Biting the Somali Bullet

Nairobi/Brussels  |   4 May 2004

If the broken country of Somalia is ever to be fixed, the Somali peace process must be fixed first.

Biting the Somali Bullet ,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) talks on Somalia, which have now reached a critical stage, as foreign ministers meet this week to decide next steps. Stalemated since January 2004, the IGAD negotiations, led by Kenya, desperately need to be reinvigorated both from within IGAD and internationally.

"The international response to date has been tepid and insufficient", says John Prendergast, Special Advisor to the President of ICG. "Unless the U.S. and EU work with IGAD to heal regional divisions and reform the peace process, the process will die, tensions in Somalia will intensify, and the country will continue to be a failed state, dangerous to its immediate neighbours and beyond".

Over thirteen years after the collapse of the Siad Barre regime, Somalia remains the only country in the world without a government, a classic example of the humanitarian, economic and political repercussions of state collapse, including a governance vacuum that terrorist groups can take advantage of for safe haven and logistical purposes.

IGAD's erratic management of the Somali peace process has been symptomatic of broader international neglect. Financial support notwithstanding, donors have failed to supply the level of political commitment and technical assistance required for success. Deep and persistent rivalries among regional states have undone the peacemaking and aggravated the Somali crisis. Kenya lacks leverage to bridge the regional differences. Violations of the arms embargo and the cessation of hostilities agreement continue to go unpunished.

IGAD is now eager to move ahead to the third and final phase of the talks, but unless these fundamental flaws are addressed first, failure is certain.

To save the talks IGAD must first overcome its own internal divisions and ensure wider participation and Somali ownership of the process. Member states must show genuine leadership in enforcing the arms embargo and take the initiative in establishing a targeted sanctions regime aimed at spoilers. The U.S. and EU must re-engage at a higher level in both helping to resolve regional differences and supporting the process more directly. It is striking that the U.S. regards the failed state of Somalia as likely to provide haven for terrorists, yet does not accord high importance to the IGAD talks and restoration of government in Somalia. Finally, Somali leaders must return to reinvigorated talks with more commitment. Only when these strands come together will it be possible to restore a functioning government.

"By pushing the process forward without correcting its flaws, IGAD and its partners are setting the stage for yet another stillborn Somali peace accord", says Matt Bryden, a Senior Analyst with ICG.