In Their Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency

Amman/Brussels  |   15 Feb 2006

The U.S. and its allies must better understand what the insurgency is saying and alter their approach to fighting it if they hope to win the war of legitimacy in Iraq.

In Their Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency*, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the evolution of Iraqi insurgency groups since mid-2003, and through an exhaustive analysis of their various forms of communication – web sites, chat rooms, leaflets, magazines and videos – reveals the emergence of an increasingly confident, well-organised, coordinated and information-savvy armed opposition.

The picture is of an insurgency dominated by a few large groups, less divided between Iraqi nationalists and foreign jihadis than commonly reported, which react quickly to political developments and seek to adapt their strategy and tactics to those of their adversaries. The groups are increasingly mindful of their image, aware of public opinion and believe more than ever before that they will be victorious.

“Over time, the insurgency appears to have become more coordinated, confident, sensitive to its constituents’ demands and adept at learning from the enemy’s successes and its own failures”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Project Director. “The U.S. must take these factors into account if it is to understand the insurgency’s resilience and learn how to counter it”.

The better the U.S. understands the message communicated by the armed opposition and why it resonates with their constituents – not just dismissing it as propaganda – the better it will understand how to win hearts and minds. Its focus should be on reducing the insurgents’ perceived legitimacy and increasing that of the Iraqi government. What this means is that coalition forces must stop questionable practices such as torture, rein in Iraqi forces that are participating in such practices, end the use of sectarian militias as a substitute for regular armed forces, and hold the new government accountable.

“There is a treasure trove of material which offers a window into the insurgents’ mindset that has been both undervalued and underutilised by the coalition”, says Gareth Evans, Crisis Group President. “An anti-insurgency approach based squarely on reducing the insurgents’ perceived legitimacy – rather than, as at present, focused on their military destruction and dislocation – is much more likely to succeed.”