The Philippines: Running in Place in Mindanao

Jakarta/Brussels  |   16 Feb 2009

The Philippines government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) should focus on reaching a ceasefire in central Mindanao, especially as a broader settlement of the conflict seems out of reach during the remaining tenure of the Arroyo administration.

The Philippines: Running in Place in Mindanao,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, argues that the government’s effort to resume talks will be futile unless the factors that led to the collapse of negotiations last August are addressed.

“As it stands, the two sides are too far apart, the potential spoilers too numerous, and the political will in Manila too weak to hope for a negotiated peace anytime soon, but progress around the edges is possible”, said Sidney Jones, Crisis Group’s Asia Senior Adviser.

In August 2008, the Supreme Court stopped the two sides from signing a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) on Ancestral Domain, setting out the territory to be included in an autonomous Moro homeland, the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE). It later ruled the agreement unconstitutional. In anger, three MILF commanders launched attacks, killing several dozen civilians. The government dissolved its negotiating team, disavowed the agreement, and mounted “punitive operations” against the three commanders.

Those operations are continuing and have led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands in central Mindanao. The government says they will end only when the MILF turns over the commanders, which it is not prepared to do. But it might be possible to find a way out that would involve acknowledging the commanders’ responsibility for attacks and restricting their movements without formally arresting them.

It will be much harder to move forward on the substantive issues that killed the MOA. Any agreement that gives the Moros the degree of autonomy they want will require a politically difficult constitutional change, and opposition to the BJE’s proposed territory on the part of key constituents – politically influential leaders, Christian and indigenous non-Muslim communities – remains implacable. Consultations and dialogues to solicit feedback from these groups have been planned, but they will be useful only if they translate into concrete policy recommendations.

“Peace is not around the corner in Mindanao”, warns John Virgoe, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director. “But getting a ceasefire in central Mindanao would be an important achievement in humanitarian terms alone”.