China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente
Seoul/Brussels |
21 Sep 2005
China and Taiwan should seek progress on modest steps to improve the cross-strait atmosphere and help keep tensions under control in what remains a dangerously volatile region.
China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines relations between the two since Crisis Group last reported on cross-strait issues in February 2004, and analyses the U.S. role in helping to restore regional stability in that period. While no major changes in the policies of the three are foreseen, the new briefing recommends moderate moves, including enhanced bilateral economic and personnel exchanges.
"The potential costs and risks for all three governments are too large to expect any one of them to alter course greatly", says Peter Beck, Crisis Group's North East Asia Project Director. "Nonetheless, anticipated progress on some smaller steps could lead to a useful revival of formal dialogue".
Taiwan politics are sharply divided, with President Chen Shui-bian's administration still strongly committed to a pro-independence agenda despite recent setbacks like the December 2004 legislative elections. Chen is unwilling to follow the example of the opposition leaders who renounced Taiwan's independence and generally accepted the "One China" principle that Beijing considers a prerequisite for improved relations.
China's leadership, while flexible in certain respects on some cross-strait issues, remains constrained by nationalism and personal sensitivities from attempting reconciliation with Chen. In March 2005, China passed an anti-secession law that formalised its promise to use force against any attempt by Taiwan to separate permanently, but Beijing's talks with Taiwanese political opposition leaders in April and May 2005 improved the cross-strait atmosphere.
The U.S. rightly favours cross-strait dialogue in order to ease tensions and preserve the status quo in China-Taiwan relations.
"Washington seems determined to deter not only a Chinese attack but also provocative Taiwan independence moves", says Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program Director. "This bodes well for stability in the region".