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Ethiopia/Eritrea

Eritrea: Ending the Exodus?

Africa Briefing N°100, 8 August 2014

African asylum seekers gather for a morning meeting during an overnight protest after leaving Holot open detention centre in southern Israel's Negev desert, June 28, 2014. REUTERS/Finbarr O'Reilly

Eritrea’s youth exodus has significantly reduced the young nation’s human capital. While this has had advantages for the government – allowing the departure of those most dissatisfied and most likely to press for political change – the growing social and political impact of mass migration at home and abroad demands concerted domestic and international action.

Recent Reports

Eritrea: Ending the Exodus?, Africa Briefing N°100, 8 Aug 2014

Eritrea’s youth exodus has significantly reduced the young nation’s human capital. While this has had advantages for the government – allowing the departure of those most dissatisfied and most likely to press for political change – the growing social and political impact of mass migration at home and abroad demands concerted domestic and international action.

Ethiopia: Prospects for Peace in Ogaden, Africa Report N°207, 6 Aug 2013

The most credible attempt at talks to end decades of armed conflict in Ogaden may soon resume, but concerted efforts need to be made to guide them to a peaceful resolution.

Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition, Africa Report N°200, 28 Mar 2013

Change is in the air in Eritrea, a highly authoritarian state, but any political transition will require internal political inclusion and channels for external dialogue if it is to preserve stability and improve Eritrean life. 中文

Ethiopia After Meles, Africa Briefing N°89, 22 Aug 2012

The West will need to show tougher love to his successor than it did to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who died Monday, if one of its most important regional allies is to remain stable.

Eritrea: The Siege State, Africa Report N°163, 21 Sep 2010

To prevent Eritrea from becoming the Horn of Africa’s next failed state, the international community must engage more with the country.

Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents, Africa Report N°153, 4 Sep 2009

The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia’s political system. The regime transformed the hitherto centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds.

Beyond the Fragile Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Averting New War, Africa Report N°141, 17 Jun 2008

The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia’s refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo.

Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War, Africa Briefing N°48, 5 Nov 2007

The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military build-up along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis.

Ethiopia and Eritrea: Preventing War, Africa Report N°101, 22 Dec 2005

The fragile peace maintained by Ethiopia and Eritrea since they signed a comprehensive agreement at Algiers in December 2000 is fraying dangerously. With a costly two-year war now followed by nearly five years of stalemate, patience on both sides of the border has worn thin, and there are worrying signs that the countdown to renewed conflict may have begun.

Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?, Africa Report N°68, 24 Sep 2003

The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war – which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 – or solidify their peace agreement.

Latest Podcast


Ethiopia's Transition

22 Aug 2012: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi died on 20 August 2012. Emilio Manfredi, Crisis Group’s Ethiopia Analyst, explains the profound national and regional consequences of the passing of the man who ruled the country for over two decades.