Montenegro's Referendum

Podgorica/Belgrade/Brussels  |   30 May 2006

Montenegro’s successful independence referendum should on balance increase stability in the western Balkans.

Montenegro’s Referendum,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the campaign, result and aftermath of the 21 May poll, in which 55.53 per cent of Montenegro’s voters chose independence, narrowly clearing the 55 per cent threshold set by the EU.

Following the pro-independence victory, Podgorica still faces significant transition challenges, but none should affect regional stability, and all can be resolved as the country moves forward with the Stabilisation and Association process towards European Union membership. The EU and other international actors should do everything possible to speed its accession to international institutions

“Given the positive international response to the referendum, Montenegro can now at last become a ‘boring’ country moving toward integration with Europe”, says Nicholas Whyte, Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director.

From its creation out of the rump Yugoslavia in March 2002, the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro has been unpopular in both its constituent parts. Although the EU had clearly hoped its 55 per cent hurdle would enable the State Union to hold together, the fact that so high a bar was cleared will make Montenegro’s independence considerably less contentious than it otherwise might have been. Both the unionists and official Belgrade have no real alternative but to accept, however grudgingly, the outcome.

Most neighbouring countries are openly pleased with the outcome, which they feel marks the death knell of the Greater Serbian project that generated so much violence during the 1990s. It may also lessen the imperative for Serbs living outside Serbia to push for union with the “mother country”.

In Bosnia, however, Republika Srpska Premier Milorad Dodik has talked about holding a similar referendum, especially as Kosovo status approaches. The international community, in particular High Representative Christian Schwarz-Schilling, must continue to make it absolutely clear that partition of Bosnia is not an option, whether in “compensation” for Kosovo or for any other reason.

Belgrade is still in shock from the referendum loss, and struggling to formulate rational policy in keeping with Serbia’s policy needs and the international diplomatic environment.

“Much will depend on how Serbian Premier Vojislav Kostunica responds, and whether he has the courage to stand up to the nationalist winds blowing through the Belgrade media”, says James Lyon, Crisis Group Senior Balkan Adviser.