Burma/Myanmar: Is There a Way Forward?

Brussels  |   21 Dec 2000

ICG releases today a new 44-page report, Burma/Myanmar: How Strong is the Military Regime?, assessing the current strengths and vulnerabilities of Burma/Myanmar’s governing military regime, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

The regime rules the country with an iron fist, and appears on the face of it as strong as ever. The democratic opposition under Aung San Suu Kyi’s leadership remains oppressed, and great discontent continues – notwithstanding negotiated ceasefires – among ethnic minorities in border areas. Attempts at international isolation have so far had little impact.

But the military regime is not without its vulnerabilities. A crumbling rural sector, some evidence of overstretch in areas previously controlled by ethnic insurgents, and intensified disaffection within the ranks of the armed forces are potentially the most significant.

“The challenge for the international community is to find ways to intensify the pressure upon Burma/Myanmar’s military regime to accommodate peaceful democratic transition,” said Gareth Evans, President of the International Crisis Group. “In pursuing that peaceful transition, there is a clear need to support the democratic opposition forces within the country in ways that are not counterproductive.”

“The necessary starting point for understanding likely mechanisms for change is a comprehensive accounting of the strengths and weaknesses of the regime, and that is the task we have begun here,” Mr Evans said.

The report is the first in a new ICG series, and will be followed by others more specifically addressing policy options.