Macedonia Filling the Security Vacuum

Skopje/Brussels  |   8 Sep 2001

The war option has, for the moment, been checked in Macedonia, but the country is very far from being at peace. In a new briefing paper, Macedonia: Filling the Security Vacuum, the International Crisis Group argues that the most important contribution the international community can make now is to ensure that an adequate follow-on force is created after NATO’s current mandate expires at the end of September.

The briefing paper was released today in Brussels by ICG Chairman, President Martti Ahtisaari, ICG Board member General Wesley Clark, and ICG President Gareth Evans. Mr Evans said: “Reaching agreement on a new NATO mission, more than any single factor that can be influenced by the West, will determine whether there is to be war or peace in Macedonia. The clock is ticking on that challenge.”

Since the August 13 peace agreement was signed, more than a dozen bombs have exploded around the country, ethnic Macedonians continue to be displaced and there have been claims of attacks against ethnic Albanian villages by Macedonian paramilitaries. Weapons collection from ethnic Albanian rebels has been insufficient to convince the ethnic Macedonian public and politicians that the rebels will disarm and disband, and there has been no agreement yet on removing weapons from the estimated 3,000 well-armed ethnic Macedonian paramilitaries.

There are two immediate and linked imperatives. First, Macedonia’s parliament needs to pass the entire constitutional and legislative package that gives ethnic Albanians greater official recognition and local control. It has taken the first step, but political tension and rhetoric remain high.

Secondly, all sides need security – ethnic Albanians to provide assurances against the police harassment and paramilitary violence they fear; ethnic Macedonians to provide assurances that they can return swiftly to the homes they fled during the fighting, and to seal the country’s borders against rebel Albanian infiltration. International officials, police advisers and monitors also need protection to perform their vital functions. If the security vacuum is filled only by ethnic paramilitaries and rebels, the progress that has been made will be quickly forfeited.

At the same time Macedonia’s government and key NATO capitals alike need to be persuaded not only that a follow-on NATO mission is essential but that it must be equipped with an adequate mandate.

Almost all officials on the ground now acknowledge that some kind of follow-on force is needed if the peace agreement is to survive. Many governments are also beginning to recognise this. The question is whether the force will be adequate to the task.