Nigeria's Elections: Avoiding a Political Crisis
Africa Report N°123
28 Mar 2007
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Nigeria’s democracy faces a crucial test. Presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections scheduled for 14 and 21 April 2007 are not a routine quadrennial ritual. Success would offer the country the first opportunity to achieve a genuine constitutional succession from one civilian administration to another since independence in 1960, thus consolidating democracy. Failure could provoke violent rejection of the results by wide sections of the populace, denial of legitimacy and authority to the new government, intensification of the insurgency in the Niger Delta and its possible extension to other areas, with potential for wider West African destabilisation. The preparatory phases have indicated failings in terms of basic fairness for the opposition, transparency and respect for the rule of law. Unless stakeholders make urgent efforts to rescue the credibility of the process, Nigeria’s already serious internal instability could be fatally aggravated.
The first threat to the process is President Olusegun Obasanjo’s attempts to impose a successor by excluding strong candidates such as Vice President Atiku Abubakar, through intimidation, judicial proceedings and politically-motivated corruption charges. His effort to hold on to power has antagonised the political establishment and divided leaders of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), who counted on an open succession contest to satisfy their ambitions. The resulting frustrations propelled establishment heavyweights into opposition and increased the ferocity of a campaign marred by violence, bribery and corruption.
Even more worrying for electoral credibility is Obasanjo’s tight leash on the finances of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), his direct influence on senior officials in charge of administering the process, the use of security services to intimidate opposition and the doubts raised over the validity of the voter registration exercise. There is a high risk the president, who has declared the election a “do or die affair for the PDP”, will try to obtain a victory through intimidation and large-scale rigging, resulting in a violent challenge of the results by the opposition. If the PDP loses, he could be tempted to suspend the constitution.
Such a crisis might not necessarily lead to a new military coup but would definitely undermine state authority and exacerbate long-term instability. In the Niger Delta, where militant groups demanding regional control of oil resources are already stepping up their anti-government insurgency, rigged elections would diminish any opportunity for peaceful settlement and improved governance.
Nigeria’s fragile stability is in the balance. Too many of its elections have led to dramatic crises and military take-overs. The Obasanjo presidency has recorded impressive achievements, including significant economic reforms and foreign debt reduction. He has championed democracy across Africa and mediated some of its most difficult conflicts. But he now needs to commit to a free and fair electoral process at home to save Nigeria from decline and risk of collapse. Ethnic and religious conflicts have already caused over 15,000 deaths and displaced more than three million during his presidency. Successful and credible elections also require immediate and pro-active national, regional and wider international involvement to guard against electoral violence and manipulation.
1. Pursue immediate resolution of differences with Vice President Atiku Abubakar, by respecting court judgements, supporting due constitutional process and accepting joint mediation by the African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to resolve the dispute and avoid a post-electoral political crisis.
2. Ensure timely release of funds to INEC and respect its independence.
3. Direct the security agencies to maintain neutrality between all parties and candidates, conduct themselves with the highest standards of professionalism and allow all citizens to freely exercise their right to vote.
4. Ensure constitutional provisions are applied impartially and consistently so as to achieve speedy and fair justice through the remaining stages of the electoral process.
5. Prepare to adjudicate potential electoral disputes within the time constraints set by the constitution.
6. Ensure greater transparency in relations with other election stakeholders by convening national, state and local-level consultations with parties, security agencies, civil society and national and international election observers and monitors, to disseminate information, discuss problems, better coordinate activities and mitigate risks of violence.
7. Facilitate effective domestic and international observance and monitoring throughout the country, including by providing unlimited access to polling stations and counting centres and arranging special security for foreign observers and monitors in the Niger Delta.
8. End impunity for electoral malfeasance by cooperating closely with security agencies to prosecute persons accused of committing such offences.
9. Monitor and publicise the election finances of candidates and parties to ensure they conform to the Electoral Act 2006.
10. Intensify voter education, including through mass and community-level media, particularly in the last few days before the elections.
11. Accept court judgements, desist from resorting to violence and support joint AU-ECOWAS mediation to resolve electoral disputes and avoid a post-electoral political crisis.
12. Enforce the Code of Conduct by expelling violators and use the Code as an education tool with members to reduce tension and violence.
13. Perform their role as electoral witnesses with civility and refrain from any manipulation of the process, including during casting and counting of ballots and collation and announcement of results.
14. Take all appropriate measures to curb electoral violence, including ensuring timely deployment of adequately equipped and briefed personnel, and cooperate with other security agencies including the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps.
15. Work cooperatively with other stakeholders to provide proactive, impartial policing and ensure that existing laws are applied to alleged offenders in order to end impunity.
16. Intensify efforts in the last weeks before the elections to educate voters on the electoral process, including their rights and duties and how to mobilise to defend the sanctity of their votes.
17. Encourage religious leaders and traditional rulers to use their moral authority to curb violence at the polls.
18. Participate in INEC forums on the administration of the electoral process and disseminate information so as to minimise the risks of violence related to unjustified suspicions of fraud.
19. Appoint a joint committee of wise men composed of former African heads of state to mediate the Obasanjo-Abubakar feud and engage actively with all election stakeholders to resolve disputes consensually and prevent a post-electoral crisis.
20. Encourage the Nigerian government to facilitate full access to international monitors and observers as a means of ensuring transparency and accountability in the electoral process.
21. Recall to President Obasanjo and the PDP that the transparency of the electoral process, the credibility of its results and the legitimacy of the new government will strongly affect Nigeria’s international standing as well as the quality of bilateral relations and economic cooperation.
Dakar/Brussels, 28 March 2007