CrisisWatch N°25, 1 September 2005

Eleven conflict situations around the world deteriorated in August 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. Iraq's divisions deepened as Kurdish and Shiite representatives submitted a draft constitution to parliament over the objections of Sunni Arab leaders. Coordinated detonation of over 400 small bombs caused widespread turmoil in Bangladesh. Haiti saw further violence and lawlessness. Iran's resumption of uranium conversion activities brought new tensions to its nuclear stand-off with the U.S. and the European Union. In Ecuador, the government imposed a state of emergency after mass protests over the distribution of oil revenues brought production to a halt. And the ex-rebel Forces Nouvelles withdrew from Cote d'Ivoire's peace process, saying they would not take part in 30 October elections. The situations in the Maldives, North Caucasus (Russia), Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone and Sri Lanka also deteriorated last month.

Five conflict situations showed improvement in August 2005. Indonesia welcomed a historic peace agreement between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the government. Israel's unilateral pull-out from Gaza was marked by less than expected resistance from settlers, and restraint from Palestinian militant groups. In Chad, the government and the Northern Movement for Democracy and Justice rebels agreed to end seven-year hostilities. The situations also improved in Liberia and Western Sahara.

For September 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Afghanistan and Iraq as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. No new Conflict Resolution Opportunities were identified for September.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

AUGUST 2005 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Bangladesh, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Maldives, North Caucasus (Russia), Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka

Improved Situations
Chad, Indonesia, Israel/Occupied Territories, Liberia, Western Sahara

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India (non-Kashmir), Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

SEPTEMBER 2005 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Afghanistan, Iraq

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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