Sudan's Dual Crises

Nairobi/Brussels  |   5 Oct 2004

War could soon break out again across Sudan unless the negotiations between the government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) that resume on 7 October produce a quick and conclusive peace agreement.

Sudan's Dual Crises: Refocusing on IGAD,* the latest briefing paper from the International Crisis Group, calls on the international community to deal with the country's multiple conflicts comprehensively and urgently. Recent global engagement on Darfur, while critically necessary, must be matched by equal attention to the peace process driven by the regional organisation Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

"The world finally focused on the Darfur crisis after months of ignoring atrocities there", says Suliman Baldo, Director of ICG's Africa Program. "Unfortunately, one consequence of today's spotlight on Darfur is the shadow cast on the other conflicts in the country, especially the war between the government and the mainly southern insurgents led by the SPLA, which has claimed more than two million lives over the past two decades".

The IGAD talks between Khartoum and the SPLA have appeared to be on the edge of success for months but the government has delayed bringing them to conclusion. If it chooses to delay further, the six protocols already signed but not yet in force may well begin to unravel.

There are several possible stumbling points. Regime hardliners, who fear too many concessions have been made to the SPLA, may stonewall in the hope that the entire deal will collapse. Elements within the SPLA that have never trusted the government and believe it has been weakened by Darfur could also try to scupper the agreement. If the IGAD process breaks down, new war fronts are likely to emerge in the Nuba Mountains, Southern Blue Nile and the east.

Wrapping up the IGAD agreement would provide models for a Darfur resolution and begin the process towards democratisation and national elections. However, indications are the regime is leaning toward further intransigence, at least in the hope this will persuade the international community to relax the demands it is making on it about Darfur.

The UN Security Council needs to pressure Khartoum to take serious steps both to resolve the Darfur crisis - immediate progress is needed in particular on deployment of a sizeable African Union force mandated to protect civilians - and to conclude the IGAD peace agreement.

"The Sudan government has reached a critical fork in the road", says John Prendergast, Special Adviser to the President of ICG. "The consequences of its decision regarding which path to take - cooperation or confrontation - will be profound for the future of Sudan. History shows that Khartoum will not choose the right path unless it is pressured to do so".