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Reports & Briefings

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Tunisia’s Elections: Old Wounds, New Fears,  Middle East and North Africa Briefing N°44   |  19 Dec 2014

Tunisia’s presidential election highlights the multiple divides that trouble the country and region. Unless the winner governs as a truly national leader, representing all Tunisians and not just his base, current tensions could escalate into violence.

Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter,  Europe Report N°235   |  18 Dec 2014

Winter in Ukraine is injecting further uncertainty into an already volatile conflict. After well over 5,000 deaths and eight months of war, eastern Ukraine – particularly the separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk – now runs the risk of a humanitarian crisis. All parties involved in the conflict should refrain from offensive operations, concentrating instead on helping the population survive the winter, and laying the groundwork for a political settlement.

Congo: Ending the Status Quo,  Africa Briefing N°107   |  17 Dec 2014

A new consensus and strategy are urgently needed to tackle the numerous, brutal armed groups in eastern Congo and to save the February 2013 Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSCF) in the Great Lakes region.

Guinea’s Other Emergency: Organising Elections,  Africa Briefing N°106   |  15 Dec 2014

Guinea approaches the second free presidential election in its history under difficult circumstances. Unless the government convenes a serious dialogue with the opposition, it risks electoral violence and exacerbating ethnic divisions.

The Central African Republic’s Hidden Conflict,  Africa Briefing N°105   |  12 Dec 2014

Away from the international spotlight, the Central African Republic’s rural areas are turning into fields of violence as war over territory and livestock hits a highly vulnerable population, with effects increasingly felt in neighbouring Cameroon and Chad.

The Day after Tomorrow: Colombia’s FARC and the End of the Conflict,  Latin America Report N°53   |  11 Dec 2014

As they move toward a final peace agreement, the negotiators of the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) face the challenge of laying out a credible path for guerrilla fighters to abandon arms and reintegrate into society.

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Iran Nuclear Talks: The Fog Recedes,  Middle East Briefing N°43   |  10 Dec 2014

When twelve months of intense negotiations between Iran and the P5+1/EU3+3 ended with yet another extension, sceptics saw this as confirmation that the talks are doomed. But it would be as grave a mistake to underestimate the real progress as to overstate the chances of ultimate success. A landmark agreement is still within reach if both sides adopt more flexible postures on enrichment capacity and sanctions relief.

Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election: Risks and Opportunities,  Asia Briefing N°145   |  9 Dec 2014

Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election promises more competition than was initially anticipated. But with that comes a great risk of violence. Long-term stability and post-war reconciliation can only be achieved through a peaceful election resulting in a government committed to serving the interests of all Sri Lankans.

A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability,  Asia Report N°263   |  3 Dec 2014

Martial law has brought calm but not peace to Thailand’s febrile politics. The military regime’s stifling of dissent precludes a frank dialogue on the kingdom’s future and could lead to greater turmoil than that which brought about the May 2014 coup.

Nigeria’s Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence,  Africa Report N°220   |  21 Nov 2014

Nigeria’s politics is sliding dangerously towards violence before, during and after the February 2015 elections. With only three months to the polls, mitigating bloodshed requires urgent improvements in security and electoral arrangements, as well as in political mind-sets.

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