Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy

Nairobi/Brussels  |   19 Apr 2004

Creating a free and fair process over the next nine months so that Zimbabwe's parliamentary elections are credible in March 2005 may be the country's last chance to avoid becoming a failed state. The international community must act now to help guarantee those elections are truly democratic.

Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy ,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the rapidly worsening situation and recommends policy changes. Inter-party negotiations between the ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are not achievable. Regional states and others with leverage need collectively to redirect their efforts toward ensuring that the March 2005 parliamentary elections are conducted in line with the Southern African Development Community's own norms and standards.

"If the electoral process is badly compromised, and state violence continues to be deployed against the opposition, Zimbabwe will reach the point of no return", says John Prendergast, Special Adviser to ICG's President. "Elements of the opposition and civil society, disaffected war veterans and youth militia, and losers in the ZANU-PF factional battle then might well fight one another or the state".

The first quarter of 2004 has seen a deepening of Zimbabwe's crisis. ZANU-PF has further isolated itself internationally and demonstrated its reliance on repression and force to maintain control. Though it retains some of the trappings of a multi-party democracy, Zimbabwe is de facto a one-party state controlled by a narrow group of ZANU-PF and military officials who have used its resources and institutions for personal enrichment. President Mugabe's recent comments about remaining in office for a full term make clear that ZANU-PF intends to use the scheduled parliamentary elections in 2005 to consolidate its power further. The economy is contracting at a record rate. Zimbabwe, which exported food until recently, now has the highest percentage in Africa of people being fed by international aid.

The international response to Zimbabwe's tragedy has been inadequate and ineffectual. The U.S. and EU feed the majority of Zimbabweans, but their policies do not begin to address the roots of the crisis. South Africa and other neighbours have not made the kind of concerted effort to resolve the crisis that states in East and West Africa have attempted when confronted with regional problems. Instead, their policies have amounted to covering for the regime. The opposition and civil society have shown good faith by participating in governing institutions and elections, but that has only given a veneer of legitimacy to a system that is suppressing political freedom and destroying what had been one of Africa's more dynamic economies.

"All these actors need to change course", says Stephen Ellis, Director of ICG's Africa Program. "The elections may seem far away today, but we must start focusing on them now, because getting the elections right is really Zimbabwe's last hope to avoid becoming a failed state".