Thailand: Emergency Decree Is No Solution

Jakarta/Brussels  |   18 Nov 2005

The state of emergency imposed on Thailand's majority Muslim provinces will not solve the separatist conflict in the south.

Thailand's Emergency Decree: No Solution,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the impact of the decree on residents in the south, and on the National Reconciliation Commission established in March 2005 to devise a peaceful solution to the conflict. A detailed examination of three incidents in rebel strongholds since the implementation of the decree shows deepening alienation among Malay Muslim residents.

"Trust between Malay Muslim villagers and the security forces has broken down completely in some areas", says Crisis Group Analyst Francesca Lawe-Davies. "Though this has not been caused solely by the decree, there's no doubt it has significantly exacerbated the problem".

The Executive Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situations took effect in Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat provinces on 19 July 2005 and despite the absence of any demonstrable strategic gain, was renewed for three months on 19 October. Designed as a softer version of martial law, it is in many ways worse. Provisions granting officials immunity from prosecution and suspending administrative court jurisdiction over human rights cases leave citizens with no redress for abuse. Despite some legal safeguards, the decree leaves loopholes that heighten the risk of arbitrary detention and mistreatment of detainees.

"In practice, the government's powers are the same as they were under martial law, but with less accountability", says Lawe-Davies.

To avoid plunging the area into worse violence, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra should immediately moderate the decree. Strengthening police forensic capacity and guaranteeing lawyers' access to administrative detainees would also help ameliorate the climate of fear.

Another by-product of the deteriorating situation has been a sharp downturn in relations between Thailand and Malaysia, related to Bangkok's long-running accusation that its neighbour turns a blind eye to Thai separatist militants taking refuge in northern states, and aggravated in recent months by inept handling of a 'refugee' problem.

"There is still no evidence of outside involvement in the violence", says Sidney Jones, Crisis Group's South East Asia Project Director. "But if it continues to worsen, the risk of foreign jihadis coming to help may rise".

To tackle the serious and escalating threat posed by separatist militants in the south, the government needs to regain community trust. Repealing and amending the decree's worst provisions would help. Unless relations improve, the growing alienation among Thailand's Malay Muslims may turn into sympathy, support and even recruits for the insurgency.