Despite military gains against Somalia’s Islamist group Al-Shabaab, the insurgents’ defeat will remain elusive until the Somali government and its international partners address longstanding social – often clan-based – grievances through parallel local and national processes, as the basis for the revival of conventional governmental authority.
01 November 2014
Joint Somali National Army (SNA)/AMISOM operation 3 Oct liberated Adale, Middle Shabelle; strategic port town and last Al-Shabaab coastal stronghold Barawe, Lower Shabelle, 6 Oct. AMISOM troops also ...
Puntland’s presidential election, scheduled for January, threatens to exacerbate clan tensions and polarise the population. To keep the regional state on the path of democratisation, deep investment from local, national and international actors will be crucial.
As a new Somali government is established, Turkey’s engagement in the war-ravaged country must be thoughtful and carefully coordinated so as not to lead to yet another failed international intervention.
If the international community can agree on but a few core policies, there is the best chance in years to foster peace in Somalia.
If Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) – incompetent, corrupt and hobbled by weak leadership – does not reform within six months, the international community should withdraw support and concentrate on more effective local administrations.
Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) must engage dissidents among the country’s insurgent groups in order to strengthen its authority and combat al-Qaeda inspired extremists.
The stalled electoral process has plunged Somaliland into a serious political crisis that presents yet another risk of destabilisation for the region. If its hard-won political stability collapses under the strain of brinkmanship and intransigence, clan leaders might remobilise militias, in effect ending its dream of independence.
The semi-autonomous north-eastern Somali region of Puntland, once touted as a success of the “building blocks” approach to reestablishing national stability and widely viewed as one of the most prosperous parts of Somalia, is experiencing a three-year rise in insecurity and political tension.
Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of collapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military intervention since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world’s worst humanitarian and security crises.
Somalia’s Islamic Courts fell even more dramatically than they rose. In little more than a week in December 2006, Ethiopian and Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces killed hundreds of Islamist fighters and scattered the rest in a lightning offensive. On 27 December, the Council of Somali Islamic Courts in effect dissolved itself, surrendering political leadership to clan leaders.
Somalia: From Troubled Transition to a Tarnished Transition?
20 Aug 2012: Time has run out for a smooth end to the current transitional institutions in Somalia. Any further political turmoil will have an adverse effect on the fragile security and humanitarian gains.
Somalia Conflict Risk Alert
27 Nov 2006
Conflict Risk Alert: Somalia
12 Jul 2005
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