Japan and North Korea: Bones of Contention
Seoul/Brussels |
27 Jun 2005
Since North Korea badly needs help to revive its economy, the prospect of normalised relations with Japan is a leading incentive that could be offered in a deal to end its nuclear programs.
Japan and North Korea: Bones of Contention,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the deteriorating ties between the two countries and argues that normalised relations would be in the interests of both states provided it occurs in the context of a solution to the nuclear problem. For Japan, it would help preserve North East Asian security and represent one more step toward closure for wartime misdeeds. For North Korea, it would potentially produce a key economic infusion for reviving its moribund economy.
"The prospect of better relations and stronger economic ties with Japan is one of the best inducements available to encourage Pyongyang to end its nuclear programs", says Peter Beck, Crisis Group's North East Asia Project Director.
However, while the nuclear issue is more significant for Japanese and East Asian security, Japan's public is focused on the abductions issue. Thus, Tokyo will not have full freedom to negotiate on the nuclear issue until it can satisfy its public the abduction problem has been resolved or at least will be resolved in parallel.
The North Korean nuclear threat is usually cited as the primary motivation for the ongoing changes in Japan's military posture, but in reality these changes are part of the country's re-evaluation of its regional role.
Japan's long-term military strategy can best be understood as increasing its military responsibilities within the context of its alliance with Washington. As long as the U.S. retains a forward posture in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan is likely to remain its closest ally there and eschew independent nuclear capabilities. North Korea's nuclear threat will not directly change this.
"Ultimately, Japan cannot move independently of developments in U.S.-North Korea relations", says Robert Templer, Director of Crisis Group's Asia Program. "But as prospects improve for resuming the nuclear talks, Japan should both dangle the carrot of normalised relations and be prepared to wield the stick of sanctions".