The Next Iraqi War Sectarianism and Civil Conflict

Amman/Baghdad/Brussels  |   27 Feb 2006

Iraqis and the international community must act urgently to prevent an all-out civil war that would tear the country apart.

The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, says efforts to hold Iraq together are on the verge of collapse. It analyses a polarisation that was not inevitable and prescribes how to stop the downward slide and put Iraq on track to unity, compromise and reconciliation.

As the result of escalating sectarian violence and rhetoric over the past year, Sunni-Shiite tensions evident since the removal of Saddam’s regime have become deep rifts. Brutal efforts of some insurgents to exploit post-war-free-for-all and jumpstart civil war have been met with revenge acts. The 22 February attack on the al-Askariya shrine in Samara and subsequent reprisals are just the latest and most spectacular examples.

“There is still time to forge a genuine national compact and promote a national identity but institutional restraints that so far have prevented a break-up are fast eroding”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program Director. “The main burden is on Iraq’s leaders but they need all the help and pressure the U.S. and others can muster”.

To reverse the trend, the winners of the December 2005 elections must establish a government of genuine national unity with popular credibility and give Sunni Arab leaders more than just token roles; the government must make every effort to restore a sense of national identity and address Iraqis’ top concerns – personal safety and access to basic amenities. And it must begin to disband the sectarian militias.

Substantive changes must also be made to the constitution. What has become the blueprint for Iraq’s dissolution must become an inclusive document that protects all communities’ fundamental interests. The U.S., neighbours, Europeans and others must push to convince Iraqi leaders to revise key articles on federalism and oil distribution.

“It’s now up to Iraq’s religious authorities to urge their followers to remain calm in the face of provocations, and to political leaders to lower their dangerously inflammatory rhetoric, lest a low-intensity conflict turn into a full-scale sectarian war and the country disintegrate”, says Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Group’s Middle East Project Director.