North East Asia's Undercurrents of Conflict

Seoul/Brussels  |   15 Dec 2005

Simmering tensions between China, Japan and South Korea risk boiling over unless the three countries embrace confidence- and institution-building measures and put aside their arguments over history.

North East Asia’s Undercurrents of Conflict,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, describes shifting power relationships that have contributed to the rise in nationalism, which is aggravating old disputes over territory and history and threatening to make progress on critical security and economic challenges more difficult. China’s economic growth, generational shifts in South Korea and Japan’s waning economic dominance have spurred xenophobia and occasional violence throughout the region. A dialogue that avoids extreme rhetoric on all sides is needed.

“Territorial disputes and revisionist history stoke the fires and undermine regional stability and prosperity”, says Peter Beck, Crisis Group’s North East Asia Project Director. “These countries need to develop a more sophisticated understanding of each other and build cooperative institutions that support, rather than undermine, regional progress”.

Changes in Japan’s defence policy, including reinterpretation of the constitutional clause renouncing use of force to solve problems, continuing leadership visits to a shrine where war criminals are among those interred, and controversial school history books anger and worry Koreans and Chinese with memories of Japanese imperialism. China’s emergence as a global economic power has created new security, environmental and energy challenges, sometimes provoking direct competition with its neighbours. A younger generation of leaders in South Korea wants the country to develop a new identity as a regional “balancer” rather than a reflexive U.S. ally and to focus on reconciliation and reunification with the North.

To keep incidents from raising tensions to the boiling point, Japan, China, South Korea and the U.S. should refrain from unilateral military exercises in disputed areas, increase military-to-military exchanges and establish regional institutions to address common political and security problems. Japan should use public money to assist war crimes victims. South Korea should clearly state that it accepts existing border treaties as it pursues peaceful reunification. China should publicly acknowledge Japan’s role in its economic development and accept Tokyo’s offers to develop oil and gas deposits in the East China Sea jointly.

“It’s overly ambitious to think long-standing, symbolic problems will be resolved anytime soon”, says Beck. “But taking these steps would go a long way toward reducing tensions and allowing these countries to focus on more important issues like security, non-proliferation, energy procurement and environmental protection”.