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1. The current situation
Photo: Supporters at Zimbabwean opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai's final election rally in Domboshava, about 40km from Harare, on 28 March 2008, the day before Zimbabwe went to the polls. Mike Hutchings/REUTERS. updated August 2009 After Mugabe’s victory in the flawed 2008 presidential election and over a year of power-sharing talks between ZANU-PF and MDC, the formation of a coalition government in February this year gave rise to cautious optimism. Several months later, Mugabe’s commitment to the unity government remains in question. Despite small signs of recovery with prices stabilising, schools re-opening and basic stocks returning to shops, the meagre implementation of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) and the deteriorating security situation give cause for worry. The international community should get actively involved in Zimbabwe and support the government because failure to do so would only ensure that it collapses and that the military establishment entrenches itself again. On the political front, tension is rising within the coalition government as the MDC becomes increasingly frustrated by ZANU-PF’s refusal to fulfil the terms of the GPA (signed in September last year) and the consequent lack of political progress. This dissatisfaction was strongly expressed on 29 June when MDC ministers boycotted a cabinet meeting that had been unilaterally rescheduled by President Mugabe, taking the opportunity to announce a list of grievances related to ZANU-PF’s “unwillingness” to resolve outstanding issues. These grievances concerned ZANU-PF political and economic appointments, Mugabe’s failure to convene the National Security Council, and continued harassment and arrests of MDC supporters. Indeed, five members of parliament have been given jail sentences of more than six months, which constitutionally forces them to vacate their seats. Several more MPs also face charges and await trial. This has led the MDC to strongly accuse ZANU-PF of trying to erode the party’s narrow majority in parliament. Some old regime elements seek to cause the new government to fail, out of fear of prosecution, loss of power and its financial sinecures, hatred for Tsvangirai and the MDC or a genuine belief that they are the guardians of the country’s liberation. They are thus continuing to provoke and frustrate the MDC, as shown by such actions as continuing arrests and detention of MDC activists, refusal of police to carry out some government orders and efforts to drive out the last few hundred white farmers by continued farm invasions. South Africa, in collaboration with SADC, should negotiate retirement of these hard-line senior security leaders in the lifespan of the inclusive government to counter the greatest stability risk – an attack against Prime Minister Tsvangirai or a military coup. Under the GPA, the three main political parties (ZANU-PF, MDC-T and MDC-M) agreed on a constitutional reform process that should be concluded within eighteen months. To this end a tri-partisan parliamentary commission was formed to prepare a draft, and on 13 July an all-stakeholders convention was held aimed at preparing the grounds for country-wide consultations. Mugabe’s ZANU-PF has been pushing for the adoption of a constitution draft known as the Kariba draft which it negotiated with both MDC formations in 2007. The MDC however now state they want to start fresh and consult the population on what it wants. On 29 June the parliamentary select committee for spearheading drafting of the new constitution rejected Kariba as the basis for the new constitution, with co-chair Munyaradzi Paul Mangwana (ZANU-PF) stating that the process needs to be driven by people, not by fixed positions. ZANU-PF responded by threatening to block the process. Most civil society and human rights groups also reject the Kariba draft on the basis that it would leave President Mugabe’s powers untouched and would allow him to stay in office for two more terms, and they campaign for a “people-driven process” that would really be all-encompassing. Amid unrelenting political haggling over the constitution and political appointments, tension and unrest is spreading outside the highest political echelons. While the government announced that 24-26 July would be dedicated to “national healing, reconciliation and integration” - in the first official recognition that there has been violence in the country - this was overshadowed by reports of increasing violence in the countryside. The security environment is reportedly worsening with reports of militias connected to ZANU-PF establishing bases in schools, as they did in the run-up to the second round of elections last year, and violence and intimidation against perceived MDC supporters increasing in villages. While the humanitarian situation shows signs of improvement, there is still a profound economic crisis that requires urgent measures. For several years, Zimbabwe had the highest annual inflation rate in the world, one that in 2008 had officially reached an inconceivable 231 million per cent. Hyperinflation wiped out savings, while falling production and inability to pay for imports have caused serious shortages of electricity, water, fuel and basic commodities. The Zimbabwean dollar became virtually worthless, and on 12 April 2009, the government announced that it had replaced its use for at least a year, until the economy picks up, with the U.S. dollar and the South African rand. That and other measures have succeeded in halting inflation. The food situation remains dire, however, with some seven million people reportedly having required aid to survive in recent months and humanitarian agencies forced to halve cereal rations to extend stocks due to donor shortfalls. While formerly empty shelves have started to fill again since the currency reform, the number of shoppers with access to foreign currency remains limited, and many basic goods are still out of reach of the poor. As a result of continued political uncertainty, the international community has been slow to embrace the new government. While there has been some welcome expansion of immediate humanitarian assistance, too many foreign donors — including the United States — are adopting a "wait-and-see" posture towards longer-term financial support for recovery and reconstruction. This approach could doom the new government to failure. In fact, hesitation risks thwarting the very changes the international community is seeking, both by weakening the hand of the MDC and moderates in Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party, and by undercutting popular support for the reform process. It would be premature for foreign governments to remove targeted sanctions — travel bans and asset freezes — against those thwarting the transition, or to adopt a "business-as-usual" posture toward the unity government. But there are actions they can take. Western governments should expand assistance under the "humanitarian plus" strategy that supports revival of the education, agriculture, health and water sanitation sectors. It should go further and also help empower a functioning civil service and legislature, rebuild key infrastructure, and support reform of politicised government institutions, including the judiciary and the police. Concise monthly summaries of the situation in Zimbabwe are available in Crisis Group's monthly bulletin, CrisisWatch.
In its latest briefing, Zimbabwe: Engaging the Inclusive Government (20 April 2009), Crisis Group made the following recommendations: For the policy briefing in full, please click here.
Zimbabwe’s March 2008 elections are the latest episode in the country's deepening political and economic crisis. The policies, corruption and repressive governance of President Robert Mugabe – in power for 28 years – and his ZANU-PF party bear primary responsibility for the severe economic slide, growing public discontent and Zimbabwe's international isolation. Mugabe, with his ZANU party, came to power in 1980 as Africa’s most feted leader, after a UK-brokered agreement ended a protracted guerrilla war against the white minority government of Ian Smith. The early 1980s were marked by a five-year brutal repression in Matabeleland and Midlands against the minority Ndebele population that supported rival ZAPU. ZAPU was later forced into a merger, leaving Mugabe head of a de facto one party state, under ZANU-PF, by 1987. State violence escalated since early 2000, when Mugabe lost a constitutional referendum on presidential powers and controversial land reforms, as the people voted in clear protest. The forcible acquisition of mostly white-owned farms by ZANU war veterans – beginning in the 1990s – also spiked after that electoral defeat, Mugabe’s only, crippling the economy and leading to chronic shortages of basic commodities. In the context of spiraling inflation and 80 per cent unemployment, the government launched “Operation Murambatsvina” in 2005 to forcibly clear urban slums, depriving over 18 per cent of the population of their homes or livelihoods. The opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) entered the political scene in 2000, but failed to break Mugabe’s majority in the 2000 parliamentary elections. Elections in 2002 and 2005 were marked by gross manipulation and suppression of dissent. The MDC split in November 2005 over whether to boycott elections for the newly formed senate. After a brutal government crackdown on the opposition in March 2007, the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) mandated South African President Mbeki to mediate between the government and the MDC – aiming to secure a new constitution and free and fair conditions for elections. Talks stalled in January 2008, when Mugabe called snap polls for March despite the MDC's call for postponement until new constitution adopted. Yet rather than let democracy run its course, Mugabe and his hardline supporters moved to force victory, withholding the results of the presidential election and launching a countrywide campaign of violence and intimidation. Tsvangirai withdrew from a second round presidential run-off set for 27 June over election violence, leaving Mugabe open to claim his sixth term in office on 29 June. Amid rising international condemnation, talks between ZANU-PF and the two MDC factions began on 24 July under the mediation of South African President Mbeki. After stop-start negotiations, a power-sharing deal between Mugabe and Tsvangirai was eventually signed on 11 September. Yet implementation has quickly stalled and as the humanitarian situation for the majority of Zimbabweans continues to worsen, a new political approach urgently required. For more detail on recent developments, see The current situation above. Zimbabweans continue to face economic turmoil and corruption, severe food shortages and the collapse of vital services. HIV/AIDS among adults stands at over 20 per cent, while a mounting cholera epidemic has left over 1,500 dead. By January 2009 the annual inflation rate stood at over 200 million per cent – the world's highest by far – making day-to-day life for Zimbabweans increasingly difficult. The government’s sticking plaster approach – including removing ten zeros from the Zimbabwean dollar in August 2008 – has done little to stem the economic crisis. Up to a third of the population is thought to have fled over recent years, and remittances from the growing diaspora have become a lifeline for many remaining. For more information, see the Zimbabwe conflict history on our databases and resources page.
For a month by month report on developments in Zimbabwe since September 2003, see Crisis Group's CrisisWatch database.
The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) launched an initiative in March 2007 to facilitate a negotiated political solution. The U.S., the EU, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland have placed targeted sanctions on Mugabe’s regime. In 2005, Mugabe’s government launched Operation Murambatsvina, which purported to eradicate "illegal dwellings" and "illicit activities". The UN report below documents the impact of the destruction that followed.
The Republic of Zimbabwe, formerly Rhodesia, is a land-locked country located in the southern part of Africa, between the Zambezi and Limpopo rivers. It is bordered by South Africa to the south, Botswana to the west, Zambia to the north and Mozambique to the east. The country is primiarly high plateau with a higher central plateau and with a mountain range forming the eastern border. Zimbabwe is home to the Victoria Falls, the world's largest waterfall.
Photo: A family sits outside their demolished house in Mbare. Courtesy of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR), www.iwpr.net.
2. What should be done
3. History of the crisis
4. Crisis Group analysis
5. News and other reporting
6. Important documents and websites
7. Maps and geographical information
8. Images of Zimbabwe
1. The current situation
Overview
2. What should be done?
The U.S., EU and others could, in accordance with their laws, sweeten the deal by removing targeted sanctions on those who accept and comply. The new South African president, working with the SADC mediation team, should negotiate with the generals, making clear that those who do not step aside risk prosecution for their crimes domestically or internationally.
3. History of the crisis
On 29 March 2008, Zimbabwe held combined presidential and parliamentary elections marred by extensive pre-poll manipulation. Only "friendly" countries and institutions were invited to observe the polls and most Western media were barred. Despite the skewed playing field, Zimbabwe's people clearly signaled their rejection of the status quo: for the first time, ZANU-PF lost control of parliament to the MDC, which made unprecedented gains in rural areas.
4. Crisis Group analysis
Crisis Group's publications on Zimbabwe
Other Crisis Group resources
5. News and other reporting
News sources with regular coverage of events in Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe news sources
Reports & articles by other organisations
6. Important documents and websites
Zimbabwe Legal Documents
Websites
7. Maps and geographical information
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8. Images of Zimbabwe
Operation Murambatsvina
