Peace in Northern Uganda: Decisive Weeks Ahead

Kampala/Brussels  |   21 Feb 2005

Although the government's unilateral ceasefire expires tomorrow, Uganda today faces its most significant prospect for peace in years.

Peace in Northern Uganda: Decisive Weeks Ahead ,* the latest policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the eighteen-year insurgency by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) - whose extreme brutality has displaced 1.6 million people and sparked an investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC) - and states the conflict is ripe for resolution.

"If the international community provides focused, meaningful support, then peace in northern Uganda is achievable in 2005", says John Prendergast, Special Adviser to the President of Crisis Group.

Several factors contribute to the current peace opportunity. The African-brokered peace deal in neighbouring Sudan in January has created some momentum. Also, the Ugandan military's counter-insurgency effort has become more effective; the Sudanese government has reduced support to the LRA; the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation is putting pressure on both the LRA and the government; civil society initiatives at reconciliation have helped build momentum; and the able mediation of former Ugandan State Minister Betty Bigombe has built confidence with the parties.

The next month will be decisive. The government must make a concerted effort to ensure that the peace process moves forward - despite the 16 February surrender of the lead LRA negotiator - by extending the unilateral ceasefire for a month. The LRA must demonstrate that it wants a peaceful resolution by negotiating seriously and concluding a definitive ceasefire. Without additional effort on both sides and increased international support, the process could crumble, resulting in more fighting and a renewed effort by the government to win the war by purely military means.

The UN and the African Union need to be ready to provide neutral monitoring if a ceasefire is agreed, and donors should fund disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration projects, as well as increased assistance for the victims of the conflict, as part of a peace dividend.

Stronger diplomatic backing for Betty Bigombe's mediation efforts could also be decisive. A troika of Norway, The Netherlands and the UK is giving her limited technical and financial assistance. This should be stepped up and closely coordinated with increased and more visible support from the U.S., including a special envoy appointed by President Bush. Khartoum must also be pressured to end all support for the LRA.

"The peace process needs greater international support, which should be folded into a cohesive overall regional strategy for peace", says Prendergast. "Left to their own devices, the parties to the conflict in northern Uganda will continue to pursue military solutions, with devastating consequences for the people living there".