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Horn of Africa

Sudan: The Prospects for “National Dialogue”

Africa Briefing N°108, 11 March 2015

Sudanese President Omar al-Beshir speaks during a rally in El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, on February 24, 2010.

President Bashir’s year-old promise of national dialogue is faltering through a lack of political will, factional manoeuvring, and looming elections. Though the threat of economic and political crisis has eased, renewed commitment to substantive, structured, broad-based dialogue is vital if Sudan is to escape the cycle of war and humanitarian crisis.

Recent Reports

Sudan: The Prospects for “National Dialogue”, Africa Briefing N°108, 11 Mar 2015

President Bashir’s year-old promise of national dialogue is faltering through a lack of political will, factional manoeuvring, and looming elections. Though the threat of economic and political crisis has eased, renewed commitment to substantive, structured, broad-based dialogue is vital if Sudan is to escape the cycle of war and humanitarian crisis.

Sudan and South Sudan’s Merging Conflicts, Africa Report N°223, 29 Jan 2015

The conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan are increasingly merged. Halting drift toward a Uganda-Sudan proxy war on the Sudan-South Sudan border requires better coordination by regional organisations and more engagement by influential outside powers, notably China and the U.S., including via the UN Security Council. A UN-imposed arms embargo, improved border monitoring, and a UN panel of experts mandated to study the funding of South Sudan’s war are needed.

Sudan and South Sudan’s Merging Conflicts, Africa Report N°223, 29 Jan 2015

The conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan are increasingly merged. Halting drift toward a Uganda-Sudan proxy war on the Sudan-South Sudan border requires better coordination by regional organisations and more engagement by influential outside powers, notably China and the U.S., including via the UN Security Council. A UN-imposed arms embargo, improved border monitoring, and a UN panel of experts mandated to study the funding of South Sudan’s war are needed.

South Sudan: Jonglei – “We Have Always Been at War”, Africa Report N°221, 22 Dec 2014

South Sudan’s Jonglei state is emblematic of the regional, national and local challenges to peace and of the limitations of trying to resolve a conflict by engaging only two of the nearly two-dozen armed groups in the country.

Kenya: Al-Shabaab – Closer to Home, Africa Briefing N°102, 25 Sep 2014

One year after the Westgate attack, Al-Shabaab has become more entrenched and active in Kenya. Meanwhile, the country’s immediate post-Westgate unity has broken down in the face of increasing attacks, and the political elites, security services, and ethnic and faith communities are beset by mutual suspicion and recriminations.

Eritrea: Ending the Exodus?, Africa Briefing N°100, 8 Aug 2014

Eritrea’s youth exodus has significantly reduced the young nation’s human capital. While this has had advantages for the government – allowing the departure of those most dissatisfied and most likely to press for political change – the growing social and political impact of mass migration at home and abroad demands concerted domestic and international action.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab – It Will Be a Long War, Africa Briefing N°99, 26 Jun 2014

Despite military gains against Somalia’s Islamist group Al-Shabaab, the insurgents’ defeat will remain elusive until the Somali government and its international partners address longstanding social – often clan-based – grievances through parallel local and national processes, as the basis for the revival of conventional governmental authority.

South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name, Africa Report N°217, 10 Apr 2014

Refocusing international engagement as well as the peace negotiations is essential to stop South Sudan’s raging civil war from claiming ever more lives. 中文

Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (III): The Limits of Darfur’s Peace Process, Africa Report N°211, 27 Jan 2014

If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country’s multiple conflicts need to develop a more holistic means of addressing both local conflicts and nationwide grievances.

中文

Somalia: Puntland’s Punted Polls, Africa Briefing N°97, 19 Dec 2013

Puntland’s presidential election, scheduled for January, threatens to exacerbate clan tensions and polarise the population. To keep the regional state on the path of democratisation, deep investment from local, national and international actors will be crucial. 

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