Guinea: The Junta Must Leave
17 November
François Grignon
The situation in Guinea remains alarming. Despite the negotiations in Ouagadougou and the build up of regional and international pressures, the junta seems like it would rather lead the country into a civil war than give up power. . The Ouagadougou negotiations enter a critical phase today; their agenda should be limited to the departure of the junta. A “National Unity Government” that allows the current military regime to stay in power would only increase the risks for the region. To prevent a catastrophe, ECOWAS and the United Nations should start preparing for an eventual military intervention.
Since Dadis Camara took power in December 2008, political tensions have constantly increased. They reached the point of no return on 28 September, when security forces executed demonstrators, killing 160 people and injuring 1700. Testimonies about the organization of the killings point towards a premeditated massacre: the military units that carried it out were already in position while officers issued orders at the stadium Since that day, security forces have led a terror campaign, using rape and torture as tools of repression.
Popular resentment grew against a junta that showed its determination to stay in power. In response, the junta’s leaders have paralyzed the democratic transition and blocked the creation of a National Transitional Council (Consiel national de transition CNT) an inclusive consultative body meant to over see the transition process. Opposition leaders became the target of harassment and arrests, and political discussions were banned in the national media. Given the situation, the union of opposition parties and civil society leaders, the “Forces Vives”, decided to suspend its dialogue with the junta.
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Guinée : La junte doit partir, ni plus ni moins
10 novembre 2009
François Grignon
La situation politique et sécuritaire de Guinée reste alarmante. Malgré les négociations ouvertes à Ouagadougou, et l’accumulation de pressions régionales et internationales, la junte ne semble pas vouloir accepter de quitter le pouvoir et est sans doute prête à prendre le risque de plonger le pays dans la guerre civile pour y rester. Les négociations à Ouagadougou entrent aujourd’hui dans une phase critique. Il est impératif que leur ordre du jour se limite au départ de la junte. Toute solution de « Gouvernement d’union nationale » qui laisse en place l’autorité militaire actuelle, ne ferait qu’aggraver les menaces qui pèsent sur le pays et la région. Afin d’éviter la catastrophe, la CEDEAO et les Nations unies doivent d’ors et déjà se préparer à une possible intervention militaire pour éviter le chaos.
Depuis que Dadis Camara s’est emparé du pouvoir en décembre 2008, les tensions politiques n’ont cessé de s’accroître dans le pays. Le 28 septembre, ces tensions ont atteint l’irréparable lorsque les forces de sécurité ont exécuté des manifestants, tuant 160 personnes et en blessant près de 1700. Les témoignages sur les préparatifs et l’organisation de la tuerie dans les minutes qui ont précédé l’ouverture du feu – positionnement des unités, ordres donnés à l’intérieur du stade par la chaine de commandement - laissent à penser qu’elle était préméditée. Ils ont ensuite mené une campagne de terreur sans précédent, usant du viol et de la torture comme outil de répression contre les partisans de l’opposition.
En réponse au mécontentement de la rue face aux signes évidents de sa volonté de s’enraciner au pouvoir, la junte avait déjà paralysé le processus de transition démocratique, et rejeté la création du Conseil national de transition, un comité consultatif inclusif destiné à contrôler ses décisions. Les opposants devinrent alors la cible de menaces et d’arrestations. Sur les médias nationaux, les discussions politiques étaient censurées. Au vu de la situation, l’union des partis politiques d’opposition et de la société civile, les ‘Forces Vives’, avait décidé de suspendre le dialogue avec la junte.
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Elements of a New Strategy to Disarm the LRA
6 November 2009
François Grignon
Last month, during the Great Lakes Contact Group meeting in Washington, the US government confirmed they had received a new shopping list of requests from the Ugandan government to help them hunt down the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). US military support to find an end to Joseph Kony’s murderous insurgency is definitely necessary. But supporting ill-conceived and poorly implemented Ugandan military operations in helpless countries of the region is not the solution.
The US should instead lead a coalition of the willing to provide the governments of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Southern Sudan, arnd the Central African Republic (CAR), the means and ability to restore state authority along their common borders, corner the LRA in progressively circumscribed areas of operation, and help Special Envoys of the UN and the region negotiate the disarmament of its commanders and combatants, as the LRA’s means of communication and ability at coordinating operations are being slowly curtailed.
Last December, the offensive of Ugandan military forces against the LRA in the Congo’s Garamba National Park failed to deliver Kony and scattered the movement along the common border of three countries (DRC, CAR and Sudan). It also resulted in over eight hundred civilian deaths, thousands injured and some 100,000 people displaced from their homes in retaliation attacks from the brutal insurgency. Since then, continuing skirmishes between Ugandan troops and the LRA, which stepped up its reprisals attacks against civilians, have dramatically worsened the humanitarian situation in the affected areas, producing a crisis similar to the Congo’s Kivus.
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Post-Apartheid South Africa and the World: A Bridge Over Troubled Waters?
16 October 2009
Donald Steinberg
The advent of Jacob Zuma as president of South Africa has launched a debate over that country’s global role. Foreign policy will never dominate South Africa’s national agenda in the face of slowing economic growth, broad social inequalities, and questions about the state of democracy and governance in the country. Still, many view Zuma’s presidency as a chance to reverse a recent pattern of standing up not for the abused and powerless of the world, but for the interests of leaders like indicted war criminal Omar al-Bashir in Sudan, authoritarian Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, and the military junta in Myanmar. Commenting on South Africa’s efforts to shield Myanmar from UN Security Council pressure in 2007, for example, Nobel Laureate Desmond Tutu said the action was “a betrayal of our own noble past,” adding that “the tyrannical military regime is gloating, and we sided with them.”
The World-View of Post-Apartheid South Africa
It was not supposed to be that way. When Nelson Mandela emerged from Victor Verster prison in February 1990, there was a feeling that South Africa’s transformation from apartheid to non-racial democracy could provide a great service to the region and beyond.
Economically, South Africa could be an engine of growth, providing markets, investment, and infrastructure to pull Africa out of poverty. Militarily, a modern, self-sufficient defence force could provide peacekeepers, distribute humanitarian aid, and facilitate the deployment of African forces to address African problems. Diplomatically, world-class negotiators could mediate the toughest disputes. A bastion of stability, South Africa could provide refuge for repressed people from elsewhere, just as the region had housed anti-apartheid exiles during the apartheid era.
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Nigeria needs to prevent another electoral debacle
1 October 2009
François Grignon
Nigeria and its international friends need to act urgently and concertedly to prevent another electoral disaster in 2011
Nigeria’s election reform process is faltering. The 2007 election was a disaster for the country, in more ways than one. Political manipulation by then President Olusegun Obasanjo, widespread fraud and poll-related violence eroded public confidence in the electoral process significantly, and undermined the legitimacy of the “winners” and their ability to govern effectively. As 2011 approaches, the importance of credible elections cannot be overstated. For the president, who had listed electoral reform at the top of his seven-point agenda, failure to deliver on his promise could be politically disastrous.
More importantly, for Nigeria, another failure in 2011 could do mortal damage to citizens’ faith in democracy and diminish the state’s authority and its ability to mediate and resolve the country’s many internal conflicts, not to mention further undermining its claims to democratic leadership in Africa and subverting its campaign for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on a visit to Nigeria back in August, the “lack of transparency and accountability has eroded the legitimacy of the government and contributed to the rise of groups that embrace violence and reject the authority of the state”. Rather than just sending another expensive electoral observation mission in 2011 to document the by then inevitable disaster, the international community needs to follow Clinton’s lead and make its concerns known now.
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Launching “On the African Peace-building Agenda”
1 October 2009
Today, the International Crisis Group launches a new blog, “On the African Peace-building Agenda”, offering frequent analysis and commentary on sub-Saharan African affairs from the perspective of conflict prevention and conflict resolution. The authors will be François Grignon, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director; Daniela Kroslak, Deputy Africa Program Director; and Fouad Hikmat, African Union and Sudan Special Advisor. Blog entries will be published in English, French and Arabic.
Given the success of Crisis Group’s first blog, “Solving the EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle”, which since its launch in February has become one of our most popular web pages, we feel the appetite for a similar blog on Africa will be strong.
The idea behind both these blogs is not to offer a quick yet forgettable statement on every event nor to be seen to jump into every public debate. The point is to offer considered analysis and well-reasoned discussion on major issues concerning violent conflict, offering ideas to avert it before it starts and end it once it begins. In this sense, Crisis Group considers these efforts in the tradition of the “slow blog”.
As always, we welcome your thoughts and suggestions on this blog and on our other outputs. You can contact us here.
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Up-to-date analysis and commentary on issues surrounding Sub-Saharan Africa by senior staff from Crisis Group's Africa Program.
Comments or questions? Contact Crisis Group's Communications Unit
Latest Crisis Group Africa reports:
Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents, Africa Report N°153, 4 September 2009
Chad: Escaping from the Oil Trap, Africa Briefing N°65, 26 August 2009
Somalia: The Trouble with Puntland, Africa Briefing N°64, 12 August 2009
Burundi: To Integrate the FNL Successfully, Africa Briefing N°63, 30 July 2009
Click here for all Crisis Group Africa reports
Latest Crisis Group op-eds and interviews:
"Repression and Violence Are a Danger to the Whole Region", Richard Moncrieff in The Independent, 30 September 2009
"Les FDLR doivent désarmer", François Grignon in Le Soir, 18 September 2009
"Le gouvernement tchadien est tombé dans le piège pétrolier", Daniela Kroslak in Rue89, 5 September 2009
More op-eds can be found under the media section
Background:
For in-depth conflict histories, see the individual country pages listed here
Click here for a database of CrisisWatch entries since September 2004 |
