Global Briefing 2011
On 24 and 25 October 2011, Crisis Group held its third – and largest to date – Global Briefing in Brussels. The high-level event was led by Crisis Group’s senior staff and Board members and was attended by 90 representatives from international diplomacy, business, civil society and media. The aim of this exclusive gathering was to provide the participants with expert analysis of the world’s current conflicts and to exchange constructive recommendations for the resolution of these crises.
The discussion topics included the prospects for democracy in the Middle East and North Africa, Islamist extremism in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Indonesia, looming challenges in Central Asia and the North Caucasus, threats to peace in Latin America and dynamics in the South China Sea.
Read a summary of the Global Briefing 2011:
Stability, Justice, and Peace: An Achievable Trinity?
Tom Pickering (Board Chairman), Kofi Annan (Board Member), Louise Arbour (President & CEO) and Lyse Doucet (BBC Presenter & Special Correspondent)
The opening plenary set the scene for the rest of the Briefing, introducing many of the overarching themes that were examined in later sessions. Chief among them were the tensions inherent in the pursuit of stability, justice and peace; the unrest in North Africa and the Middle East; the violation of trust between governments and their people in the context of the global financial crisis; the international community’s approach towards failed states; and the application of the Responsibility to Project doctrine and the different criteria necessary to justify an intervention.
Crisis Group’s Origins: Residual Issues from the Balkans
General Wesley Clark (Board Member), Pär Stenbäck (Board Member), Sabine Freizer (Europe Program Director) and Marko Prelec (Balkans Project Director)
The panel on the Balkans identified a number of issues that continue to undermine stability and development in the region, despite the great progress that has been made since the end of the wars. These challenges include the legacy of neurosis and the sabotage of stability by opposing forces; the limits of Bosnia’s power-sharing system; Serbia’s refusal to recognise Kosovo; and Macedonia’s political and ethnic tensions. Although in theory the prospect of EU membership gives the Balkans an additional incentive to achieve stability, the discussion concluded that accession is still out of reach for many countries, including Bosnia, Serbia and Macedonia, whose negotiations have all stalled.
The Future of Multilateralism: The United Nations and the European Union Conflict Preventers or Talk-Shops?
Lord Mark Malloch-Brown (Board Member), Javier Solana (Board Member), Fabienne Hara (Vice-President, Multilateral Affairs) and Alain Délétroz (Vice-President, Europe)
The panel on the future of multilateralism debated the relevance of the EU and the UN in conflict prevention and resolution against the backdrop of an unparalleled transfer of power to non-state actors and the preoccupation of global leaders with the financial crisis. The discussion focused on the shifting balance of powers in the Security Council, the renationalisation of foreign policy, the EU’s contribution to crisis management through the promise of enlargement and the impact of new security challenges on the international community’s ability to act multilaterally, among other topics.
The Caucasus and Central Asia: Existing Conflicts, Looming Challenges
Igor Ivanov (Board Member), Paul Quinn-Judge (Central Asia Project Director and Russia Adviser), Lawrence Scott Sheets (South Caucasus Project Director) and Ekaterina Sokirianskaia (North Caucasus Project Director)
The discussion on Central Asia examined, among other challenges, the risks of instability stemming from internal state collapse, external insurgency out of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the spillover effects of the Arab Spring. Regarding the North Caucasus, the debate focused on the spreading insurgency, the role of the Internet in facilitating this expansion, the generational shift in Islamisation from rural to urban communities and Russia’s strategy in the region. On the South Caucasus, the discussion touched upon the worsening Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and considered the international community’s role in normalising Russia-Georgia relations.
The Future of Conflict in the Middle East (Israel/Palestine, Israel/Arab World)
Nahum Barnea (Board Member), Robert Blecher (Israel-Palestine Project Director) and Hugh Pope (Turkey/Cyprus Project Director)
As change sweeps the Middle East the Arab-Israeli conflict stillsmoulders, with the gulf between Israel and the Palestinians deeper than ever.The panel on the future of conflict in the Middle East explored the recent escalation between Israel and Hamas, the consequences of the Syrian uprisings on Israel’s regional calculations and the Israel-Hizbollah conflict, Iran and Turkey’s respective roles in the region, the Obama administration’s attempts to advance the negotiations between Israel and Palestine, and the possible impact of the Palestinian quest for statehood at the UN on Israel-Palestinian relations.
Corruption and Crime: Threats to Peace in Latin America
Mark Schneider (Senior Vice-President/Special Adviser on Latin America), Javier Ciurlizza (Latin America Program Director) and Silke Pfeiffer (Colombia/Andes Project Director)
The discussion examined how crime and corruption posed the greatest threat to democracy, peace and stability throughout much of Latin America, particularly in Colombia, Guatemala and Venezuela. To combat these challenges, the panelists highlighted the importance of strengthening the region’s institutions and rule of law, and of encouraging the region’s civil society to serve as a catalyst for wider social transformation. They also identified the urgent need for international leaders, especially the U.S., to rethink their counter-narcotics policies and to focus on tackling corruption and promoting judicial reform, as opposed to exclusively arresting traffickers.
The Future of Democracy in North Africa and the Middle East (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria)
Ghassan Salamé (Board Member) and Rob Malley (Middle East and North Africa ProgramDirector), moderated by Joost Hiltermann (Middle East and North Africa Deputy Program Director)
The session on the Future of Democracy explored a wide range of issues relating to the popular protests that have shaken not only autocratswhose grip on power seemed unassailable but also thefoundations of regional order. The discussion topics included the general trajectory of the Arab Spring, the challenges it faces and the possible outcomes to which it might lead; the impact of these uprisings on the regional balance of power (particularly with regards to Turkey and Iran) and on Western influence and leverage; the role of Islamists in the new emerging configurations and how they are likely to position themselves in the future; what is likely to happen in Syria and what will determine whether the regime survives or falls at the hands of the protesters; what are the lessons to be drawn from Libya and can the events there serve as a model for elsewhere; and the reasons behind the international community’s failure to predict the Arab Spring, considering the strategic geopolitical importance of the Middle East.
The Future of Islamic Extremism:The Differing Cases of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Indonesia
Lalit Mansingh (Board Member), Samina Ahmed (South Asia Project Director), Sidney Jones (Asia Program Senior Adviser) and Candace Rondeaux (Afghanistan Senior Analyst)
How did Islamism become extreme in countries which had historically been moderate societies? Post Osama Bin Laden, how relevant is al-Qaeda? What will an Afghan civil war look like? Is Pakistan a failed state? What are the factors behind Indonesia’s relative success in combating local jihadi groups? These questions were at the heart of a heated debate that examined, among other topics, the major domestic determinants underpinning Islamic extremism in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Indonesia, the linkages between the different groups, the means and willingness of each government to tackle them, and the role that these insurgencies will likely play in their countries’ short and long-term futures.
The Intractable: Burma/Myanmar, Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe
Ayo Obe (Board Member), Jim Della-Giacoma (South East Asia Project Director), EJ Hogendoorn (Horn of Africa Project Director) and Piers Pigou (Southern Africa Project Director)
The Intractable session explored the different forms of instability affecting Burma/Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe, and examined the attempts at containing and resolving this violence. Discussion topics included the wisdom of the sanctions regime and the imperative of security sector reform in Zimbabwe; the promise of Myanmar’s new commitment to political, social and economic reforms and the international community’s role in supporting this opening;South Sudan’s challenges in creating an effective and inclusive government and the root causes of the continuing conflicts in the north; the urgent need for new political accommodation in Somalia and the problems plaguing the country’s Transitional Federal Government.
Hot and Cold: China, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula
Robert Templer (Asia Program Director), Dan Pinkston (North East Asia Deputy Project Director) and Mark Schneider (Senior Vice-President)
This panel focused on the political situation in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula, two flashpoints with implications far beyond Asia given the U.S.’s political and military involvement in the region. The discussion explored the growing pluralisation of Chinese policymaking as the country recovers from the global financial crisis and its share of the world’s market grows, and debated among other topics,the stabilityand resilience of the Pyongyang regime, the status of Kim Jong-il’s succession, the role that China’s domestic considerations play in its foreign policy decisions, the prospects for Six-Party Talks, and the repercussions of the Vietnam-India oil exploration partnership on the region’s political dynamics.
Electoral Salvation? Learning from Côte d’Ivoire, Preparing for the Congo, Looking Ahead to Kenya
Comfort Ero (Africa Program Director), Gilles Yabi (West Africa Project Director), Thierry Vircoulon (Central Africa Project Director) and Richard Atwood (Director of Research)
Despite many peaceful and credible polls each year in Africa,elections are major triggers of violence and instability in much of thecontinent. Yet not holding them is rarely a viable alternative. How, then,are the risks of political competition in fragile and divided societies bestmanaged? This panel provided a tour d’horizon of the elections-related challenges facing Africa today, focusing in particular on Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya. Discussion topics included how to identify the warning signs that polls risk leading to violence; the role of the international community, especially that of regional and sub-regional organisations, in managing post-electoral troubles; and the implementation of confidence-building measures between factions to increase the likelihood that the results are legitimate and accepted.
Give Us Solutions: From Prevention to Intervention – What Works?
Jean-Marie Guéhenno (Board Member), Nick Grono (Deputy President & COO), Sarah Cliffe (Special Representative/Director, World Development Report 2011, Conflict, Security and Development) and FabricePothier (Head of Policy Planning Unit, Private Office of the Secretary General, NATO HQ)
The final plenary was focused on conflict prevention and resolution strategies and attempted to find answers to the overarching and challenging question “What works?” The discussion explored a number of different themes, ranging from conflict trends since the end of the Cold War; the expansion of international activism; what has proven effective in preventing and managing conflict over the past twenty years and what has not; the role of institution-building in conflict prevention, as outlined in this year’s World Development Report; the lessons to be drawn from NATO’s operation in Libya regarding the effectiveness of military action; the key challenges facing the international architecture for conflict prevention; and the consequences of the economic crisis for the prospects of peace.