When twelve months of intense negotiations between Iran and the P5+1/EU3+3 ended with yet another extension, sceptics saw this as confirmation that the talks are doomed. But it would be as grave a mistake to underestimate the real progress as to overstate the chances of ultimate success. A landmark agreement is still within reach if both sides adopt more flexible postures on enrichment capacity and sanctions relief.
02 March 2015
Progress in nuclear talks between Iran and U.S. during bilateral negotiations in Munich 6-8 Feb: Iran appeared to accept P5+1 (also known as EU3+3) formula for curtailing enrichment capacity, length ...
November’s deadline could be the last chance to avoid a breakdown in the Iran and the P5+1 nuclear talks. Compromise on Iran’s enrichment capacity is key to ending the impasse, requiring both sides to walk back from maximalist positions and focus on realistic solutions.
A comprehensive nuclear accord may be in reach if both sides – Iran and the Security Council permanent members plus Germany – show determination to settle on a technical agreement and isolate the deal from its complex regional context.
The nuclear negotiations with Iran that resume in Moscow on Monday are likely to hit a wall and, without a change in approach, risk break-down with dire consequences.
As the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program edges closer to military confrontation, talks may be a way out but require mutual compromise and Western abandonment of the notion that a mix of threats and crippling sanctions will force Iran to back down.
The revelation in 2009 of nuclear facilities near Qom intensified international criticism of Iran’s opaque nuclear development.
For perhaps the first time since Iran and the U.S. broke ties in 1980, there are real prospects for fundamental change.
Though much of the focus since Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad’s June 2005 electoral victory has been on Iran’s foreign policy, the fate of his presidency will ride at least as much on his domestic performance.
The Iran Nuclear Accord: First Step in a Long Journey
25 November 2013: The International Crisis Group strongly welcomes the 24 November agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany).
Spider Web: The Making and Unmaking of Iran Sanctions
March 2013: This interactive highlights the major unilateral, multilateral and international sanctions imposed on Iran and breaks them down by year, economic impact, trigger, targets and reversibility.
Iran's Nuclear Crisis
27 May 2014: Ali Vaez, Senior Iran Analyst for the International Crisis Group, discusses the latest developments in nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and suggests a way forward that would satisfy all sides.
International Crisis Group at Work: Iran
7 March 2013: Ali Vaez, Senior Iran Analyst for the International Crisis Group, discusses the latest round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 on sanctions and Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
Iran & the Nuclear Talks
26 June 2012: Ali Vaez, Crisis Group's Senior Iran Analyst, discusses the latest round of nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 and advises how best to avoid a military confrontation.
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