Conflict history: Afghanistan

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Head of State: President Hamid Karzai, June 2002- (Chairman of Afghan Interim Authority from December 2001, indirectly elected President Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan June 2002, popularly elected President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, October 2004).

Current Afghan boundaries determined 1893 treaty with Britain, splitting Pashtun ethnic group between Afghanistan and British India, later permanent factor in Afghan-Pakistan relations.

Ethnic groups present including: Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Aimak, and Turkmen. Afghan independence granted under Treaty of Rawalpindi 1919 after long period of struggle for influence between Britain and Russia over 19th century. Britain retained influence and interest until independence of India and Pakistan 1947. Afghanistan became subject of both U.S. and Soviet bids for influence after 1945.

Political instability from late 1960s followed by coups in 1973 and 1978. Latter coup led by Communist People’s Democratic Party installed Nur Mohammed Taraki as president, Hafizullah Amin as deputy. Increased role of Soviets in Afghan army and government followed; Taraki signed friendship treaty with Moscow 1978. Power struggle between Taraki and Amin on background of rural conservative revolt led to Amin replacing Taraki, near collapse of Afghan army and consequent Soviet invasion December 1979. Amin executed and replaced by Soviet-backed Babrak Karmal 1980.

Afghanistan became “hot” theatre in Cold War, with U.S. backing conservative resistance to tie down Soviet army. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran similarly backed anti-regime forces for religious, strategic and political reasons. Success of Soviet use of Hind helicopter-gunships and special forces against mujahedin mitigated by U.S. Stinger ground-to-air missiles from 1986. Mohammad Najibullah replaced Karmal 1987, becoming president after promulgation of new republican constitution by loya jirga. 1988 agreement between Afghanistan, U.S., Pakistan and USSR allowed for full Soviet withdrawal 1989. USSR and U.S. agreed to stop support 1991.

Najibullah regime fell 1992, replaced by ethnic Tajik Burhannudin Rabbani. However, mujahadin alliance increasingly fragmented by ethnic and power rivalries marking Afghanistan’s further descent into warlordism. 1994, factional fighting, including indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas in Kabul destroyed much of capital, killed some 25,000. Mostly Pashtun Taliban emerged as serious rival to Rabbani regime 1993-94 with Pakistani assistance. Led by Mullah Omar, Taliban seized Kabul September 1996, installing radical Islamist regime recognised 1997 by only Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirate (CHK) and Pakistan. United Front (Northern Alliance), mainly non-Pashtun opposition coalition retained strongholds in northeastern Afghanistan, formed under authority of Ahmad Shah Masood.

Having fought there 1980s Osama bin Laden took refuge in Afghanistan from mid-1990s, both benefactor and guest of Taliban. Presence led to August 1998 U.S. cruise missile attack on Afghanistan following U.S. embassy bombings east Africa and UN-imposed measures 1999.

With Northern Alliance close to total defeat, commander Masood assassinated 9 September 2001, two days before attack on New York, Washington by al-Qaeda terrorists. International alliance under U.S. leadership sought overthrow of Taliban following refusal to hand over bin Laden, aiding opposition forces taking Kabul November 2001. December 2001 Bonn agreement created Afghan Interim Authority, led by Hamid Karzai. Fall of Kandahar signalled fall of Taliban December 2001, but Mullah Omar and bin Laden remained at large.

Foreign peacekeeping troops began arriving January 2002 under UN-mandated International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF). NATO assumed control of ISAF from August 2003 followed by an expansion from capital Kabul to north (2004), west (2005), south and east (2006); present forces: 41,700. This includes Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), small civil-military forces aimed at kick-starting reconstruction and security in the regions along with bolstering central government authority. U.S. leads continued counter-terrorism operations under separate Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) mission, answering direct to CENTCOM.

Bonn process saw a new moderate Islamic constitution adopted January 2004 following loya jirga. Popular election of President Hamid Karzai October 2004 and National Assembly and Provincial Councils in September 2005. Electoral system excluded political parties raising fears whether legislature can be robust arm of state.

Failure to tackle human rights abusers and war criminals of past eras sees discredited figures of past embedded in every level of administration. This has disillusioned the population and culture of impunity an ongoing source of instability. Parliamentarians attempted to pass an amnesty law for war crimes in early 2007, the exact status of which remains unclear.

A Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) programme decommissioned some 60,000 former combatants on Ministry of Defence rolls by June 2005. Mid-2005, follow-up programme Disbandment of Illegal Armed Groups (DIAG) began, now in the face of insurgency all but moribund.

New Afghan National Army (ANA) due to grow to 70,000 by 2011. Increasingly cooperating with international forces in operations and has been seen as nascent institutional successes in post-Taliban era although still a long way to go. Over 40,000 Afghan National Police (ANP) have received training but remain largely a source of insecurity and fear. The judicial sector is a major area of neglect.

Opium cultivation and trafficking dominate economy, at record levels both a source and symptom of ongoing instability. Afghanistan now accounts for 93 per cent of world supply; opium trade involves public officials at every level and also provides funding for the Taliban and insurgent groups.

January 2006, the international community renewed its commitment to Afghanistan for 5 years in London with the Afghanistan Compact setting benchmarks in Development, Governance and Security with counter-narcotics a cross-cutting issue, but progress has been limited.

Afghanistan’s post-conflict recovery remains precarious. The ongoing cross border insurgency in the southern and eastern provinces while not large in numbers sees around half the country off limits to government outreach and development assistance outside district centres. The Taliban is the main driver of the insurgency but other groups include Hizb-i Islami led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the major benefactor of US aid during the mujahidin years. Insurgents have proved adept at exploiting local fissures and disenfranchisement with much less of an ideological following. The last two years have seen a dramatic increase in tactics such as suicide bombing and attacks on soft targets such as police – with an apparent growing indifference for civilian casualties.

updated December 2007

For further information see Crisis Group reports and briefings on Afghanistan. The CrisisWatch database provides a report on monthly conflict developments for Afghanistan since September 2003.