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South East Asia

Thailand’s Lengthening Roadmap to Elections

Asia Report N°274, 10 December 2015

Thai Royal Guards march in front of a portrait of the King Bhumibol Adulyadej during a military parade as a part of a celebration of his upcoming birthday in Bangkok, Thailand, December 3, 2015. The revered King, the world's longest reigning monarch, will turn 88 on December 5. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

Thailand’s military regime promised a return to democracy, but keeps prolonging its power by delaying general elections. Beyond a new constitution, Thailand needs a new social contract to resolve the crippling struggle between elected politicians and an unelected establishment that includes the army, bureaucracy and palace.

Recent Reports

Thailand’s Lengthening Roadmap to Elections, Asia Report N°274, 10 Dec 2015

Thailand’s military regime promised a return to democracy, but keeps prolonging its power by delaying general elections. Beyond a new constitution, Thailand needs a new social contract to resolve the crippling struggle between elected politicians and an unelected establishment that includes the army, bureaucracy and palace.

The Myanmar Elections: Results and Implications, Asia Briefing N°147, 9 Dec 2015

Aung San Suu Kyi’s landslide electoral victory was a historic success for Myanmar. To meet the high expectations that resulted, the country’s new leaders will need to balance carefully ties with China with those with the West, credibly lead a fragile peace process and above all handle wisely their relations with a still-powerful army.

Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Nationwide Ceasefire Remains Elusive, Asia Briefing N°146, 16 Sep 2015

A ceasefire between Myanmar’s government and armed groups is tantalising close. It would end 60 years of armed conflict and ease the path of democratic transition. But time is short before historic elections on 8 November, and any failure to seal an accord could trigger renewed clashes that would be hard to bring back under control.

Southern Thailand: Dialogue in Doubt, Asia Report N°270, 8 Jul 2015

The insurgency that has plagued southern Thailand for more than a decade continues to fester. Peace talks have collapsed and rifts between the government and separatists remain deep. Resolving the conflict requires Bangkok to accept pluralism and decentralisation, and rebels to articulate their goals and commit to a dialogue process.

ไทย

Myanmar’s Electoral Landscape, Asia Report N°266, 28 Apr 2015

Myanmar’s November elections will be a critical inflection point. Despite significant progress in election administration and in ending a two-generation-long civil war, the fragile peace process and incomplete political reforms constitute major challenges. All sides must ensure that zero-sum politics around the elections does not imperil the transition.

A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability, Asia Report N°263, 3 Dec 2014

Martial law has brought calm but not peace to Thailand’s febrile politics. The military regime’s stifling of dissent precludes a frank dialogue on the kingdom’s future and could lead to greater turmoil than that which brought about the May 2014 coup.

ไทย   中文

Myanmar: The Politics of Rakhine State, Asia Report N°261, 22 Oct 2014

The highly volatile situation in Myanmar’s Rakhine State adds dangerously to the country’s political and religious tensions. Long-term, incremental solutions are critical for the future of Rakhine State and the country as a whole.

中文

Counting the Costs: Myanmar’s Problematic Census, Asia Briefing N°144, 15 May 2014

Myanmar’s controversial census has inflamed ethnic tensions at a critical moment in the peace process. Releasing the data will require great political sensitivity to avoid further violence, all the more so with elections scheduled for 2015.

Myanmar’s Military: Back to the Barracks?, Asia Briefing N°143, 22 Apr 2014

It was Myanmar’s military that initiated the end of its own dictatorship; to advance stable reform, it needs to continue withdrawing from civilian life.

Not a Rubber Stamp: Myanmar’s Legislature in a Time of Transition, Asia Briefing N°142, 13 Dec 2013

Although Myanmar’s nascent legislature has proved more vibrant and influential than many expected, serious individual and institutional capacity constraints are impeding the effective, efficient lawmaking necessary for the country’s full democratic transition. 中文
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