Aceh: So Far, So Good

Jakarta/Brussels  |   13 Dec 2005

The Aceh peace process has exceeded expectations thus far, but it has now entered a critical stage.

Aceh: So Far, So Good,* the latest update briefing from the International Crisis Group, records the key achievements one year after the Indian Ocean tsunami devastated Aceh and reordered the political landscape. It also highlights some of the remaining possible bumps in the road to a lasting peace between the Indonesian government and guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM).

“There are still serious challenges ahead, of course – most importantly the reintegration of GAM fighters back into society”, says Gareth Evans, President of Crisis Group. “But what has been achieved so far is a real credit to the government and GAM”.

Since the peace agreement was signed in Helsinki on 15 August 2005, the political will of the government and GAM to keep the process moving has led both to take risks. The government released GAM prisoners two weeks before decommissioning began, and by the end of the third stage of a four-stage process, GAM had turned in more weapons than expected.

Those risks appear to have paid off. The threat of militia violence has not materialised, and amnestied prisoners have returned home without incident. The international Aceh Monitoring Mission, headed by the European Union’s Peter Feith, has quickly and professionally resolved the few violent confrontations that have appeared.

The peace process now has two key hurdles to overcome. The first of these involves the reintegration of former GAM members into civilian life. While many combatants have returned spontaneously to their communities, most are unemployed. Disagreement between GAM leaders and the government over delivery of cash payments to facilitate reintegration is holding up more comprehensive programs to establish new livelihoods. It also appears to be creating some friction within GAM itself. If the problem is not resolved, the danger in the long term is that bored or jobless ex-combatants will turn to crime or seek to resume fighting.

The second hurdle is the legal process of incorporating the provisions of the agreement into a new law that must be adopted by the Indonesian parliament. The transformation of GAM from an armed movement to a political one hinges on this law, particularly its provisions on local political parties and the mechanics of local elections. The question is whether the parliament will accept the Acehnese draft without serious revisions.

“Since wiser heads have prevailed thus far every time a potential obstacle has arisen, there is every reason to believe that a way will be found around this problem, too”, says Sidney Jones, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director.