegal weapons possession; both expelled from ZANU-PF 18 Feb. EU mid-Feb committed €230mn for govt support.

Madagascar

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

High Constitutional Court 12 Feb upheld President Rajaonarimampianina’s 15 Jan appointment of PM Jean Ravelonarivo following legal challenge by former coup leader Rajoelina. Rajoelina and former President Zafy 19 Feb withdrew from Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM)-led reconciliation process; Rajoelina cited continued disagreement with PM appointment and lack of meaningful action toward reconciliation. FFKM 20 Feb insisted reconciliation process would continue with remaining former leaders and current president.

Rwanda

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

DRC and Rwandan officials 3 Feb met to accelerate repatriation of 718 former M23 rebels to DRC, no specific agenda agreed. Defence Minister early-Feb criticised UN Force Intervention Brigade troop-contributing countries South Africa and Tanzania for lack of intervention against FDLR, accused latter of collaborating with rebel group. FM Mushikiwabo 12 Feb criticised MONUSCO’s inaction on FDLR issue.

DR Congo

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Following Jan violent protests, President Kabila 18 Feb promulgated amended version of controversial electoral law. Electoral Commission (CENI) 12 Feb published 2015-2016 electoral calendar, condemned by opposition for lack of consensus or realism. UN 13 Feb said it would not support FARDC military operations until controversial commanders in N Kivu replaced. President Kabila 16 Feb reaffirmed decision to launch unilateral military operations against FDLR rebels, operations began 24 Feb in S Kivu. Conflict between Bantu and pygmies flared in Manono district, N Katanga, leaving seven dead mid-Feb.

Cameroon

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Regional response to Boko Haram (BH) formulated amid ongoing attacks: international meeting on Joint Multinational Force (FMM) held 5-7 Feb in Yaoundé, regional joint multinational force of 8,700 soldiers announced, based in N’Djamena: Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) 16 Feb announced emergency aid of FCFA 50bn to joint Cameroon-Chad “Operation Logone 2015” force established late Jan to fight BH. Several clashes between BH, Cameroonian forces: deadliest BH attack killed 86 civilians and seven soldiers in Fotokol 4 Feb; five soldiers killed, seven wounded in 16 Feb BH ambush on Waza-Kousseri axis; 21 BH killed by armed forces in 21 Feb Tolkomari clashes. 25 Cameroonian hostages escaped BH 20 Feb. Two marches held early Feb demonstrating support for security forces; third, larger march in Yaoundé 28 Feb.

Burundi

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Domestic opposition to President Nkurunziza’s potential third term increased: coalition of civil society organisations 4 Feb published warning letter to president; 11 Feb said his candidacy will lead to violence. Head of intelligence service Godefroid Niyombare dismissed 18 Feb, allegedly for warning president of risk of violence should he attempt third term, replaced with Etienne Ntakirutimana 24 Feb. Journalist Bob Rugurika, arrested 20 Jan, released 19 Feb, greeted by thousands of sympathisers in Bujumbura. Human Rights Watch 12 Feb accused security forces, ruling party youth wing “Imbonerakure” of 47 extrajudicial executions during 30 Dec-3 Jan clash with armed group in Cibitoke province near DRC border. Pro-govt demonstrations throughout country 28 Feb, organised by authorities.

Central African Republic

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Clashes between ex-Seleka and international forces in Bria left six ex-Seleka dead 10 Feb, civilian death toll unknown. Opposition to controversial Kenyan mediation process between some ex-Seleka and anti-balaka factions continued: UN 8 February called for end to Kenyan process; former Presidents Bozize and Djotodia signed “commitment declaration” 21 Feb agreeing to respect July 2014 ceasefire agreement. Sport Minister Armel Sayo, kidnapped 25 Jan, released 10 Feb. Month saw frequent robberies and attacks against NGOs in various towns. Transitional Council 16 Feb began constitution-drafting process.

Chad

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Authorities stepped up response to Boko Haram (BH) regional attacks: troops crossed border 11 and 13 Feb to repel attacks on Gamboru, N Nigeria, and again 24 Feb; 207 BH and one Chadian soldier reported killed. BH 13 Feb launched first attack on Chadian territory, targeting Ngouboua near Nigerian border. Chad 16 Feb launched U.S.-backed counter-terrorism exercise, gathering troops from African and Western states. French FM Fabius 21 Feb met President Deby in N’Djamena to discuss fight against BH.

Sudan

  |  2 Mar 2015

Unchanged

Fighting continued in S Kordofan: SPLM-N claimed al-Jineziya, Angartu and Um Turuq-Turuq taken 14-16 Feb. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 12 Feb claimed SPLM-N attack on recently recaptured areas repelled. Election campaigning began 24 Feb amid continued crackdown on civil society and media. Opposition National Consensus Forces umbrella group, several other opposition parties and Muslim Brotherhood announced boycott of elections; Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) only mainstream opposition party not boycotting polls. Civilian opposition, civil society and armed rebel signatories to 4 Dec“Sudan Call” met in Berlin 25-27 Feb to discuss peace, national dialogue: govt not included in talks. New chief of UN forces in disputed Abyei enclave 17 Feb called for resumption of dialogue between Sudan and South Sudan; UNSC 26 Feb renewed mandate of UN mission to Abyei, called for resumption of Abyei Joint Oversight Commission (AJOC) discussions on June 2011 demilitarisation agreement. AJOC co-chair 13 Feb announced AJOC meeting late Feb. Intercommunal clashes increased in area amid rising tensions between Misseriya nomads and sedentary Ngok Dinka.

Niger

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Large demonstrations in Niamey, Agadez, Zinder 16-17 Jan over President Issoufou’s participation in 11 Jan Paris march against Charlie Hebdo attack; bars, churches, offices of ruling Nigerien Party for Socialism and Democracy (PSDN) burned, dozens arrested. Interior ministry 18 Jan banned opposition march; PM Brigi Rafini same day urged calm. Govt 22 Jan blocked social networking sites throughout country, interior minister same day noted move was to avoid disturbances before 23 Jan day of prayer; connections reopened same day. President Issoufou 27 Jan announced increased cooperation with Algerian President Bouteflika to stem jihadi threat in Sahel. Diffa Mayor expressed concerns about Boko Haram (BH) popularity among youth. Humanitarian situation continued to deteriorate in Diffa region, host to some 150,000 Nigerian refugees; govt 27 Jan lifted 2013 ban on refugee camps in south. Chadian troops early-Jan present in eastern Niger for offensive against BH; 8 Jan entered northern Nigeria and took over Malam Fatori occupied by BH since Oct. Court 30 Jan dropped baby trafficking case against former National Assembly head Hama Amadou.

Mali

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Attacks in north continued to threaten Algiers peace process. Heavy fighting resumed 16-18 Jan between pro-govt and pro-Azawad groups in Tilemsi valley near Tabankort; clashes 27-28 Jan left 10 dead in Tabankort region; clashes 31 Jan in Kano village, near Timbuktu left one dead, twenty kidnapped. PM Moussa Mara 8 Jan resigned, replaced by former PM and high representative for inter-Malian inclusive dialogue Modibo Keita; new govt includes former presidential candidates Dramane Dembélé, Shoguel Kokal Maiga. MINUSMA forces 20 Jan fired on northern rebel groups near Tabankort; UN forces alleged rebels shot first, MNLA claimed MINUSMA initiated clash. Tuareg rebels 23 Jan suspended coordination with UN mission. Anti-MINUSMA demonstrations erupted in Gao 6 Jan after agreement between MINUSMA, rebels leaked online; clashes 27 Jan between anti-MINUSMA protesters and UN peacekeepers left 3 dead; UNSG said will launch inquiry, President Keita (IBK) 29 Jan visited Gao in bid to reduce tensions. Rebel attacks on MINUSMA continued with several wounded and one killed during month. Malian army also suffered attacks including 5 Jan attack by AQIM in Nampala city, near border with Mauritania, that left eight dead.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Tensions between President Vaz and PM Pereira persisted. Natural Resource Minister Daniel Gomes said nothing known about $13mn paid by Angola for bauxite mine, perceived as attack on Vaz, finance minister at time.

Guinea

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Dispute over electoral preparations intensified, dialogue with opposition stalled. Opposition early-Jan accused President Condé of unlawfully modifying law regulating National Institution for the Defense of Human Rights (INIDH) to his advantage; local rights NGO 6 Jan withdrew representation from INIDH. Opposition held anti-Condé rallies 7 and 22 Jan, restated demands for electoral commission reform.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Divisions within ruling Popular Ivoirian Front (FPI) and opposition Democratic Party of Cote d’Ivoire (PDCI) persisted. Former President Gbagbo’s lawyers said they would appeal late-Dec invalidation of his FPI candidacy, further postponing FPI congress. Hearings began 6 Jan in trial of former First Lady Simone Gbagbo and 81 co-accused charged with crimes related to 2010-2011 post-election violence. Security forces attacked by fifteen assailants in Grabo town in SW 9-10 Jan, two soldiers killed.

Burkina Faso

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

President Kafando 22 Jan announced presidential and legislative elections will take place 11 Oct following early-Jan discussion over election dates, composition of electoral commission; also announced diaspora not eligible to vote. UN mission 12-23 Jan assessed electoral needs, cost estimated at 50bn FCFA. New party Patriotic Governance for Revival-Patriotic Movement (COR/MP) 17 Jan named Jean-Baptiste Natama as candidate. Former ruling party Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) resumed operations following President Kafando’s 31 Dec lifting of its suspension.

  • Crisis Group Africa Report N°222, Burkina Faso: Nine Months to Complete the Transition, 28 Jan 2015. Three months after Blaise Compaoré’s departure, Burkina Faso’s transition is moving forward in an uncertain context. The provisional government, with the help of its international partners, should initiate urgent reforms and ensure the October 2015 elections allow for peaceful, democratic change.

Uganda

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Following late Dec killings of two Muslim clerics, third cleric survived assassination attempt 3 Jan near Kampala; police claimed killings reprisals by rebel Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) against former supporters; eighteen charged late Jan.

South Sudan

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Multiple mediation processes ongoing, leading to multiple, uncoordinated agreements and processes. Three SPLM factions (govt, SPLM-IO, and separate negotiating group “SPLM 7”) 21 Jan signed symbolic agreement to “reunify” following talks mediated by Tanzania; China held talks between govt and SPLM-IO in Khartoum 12 Jan. Delayed IGAD summit postponed to 31 Jan; President Kiir and former VP and SPLM-IO leader Machar 29 Jan met in Addis Ababa to discuss terms of possible agreement. Fighting continued in Unity, Upper Nile states. SPLM-IO accused govt troops, police, pro-govt militia of series of attacks; govt counter-claimed, IGAD investigating. Warring parties clashed in Unity oil fields 5 Jan. Clashes continued in Lakes state, including attempt on life of caretaker governor; casualties now higher in Lakes conflict than in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity.

Somalia

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

New PM Omar Abdirashidi Ali Shamarke 27 Jan announced his new cabinet list; withdrew previous proposed list following opposition by parliament ahead of scheduled vote. Al-Shabaab attacks continued: two killed in 10 Jan IED attack in Kismayo, Lower Juba; one killed 14 Jan in explosion targeting soldiers in Bossaso, Bari; five killed 22 Jan in bomb attack outside Mogadishu hotel hosting meeting of Turkish officials, day ahead of visit by Turkish PM Erdoğan. Al-Shabaab blockade of towns in south and central Somalia previously liberated in 2014 AMISOM-Somali National Army (SNA) offensive continued. AMISOM-SNA 23 Jan captured Bulo Jadid, Bulo Yusuf and El Jarmed villages in Bakol region. Five killed 27 Jan in clash between Kenyan forces and Al-Shabaab in Yontoy, Lower Juba region. Over twenty killed in clan clashes 21 Jan in Burdhinle and Hada-Ogle, Hiraan region. Several militants and four civilians reportedly killed 31 Jan in airstrike targeting Al-Shabaab in Dinsoor town, Bay region.

Kenya

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

High Court 2 Jan temporarily dismissed eight clauses of controversial Security Act, passed 18 Dec, following petition by opposition coalition and civil society. Christian priest shot dead 11 Jan by unknown gunmen in Mombasa. Army 14 Jan announced five suspected Al-Shabaab militants and one soldier killed when militants attacked army truck in Lamu county. Suspect linked to Dec Mandera quarry attack arrested late Jan. Tensions over county borders continued, one killed 9 Jan in clash between Maasai and Kisii along Kisii-Narok border.

Nigeria

  |  2 Feb 2015

Deteriorated

Boko Haram (BH) insurgency continued in north with perhaps most deadly attack yet. BH 3 Jan launched attack on Baga, Borno state in Lake Chad region, seizing town and nearby Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) base, reportedly killing hundreds, possibly thousands; seen as major defeat for govt, strategic victory for insurgents. Other BH attacks include: 25 Jan attack on Borno state capital Maiduguri reportedly repelled by army, some 200 insurgents killed, but BH took military base north of city; 1 Feb attack on Borno state capital Maiduguri repelled by govt forces, some 80 insurgents killed. BH continued suicide bombings in Gombe, Borno, Yobe states, some 50 killed throughout Jan. AU 29 Jan agreed to deploy 7,500-strong multinational force to fight BH, plans to lobby UNSC to finance operation. Independent National Electoral Commission 14 Jan indicated Feb elections will not be held in “high risk” areas of Borno, Adamawa, Yobe states. Pre-election violence continued despite 14 Jan pledge by presidential candidates, including People’s Democratic Party (PDP) incumbent President Jonathan, opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Gen Buhari, not to incite violence: APC and PDP supporters clashed in several states, offices and vehicles burnt; seven APC members shot 6 Jan by opposition thugs in Rivers state; APC secretariats in Okrika and Ngo communities of Rivers state bombed 11, 16 Jan. National Conscience Party (NCP) parliamentary candidate abducted 12 Jan in Bayelsa state. National security adviser 22 Jan urged electoral commission to delay Feb elections; opposition rejected call, commission 23 Jan confirmed elections will be held 14 Feb. Nineteen vigilantes killed by bandits in Zamfara State 14 Jan; 14 killed as suspected Fulani herdsmen attacked two villages inTaraba state 17, 20 Jan; 17 killed when Fulani gunmen attacked Nwuko village in Taraba state 30 Jan.

Zimbabwe

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Tensions persisted following President Mugabe’s early-Dec purges in ZANU-PF party, with rumours of assassination plots and attempts against senior party figures. Deputy Minister Simon Musanhu, ally of former VP Joyce Mujuru, died in mysterious circumstances 15 Jan. Didymus Mutasa, powerful figure in ZANU-PF removed in purge, returned early-Jan, issued statement declaring early Dec party congress unconstitutional; alleged Mugabe and First Lady intimidated members ahead of congress, preventing them from freely choosing their preferred party leaders. Confusion over land rights contributed to instability: heavily armed police and Central Intelligence Organisation agents 8 Jan evicted some 200 families from Arnold Farm in Mazowe, burning down houses, crops; rumours First Lady involved in “land grab” process. President Mugabe appointed AU chair 30 Jan.

Madagascar

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Govt and PM Kolo’s long-expected 13 Jan resignation catalysed by deadly protests over power shortages; President Rajaonarimampianina 15 Jan named former air force commander Jean Ravelonarivo new PM. Former coup leader Rajoelina 16 Jan issued court challenge, alleging appointment anti-constitutional. Second reconciliation meeting between current President and former presidents Zafy, Ratsiraka, Ravalomana and Rajoelina held 13 Jan, little progress.

Rwanda

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Following visit by Belgian FM and cooperation minister, FM Louise Mushikiwabo 8 Jan announced “permanent political dialogue” between Kigali and Brussels. President Kagame 15 Jan criticised MONUSCO and DRC govt for not tackling FDLR rebels (see DRC).

DR Congo

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Violent protests in several cities 19-21 Jan followed National Assembly’s 17 Jan adoption of controversial draft electoral bill linking national census to presidential elections, raising potential delay; at least fourteen reportedly killed in clashes in capital. Senate 23 Jan adopted amended version of bill passed by Assembly, omitting census-elections link. Joint ICGLR-SADC summit on military option against FDLR scheduled for 15 Jan cancelled by Angola on basis that agreement already exists, DRC govt said military action “inevitable”. UNSC 8 Jan urged swift military action; FARDC 29 Jan announced launch of offensive without MONUSCO. Military operations against armed groups in eastern provinces ongoing: MONUSCO troops 5 Jan attacked FNL bases in Uvira, S Kivu; several clashes between FRPI militia and FARDC south of Bunia, Ituri.

Cameroon

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Boko Haram (BH) stepped up attacks in north but suffered several setbacks: BH fighters 12 Jan attacked military camp in Kolofata, 50 BH reportedly killed; BH 18 Jan kidnapped 80 civilians in Mayo Sava province, 24 freed next day by army. BH leader Shekau 5 Jan released video threatening large-scale attacks in Cameroon. President Biya early Jan asked for international support: Russia promised logistic assistance, U.S. promised to train troops.

Burundi

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Ahead of May/June elections opposition to President Nkurunziza’s potential third term intensified: former ruling CNDD-FDD Senator Richard Nimbesha 12 Jan said party gave Nkurunziza only two mandates. Opposition Movement for Solidarity and Democracy (MSD) 11 Jan appointed Alexis Sinduhije as presidential candidate. Govt and National Electoral Commission 12 Jan boycotted official launch of UN Electoral Mission (MENUB) amid ongoing discussions over MENUB’s role and activities. CNDD-FDD spokesperson 29 Jan announced party open to compromise, seeking free and fair polls. Prominent radio journalist Bob Rugurika arrested 20 Jan after broadcasting investigative reports on Sept murder of Italian nuns.

Central African Republic

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

Formerly secret negotiations between anti-balaka factions led by Kokate and Seleka faction led by Nourredine Adam and Michel Djotodia continued in Nairobi; led to signing 26 Jan of agreement on DDRR, amnesty for all perpetrators of violence, removal of current transitional authorities. Exclusion of CAR transitional authorities and international stakeholders caused resentment; UN, AU refuse to validate deal. In bid to obtain release of leader Andilo, anti-balaka 19 Jan kidnapped French humanitarian and CAR citizen for three days, 20 Jan kidnapped UN staffer, 25 Jan reportedly kidnapped youth and sport minister and leader of “Revolution and Justice” armed group Armel Sayo. New EU one-year military advisory mission (EUMAM RCA) established 19 Jan. In 16 Jan govt reshuffle four ministers left govt, close allies of President Samba-Panza awarded defence, justice portfolios.

Chad

  |  2 Feb 2015

Unchanged

President Déby 14 Jan discussed Boko Haram (BH) threat with Cameroonian defence minister; Chad 17 Jan sent 2,500 troops, 400 military vehicles and combat helicopters to Cameroon’s Far North province. Regional meeting 20 Jan called for UNSC to mandate regional force to combat BH; AU Commission President Dlamini-Zuma backed call, asked UN to establish fund to finance force, provide logistics.

Sudan

  |  2 Feb 2015

Deteriorated

Renewed clashes between army and rebels in Darfur and S Kordofan following Dec suspension of AUHIP talks between govt and Sudan Revolutionary Front member organisations, including reported aerial bombardment 27 Jan which destroyed several villages in Golo, Central Darfur. UN report released late Jan said over 3,000 villages destroyed in targeted attacks on civilians in Darfur in last year. Parliament 4 Jan approved eighteen amendments to 2005 interim constitution including presidential appointment and dismissal of state governors, expanded role for intelligence services, and inclusion of 2011 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). Latter amendment seen as reinforcing govt’s demand that DDPD serve as framework for talks with Darfur rebels. Preparations for April presidential and legislative elections ongoing: electoral body 15 Jan extended deadline for applications to 22 Jan; Democratic Unionist Party announced participation; President Bashir 11 Jan officially submitted candidacy on ruling National Congress Party platform.

Nigeria

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Boko Haram (BH) insurgency continued in north: attacks and suicide bombings left over 300 dead, 190 kidnapped in Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Plateau states. Unidentified armed men 7 Dec freed around 270 inmates in Minna, Niger state. Military 9 Dec said regained control of Mubi, Gombi, Maiha, Hong areas of Adamawa state. Court 17 Dec sentenced 54 soldiers to death for refusing to fight BH. Ruling People’s Democratic Party 10 Dec validated President Jonathan’s candidacy for 2015 elections; former military leader Muhammadu Buhari 11 Dec elected opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate. Two major oil workers’ unions 15-19 Dec staged nationwide strike, protested govt’s poor maintenance of refineries. Tens killed in intercommunal violence in middle belt states including: thirteen killed by suspected Fulani gunmen in Ashige, Nasarawa state 2 Dec; twelve killed in communal violence in Taraba state 21 Dec; ten killed by unknown gunmen in Kaduna state, 27 Dec. Six soldiers killed in two attacks 21 and 23 Dec by armed gangs on waterways in Bayelsa state.

Niger

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Govt 12 Dec requested international aid for worsening humanitarian crisis in Diffa region following mass influx of Nigerian refugees. Violence continued near border with Mali including three civilians abducted 4 Dec near Inekar.

Mali

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Third round of Algiers peace talks suspended 1 Dec, set to resume Jan.Both parties early-Dec criticised provisional peace agreement; disagreements persisted over formal status of north, Azawad Movement Coalition’s federalism demands. Attacks multiplied in Gao, Kidal regions early-Dec: French army vehicle hit 17 Dec on road to Tessalit; Chadian soldier vehicle hit near Aguelhok MINUSMA camp in north; rockets 29 Dec fired at MINUSMA and French camps in Tessalit, jihadi rebel group Ansar Eddine claimed responsibility for attack. Rockets fired at Tessalit camp 31 Dec, no one killed. Pro-govt forces 26 Dec clashed with pro-Azawad group over Bamba, Gao region. French forces 11 Dec announced death of Ahmed al-Tilemsi, key military figure from Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) rebel group.

Liberia

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Senate elections held 20 Dec following several delays; largely peaceful, low turnout; some instances of pre-election violence early-Dec in Monrovia, riot police sent to polling stations. Preliminary results showed George Weah win over president’s son Robert Sirleaf. President Johnson Sirleaf 4 Dec declared ban on rallies and mass gatherings over fears of Ebola spread; court 7 Dec lifted ban following petition by Senatorial candidates. UN 15 Dec announced extension of UNMIL mission to Sept 2015; mandate adjusted to focus on civilian protection, humanitarian assistance, justice and security sector reform.

Guinea-Bissau

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Tensions within ruling PAIGC remained high: senior party figures criticised PM Pereira for neglecting party figures, relying on non-party individuals. Former presidential candidate Nuno na Biam late-Nov announced creation of new Assembly of the United People-Democratic Party of Guinea-Bissau (APU-PDG) party. Regional body ECOWAS 15 Dec announced six-month extension of 700-strong peacekeeping presence; President Vaz 17 Dec said peacekeepers would remain until defence, security sector reforms complete.

Guinea

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Tensions between govt and opposition persisted ahead of 2015 general elections. Electoral commission 9 Dec discussed with selected parliamentarians€57mn election budget; opposition interpreted decision as sign govt avoiding international oversight, 18 Dec accused govt of planned electoral fraud. Justice Minister Cheik Sacko offered to resume discussions with opposition after opposition threatened nationwide protest 15 Dec if electoral reforms not enacted; opposition 22 Dec set conditions for dialogue, maintained call for 7 Jan protest rally. Govt 18 Dec signed contract with new electoral roll operator GEMALTO.

Côte d'Ivoire

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Tensions within opposition Popular Ivoirian Front (FPI) persisted: court 29 Dec invalidated candidacy of former President Gbagbo for FPI presidency following request by fellow candidate Pascal Affi N’Guessan. Divisions within main partner in ruling coalition, Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI): despite leader Henri Konan Bédié’s call to support President Ouattara, several figures said to be running in 2015 elections; Bédié 18 Dec announced party congress Feb to decide if PDCI candidate will run. Authorities 17 Dec said appealing ICC request to transfer Simone Gbagbo, former president’s wife accused of crimes against humanity for her involvement in 2010 post-electoral violence, to ICC custody; national trial began 26 Dec. ICC 11 Dec announced former Young Patriots leader Charles Blé Goudé charged with crimes against humanity. Soldiers from Akouédo camp protesting unpaid bonuses arrested 18 Dec; former warlord Salif Troré reportedly connected to protests, arrested 19 Dec.

Zimbabwe

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

Tensions over President Mugabe’s succession within ruling ZANU-PF persisted. ZANU-PF 6 Dec approved constitutional amendments allowing Mugabe to hand-pick Politburo members. Mugabe 9 Dec demoted VP Joice Mujuru to ordinary party member, eight other ministers fired same day, accused of plotting to oust him; Mugabe 10 Dec named Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and diplomat Phelekezela Mphoko VPs of ZANU-PF. Ousted former members of ZANU-PF 18 Dec petitioned South African Development Community to intervene in power struggle within party.

Madagascar

  |  5 Jan 2015

Unchanged

President Rajaonarimampianina and former presidents Zafy, Ratsiraka, Ravalomanana and Rajoelina 19 Dec met for reconciliation talks led by Malagasy Christian Council of Churches (FFKM). Despite ongoing tensions, Ravalomanana allowed home under house arrest 24 Dec. Following talks president also pardoned three political prisoners 25 Dec. Next reconciliation meeting planned 13 Jan.

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CrisisWatch N°139

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