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Homepage > Regions / Countries > Africa > Horn of Africa > Sudan > The Chaos in Darfur

The Chaos in Darfur

Africa Briefing N°110 22 Apr 2015

A new arrival looks at a UN peacekeeper upon her arrival at the Zam Zam IDP camp, near Al Fashir in North Darfur, April 9, 2015. The new arrivals at the IDP camp were fleeing from clashes in East Jebel Marra and Tawilla. REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah

REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah


OVERVIEW

Violence in the Darfur region of Sudan’s far west continues unabated. Some 450,000 persons were displaced in 2014 and another 100,000 in January 2015 alone, adding to some two million long-term internally displaced persons (IDPs) since fighting erupted in 2003. The government remains wedded to a military approach and reluctant to pursue a negotiated national solution that would address all Sudan’s conflicts at once and put the country on the path of a democratic transition. Khartoum’s reliance on a militia-centred counter-insurgency strategy is increasingly counter-productive – not least because it stokes and spreads communal violence. Ending Darfur’s violence will require – beyond countrywide negotiations between Khartoum, the rebel Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) coalition and unarmed players – addressing its local dimensions, within both national talks and parallel local processes.

Darfur’s complex and multiplying local conflicts are increasingly ill-understood, due to lack of information and the limitations of reporting from the hybrid UN/African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). Intensification of combat with rebel factions prompted the government in 2014 to fall back again upon notorious military auxiliaries, this time its new Rapid Support Forces (RSF), thus worsening violence and displacements. Arab militias and paramilitary forces like the RSF attacked non-Arab communities accused of being pro-rebel, fought each other, took part in communal conflicts and even hit at regular government troops.

Increasingly divided over Sudan, the UN Security Council has been unable to develop consensus around a new peace strategy and largely supports the untenable status quo. Discussions are now underway with the government about a possible UNAMID drawdown. Without strong support from New York and the African Union (AU) when the government obstructs it, the mission has been too deferential to Khartoum and systematically presented a narrative of an improving situation divorced from reality. It has also frequently failed to intervene and protect civilians, leading the UN to acknowledge “record levels of civilian displacement not seen since 2004”.

Peace in Darfur is unlikely separate from a solution to Sudan’s wider national problems, for which a number of processes need to be revived, modified or initiated, including an effort, especially in the UN Security Council, to review and rethink policy on Darfur and toward Khartoum generally. This briefing has a more limited purpose. It concentrates on Darfur dynamics, in particular a mapping of the complex conflict lines between and among communities and armed groups and militias, some sponsored by the government.

Suffering from a weak economy and without a military breakthrough, Khartoum appeared more open in 2014 to the inclusion of armed opposition in an AU-facilitated national dialogue. The AU mediation hoped to obtain separate ceasefires for Darfur and the “Two Areas” (South Kordofan and Blue Nile) in a “synchronised” way, paving the way for SRF inclusion in the dialogue. However, the process stalled, largely over Khartoum’s reluctance to negotiate with Darfur rebels on a basis other than the 2011 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). While this may suit the government in the short term, the region’s continued fragmentation into competing armed communities will become increasingly difficult to arrest and reverse.

Darfur’s different conflicts cannot be addressed all at once or in the same way. Crisis Group analysed the limits of the existing peace process in January 2014, and many of its recommendations are still relevant, in particular to review the DDPD, some of whose provisions require establishing a national consensus around the relationship between central government and peripheries, while others – chief of them the increasing communal violence – are too local to solve by national dialogue only. While Sudan’s government has remained reluctant to compromise on the DDPD and invokes as justification the document’s importance for Qatar – which indeed considers it a major diplomatic achievement despite the lack of implementation – it would be in Khartoum’s own interest to address swiftly both the national and local dimensions of the violence in Darfur. For the latter, the government should in particular:

  • progressively control and disarm paramilitary forces and militias, via a mix of incentives, such as participation in local peace processes and the national dialogue, as well as development and services, but also coercion, including arrest and prosecution of those responsible for crimes; and
  • initiate and support communal dialogue and durable local peace and reconciliation mechanisms involving traditional and militia leaders, while leaving mediation to respected, neutral Sudanese, including from outside Darfur, and limiting the government’s role to facilitating, supporting and guaranteeing agreements.

To advance resolution of Darfur’s conflicts, the government and armed opposition should:

  • reach a ceasefire in Darfur, synchronised with a similar one in the Two Areas, including provisions for unfettered humanitarian access in both; and
  • develop proposals to address concerns of all Darfur communities on issues such as security, land ownership, services and development.

International players, particularly the AU, arguably have a more important role to play in national than local processes. However, the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council should:

  • agree on a Sudan strategy and then properly support it with political backing and appropriate resources.

Nairobi/Brussels, 22 April 2015

 
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Quotes

 jtubiana

“Sudan is spiralling ever deeper into a multi-front war. Internal fragmentation along tribal lines and agendas has deepened. Nearly a million Darfurians have been newly displaced since early 2013, largely because of fighting between paramilitaries escaping government control. The Sudanese government’s counter-insurgency strategy based on militias and paramilitaries is increasingly backfiring”.

Jérôme Tubiana, Consulting Analyst

 ejhogendoorn

“To stop the chaos, Khartoum must allow for parallel peace processes locally, nationally and regionally. At the same time it should end its coercive strategy and gradually disarm militias and paramilitaries. Both government and opposition need to address the concerns of all communities from which the fighting forces are drawn, notably Darfur’s Arabs”.

EJ Hogendoorn, Deputy Africa Program Director

 cero

“African Union efforts to reach ceasefires in Sudan’s Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile provinces have stalled, largely because of Khartoum’s reluctance to negotiate on a basis other than the 2011 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur. But the Doha process is still largely unimplemented, and local fragmentation into armed communities now threatens to wreak havoc in neighbouring countries, including South Sudan. It is time for all to agree that the African Union, whose High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan and South Sudan has a mandate for those two countries, should coordinate with national processes and mitigate regional risks”.

Comfort Ero, Africa Program Director

 

“There is no effective international Darfur peace strategy. The UN Security Council is increasingly divided over Sudan, and its hybrid mission with the African Union has too often proven too deferential to Khartoum. Aside from the humanitarian catastrophe, the international cost of the Darfur conflict alone likely is $20-25 billion since 2003. It is vital that the African Union and UN Security Council agree and firmly implement a new Sudan strategy that allows for parallel peace processes on three levels: local inter-tribal conferences, national dialogue and regional security talks”.

Jean-Marie Guéhenno, President & CEO