Conflict history: Zimbabwe

New Search - Map

Head of State: President Robert Mugabe, 1987- (re-elected 1996, 2002, 2008 unconfirmed)

Zimbabwe’s ongoing crisis dates to 1965 when Ian Smith, leader of Southern Rhodesia, issued Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) from Britain, imposing white-minority rule. Action prompted international sanctions and guerrilla war which, by 1979, claimed some 36,000 lives and displaced some 1.5 million. Britain brokered 1979 peace deal involving government, Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) and Joshua Nkomo's Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU), culminating in Lancaster House Agreement. Agreement secured ceasefire between parties and set out steps towards legal independence, including Independence Constitution guaranteeing majority rule and reserving 20% of parliamentary seats for whites.

In 1980 elections, Mugabe won 57 seats of 80 reserved for blacks, becoming Zimbabwe’s PM and Africa’s most feted leader, presiding over continent’s second largest manufacturing base. Rhodesian Front won all 20 seats reserved for whites. In early 1980s, Mugabe unleashed brutal repression in Matabeleland and Midlands against minority Ndebele population that supported rival ZAPU party, dispatching North Korean-trained brigades. Five-year crackdown killed over 20,000 mainly unarmed civilians - episode known in Zimbabwe as “Gukurahundi”. ZAPU coerced 1987 into merger with ZANU creating ZANU-PF, paving way for constitutional change giving Mugabe executive presidential powers and turning country into de facto one-party state. Attempts to create de jure one-party state failed 1990, but Mugabe secured re-election 1996.

President lost February 2000 constitutional referendum – first time people voted against regime in clear protest. Mugabe responded with repression and violence. Forcible seizures of mostly white-owned land by ZANU liberation war veterans – beginning late 1990s – spiked after election defeat, crippling economy and leading to chronic shortage of basic commodities and services from 2000. But Mugabe defeated newly formed Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition in June 2000 parliamentary elections, though missing two-thirds majority needed to change constitution. Seriously flawed elections held March 2002 (presidential) and 2005 (parliamentary): Mugabe resorted to using state machinery, war veterans and youth militias to intimidate, suppress dissent, gag media, manipulate food aid and violate human rights. Denounced by international observers as neither free nor fair, elections nevertheless endorsed by South Africa and, in 2005, by AU as well.

Zimbabwe left Commonwealth December 2003 following indefinite suspension agreed by triumvirate of Nigeria, Kenya and Australia. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai faced on-and-off trial on charges of plotting to assassinate Mugabe. Further sedition charges laid after failed 2003 general strike. In context of rapidly depreciating currency and 85% unemployment, government launched “Operation Murambatsvina” in 2005 to forcibly clear urban slums. Operation deprived over 18% of population of homes or livelihoods and badly damaged informal sector, the lifeline for many. MDC split November 2005 over decision to boycott poll for newly-formed upper house of parliament, Senate.

After brutal government crackdown on opposition in March 2007, the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) mandated South African President Mbeki to mediate between government and MDC – aiming to secure new constitution and free and fair conditions for elections. Talks stalled January 2008, when Mugabe called snap polls for March despite MDC’s call for postponement until new constitution adopted.

Ex-finance minister and SADC head Makoni announced candidacy on 5 February in first open challenge to Mugabe from within ruling party since independence. Arthur Mutambara put his breakaway MDC faction behind ruling party renegade. Makoni’s limited grassroots support and late entry into presidential race meant campaign failed to gather momentum, but challenge left Mugabe unsure of allies.

On 29 March 2008, Zimbabwe held combined presidential and parliamentary elections flawed by pre-poll manipulation, though campaigning relatively open and Tsvangirai able to hold large rallies. Only “friendly” countries and institutions invited to observe polls and most western media barred. Despite skewed playing field, Zimbabwe’s people clearly signalled rejection of status quo: for first time, ZANU-PF lost control of parliament to MDC, which made unprecedented in-roads into rural areas.

Outcome of presidential poll heavily disputed, with MDC’s Tsvangirai claiming outright victory over Mugabe. Electoral commission withheld results for over a month, while ZANU-PF launched countrywide campaign of violence and intimidation. On 2 May, electoral officials finally announced results: Tsvangirai received 47.9% against Mugabe’s 43.2%, warranting run-off. Earlier, the two MDC factions led by Tsvangiriai and Mutambara agreed to reunite after 2005 split. Tsvangirai has yet to confirm whether he will contest run-off – demanding further elections be internationally supervised and state violence halted. While current political scene uncertain, Mugabe and his allies show few signs of accepting defeat. Further violence threatens as ZANU-PF hardliners seek to retain grip on power.

Zimbabweans face economic turmoil and corruption, food shortages and collapse of vital services. HIV/AIDS among adults stands at over 20%. In April 2008 annual inflation stood at over 165,000% – the world’s highest by a margin – making day-to-day life for Zimbabweans increasingly difficult. Up a third of population are thought to have fled over recent years. Remittances from growing diaspora have become a lifeline for many remaining. The U.S. and EU continue sanctions against members of ZANU-PF regime.

Updated May 2008

For further information see Crisis Group reports and briefings on Zimbabwe. The CrisisWatch database provides a report on monthly conflict developments for Zimbabwe since September 2003.