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North Africa

The Prize: Fighting for Libya’s Energy Wealth

Middle East and North Africa Report N°165, 3 December 2015

Sharara oil field, southern Libya, March 2015. CRISIS GROUP/Claudia Gazzini

The imminent collapse of Libya’s economy could impoverish millions, foster chaos and more radicalisation. At the heart of Libya’s misery is frenzied competition for control over the country’s oil resources. Ongoing UN-led talks should urgently prioritise economic governance, local ceasefires and armed defence of oil facilities.

Recent Reports

The Prize: Fighting for Libya’s Energy Wealth, Middle East and North Africa Report N°165, 3 Dec 2015

The imminent collapse of Libya’s economy could impoverish millions, foster chaos and more radicalisation. At the heart of Libya’s misery is frenzied competition for control over the country’s oil resources. Ongoing UN-led talks should urgently prioritise economic governance, local ceasefires and armed defence of oil facilities.

Algeria and Its Neighbours, Middle East and North Africa Report N°164, 12 Oct 2015

Algeria has emerged as an indispensable broker of stability in North Africa and the Sahel. But, especially as it enters a generational transition in domestic politics, it needs better strategies to deal with financial pressures, a neighbourhood in turmoil, cross-border jihadi threats, and ongoing tensions with France and Morocco. It should also resolve a presidential succession that is paralysing institutions.

Reform and Security Strategy in Tunisia, Middle East and North Africa Report N°161, 23 Jul 2015

Tunisia’s security apparatus is dysfunctional, at once fragmenting, asserting authority over democratic institutions, and failing to block significant jihadi advances. Without a comprehensive new strategy including reform of Tunisia’s internal security forces, the country will continue to stumble from crisis to crisis, and to​ swing between chaos and renewed dictatorship.

Libya: Getting Geneva Right, Middle East and North Africa Report N°157, 26 Feb 2015

After six months of worsening clashes, Libya is on the brink of all-out civil war and catastrophic state collapse. All parties must press the two rival authorities to join a national unity government, resolutely uphold the UN arms embargo, and persuade regional actors to stop fuelling the conflict.

Tunisia’s Elections: Old Wounds, New Fears, Middle East and North Africa Briefing N°44, 19 Dec 2014

Tunisia’s presidential election highlights the multiple divides that trouble the country and region. Unless the winner governs as a truly national leader, representing all Tunisians and not just his base, current tensions could escalate into violence.

Tunisia’s Borders (II): Terrorism and Regional Polarisation, Middle East and North Africa Briefing N°41, 21 Oct 2014

The growing link between cartels and armed jihadi militants along Tunisia’s borders with Algeria and Libya, combined with heightened ideological polarisation, could form an explosive mix ahead of Tunisia’s legislative and presidential elections.

The Tunisian Exception: Success and Limits of Consensus, Middle East and North Africa Briefing N°37, 5 Jun 2014

To prevent a rerun of last year’s political crisis, Tunisia needs far-sighted political precautions that can preserve the national compromise beyond the 2014 elections.

Tunisia’s Borders: Jihadism and Contraband, Middle East and North Africa Report N°148, 28 Nov 2013

Unless the permeability of the country’s borders is addressed, cross-border trafficking will increase jihadis’ disruptive potential and intensify the corruption of border authorities.

Marching in Circles: Egypt’s Dangerous Second Transition, Middle East/North Africa Briefing N°35, 7 Aug 2013

Nearly two-and-half years after Hosni Mubarak’s overthrow, Egypt is embarking on a transition in many ways disturbingly like the one it just experienced, only with different actors at the helm and far more fraught and violent.

中文

Trial by Error: Justice in Post-Qadhafi Libya, Middle East/North Africa Report N°140, 17 Apr 2013

Unless Libya breaks the cycle of violence and urgently reforms its justice system, there is a real risk of an increase in assassinations, urban violence and communal conflicts.

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