Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look

Beijing/Taipei/Washington/Brussels  |   26 Feb 2004

In its latest report, the fourth and final in a series on the relationship between China and Taiwan, the International Crisis Group analyses the chances of reaching a political settlement within the next ten to fifteen years.

Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look* stands back from the current political turbulence – largely being driven by the 20 March presidential election – and focuses on what it would take to produce a longer-term solution that both sides could live with.

“The events of the last few months have shown that the risk of conflict across the Strait is still real. If it is to be reduced, there just has to be some hard new thinking about how the apparently intractable current positions of both sides can ultimately be reconciled”, said ICG President Gareth Evans.

Four different reunification or reintegration models are considered in this report:

• The “one country, two systems” formula favoured by Beijing: essentially a federation, with a single sovereign state but with a clear division of power between the central authority and the autonomous entity in question;
• a “federacy”: a very “thin” or loose federation, with the central authority’s power further diluted by the autonomous entity being demilitarised according to international agreement;
• a “confederation” model, involving a union of two equal, independent sovereign states aspiring to eventual unification; and
• a “Greater Chinese Union” model, somewhere between a confederation and the “thinnest” possible federation, for which no existing terminology is quite suitable.

The report argues that some variation on the theme of a “Greater Chinese Union” is the most attractive option: its loose and flexible form would allow Taiwan to keep its distinct political, economic and social identity, and satisfy much of its desire to be treated with more respect internationally, while allowing China to plausibly claim that reunification is a reality.

“It is possible to contemplate an ultimate settlement drawing on the uniqueness of Chinese history and culture, an elastic interpretation of ‘what it means to be Chinese’ and the highly distinctive situation in the Strait: it won’t  be a pattern copied from political science or international law text books”, said Mr Evans.

The report describes the prerequisites for  a political solution (not all in strong supply now) as being forward looking leadership; converging political liberalisation; continued economic integration; emergence of a greater sense of common Chinese identity; willingness by China to explore creative solutions; maintenance of a steady course by the United States; and encouragement by outsiders generally of a cooperative solution.