After North Korea's Missile Launch: Are the Nuclear Talks Dead?
Seoul/Brussels |
9 Aug 2006
In the wake of Pyongyang’s provocative missile test, a new U.S. approach is needed if there is to be progress in the stalled North Korean nuclear talks.
After North Korea's Missile Launch: Are the Nuclear Talks Dead?,* its latest Asia policy briefing, updates International Crisis Group reporting on the nuclear and missile standoff. Attempts to squeeze North Korean concessions by wielding economic sanctions, refusing to meet with its diplomats outside the multilateral talks and pressing human rights concerns have reduced the six-party talks involving North and South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia to “dead man walking” status. Unless negotiations resume soon with both sides showing more flexibility, Washington and Pyongyang could be on a collision course – with Seoul in the middle.
“Negotiating with the North is usually exasperating but the half-hearted and often self defeating approach of the Bush administration has ensured that the exercise goes nowhere”, says Peter Beck, Crisis Group Northeast Asia Project Director. “It’s time for the U.S. to replace this strategy with real attempts to engage the North. That is the only way to find out if Pyongyang is serious about negotiating, and if it isn’t then to rally the other parties to take a tougher line.”
South Korea and China are slowly realising their unconditional engagement has been no more successful than the hard-line U.S. approach in eliciting the desired behaviour from the North. China’s vote for UN Security Council Resolution 1695 condemning the missile launches and imposing a partial arms embargo on the North shows that even Pyongyang’s most important benefactor is losing patience. While reluctant to join sanctions, Seoul halted humanitarian aid, leaving the North more isolated than in decades.
However, the July missile test also exposed the growing strains in South Korea’s relationship with the U.S., which involve not only how to deal with Pyongyang but also the stationing of American troops and the continuation of a special defence relationship.
If Pyongyang is not given a face-saving way of backing down, it could escalate the confrontation by testing another missile or even conducting a nuclear test, which would certainly lead to even harsher condemnation and more severe sanctions. The only real chance of breaking out of the downward spiral is for the U.S. to adopt a new approach, including an openness to bilateral talks and less rhetorical vitriol, in order to test the North’s willingness to return to the table and work towards a deal.
Washington should unfreeze North Korean assets in Macao used for legitimate business activities, appoint a full-time senior envoy for the nuclear crisis equipped with substantial negotiating powers, including authority to visit Pyongyang for informal bilateral discussions. Seoul should improve the atmosphere by de-linking humanitarian assistance from nuclear, missile and inter-Korean cooperation issues.
“Without more flexible dialogue in the equation and an agreement on common goals and strategies among South Korea, China, Russia and the U.S., the North could be pushed to the point of further escalating an already perilous situation”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director. “Diplomatic options still remain, but time is running out”.