Sudan's government is in survival mode. As it drifts away from its former radical Islamist ideology toward a new foreign policy pragmatism, Western powers should encourage Khartoum to solve the internal wars that have done so much damage to the country and blocked the normalisation of external relations with this increasingly active player in the Middle East.
02 May 2016
Referendum held in Darfur 11-13 April on whether region should remain five states or be reunited, amid reports of low turnout and ongoing fighting: Darfur Referendum Commission 23 April said 97% voted ...
The two-year-old flare-up of violence in Darfur continues, adding 100,000 people this year to more than 2.5 million who have lost their homes since war began in 2003. Sudanese, regional and international peace processes have stalled. They should restart with parallel initiatives that take into better account all of Darfur’s communities and armed groups.
President Bashir’s year-old promise of national dialogue is faltering through a lack of political will, factional manoeuvring, and looming elections. Though the threat of economic and political crisis has eased, renewed commitment to substantive, structured, broad-based dialogue is vital if Sudan is to escape the cycle of war and humanitarian crisis.
The conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan are increasingly merged. Halting drift toward a Uganda-Sudan proxy war on the Sudan-South Sudan border requires better coordination by regional organisations and more engagement by influential outside powers, notably China and the U.S., including via the UN Security Council. A UN-imposed arms embargo, improved border monitoring, and a UN panel of experts mandated to study the funding of South Sudan’s war are needed.
If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country’s multiple conflicts need to develop a more holistic means of addressing both local conflicts and nationwide grievances.
Unless the marginalisation of Sudan’s East is addressed, renewed war and further fragmentation of the country is a growing possibility.
The war in Sudan’s Blue Nile state will grind on until the Khartoum government re-engages in national dialogue with opposition forces, including the Blue Nile rebels.
Only a comprehensive solution can end Sudan’s vicious civil wars that are exacting a horrendous toll on the country and its peoples.
Last week’s arrests of senior security figures for allegedly plotting a coup showed how close Sudan is to even greater violence and disintegration. Only managed but fundamental governance reform can help it escape chronic conflict and humanitarian misery.
Unless Sudan’s grievances are addressed by a more inclusive government, the country risks further violence and disintegration even after the South’s independence becomes official in July.
9 February 2016: International Crisis Group and the Embassy of Japan in Belgium co-hosted the event "From Prolonged Crisis to Sustainable Peace: Challenges for South Sudan and the Role of the International Community", on 17 November 2015 in Brussels to discuss how to support the August peace agreement to end South Sudan’s civil war.
South Sudan: Keeping Faith with the IGAD Peace Process
27 July 2015: Watch Crisis Group's South Sudan Analyst Casie Copeland explain how IGAD can overcome its challenges.
Sudan and South Sudan
29 April 2014: In this series of video interviews, Casie Copeland, Crisis Group's South Sudan Consulting Analyst and Jérôme Tubiana, Crisis Group's Sudan Senior Analyst discuss the escalating conflict in Sudan and South Sudan.
A Darfur Decade: Ten Years of War
10 Feb 2014: The war in Darfur started more than ten years ago and continues to affect civilian populations within western Sudan as well as in neighbouring states, including Chad and the newly formed South Sudan.
Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (II): War in Blue Nile
June 2013: The war in Darfur started more than ten years ago and continues to affect civilian populations within western Sudan as well as in neighbouring states, including Chad and the newly formed South Sudan.
Preventing Full-scale War between Sudan and South Sudan
18 Apr 2012
Stopping the Spread of Sudan’s New Civil War
26 Sep 2011
Sudan: Abyei at a Dangerous Tipping Point
5 May 2011
UN Darfur Needs Robust Protection Force
25 May 2007
Darfur Demands Sanctions, Not Words: Spreading Conflict Threatens Millions in Region
13 December 2006
Sudan’s Islamists: From Salvation to Survival
27 May 2016: In this podcast, Crisis Group's Horn of Africa analyst Magnus Taylor discusses with our Director of Communications & Outreach Hugh Pope the main findings of our recent report Sudan’s Islamists: From Salvation to Survival. The wide-ranging discussion covers Sudan’s domestic political balances amid continued conflicts in peripheral areas, the regime’s new foreign policy pragmatism and Middle Eastern orientation, and how the West can have a more constructive relationship with Khartoum.
هل ينزلق السودان في حرب أهلية جديدة؟
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